2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Speaking of Bitfury - any word on what the specs of their new chip is?
I'll have to dig around for pics/links but I remember some of their immersion cooled farms in Georgia running around 10-15MW back in the 28nm days. Even if their new chip is by today's standards using a 'large' 12 or 10nm node then expect performance increase for same power to be what we've seen from Bitmain and Canaan chips as their node size shrunk. If it's under 10nm that would be icing on the cake but given the price paid to use the lower nodes I doubt it is 7nm much less 5.

Considering Bitfury's knack for immersion cooling and putting the chips in strings, I'd think that their private hash rate *should* be phenomenal.

Their other 'sideline' is mining containers. Massive ones.

[1714991749]

1714991749

[1714991749]

1714991749

[kano]

Well the  'old gear' numbers are probably whatever is in the apollo thing, the new gear numbers 'should' be better than that

[HagssFIN]

Kano, I'm really interested where you found information about Bitfury's latest chip / gear? As Bitfury for me as a Finn is the closest one for "a local manufacturer" and I have one guy who may be interested in it.

Their head of product development is or used to be, a Finn, mr. Niko Punin (also nickname punin here at btctalk).
Not sure if he is still with them.

[kano]

You'll have to give it a while before I can answer that ... coz as should be obvious from my reply I don't have the details ... yet ...

Meanwhile 1/4 way through the diff change and lady luck is showing how much fun she can have with us ... almost -3% ...

[philipma1957]

Well -3 is impressive.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
...

Latest Block:   704087  (20 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   96.9351%  (504 / 519.94 expected, 15.94 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                           
Current Difficulty:   19893045048575.13                           
Next Difficulty:   between 19313562614760 and 19635298154170
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9130% and -1.2957%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 7:27 PM  (+4.7132%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 19, 2021 at 12:06 AM  (in 10d 13h 59m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 19, 2021 at 6:04 AM  (in 10d 19h 58m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 38m 52s and 14d 10h 37m 24s

...

the price is at 54.3k

these are dead solid amazing numbers for any established miner.

I wonder if the illegal mine got busted or if they turn it on and off.

Think about this 3-5eh not legal run it on days 12,13,14, to 1,2,3  of 2 diffs epoch.

have to check to see if we get hot at block 1600 to block 300 say OCT 16 to OCT 23

[mikeywith]

I wonder if the illegal mine got busted or if they turn it on and off.

It looks like it, read this link https://jsca.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/gzdt/art/2021/art_97125dc430264d4c82f42713a2eea23b.html

It seems like the Chinese government is getting more serious about banning bitcoin mining, they are tracking internet traffic to try and spot where large operations are happening.

This will likely scare some illegal miners off, the harder the government tries to find them the less risk they will take, but will that be offset by migrated and new gears? Time will tell.

[stompix]

Hmm, why are they going after internet traffic and not checking power usages?
Flat power use with no gaps at night would be a clear indicator of continuous mining

This is google translate of course but...

It has been monitored that the export traffic of mining pools in our province carrying out virtual currency activities reached 136.77 Mbps, and the total number of Internet IP addresses participating in "mining" is 4502.

So mining in China with a Chinese pool is clearly a risk, seems like we're going to see a complete switch, from US and Eu miners mining with Chinese pools, Chinese mining with Foundry and Mara, this is going to be one hell of a twist.

Consumption of computing power resources exceeds 10PH/s, and energy consumption is 260,000 kWh/day.

Gues they added eth miners here, right?
10PH/s in S9s are 700 units, at 35kwh a day only 25 000kwh.

From the perspective of the ownership and nature of IP addresses, about 21% of the people belonging to party and government agencies, universities, and enterprises were invaded and used to carry out virtual currency "mining" behaviors.

This is not going to end well for the ones doing it...

Now, speculating, we ignore luck cause it's no fun with it, we check the pace:

Current Pace:   97.0714%  (530 / 545.99 expected, 15.99 behind)

and the raw conclusion would be that more miners have shut down (out of the ones still mining in China), enough to offset even efficiency balancing to due price rise and new gear beings shipped and installed.
And since we're back on track to 35 cents per TH, the price at $54.5k , isn't this one of those moments where everything is just too good?

And we went negative

It won't last.

Don't be such a panda 

[philipma1957]

It is just too good to be true.

