Bitcoin Maximalism Has Won

[Harlot]

TBH I really hate both Bitcoin Maximalist and Altcoiners as they always believe in their side of the story, if you are seeing words of a one-sided story or with some kind of bias you will always not get the full picture of anything. That's why when newbies believe someone with a one-sided story or prediction they will always end up having a bad decision when it comes to trading as what they based it on is with bias. Its wrong to be one of those person so I think the best way to react in this is not to be one of them but always remain neutral as possible.

[figmentofmyass]

-altcoiners are clearly near capitulation. (after capitulation usually comes reversal)

Capitulation? Reversal? Tell that to a penny mining stock shareholder whose shares have become worthless.

nocoiners say the same thing at the bottom of bitcoin bear markets---same idea.

there's a big difference between an altcoin dropping 80-90% against BTC in a multiple year bear market and "becoming worthless". any bitcoin investor who has lived through a bubble and the bear market that follows should understand that.

maybe "this time is different" but that mindset usually doesn't work out. altcoin greed is inevitable in a bitcoin bubble.

I can see Ethereum going up, it's the main coin for smart contracts and all the stuff based on smart contracts, but what BCH and BSV have to offer? They are just counterfeit Bitcoin, institutional investors would be dumb to buy them.

CME is launching ETH futures next month because of institutional interest in hedging spot ETH positions. https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2020/12/16/cme_group_to_launchetherfuturesonfebruary82021.html

in addition to ETHE data, that tells me there is serious institutional interest in ethereum. an ETH bubble would in turn fuel a general altcoin bubble.

it's retail, not institutions, who will pump and chase shitcoins like BSV of course.

after watching the last couple bubbles, i'm not gonna bother worrying about the fundamentals behind shitcoins. i'm just thinking about how retail greed works in a bubble.

[Febo]

Bitcoin Maximalism Has Won

LOL.

First in all sentences you described what is happening now you did not even posted the right one what Bitcoin maximalism means. Bitcoin maximalism means that there can be only one coin and that coin is Bitcoin. Of course not today or this year but in 10-20 years time. That and nothing else is Bitcoin maximalism.

Does the prices show it will win in last 3 months? Not really. Bitcoin had x3, Etehreum had x2.5, Litecoin had x3, Doge had x5. Out of 10000 coins there wil always be one that will price wise outperform.


Oh and, I am 99.999% sure that 20 years form now we will have 1000 times more coins as we have right now

[pooya87]

it's retail, not institutions, who will pump and chase shitcoins like BSV of course.

Neither retail nor institutions care if a coin is a shitcoin, they all care about the profit that they can make from that shitcoin. Case in point: interest in ethereum!

after watching the last couple bubbles, i'm not gonna bother worrying about the fundamentals behind shitcoins. i'm just thinking about how retail greed works in a bubble.

What I'm more interested in is how long the greed in any of the altcoins stay. Specially the bigger ones with lots of flaws. For example what are these institutional investors going to do when the time comes that token creation hype is completely dead and the excessive amount of circulating supply of etherum that has unlimited supply keeps pushing the price down every day!

Does the prices show it will win in last 3 months? Not really. Bitcoin had x3, Etehreum had x2.5, Litecoin had x3, Doge had x5. Out of 10000 coins there wil always be one that will price wise outperform.

You shouldn't look at USD price of altcoins, instead check their price against bitcoin...

Oh and, I am 99.999% sure that 20 years form now we will have 1000 times more coins as we have right now

I don't think so. I believe that we will see the number of altcoins grow for a couple of years but as the market matures more and as more people get dumped on by the shitcoins and lost billions of dollars among them, they eventually stop throwing their money away meaning the number of shitcoins created decreases slowly.
Basically the same thing that happened to ICO tokens. We were initially seeing a couple of tokens created every day but we barely see another new one for weeks.
Eventually the day comes when we only have a handful of altcoins that are actually decent not just some pump and dump schemes like the current top altcoins, and the rest will simply die.

[thecodebear]

Institutions don't care about altcoins. They firstly care about Bitcoin, and secondly as a bit more risky play they care about Ethereum. Everything else are altcoins anyone of them could easily be replaced, even the ones that are serving useful purposes and have momentum and user growth behind them.

