London went full lockdown

[mindrust]

Tier 4 restrictions may be in place for a “couple of months”, the Health Secretary has said, because keeping the new coronavirus variant under control until the vaccine is rolled out will be “very difficult”.

In England, Boris Johnson effectively cancelled Christmas for almost 18 million people in London, south-eastern and eastern England as the region was put into a new two-week lockdown from Sunday.

Matt Hancock said infections in the areas placed under Tier 4 have “absolutely rocketed in the last few days”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-tier-4-london-christmas-cancelled-lockdown/

Different sources I have read also report that the virus has mutated lately and infecting/killing young people too.

On Sunday, the UK introduced strict new measures amid a soaring Covid-19 infection rate caused by a mutated strain. More than 24,000 new cases are being reported daily in the UK.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/transport/london-lockdown-tier-4-measures-mean-cancelled-trips-for-these-uae-travellers-1.1132062

And guess what, many Londoners are not happy with these decisions and leaving the city...

[franky1]

no the new mutation is not more dangerous..

there are actually something like 4000 strains of covid19.

what they are fnding is in some communities certain strains pass on more then others due to the human ignorance of respecting advice.(londoers being told they are the source of latest large cluster. so told to stay home. but instead decide to get on trains and leave the city(facepalm))

..
lets word it another way.
its easy to identify humans vs apes right?
wel within the easy identification of humans. there are subset mutations of blonde hair ancestry and ginger hair ancestry. and brown hair ancestry.. right?
nothing in human genes makes any haircolour more of less sex addictive than each other.
but following the generations you end up seeing more area's filled with gingers(north) and light/dark hair in the south

this is not due to gene risk of higher pregnancy. but in human movement and mingling

what is found is londoners are ignoring the rules so the strain in the london population is spreading more then a strain imported from the netherlands. or the strain in the cornwall community
all due to the people passing it around obeying or disobeying the rules

for instance the strain in cornwall is not passing around much due to people actually staying home more in cornwall than londoners. it is not becasue the cornwall strain is a safer mutation.

back to human analogy
however overall a person from cornwall vs a londoner might have subtle differences. but overall can be easily identified still as a english human. which is why its not a threat to the vaccine.

a massive change would need to occur to confuse the immune system of vaccinated people. such as if londoners had mixed species relations with their pets, making a non complete human hybrid

so far the mutations are so subtle that the 'spike protein' still has enough identifiers to know the difference between all covid strains vs say a new hybrid

the only threat is cross-species mutations. suck as the the news of the camels in egypt and the mink in netherlands. where by it completely mutates in a different direction in mink than it would in the human-human strains. and then if later the mink strain re-entered human population. then those hybrids would not be the same as covid19 subtle strains..

..
anyway all the news about the london strain is showing that more people are getting infected due to londoners disobeying the rules. meaning londoners cannot complain/blame other area's importing the virus into london and it is infact londoners themselves spreading it amungst themselves.
if it was imported from other areas visiting london then the numbers of strains of the london strain would be diluted due to the amount of imports.

yep they actually do use the strains to trace the path a infection follows and can work out where a strain began and if its 'domestic' or 'imported'

this is why they dont want londoners exporting their strain. so they lockdown restricts movements out of the area.
if it was an imported strain. they would shut down the airports and roads into london

..
they use these strain identifiers to work out contact tracing. for instance a strain in a university if that shows many university people are mingling too much and passing it around by disobeying the rules. they can then see the university strain becomes the most majority strain in an area. and decide to restrict students movement while still letting other clusters in retailer remain open because not many are mingling around retail stores.. or the opposite if analysis shows the opposite occurances

they can see via contact tracing and strain analysis that some clusters of high cases can be traced back via those infected visiting certain pubs one month. and another cluster another month via getting it from their kids and thus from schools. which can show why one months pubs are closed and another month schools are.

they can then use this analysis to also try to predict where it will spread to next. by looking for patterns of behavior.
EG micro analysis shutting down a factory if a couple employees have it to stop it spreading to all employees
EG if it then did spread to all employees by not shutting down the factory. then they would shut down the town
EG macro analysis shutting down london to stop the mass of london cases then exporting to other area's

[Cnut237]

what they are fnding is in some communities certain strains pass on more then others

Yes. This new strain is more dangerous because it is more transmissible. This increases the R number, the number of people on average that each infected person will themselves infect. It's the R number that determines the rate of increase (or, if <1, decrease) in new cases. A strain that is as severe, but is 70% more transmissible, is a big deal.

