David Rosenber: Bitcoin is in a 'massive bubble'

[exstasie]

David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.

In fairness though, Bitcoin's future economic viability is purely theoretical. We're all just hoping it works. Right now, Bitcoin is extremely inflationary, and that's why miners have such a strong interest in securing the network. In the future when the mining subsidy is no longer relevant, the mining economy may look very different, and accordingly so may the security and viability of the network.

He's not wrong when he says the supply limit can't be changed. Consider things like the DAO fork in Ethereum, and then consider that lack of mining incentives could be an existential threat to Bitcoin in the future. If so, then a hard fork that further inflates the 21M coin supply is a real possibility.

We're all just theorizing when you get down to it.......

[Smartprofit]

David Rosenberg is wrong.  Many well-known economists are theoreticians.  They know economic theory well, but they don't have enough imagination to understand the meaning of Bitcoin.

In fairness though, Bitcoin's future economic viability is purely theoretical. We're all just hoping it works. Right now, Bitcoin is extremely inflationary, and that's why miners have such a strong interest in securing the network. In the future when the mining subsidy is no longer relevant, the mining economy may look very different, and accordingly so may the security and viability of the network.

He's not wrong when he says the supply limit can't be changed. Consider things like the DAO fork in Ethereum, and then consider that lack of mining incentives could be an existential threat to Bitcoin in the future. If so, then a hard fork that further inflates the 21M coin supply is a real possibility.

We're all just theorizing when you get down to it.......

Yes, we are fantasizing ... However, the rise in bitcoin prices over the past 10 years is also fantastic!

Let's pretend that Bitcoin is the world's reserve currency ... In this case, mining isn't just about making a profit.  In this case, full nodes and control over Bitcoin mining is a precondition for governments and large corporations to issue money (If I host a full Bitcoin node, I have the option to issue my own money).

At present, states are interested in controlling the Internet.  In the future, it is possible that large corporations and states will seek to control the mining of bitcoins.  This will be as important as having your own army and control over the oil fields.  

Bitcoin can become a strategic resource.  This is its value.  There are not so many common human values ​​in the world.  Bitcoin is one of them.

[AndySt]

It all comes down to questions of terminology. If in a month the price of bitcoin falls by one and a half to two times to the current level, then some experts will shout about the burst bubble, and other experts will talk about the correction that inevitably had to happen after such a big rise. As for the limit of the issue of bitcoin in the amount of 21 million, I want to say that bitcoin is open software and after a while the project can fork into branches, one of which will allow the release of an additional number of coins. So we can say that David Rosenberg is right and wrong at the same time.

[LogitechMouse]

He might be an "economist" but what he is saying is just like what an average Joe is doing.
He is just speculating base on what he sees. Nothing more.

Regarding the creator that he is saying, it doesn't matter anymore because what matters is we are using Satoshi's invention. Regarding on how it is mined, yes maybe we can share some basic things regarding Bitcoin. He might be true that people right now are asking ways on how to buy Bitcoin especially those newbies but to tell that it is in a massive bubble?? I don't think that it really is. Does he think that the Bitcoin right now will have the same fate as the Tulip or the 2018 big crash . I don't think that it will happen although corrections are inevitable, it will not be the same as the previous bubbles.

[Psynthax]

Everything is bubble nowadays. Some says stock market is in bubble, same goes for real estate and now bitcoin maybe next crypto as a whole is in bubble when the market goes for bull run.

I'm no expert but in my opinion market correction is by no mean a bubble as long as it could reach its ATH within few years like Bitcoin did and he said that the bitcoin trend right now is just classic follow-the-herd and I definitely disagree with that. There's reason why so many online merchants out there starting to accept BTC for payment. It's not as useless as he pictures it.

[Lorence.xD]

Everyone on this thread is suddenly expert on bitcoin and the economy. Can someone counter argue the economist claim about bubble without being biased from either side. Pretty shitty seeing that you all circle jerk about this guy is wrong, this one too is wrong. No one seems to respect the people with different point of view. Again, counter argue the claim without saying "bitcoin is the future", "he/she doesn't know better". This one person seems to get it.