Sure there's a small portion of institutions that will put a bit of money in altcoins as a totally speculative play that maybe it'll survive and thrive in the long term, but mostly it's BTC and to a lesser extent ETH. I think once they get used to having a position in BTC more of them will take positions in ETH as well.

Bitcoin is the safe investment for them, because Bitcoin's future has become obvious as a future multi-trillion dollar global reserve source of value. Ethereum is a bit riskier just because blockchain smart contracts haven't yet fully achieved a point at which they will very obviously be a global economic force in the future. But if they do achieve that then Ethereum is almost certain to be the primary platform, and DeFi does seem to be the "killer app" or at least the first lasting big killer app for smart contract ecosystems. Altcoins, on the other hand, are speculative investments in which you hope some of them skyrocket enough to offset your bad bets, so that isn't something most institutions that are looking to grow and preserve value without a lot of risk will be interested in.

[exstasie]

Institutions don't care about altcoins. They firstly care about Bitcoin, and secondly as a bit more risky play they care about Ethereum. Everything else are altcoins anyone of them could easily be replaced, even the ones that are serving useful purposes and have momentum and user growth behind them.

Sure there's a small portion of institutions that will put a bit of money in altcoins as a totally speculative play that maybe it'll survive and thrive in the long term, but mostly it's BTC and to a lesser extent ETH. I think once they get used to having a position in BTC more of them will take positions in ETH as well.

Devil's advocate: BTC was the speculative play for high risk hedge funds 5 year ago. Now it's much less speculative so larger, more mainstream institutions are entering.

Now ETH is the speculative bet. How about in a few years, or 10? You think it ends there?

It's a lot like the venture capital and penny stock space. Lots of go-nowhere ideas and scams, but contenders always emerge eventually.

[thecodebear]

Institutions don't care about altcoins. They firstly care about Bitcoin, and secondly as a bit more risky play they care about Ethereum. Everything else are altcoins anyone of them could easily be replaced, even the ones that are serving useful purposes and have momentum and user growth behind them.

Sure there's a small portion of institutions that will put a bit of money in altcoins as a totally speculative play that maybe it'll survive and thrive in the long term, but mostly it's BTC and to a lesser extent ETH. I think once they get used to having a position in BTC more of them will take positions in ETH as well.

Devil's advocate: BTC was the speculative play for high risk hedge funds 5 year ago. Now it's much less speculative so larger, more mainstream institutions are entering.

Now ETH is the speculative bet. How about in a few years, or 10? You think it ends there?

It's a lot like the venture capital and penny stock space. Lots of go-nowhere ideas and scams, but contenders always emerge eventually.

I hear you Mr Devil's Advocate ;p

But will contenders actually emerge?? BTC, even if viewed as a speculative bet 5 years ago, was still the safe bet when it came to crypto. If you thought crypto was going somewhere, BTC was where you get in. That is something you could only ever say about BTC and to a lesser extent ETH.

ETH is likely to become considered a safer bet as long as DeFi and possibly other use cases continue to grow and it continues to be seen as far and away the dominant smart contract platform, the way BTC has always been viewed as the dominant money crypto.

Now there might be a few other coins in the future that start to become viewed as safe bets to keep growing as long as crypto keeps growing, but right now there are none and there never have been any others. And I would say that if any coins achieve that status they wouldn't really be altcoins anymore. I don't consider ETH an altcoin anymore because it has achieved primary status as THE smart contract platform and I don't think anyone serious questions it is here to stay (unless some other crypto actually becomes an ETH killer but every so called ETH killer so far has failed and the longer ETH remains the champion the less likely it will ever have any real competition). Right now there are two main use cases for crypto and they are exemplified by BTC and ETH, everything else is altcoins and is expendable. Beyond perhaps making tiny speculative plays, institutions won't ever be interested in altcoins that could blip out of existence and nobody would really care.

I agree it's possible in the future for something not BTC and ETH to achieve primary status as a major coin, though I don't know how likely that will be, that is considered safe to invest in long term. But I don't ever see institutions just buying up significant allotments of random altcoins that they hope will moon. Like penny stocks, altcoins are for traders, not for big money to put their wealth into. I can see VC's investing in actual companies pre-IPO that build a business around crypto (Coinbase, Ripple, etc) but I don't see VC's just buying altcoins as an investment.