[franky1]

what they are fnding is in some communities certain strains pass on more then others

Yes. This new strain is more dangerous because it is more transmissible. This increases the R number, the number of people on average that each infected person will themselves infect. It's the R number that determines the rate of increase (or, if <1, decrease) in new cases. A strain that is as severe, but is 70% more transmissible, is a big deal.

the new strain does not have gene base code that makes it more infectious.
its just out of all the different strains. the one in london is passing around more in london than the one in cornwal. because PEOPLE in london are more stupid and ignorant about the rules than in cornwall

its the PEOPLE mingling thats causing there to be such a high count of the london strain.. its not the strain itself jumping around at 4 metres as oppose to 2metres
londoners are not respecting the 2 metres so more PEOPLE standing at 1m will get the virus more.

its..   people caused

think about it. to get anywhere in london cant be done by people in their own cars due to all the congestion zones. so PEOPLE end up sharing cabs or sharing train carriages.
al the london protests and such..

in cornwall people have their own cars and shops are more spread out so it doesnt cause an overcrowding of people in one street. there is no large political powerhouse in cornwall so not as many protest mingling of large populations

the cornwall strain vs the london strain are no safer or dangerous. they are the same transmisability base code.
its the analysis that london has more spread within their own community due to the excess mingling in that community. and it just means that londoners cannot blame tourists or commuter from other places in the country bringing cases into london.. and its just londoners not caring abut personal space within their community

[Tzupy]

The new strain B.1.1.7 has acquired several important nucleotide changes and deletion mutations.

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations

Conclusion
We report a rapidly growing lineage in the UK associated with an unexpectedly large number of genetic changes including in the receptor-binding domain and associated with the furin cleavage site. Given (i) the experimentally-predicted and plausible phenotypic consequences of some of these mutations, (ii) their unknown effects when present in combination, and (iii) the high growth rate of B.1.1.7 in the UK, this novel lineage requires urgent laboratory characterisation and enhanced genomic surveillance worldwide.

Edit: sorry, only posted title and conclusions, but not link to article
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563

[coolcoinz]

Maybe it mutated because people begun to vaccinate when it wasn't needed anymore because most people already had antibodies to the previous strain. What happens when you had the virus and get injected with it again? I feel like it would be better if the governments allowed this to go the natural way, like when you can't stop a house fire and just let it go and focus on protecting the other houses in the area. Lockdowns are only slowing the inevitable.

[mindrust]

Maybe it mutated because people begun to vaccinate when it wasn't needed anymore because most people already had antibodies to the previous strain. What happens when you had the virus and get injected with it again? I feel like it would be better if the governments allowed this to go the natural way, like when you can't stop a house fire and just let it go and focus on protecting the other houses in the area. Lockdowns are only slowing the inevitable.

What is the inevitable? That we all are going to get infected? Sounds about right.

Btw I've already met people that are having their 3rd infections already.

Crazy shit.

[Cnut237]

What is the inevitable? That we all are going to get infected? Sounds about right.

Viruses mutate anyway, particularly RNA viruses such as CV19. Each time the virus infects someone, it starts to make copies of itself. Sometimes those copies aren't quite perfectly accurate. These are random mutations. Not necessarily better or worse, just a bit different. What is happening now is that one of these mutations, which apparently is 70% more transmissible, is (largely because it has mutated to become more transmissible) spreading rapidly.

So yes, given the half-hearted government attempts to contain the 'normal' version, we'd need vastly more effective lockdowns against the new strain just to keep us at the current level of increasing infections. Fortunately we have the start of the vaccine roll-out now, which will help... and may or may not be sufficient to control this.

