The problem with selling BTC.

[jubalix]

While you could sell, the problem is while you may make a profit, say 2x, this doesn't count for much when BTC does a 10~20 x and then drops 50% 75% x even.

You're locked out of most of the next 10 x so for a momentary cycle of 2 x you give up access to 100x over a longer time frame.

That is you have to time buying back in, which is really hard. The upside risk makes this not really a viable strategy

And even if you do sell out and buy that other asset, you still have to look at that asset, for basically ever, and live with the fact BTC has gone 100x or more in the next 2 cycles and so on.

It's not like you get to stop watching the graph if you sell out, you just enter into the what-if realm.

The only solution it seems to at most sell very small amounts that have no real effect on your overall holdings even though it did cost you a lot. Eg a BTC in 600$ sale in 2016 or whatever cost you 29K now. Or maybe 20K for buying power since the printers went brrrr.


So of your portfolio, you can sell maybe 1~5% max over time.

Long term it seems we have to wait until BTC becomes the denominator that is the reserve world currency. Then we can but in BTC, and everything will be unstable compared to it or stabilize in BTC and that is 20 years off?

[el kaka22]

You do not have to sell your bitcoin, people think they have to sell their bitcoin, you have to just get more and more of it and "spend" and earn it as well. So let's say that just like everyone else in the world, you work for fiat, which means you get paid in fiat money for your work, and you spend that fiat for whatever you need. Instead of that, think of a world where you end up working and earning bitcoin, and you end up buying whatever you want with bitcoin as well, that is the dream we are chasing right now.

As of right now we do not have that many places we can spend bitcoin, but it is getting there, more and more places started to accept it, so I am sure one day we will be there. At that point you will not care about spending your bitcoin, because you are going to be earning it as well, hence you will never be out of it completely.

[Sterbens]

So of your portfolio, you can sell maybe 1~5% max over time.

Long term it seems we have to wait until BTC becomes the denominator that is the reserve world currency. Then we can but in BTC, and everything will be unstable compared to it or stabilize in BTC and that is 20 years off?

You are absolutely right, this is the strategy for managing bitcoin with a benchmark for the long term, so that whenever there is a pretty good opportunity, we will not be left behind. because if it's sold out, the rest of our time is spent lamenting the graph that continues to go up and up. even though it had a slight correction, it couldn't guarantee the same profit as the first sale. Besides the different number of bitcoins, of course the value will be very unsatisfying.
once again, that selling 1-5% of the total bitcoins in the portfolio makes us cultivate bitcoins periodically from time to time.

[thecodebear]

I'd say a good long term strategy is, like the OP says, sell a little bit at a time when you feel is has appreciated a lot. And then hold onto that money and wait to see if the price dips a good bit below that. If it does then you can get back in lower and your sell actually helped you gain more BTC, but if not then just take it as profit and cash it out and be happy you made some money and still have most of your investment left. In this way over the long term you can gradually take some profit so you are realizing your gains, while also sometimes getting in back lower to build your position more, all while keeping the majority of your holdings intact and only having your BTC amount go down gradually over the long term.

That will pretty much be my strategy going forward. Sell a bit at a time over the long term, take some of that profit in cash (and set aside the appropriate amount for taxes), and with the rest wait for a bit to see if there is a dip lower and I can build some of my position back at lower levels, if so I do that, if not then I just consider it all profit taking and move the rest of it to other investments to diversify with my great crypto gains.