[carlisle1]

And when a Crash Happens again  then New Newbie account will come to Post Against this Thread or something related to this mean   

Same Scenario over again , What i care now is I made a right decision of Converting my XRP Mid of December and have saved my Funds to Bitcoin in which Made another Record for History .

I will going to Have this until it fell down to at least 28k Level ,and will consider to stay in Stable coins.

[philipma1957]

Institutions don't care about altcoins. They firstly care about Bitcoin, and secondly as a bit more risky play they care about Ethereum. Everything else are altcoins anyone of them could easily be replaced, even the ones that are serving useful purposes and have momentum and user growth behind them.

Sure there's a small portion of institutions that will put a bit of money in altcoins as a totally speculative play that maybe it'll survive and thrive in the long term, but mostly it's BTC and to a lesser extent ETH. I think once they get used to having a position in BTC more of them will take positions in ETH as well.

Bitcoin is the safe investment for them, because Bitcoin's future has become obvious as a future multi-trillion dollar global reserve source of value. Ethereum is a bit riskier just because blockchain smart contracts haven't yet fully achieved a point at which they will very obviously be a global economic force in the future. But if they do achieve that then Ethereum is almost certain to be the primary platform, and DeFi does seem to be the "killer app" or at least the first lasting big killer app for smart contract ecosystems. Altcoins, on the other hand, are speculative investments in which you hope some of them skyrocket enough to offset your bad bets, so that isn't something most institutions that are looking to grow and preserve value without a lot of risk will be interested in.

Good.  Shitcoins are for gpu mining ⛏ in order to convert to btc.

I have earned more btc with mining ⛏ Doge,Ltc ,and eth then I have ever earned mining btc.


Investors can stay the fuck away from shit coins. It allows the little guy to get a piece of coin with his gaming rig.

If you have a 2200 usd alien 👽 gaming rig with a 3080 nividia card. it earns 30 cents for each hour it mines. it burns 4 to 8 cents an hour.

So 22 to 26 cents an hour profit. Mine 10 hours a day and make 2.50 so in three years your rig is paid off.

And you can get a new rig. so you get a free alien 👽 gaming pc every three years and sell the old one for 500 usd worth of btc.

Any one that is against that will be on the wrong side of history.

This fact above will always attract the gaming guy/girl to mining a bit with their rig.

Basically being only btc is the exact same as saying gamers cant mine.

reality is gamers can and do mine when they are not using the gaming rig to game.


All btc max should read my signature and believe that over only btc.

[buwaytress]

And when a Crash Happens again  then New Newbie account will come to Post Against this Thread or something related to this mean   

Same Scenario over again , What i care now is I made a right decision of Converting my XRP Mid of December and have saved my Funds to Bitcoin in which Made another Record for History .

I will going to Have this until it fell down to at least 28k Level ,and will consider to stay in Stable coins.

Good for you. But I actually want to continue counting on newbie posts or necro resurrected accounts to keep sentiment in check. Loving where we are headed but am wary that too fast too soon means a lower floor for when we eventually have to test and find it. And that is coming, of course. Stocks and economy overheating and in flawed valuation. of course that will have some impact later on.

So. Keep them newbie posts coming. Still want to be an early adopter (relatively speaking) for as long as possible!

[thecodebear]

And when a Crash Happens again  then New Newbie account will come to Post Against this Thread or something related to this mean   

Same Scenario over again , What i care now is I made a right decision of Converting my XRP Mid of December and have saved my Funds to Bitcoin in which Made another Record for History .

I will going to Have this until it fell down to at least 28k Level ,and will consider to stay in Stable coins.

Good for you. But I actually want to continue counting on newbie posts or necro resurrected accounts to keep sentiment in check. Loving where we are headed but am wary that too fast too soon means a lower floor for when we eventually have to test and find it. And that is coming, of course. Stocks and economy overheating and in flawed valuation. of course that will have some impact later on.

So. Keep them newbie posts coming. Still want to be an early adopter (relatively speaking) for as long as possible!

