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Author Topic: Bull to Bear and verse visa - have you switched camps?  (Read 1140 times)
ElectricMucus
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November 27, 2011, 05:19:31 AM
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When I first bought in I was fairly bullish, the logarithmic chart trendline was still posted around here and arguments that bitcoin might/will fall further were dismissed.

Now the situation is different have left this trendline behind us and the future is uncertain. I lost some of my value and became bearish.
I made that up with bitcoinica and are now fairly (or actually very well) above what I did put in initially. But it is denominated in USD not BTC.

The 7 day rise made me think about reevaluating my position but since I gladly learned how to read technical indicators I saw that a wall was forming at around 2.5 and I went short again.
But those indicators are now kind of inconclusive (only works when things are less chaotic with higher market depth.)

I really was beginning to think this may be the market reversal but yesterday and today are making me seriously doubt that. I think it is very much possible that we slowly creep down again, accelerating and ending in a further crash, possibly below 2. Things would be so much easier without that huge buywall which would make me think that the was a genuine rally not just pushed up prices.
But since that is not the case we have to consider the possibility that the wall could poof at any time, now I would really like to think that prices wouldn't drop below it in under a week.

But I can't find a reason.  The only thing that's left is the 7 day rise itself which isn't really enough for me since half of the days were dojis (opening and close price nearly equal)


Ok that's my standpoint.  Have you switched camps during time and why?
Why switch now?

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November 27, 2011, 05:21:14 AM
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I never sleep. Where do I camp?  Huh

Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 27, 2011, 06:16:00 AM
 #3

When I first bought in I was fairly bullish, the logarithmic chart trendline was still posted around here and arguments that bitcoin might/will fall further were dismissed.

Now the situation is different have left this trendline behind us and the future is uncertain. I lost some of my value and became bearish.
I made that up with bitcoinica and are now fairly (or actually very well) above what I did put in initially. But it is denominated in USD not BTC.

The 7 day rise made me think about reevaluating my position but since I gladly learned how to read technical indicators I saw that a wall was forming at around 2.5 and I went short again.
But those indicators are now kind of inconclusive (only works when things are less chaotic with higher market depth.)

I really was beginning to think this may be the market reversal but yesterday and today are making me seriously doubt that. I think it is very much possible that we slowly creep down again, accelerating and ending in a further crash, possibly below 2. Things would be so much easier without that huge buywall which would make me think that the was a genuine rally not just pushed up prices.
But since that is not the case we have to consider the possibility that the wall could poof at any time, now I would really like to think that prices wouldn't drop below it in under a week.

But I can't find a reason.  The only thing that's left is the 7 day rise itself which isn't really enough for me since half of the days were dojis (opening and close price nearly equal)


Ok that's my standpoint.  Have you switched camps during time and why?
Why switch now?

Just suspend disbelief and go with the trend. Be a cheerleader, or be a naysayer. It doesn't really matter. I think we're mostly sitting in this subforum just out of interest in where it's going to go either way.


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November 27, 2011, 07:20:13 AM
 #4

Time scale?

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November 27, 2011, 03:06:58 PM
 #5

Over the past couple weeks, I started to think that drops below $2 were very possible.  I started buying at $2.5, then $2.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see drops to $2 again.

Maybe even below $2.  However, I think the type of person like myself, will start buying again.  What "type" of buyer am I?  I am someone who is mining with a cost around $1 a bitcoin, so I will buy bitcoins as they approach $1.  I'm still a bull (obviously) long term, but wouldn't blink an eye if we his $1 before the end of the year.

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November 27, 2011, 04:40:40 PM
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Time scale?
That depends.

Another way to put it will it go below 2 or not?

Also netrin your spike to above 2.6 seems to be late.. Wink

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November 27, 2011, 05:18:01 PM
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Also netrin your spike to above 2.6 seems to be late.. Wink

What do you mean?

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ElectricMucus
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November 27, 2011, 05:41:03 PM
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Also netrin your spike to above 2.6 seems to be late.. Wink

What do you mean?

Your Elliot analysis, there is a little upwards movement right now which has trouble getting stream... but lets see.

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November 27, 2011, 05:55:01 PM
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Oh this BS little triangle? I think the ten day rally is running out of steam. But any numb-nut with too much money and premature ejaculate disorder can trigger more than 10% in any arbitrary direction. Maybe they cunningly try to trigger shorts, I don't know, but the hourly scale is unpredictable none the less.

I do believe we'll hit $2 again and perhaps 70% lower still. I also expect bitcoin will hit triple digits. I don't try to predict when.

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November 27, 2011, 06:05:58 PM
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Oh this BS little triangle? I think the ten day rally is running out of steam. But any numb-nut with too much money and premature ejaculate disorder can trigger more than 10% in any arbitrary direction. Maybe they cunningly try to trigger shorts, I don't know, but the hourly scale is unpredictable none the less.
You may be right, I use bitcoinica and always watch for opportunities to snatch those less careful pumps Wink

I do believe we'll hit $2 again and perhaps 70% lower still. I also expect bitcoin will hit triple digits. I don't try to predict when.

I too, but that also could be because hyperinflation in fiat currencies..

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 27, 2011, 06:14:55 PM
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Look familiar? Hint:

I think BTC and EUR have about an equal chance of surviving the next three years, but I don't think both of them will fail or be replaced. It'd make an interesting bet. I also believe a bitcoin will first buy a dozen cups of coffee than that a dozen bitcoins will buy one cup.

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November 27, 2011, 09:43:34 PM
 #12

I'm mildly bullish at this point, and have been slowly building up a long position the last couple weeks.  I was actually a bit disappointed that my Friday bid at $2.41 never got executed over the weekend, which I suppose is as good of an indicator of my sentiment as anything.

I think that confidence in the $2 price floor, regardless of the huge bidwall, has drastically reduced panic selling.  Panic selling is the shorter's best friend, and the lack of panic selling means I don't recommend shorting.  If bitcoin shoots up to $4, I'd short it until it returns to $3 or so - there are a lot of miners that are involuntarily hoarding coins mined above their cost of production, and there will be strong downward pressure if bitcoin rises again.

I'm thinking that the big player that re-joined the game with >200k btc was a benevolent player.  They soaked up a few hundred thousand dollars by buying out the whole mtgox depth chart from $3 to $2, then stuck it back up as a currency backstop.  Kudos, mystery player, for establishing stability in this turbulent domain.

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November 29, 2011, 10:50:52 PM
 #13

I'm a bull turned bear turned bull. But actually, I only temporarily became a bear because I noticed there was a bubble. Strongly so though, I sold all BTC I could sell back then. But now, my old sentiment is returning clear as can be.

I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a great project, one of the greatest the world currently has to offer. Not that I particularly like the code, the dynamics, or any other detail; I think many people could've done better than magical Satoshi. But that is not so important. The basic idea is right, and there is a community supporting it. And I know there exist extensions of Bitcoin that, once implemented, solve most of its current shortcomings.

So, from my perspective, current price is a joke. It only works because people don't get it. I speculate on how exactly people are systematically stupid so I can acquire as many coins as possible. Though I must admit that if too many people don't get it, the whole project might fail. In that case, at least I did my best trying to stabilize the beast.
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November 29, 2011, 11:51:04 PM
 #14

I don't believe people have to get it. What most people mean when they don't 'get it' is simply that they don't 'see it'. People don't get most things but seeing is believing.

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