[Mauser]

Maybe it mutated because people begun to vaccinate when it wasn't needed anymore because most people already had antibodies to the previous strain. What happens when you had the virus and get injected with it again? I feel like it would be better if the governments allowed this to go the natural way, like when you can't stop a house fire and just let it go and focus on protecting the other houses in the area. Lockdowns are only slowing the inevitable.

I think the idea behind the lockdown is more to stretch the inevitable out to the future. The plan here is to have enough vaccines ready in the next 6 months to get at least some form of herd immunity. The mutation we are facing now needs to be analysed closer, maybe the vaccines won't be working anymore.

[acener]

To be honest I don't have anything against lockdown it is for our own safety to prevent the virus from spreading,
The only thing that I am concern of in lockdown is the food supplies of the people who are affected on it.
We all know that earning is hard due to the pandemic even small business would be forced to close down because of it so would the government help those who would be on the lockdown or would they just lockdown those area?
And about the virus mutation would the current vaccine still help on fighting it?

[franky1]

To be honest I don't have anything against lockdown it is for our own safety to prevent the virus from spreading,
The only thing that I am concern of in lockdown is the food supplies of the people who are affected on it.
We all know that earning is hard due to the pandemic even small business would be forced to close down because of it so would the government help those who would be on the lockdown or would they just lockdown those area?
And about the virus mutation would the current vaccine still help on fighting it?

asian countries are well versed in this. they close the borders quick. they get people to reduce their mingling. and when people do get it. they actually properly contact trace 7-15 people they came near. isolate them and actually offer them home visits of food and other stuff. meaning those isolating are checked on and have things they need to not risk leaving home

other countries try to just 'let the will/ common sense of the people' do it. meaning some people just ignore the advice. this is why some countries cases grow even with some/full restrictions

take london for instance the mayhem of people getting on trains when being told they shouldnt be moving around
heck even at the train stations they were not even respecting personal space.

i dont blame the virus or the politics. i blame the people that just dont know common sense.

.. if your told not to move around and to also respect personal space.. if your first response is to gather shoulder to shoulder in huge crowds and trying to get into a 10foot wide incubation cylinder known as a train carriage, again rubbing shoulders with people only 2foot apart.. maybe just maybe those people are not the smartest humans in the race. and its not the viruses fault for londoners mental decisions

the proof of the stupidity of it not just being londoners going home but instead londoners trying to leave home and spread around the country is the increase of hotels/airbnb locations in the last day or two.
yep londoners are escaping london and having a 14-42day vacation around the country (bringing the virus with them).. idiots

edit:
large family just arrived in rome from london. with symptoms and yep its the london strain..
more proof that londoners dont follow advice to stay home.

[sirazimuth]

Maybe it mutated because people begun to vaccinate when it wasn't needed anymore because most people already had antibodies to the previous strain. What happens when you had the virus and get injected with it again? I feel like it would be better if the governments allowed this to go the natural way, like when you can't stop a house fire and just let it go and focus on protecting the other houses in the area. Lockdowns are only slowing the inevitable.

What is the inevitable? That we all are going to get infected? Sounds about right.

Btw I've already met people that are having their 3rd infections already.

Crazy shit.

That might be telling about your community and the rules they follow.

I myself  have known of 2 cases within 1 degree of my associations in my community.
I personally know no one who has actually contracted covid.
Granted, I must be living in a bubble. But at this point in time, it's a bubble I like.

[franky1]

Btw I've already met people that are having their 3rd infections already.

they didnt learn the first or second time?
also if you met 'people'(plural) then you have not learned to stay away from infected people.

..
that said knowing the seasonality of covid. i dont think someone/anyone could have got it 3 times
even twice is a stretch.

so i doubt they had it 3 times.. and more likely tried to tell you they were sick the 3 times you arranged to meet them as their excuse to cancel the appointment/visit to not be near you.

yep even i have told people im sick just to avoid an appointment with someone i didnt like
maybe if they are always sick when you call them up you should get the hint no one wants to meet you, especially if its more then one person playing that trick on you.