Go China Go

crush those miners  out


Now seriously in the long run what does it mean for the rest of the world and BTC.

Time will tell.

[mikeywith]

Hmm, why are they going after internet traffic and not checking power usages?
Flat power use with no gaps at night would be a clear indicator of continuous mining

They probably are doing that, but then miners could shut down at night, also, maybe there are some factories that operate 24/7 which miners can use to hide their mining operations.

This is google translate of course but...

It has been monitored that the export traffic of mining pools in our province carrying out virtual currency activities reached 136.77 Mbps, and the total number of Internet IP addresses participating in "mining" is 4502.

4502 IP addresses could be 4502 mining farms with a dozen miners in each, not sure how they got to this

Consumption of computing power resources exceeds 10PH/s, and energy consumption is 260,000 kWh/day.

isn't this one of those moments where everything is just too good?

it is.

Don't be such a panda 

LOL, my hope has been for small difficulty spikes of below 5%, honestly with prices where they are you wouldn't expect the difficulty to drop unless some serious hashrate is leaving, and that is most likely coming from China.

[philipma1957]

Yeah 2021 year of the miner not year of the OX

and 2022 year of the miner not year of the TIGER

[eectechnology]

I'm a bit puzzled about what has happened to all the Chinese mining machines that disappeared off the network. From a peak of 180 Exxahash down to the current 130 is an awful lot of hardware, and from what I know about China (not a lot) it seems that getting them out of the country is reasonably easy - if you know the right people.

You would think that with the potential money at stake all of them should be rehoused in a friendly country by now? I know there's been problems with shipping containers for some time now, but even having to spend $20,000 to get a 40 footer load of machines is peanuts compared to whats at stake.

Lastly, what is the situation with Bitmain's orders taken earlier this year for October delivery - did everyone get what they paid for yet?

[philipma1957]

I'm a bit puzzled about what has happened to all the Chinese mining machines that disappeared off the network. From a peak of 180 Exxahash down to the current 130 is an awful lot of hardware, and from what I know about China (not a lot) it seems that getting them out of the country is reasonably easy - if you know the right people.

You would think that with the potential money at stake all of them should be rehoused in a friendly country by now? I know there's been problems with shipping containers for some time now, but even having to spend $20,000 to get a 40 footer load of machines is peanuts compared to whats at stake.

Lastly, what is the situation with Bitmain's orders taken earlier this year for October delivery - did everyone get what they paid for yet?

i have 50k in orders due in nov.

hoping to see them show up.

[mikeywith]

i have 50k in orders due in nov.

hoping to see them show up.

I am surprised you have taken such a risk knowing the circumstances, I really hope you get all yours in time.

Meanwhile, we went up a bit from -3% to -0.09%, of course, we don't what is causing this, but it's still looking good nonetheless.

Current Pace:   99.2955%  (968 / 974.87 expected, 6.87 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                            
Current Difficulty:   19893045048575.13                            
Next Difficulty:   between 19769385635287 and 19802650882575
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6216% and -0.4544%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 1:27 AM  (+4.7132%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 19, 2021 at 3:11 AM  (in 7d 7h 15m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 19, 2021 at 3:50 AM  (in 7d 7h 54m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 44m 23s and 14d 2h 23m 2s

Lastly, what is the situation with Bitmain's orders taken earlier this year for October delivery - did everyone get what they paid for yet?

the folks that I know did not receive anything yet.


 

[philipma1957]

i have 50k in orders due in nov.

hoping to see them show up.

I am surprised you have taken such a risk knowing the circumstances, I really hope you get all yours in time.

Meanwhile, we went up a bit from -3% to -0.09%, of course, we don't what is causing this, but it's still looking good nonetheless.

Current Pace:   99.2955%  (968 / 974.87 expected, 6.87 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                            
Current Difficulty:   19893045048575.13                            
Next Difficulty:   between 19769385635287 and 19802650882575
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6216% and -0.4544%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 1:27 AM  (+4.7132%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 19, 2021 at 3:11 AM  (in 7d 7h 15m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 19, 2021 at 3:50 AM  (in 7d 7h 54m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 44m 23s and 14d 2h 23m 2s

Lastly, what is the situation with Bitmain's orders taken earlier this year for October delivery - did everyone get what they paid for yet?

the folks that I know did not receive anything yet.