The difference right now though is that it is going up fast because institutions are scooping up all available Bitcoin and the vast majority of them are holding long term. This makes a very different situation than past bull runs in which it was basically 100% retail investors jumping into something who would then panic sell on any drop. The situation is such that the floor is going up faster than previous bull markets because it is long term holders that are causing the ascent, rather than panicky retail investors trying to jump into some investment they just heard about and know nothing about. This is why instead of seeing solid corrections the past 3 months we've only seen a series of quick bear traps - because the floor is rising rapidly. Sure at some point a substantial correction will happen that may take a month or two to work through, but that won't happen until institutions get wary of how fast the price has gone up, so that is something I'd be looking out for if the price like doubles again in the next two or three months. But at $30k, when institutions are dying to get into Bitcoin, eating up tens of thousands of Bitcoin each week, a substantial correction isn't a worry right now. Retail investors of course still control enough of the market to cause a panicked correction, but any drop will just be bought up by big players until the price rise is so fast and high that they take a break to see if prices go lower. Like I said, that ain't gonna happen at $30k, supply and demand right now is very much in favor of near term significant upside, perhaps after a little bit of time consolidating at this level.

[buwaytress]

The difference right now though is that it is going up fast because institutions are scooping up all available Bitcoin and the vast majority of them are holding long term. This makes a very different situation than past bull runs in which it was basically 100% retail investors jumping into something who would then panic sell on any drop. The situation is such that the floor is going up faster than previous bull markets because it is long term holders that are causing the ascent, rather than panicky retail investors trying to jump into some investment they just heard about and know nothing about. This is why instead of seeing solid corrections the past 3 months we've only seen a series of quick bear traps - because the floor is rising rapidly. Sure at some point a substantial correction will happen that may take a month or two to work through, but that won't happen until institutions get wary of how fast the price has gone up, so that is something I'd be looking out for if the price like doubles again in the next two or three months. But at $30k, when institutions are dying to get into Bitcoin, eating up tens of thousands of Bitcoin each week, a substantial correction isn't a worry right now. Retail investors of course still control enough of the market to cause a panicked correction, but any drop will just be bought up by big players until the price rise is so fast and high that they take a break to see if prices go lower. Like I said, that ain't gonna happen at $30k, supply and demand right now is very much in favor of near term significant upside, perhaps after a little bit of time consolidating at this level.

Indeed, that's what I'm banking on that will carry Bitcoin slowly up, rather than rush to 6-figures... that institutions and even government pension funds -- either publicly or discretely -- are thinking of long-term holdings rather than even medium-multi-years. Gold, we know, has already been outstripping supply even in 2020 with banks buying them up, there's not much other similar type of thing they can buy in liey.

The exchange volumes NOT going overly crazy also suggests retail fomo isn't nearly going to be enough to cause a run. Maybe this is the last "parabola" cycle we're witnessing. Not holding my breath though. At $100k, even institutions will be liquidating to diversify.

[exstasie]

Right now there are two main use cases for crypto and they are exemplified by BTC and ETH, everything else is altcoins and is expendable. Beyond perhaps making tiny speculative plays, institutions won't ever be interested in altcoins that could blip out of existence and nobody would really care.

Sure, but that says nothing about future technological and market developments. You're thinking like a conservative institution: you won't concede that anything is viable until after it's made a move like ETH. That's fine but I don't know how realistic this "there are only 2 use cases for crypto" attitude is. The rise of Ethereum shows Bitcoin maximalists fundamentally misread the market thinking Bitcoin as decentralized money was the only possible use case with network effect. I don't think "there can only be 2" is much more viable of a theory.

I agree altcoins are expendable at this point. ETH was expendable at $0.40. That's all I'm saying.

[thecodebear]

The difference right now though is that it is going up fast because institutions are scooping up all available Bitcoin and the vast majority of them are holding long term. This makes a very different situation than past bull runs in which it was basically 100% retail investors jumping into something who would then panic sell on any drop. The situation is such that the floor is going up faster than previous bull markets because it is long term holders that are causing the ascent, rather than panicky retail investors trying to jump into some investment they just heard about and know nothing about. This is why instead of seeing solid corrections the past 3 months we've only seen a series of quick bear traps - because the floor is rising rapidly. Sure at some point a substantial correction will happen that may take a month or two to work through, but that won't happen until institutions get wary of how fast the price has gone up, so that is something I'd be looking out for if the price like doubles again in the next two or three months. But at $30k, when institutions are dying to get into Bitcoin, eating up tens of thousands of Bitcoin each week, a substantial correction isn't a worry right now. Retail investors of course still control enough of the market to cause a panicked correction, but any drop will just be bought up by big players until the price rise is so fast and high that they take a break to see if prices go lower. Like I said, that ain't gonna happen at $30k, supply and demand right now is very much in favor of near term significant upside, perhaps after a little bit of time consolidating at this level.