.. come on 3 times on 9 months.. maths and biology just dont add up to 3..super unlucky to be immuno compromised while being swingers/minglers on masse.. or they lying to you

think about it. if they did have it 3 times.. they would become popular national study cases where lots of scientists would want to know about them.. yet no news. so i doubt it extremely that they tested postive 3 times

[Tzupy]

Potential biological significance of mutations

B.1.1.7 lineage. This variant has 17 mutations (the 14 amino acid replacements and 3 in-frame deletions
are listed in Table 1b). Two of these mutations have already been described to alter SARS-CoV-2 biology:
N501Y sits in the receptor binding motif (RBM) of the Spike protein, and has been described to increase
binding affinity to the human ACE-2 receptor; 69-70del has been identified in variants associated with
immune escape in immunocompromised patients and is responsible for a “dropout” in the S gene PCR
target in certain diagnostic tests (e.g. Thermo Fisher TaqPath). These tests target multiple regions of the
virus genome, so the test itself is not compromised. Reported cases and phylogenetic analyses have
indicated an exceptional rate of introduction of mutations into this lineage. It has been hypothesised that
this lineage may have resulted from the transmission of the virus from a chronically-infected individual.
This is based on observations that a high rate of mutations may accumulate In immunocompromised
patients with chronic infections of SARS-COV-2.

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf

[sirazimuth]

Potential biological significance of mutations

<snip...lots of technical shit no normal folks understand or care to read about>

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf

IAW... wear a fucking mask in public, don't mingle in crowds, and stay home, its a pandemic.

[Tzupy]

Potential biological significance of mutations

<snip...lots of technical shit no normal folks understand or care to read about>

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Report-1_COG-UK_19-December-2020_SARS-CoV-2-Mutations.pdf

IAW... wear a fucking mask in public, don't mingle in crowds, and stay home, its a pandemic.

Well, excuse me for reading (quoting you) "lots of technical shit no normal folks understand or care to read about"...

The point is that the new strain is definitely more infectious, and so far unclear how much more pathogenic.
It is more infectious because of the higher binding to hACE2, also appears more capable of immune evasion because of 69-70del.
It is yet unclear to me if P681H, which occurs at the Furin cleavage site, is going to make it more pathogenic.
If the virus depends more on Furin, this usually means it's more pathogenic.

As for your advice, I've been wearing a mask with a P3 filter (>99.99% particle retention) for 5 months now, am taking 400 mg of HCQ / week,
am definitely avoiding crowds, but I effing won't "stay at home".

[sirazimuth]

am taking 400 mg of HCQ / week,
...

Good luck with that dude, I hope you are getting good advice....

[tvbcof]

there are actually something like 4000 strains of covid19.
...

'covid-19' is a disease not a micro-organism.  That would be the presumed 'SARS-CoV-2' virus.  Don't you remember your own propaganda bullshit phraseology?

Now, when the (not a) vaccine does not actually stop one from getting the viral infection and does not stop one from spreading it to others, we see why they were so 'Miss Gramerly' on the disease/virus distinction thing from the start.  They knew they were going to have to sell a 'vaccine' against a set of symptoms and not against a virus.

[tvbcof]

The new strain B.1.1.7 has acquired several important nucleotide changes and deletion mutations.

Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations

Conclusion
We report a rapidly growing lineage in the UK associated with an unexpectedly large number of genetic changes including in the receptor-binding domain and associated with the furin cleavage site. Given (i) the experimentally-predicted and plausible phenotypic consequences of some of these mutations, (ii) their unknown effects when present in combination, and (iii) the high growth rate of B.1.1.7 in the UK, this novel lineage requires urgent laboratory characterisation and enhanced genomic surveillance worldwide.

Edit: sorry, only posted title and conclusions, but not link to article
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563

Ah yes.  The long awaited 'next one' which '_will_ get their attention this time.'

[mu_enrico]

Btw I've already met people that are having their 3rd infections already.

Shit, really? Do they get sick every time or just no symptoms?

Anyway, mutations are one of the traits of coronavirus. Why people seem surprised?! Lockdowns only make things worse as herding immunity will never be attained.
What if all flu-like symptoms, all this time, are coronavirus/covid-19 with different strains?