Of course it's in a bubble, it's naive to think that we won't have a massive crash because "this time is different - we have institutional investors". But this doesn't mean that it's bad to invest in it, you can try to do some short-term trading and exit long before the crash, you can try to buy dips and sell them quickly, and dips will happen because there's always corrections in the bull market. Bitcoin is a risky investment, but the risk is justified, so the only thing investors should worry about it so not overexpose themself to it.

[aoluain]

Rosenberg might be correct that a lot of investors now
have a very basic understanding of Bitcoin, and some
none at all and as has been already mentioned not all
gold investors know how it is extracted and processed.

But, big investors now are not investing for next year or
the year after, they are looking 10, 20 years out or at the
very shortest 5 years.

There is a lot which Rosenberg doesnt say, like how the US
and EU are currently print more money as a stimulus for their
economies and how that effects the value of peoples assets. His only focus is supply.

[coolbaughandrew]

This is the best part of the interview

You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it

I bet Rosenber knows nothing about Satoshi and his decision to stay anonymous.

[vaultman]

He did not bring any facts to his words, but there are also no facts from the side of the creators of bitcoin. Perhaps bitcoin will follow the path of ethereum staking, no one knows this, so it should not make such statements about what is a bubble and what is not. I am sure that there will be nothing bad with bitcoin after the last block is mined, especially before that period is very long, and in any case, the creators will come up with something.

[cabron]

He did not bring any facts to his words, but there are also no facts from the side of the creators of bitcoin. Perhaps bitcoin will follow the path of ethereum staking, no one knows this, so it should not make such statements about what is a bubble and what is not. I am sure that there will be nothing bad with bitcoin after the last block is mined, especially before that period is very long, and in any case, the creators will come up with something.

Satoshi being anonymous is even more of a good thing than bad as how it sounded to him.

It seem to me like there is a Jaime Dimon every time there is a bullrun going on. This is like they have a barking dog everytime just resulting to more people left by this train.

[el kaka22]

People will claim it is bubble as long as it goes up, and people will claim they were right as long as it crashes down as well, but they do not realize that everything in traditional markets have the same type of increases and crashes as well. If we were to say that stock market is a bubble, we would be sort of right, look at the mortgage crisis of 2008 for example, before it crashed it was so high that everyone got a house, they even remortgaged their houses to get cheap money because interests were low as well, but after 2008 it crashed and it hurt everyone, not just in USA where it happened but it hurt even other nations as well.

So long story short if we want to call something bubble, we can call everything that grew big and crashed a bubble. I think bitcoin is a solid investment, that has good days and bad days and good days are more frequent than bad days.

[jaberwock]

People will claim it is bubble as long as it goes up, and people will claim they were right as long as it crashes down as well, but they do not realize that everything in traditional markets have the same type of increases and crashes as well. If we were to say that stock market is a bubble, we would be sort of right, look at the mortgage crisis of 2008 for example, before it crashed it was so high that everyone got a house, they even remortgaged their houses to get cheap money because interests were low as well, but after 2008 it crashed and it hurt everyone, not just in USA where it happened but it hurt even other nations as well.

There are tons of people who missed on the bitcoin bull and they will always call it a bubble because there are some people like me who keep saying "I wish I knew it better and kept my bitcoins" or "I wish I bought a lot back in the day" but there are also some people who says "I can never be wrong, this will die and crash and burn" because accepting otherwise would mean they have made a mistake, if they bought early and sold now they would have made a lot of money and they didn't do that so it was a mistake not to buy bitcoin early on, and they can't be wrong, they are never wrong, being wrong is not in their nature so this must be some sort of bubble. Those people who could never accept defeat and never agree that they were wrong about something will keep on saying bad stuff about bitcoin until they die, because there is no reason for them to accept they were wrong.

[davis196]

"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."