Indeed, that's what I'm banking on that will carry Bitcoin slowly up, rather than rush to 6-figures... that institutions and even government pension funds -- either publicly or discretely -- are thinking of long-term holdings rather than even medium-multi-years. Gold, we know, has already been outstripping supply even in 2020 with banks buying them up, there's not much other similar type of thing they can buy in liey.

The exchange volumes NOT going overly crazy also suggests retail fomo isn't nearly going to be enough to cause a run. Maybe this is the last "parabola" cycle we're witnessing. Not holding my breath though. At $100k, even institutions will be liquidating to diversify.

I don't see institutions liquidating at $100k. They are getting in long term. $100k would be a short term play. So far the price projections I've mostly seen coming out of institutions are in the several hundred thousand dollars. If they were like putting 50% of their money into Bitcoin then sure they'd liquidate quickly after like 2x or 3x, but (other than Microstrategy) they are putting a fraction of a percent in (so far) or at most usually 2-3%. That is not a position they are going to be trying to liquidate quickly to diversify, those are the kinds of positions they will continue to build once their previous positions are already massively in profit and they feel comfortable taking a larger position knowing their overall position is now safe.

As you point out, retail FOMO hasn't even started really. I'm sure there's a little bit going on but compared to past bull runs its nothing yet. I kinda feel like retail FOMO will be less now. Because most people have known about Bitcoin for 3 years now, and most people have the view that it always crashes (as wrong as that view is!). Whereas in previous bull markets people were hearing about Bitcoin for the first time, in the middle of massive bull run, so they FOMO in. The situation is different now. Instead of FOMOing in I think most of the retail market is just assuming its gonna crash any day now, but over time as it doesn't they'll wade in little by little at higher prices once the realize the price isn't crashing.

And I don't expect a big crash / bear market, precisely because I don't think retail will FOMO in, which is what caused previous crashes/bear markets. And also because institutions are getting in and will continue getting in for years, they have enough money to stop any crash in its tracks and the desire to do it because that means they can to increase their position on the cheap before others do. They aren't going to be selling at $100k, they will continue buying at $100k and beyond. Only a fraction of them will even have started to get a position in Bitcoin by the time it hits $100k. And $100k should happen pretty quickly, almost guaranteed to happen this year, there's just too much institutional demand for it not to pass $100k this year. I do, however, think institutions will scale back buying whenever they feel like it has gone up too fast and they are afraid of a bubble forming, and some of the more agile institutions will take some off the table at these points, looking to get back in lower. In that way I think we'll just see repeated shorter bull markets followed by decent months long corrections and that'll last for several years, rather than a single big bull market and then it taking 3 years to get back to that price.

Institutions alone can easily buy this thing up north of $500k pretty quickly if they wanted to, but its only the leading most forward thinking institutions buying now, and even they wouldn't keep buying if the price shoots up too fast. So I believe we're at the start of a super cycle that may last like 5 years of institutions gradually getting in to build up positions of usually a few percent, in combination with more crypto-specific hedge funds opening up, plus at some point during that time an ETF which will open up Bitcoin to a who other class of Wall St retail investors that won't directly buy into something as "confusing" as crypto, and also retail gradually coming in with little bouts of FOMO here and there. It'll be a multi-year bull market when you smooth it all out, but there will be months-long corrections here and there when institutions get wary of the price shooting up too quickly.

[Saisher]

    Institutions don't care about altcoins.

This is very true, the reason why we have a big pump, institutions are coming in one of the early adopter is PayPal we all know when a huge online company and probably one of the leader just come in to be part of the community, many small and mid range institutions online and offline will start to coming in, so we now have this huge pump.

