I speculate that the cryptospace will be fractured to the compliant exchanges based in America like Coinbase and Gemini, the noncompliant of the rule but still KYC exchanges similar to Binance, Bittrex, others outside of America and the grey exchanges where there will never be KYC.
it will be interesting to see how exchanges like binance, kucoin, bybit, etc respond. i suspect (and hope) they'll continue to dance around the issue by claiming they prohibit USA customers. thus in theory, they aren't transmitting transactions that cross USA borders, so nothing is reportable to FINCEN.
that way, they can keep allowing unverified traders.
it's playing with fire, of course. FINCEN may already deem what a lot of these exchanges are doing as illegal money transmission in service of USA customers. the more rigid their regulations get, the more likely they are to eventually sanction someone like binance. i just hope when that inevitably happens that it's a civil penalty---not a criminal one that shuts the whole exchange down.
the end game is to force all exchanges (not just american ones) into mandatory KYC. i strongly feel they're gonna make the case that geo-blocking americans or banning them in terms of service is insufficient, and that only mandatory KYC can prevent foreign exchanges from doing business with americans.
FinCEN’s decision might seem bad for many reasons, but it is also good for many reasons.
no.
just.....no.