I like the term "follow-the-nerd".I guess that Google,Microsoft,Facebook and Tesla are the same "follow-the-nerd" scams.After all,their founders and CEOs are all nerds.
The questions about who developed Bitcoins and how BTC is mined are already answered,but this guy is just too lazy to read and too occupied with his own theories.
Yes,the Bitcoin price is in a price bubble,but the same applies to almost every other financial asset in the world.Aren't stocks in a price bubble?Isn't gold in a price bubble?

[bryant.coleman]

Bubbles don't last for more than a few months. Even the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000 lasted for only around 2 years. Here in the case of Bitcoin, despite overwhelming adversities, the innovation has survived for 13 years. And chances are that it will survive for at least a few more decades. Now you don't call something that is around for many decades as a bubble. If that is the case, then every single investment asset will be termed as a bubble by David Rosenberg.

[smyslov]

Economist David Rosenberg told Bloomberg he believes bitcoin is in a bubble and investors don't understand supply dynamics of the cryptocurrency.
"You speak to most people that are asking me to put money in bitcoin, they can't even tell you who the person was that developed it or even how it's actually mined," the Rosenberg Research chief economist said. "It's just a classic, follow-the-herd, extremely crowded trade. It's in a massive bubble."

Obvious David Rosenberg do no tknow anything about Bitcoin, he did not do any research so he is left in the dark understanding what Bitcoin is and how it is mine, problem with this people is, they FUD and post negative about Bitcoin when in the first place they lack knowledge on how and why was created, they are embarrassing themselves.

[ChiBitCTy]

I would argue that his points are the same for most investments.  Ask people about their retirement plans and what they are invested in and how it works/what makes up that fund, etc and they will have an equal clueless answer for you.  Economist are smart dudes but it doesn't make them great financial advisors or great for financial advice.  It's similar to Warren Buffet stating that bitcoin is worthless..the guy is an investing genius but he also has his short sided biases.  He has never known much about technology period, and has even stated as such that he doesn't understand how bitcoin works.  He's wrong, period and he's biased.  Economist can be just the same.

[Hamphser]

I would argue that his points are the same for most investments.  Ask people about their retirement plans and what they are invested in and how it works/what makes up that fund, etc and they will have an equal clueless answer for you.  Economist are smart dudes but it doesn't make them great financial advisors or great for financial advice.  It's similar to Warren Buffet stating that bitcoin is worthless..the guy is an investing genius but he also has his short sided biases.  He has never known much about technology period, and has even stated as such that he doesn't understand how bitcoin works.  He's wrong, period and he's biased.  Economist can be just the same.

No one is perfect!

Even if you are a popular fella came from traditional investment but doesnt mean that you do have all the scope of things that turns out that you do know everything.
You would really be making yourself look like a fool when your words turns opposite against you and those supporters will really be just seeing you as a big troll into this market.
They can call bubble all they want yet this had been a common judgement specially into those institutional investors out there

Sooner or later they would changed up their minds and will really be reconsidering on diving to this market instead.

[sheenshane]

It really is funny to hear those statements from an economist.

IMO, you can smell that there’s an agenda behind it.  But he has a point when he mentioned the part on how Bitcoin has been developed and might the anonymous identity really is grey.  However, I really find it hilarious when he stated about the mining process.  Just like wait, you’re an economist, you do a complex process, you should know how the system works and study it.

There are some points that I tend to agree with him and he was right, probably those investors now didn't think about the long term investment, they want a quick profit, they just only know the basic of how Bitcoin will work.  But they don't deeply understand the whole system.

[AjithBtc]

These economists are much connected to the financial systems and weren't knowledged about the technology associated development and progress. This is why the economist hasn't got a clear information about mining process as well as about the flawless functioning of the network. Whenever something is bullish these people frame this as bubble to create panic mind among the people who are already in fear.

[Sirait]

^ bullish Bitcoin in 2017 was a bubble, but bullish this time is different. The price of Bitcoin is slowly rising, accompanied by a lot of positive news from large companies that are getting interested in Bitcoin, hence the opinion that Bitcoin is a massive bubble is very wrong.