[buwaytress]

~snip

Don't disagree completely, but I think it does depend on how much they're investing and from where. Thinking about my country, for example, where a five-fold increase in returns is unheard of, which is what $100k price tag would mean. I know how some pension funds work, for example, and there are two targets. A time target, and a returns target. Whichever hits first, shareholders typically vote to liquidate, at least a portion anyway for a big dividend payout. That said, even 100% gains is unheard of so maybe we see even $40k and $50k this happening. Not to the point it'll crash the market, and perhaps newer funds will set up at that point anyway!

I'm aware also what qualified for "institutional investment" is wildly different in different countries. $100k is a huge amount for private funds in a majority part of the world, the new wealthy, or whatever we want to call them.

[thecodebear]

Right now there are two main use cases for crypto and they are exemplified by BTC and ETH, everything else is altcoins and is expendable. Beyond perhaps making tiny speculative plays, institutions won't ever be interested in altcoins that could blip out of existence and nobody would really care.

Sure, but that says nothing about future technological and market developments. You're thinking like a conservative institution: you won't concede that anything is viable until after it's made a move like ETH. That's fine but I don't know how realistic this "there are only 2 use cases for crypto" attitude is. The rise of Ethereum shows Bitcoin maximalists fundamentally misread the market thinking Bitcoin as decentralized money was the only possible use case with network effect. I don't think "there can only be 2" is much more viable of a theory.

I agree altcoins are expendable at this point. ETH was expendable at $0.40. That's all I'm saying.

I'm not saying no other coins will succeed. I'm saying institutions don't care about coins that are entirely expendable. Maybe in the future there will be other coins beyond BTC and ETH that aren't expendable, but there aren't right now. If at some point other coins achieve a primary status in the crypto world then institutions would be interested in them, but right now nothing outside of BTC and ETH have that status, and until that changes institutions will only be interested in BTC and ETH. Meaning that institutions aren't interested in altcoins. If let's say a couple other coins this decade achieve this primary status, I would say they aren't really altcoins anymore.

You're right there are other use cases besides digital gold and smart contracts. Though smart contracts cover most use cases, there are still others. There's decentralized storage, there's a daily spender (though that will just end up being government/central bank issued stablecoins when fiat upgrades to crypto), there's privacy coins, there's something like LINK that provides Oracles, something like DOT that provides bridges between chains, I could possibly see some sort of public crypto tied to some sort of social uses, and more. But like I said, RIGHT NOW there are two main use cases for crypto and BTC and ETH have them covered. Likely at some point specific coins will become dominant and primary in some of these or other new use cases, at which point they will no longer be "altcoins" and institutions may take notice of them.

The reason I am thinking like a conservative institution is because I am talking about what conservative institutions are interested in! They aren't and won't ever be interested in anything that can be considered an altcoin. They will only ever be interested in something besides BTC and ETH if that something rises out of altcoin status and becomes something useful, highly used, highly valuable, with network effects that will only build, and a penchant for rising in value. Also because institutions have so much money they won't be interested in even altcoins that dominate their niche if that niche is small. Any crypto won't interest institutions to any real degree until its a $100B type market cap. Anything smaller than that they can't even build a decent position without controlling the market.

I guess maybe it depends what you mean by altcoin though. Some may still consider an altcoin anything that isn't Bitcoin. I consider an altcoin any coin that isn't a market driver. Right now everything other than BTC and ETH are altcoins. Maybe 5 years from now there's one or two more dominant cryptos, but right now nothing is on the horizon for achieving such a status that would interest institutions.

[marcus_of_augustus]

RootStock can do everything ETH can do ... except uses bitcoins natively.

Which do you think Institutions will use to do DeFi when they are loaded up with Bitcoin?

[figmentofmyass]

RootStock can do everything ETH can do ... except uses bitcoins natively.

it technically uses an altcoin that is pegged to BTC---there is a difference.

no layer 2 protocol can ever provide the same security guarantees that bitcoin does. i think that's why interest in them has traditionally been lacking.

Which do you think Institutions will use to do DeFi when they are loaded up with Bitcoin?

institutions want their bitcoins locked up in cold storage at fidelity, coinbase. how does that fit into that scenario?

[thecodebear]

Yeah exactly. Institutions will be holding their Bitcoin to protect wealth, not messing around in DeFi with it.

But, they will also be picking up some ETH, and then they can use some of that for doing DeFi on the primary DeFi platform, rather than bothering with some sidechain on Bitcoin.