 

We ordered non-sha 256

 3x l7 placed the order months ago well before the shut downs.

so 3x 13k = 39k laid out  if it shows taxes are 13k

so 52k worth of gear on hold due nov 1 to nov 30

but we will see if bitmain folds or delivers

[stompix]

Still flat, the price at over 57k.

Latest Block:   704665  (22 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.1144%  (1082 / 1080.76 expected, 1.24 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1490% and +0.1898%

You can still run an s9 at 15 cents and make a profit, at this point I think that whoever bought something is mining with it unless it's some s5, even the 741 are still profitable for medium electricity rates, and with this cold...

I will blame this on poeple somewhere (probably China) shutting down in waves and negating all the gear installs that are happening, I don't see any other explanation that would hold water. Meanwhile, Bitmain has again raised prices, back to 10500 from 9300 so for them is clear that no matter how much they have in stock probably they are not that keen to sell it unless they do make a huge profit, 12% probably means they are happy keeping the gear for themselves unless you pay a premium on it.

And China seems to not be over with it:
https://forkast.news/china-outdate-crypto-mining-industry-more-restrictions/

In the joint notice, the authorities have clearly stated they intend to categorize crypto mining as an outdated industry, in a move to prohibit investments in the sector.

So, we won't be seeing 200 exa by Christmas this way for sure but we might see 100k/BTC 

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
...
Latest Block:   704802  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2411%  (1219 / 1228.32 expected, 9.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                           
Current Difficulty:   19893045048575.13                           
Next Difficulty:   between 19755155306994 and 19776580141323
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6932% and -0.5855%
Previous Retarget:   October 4, 2021 at 7:27 PM  (+4.7132%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 9:37 PM  (in 5d 13h 26m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 10:01 PM  (in 5d 13h 50m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 10m 4s and 14d 2h 34m 9s

...

Well we are 1219/2016 in and down -0.75% prices sagged a bit to 54K.
 It is likely the new insanely restrictive tax proposal by Biden may have spooked ( @ not racist just half asleep) some holders.

[kano]

Well the % calc went up a little, but seems to have stopped around 1% for the last few days
The interesting thing is that there's a new kid on the block getting up to 15% of the blocks ...
But the hash rate really hasn't changed 15% at all, so it seems most likely to mostly be people running from other pools.
I guess if anyone looks at the other pool changes it might show where they left from.

[mikeywith]

.I guess if anyone looks at the other pool changes it might show where they left from.

Its likely poolin, i think I remember they had over 22EH a week ago or so, thier 3 days average shows 6EH and 24h averages shows 4EH.

Its unlikely that those many miners left the pool in 3 days, maybe they are using a new node and blocktemplate that does not show thier name for whatever reason given the Chinese drama?

[stompix]

Its unlikely that those many miners left the pool in 3 days, maybe they are using a new node and blocktemplate that does not show thier name for whatever reason given the Chinese drama?

Most likely if we go by pools stats
For the last week, Poolin was at 9.65% and Unknown 6.2%
For the last 3 days, Poolin 3,4%, and Unknown 12%

But funny enough, for the last 24 hours unknown blocks are leading the pack with 18%, I see f2pool dropping also 50% in the last 24, so there might be some tough times ahead for pool operators.

Price has touched 60k, the difficulty will be around 1% max at this pace, we might get 40cents per TH, how long will this last?

[alh]

We are now well past the 3/4 mark in this epoch. BTC price is: $61,808.

Latest Block:   705161  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.7164%  (1578 / 1566.78 expected, 11.22 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   18997641161758.95                           
Current Difficulty:   19893045048575.13                           
Next Difficulty:   between 20038695818619 and 20045967003609
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7322% and +0.7687%
Previous Retarget:   October 4, 2021 at 6:27 PM  (+4.7132%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 4:03 PM  (in 3d 0h 28m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 4:10 PM  (in 3d 0h 35m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 36m 35s and 13d 21h 43m 22s

Looks like it will most likely be a SMALL increase. I haven't seen any big positive projections yet, nor any serious decreases either. BTC price has obviously improved quite a bit since the last adjustment. I don't think I've seen $62K yet today, but clearly we are well into $60K range. It' not hard to imagine a new ATH yet this month.  Good time if you have actual hardware to run.