2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[philipma1957]

I'm still able to test out my S17s at a profit at home with my 21c/kwh power...

S17, and with 21 us cents not euro, and that before taxes from VAT to cogeneration and the rest  
I would dump any gear older than the S17 right now as you probably won't mine what you're getting now for it on ebay in a decade with what is next for European consumer prices.

Since you had your fair share of trouble with data centers, this is the usual stuff around here:

General Terms and Conditions Price Changes
From the 1st December 2021 there will be an uplift of 161%* to your Manchester Ball Green Data Centre Power rental and overage charges as per our T&Cs. (*for services billed inclusive of both rack space and power, this uplift will only affect 60% of your rental fee as per our T&Cs.)

I'm guessing pretty soon for EU is either brand new gear or nothing even if we talk about datacenters and not home mining.

Speaking of new gear, the 19xp is already sold out   , poeple have really paid for a miner that they will receive in October. I really need to go to my excel sheets and see why would you buy this and wait 10 months instead of going now for the j, something tells me that with a 5% rise in difficulty it will take more than 24 months to catch up.

As for the difficulty...

Latest Block:   713233  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.2451%  (1586 / 1465.19 expected, 120.81 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.9047% and +8.3128%

lifting a middle finger and walking away  

See this move this is what happen for months on months in 2018. price dropped and diff rose.

If this keeps on trucking the bear will be here.

tomorrow the jump happens which is dec 11 so +7-8 on diff and price under 49k

then dec 24-25
then Jan 6-8
then Jan 13-20


these 3 jumps coming will determine  bear sideways or bull for 2022 If diff pulls say +4 +5 +6 and price is down to 40k the run is done.



my hope is diff goes flat and price drifts up say net +2 and price at 55k

but my hopes have been dashed before.

Be prepped and mine on.

[1714942159]

1714942159

[1714942159]

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[1714942159]

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[kano]

Hmm, no comments about the diff change more than 10 hours ago.
OK, well it went like this:
[2021-12-11 08:40:59.591+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=713664 delta=8.33% new=24195286980613.6 prev=22335659268936.4

So that means another +3.5% to get to the old high score record

[2021-05-13 08:55:45.132+00] 25046487590083.3

[wndsnb]

so in the last ~2 weeks, difficulty increased 8.3% and price drops 17% ... For 7c/kwh power price and a 38W/th miner, profitability dropped 26%... so where's my >25% discount on new miners!

[philipma1957]

so in the last ~2 weeks, difficulty increased 8.3% and price drops 17% ... For 7c/kwh power price and a 38W/th miner, profitability dropped 26%... so where's my >25% discount on new miners!

If 2018 is happening again the discount will be coming shortly.

Next 3 jumps are critical .


early numbers are below

...
Latest Block:   713870  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6010%  (207 / 205.76 expected, 1.24 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 24408116696907 and 25328978617877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8796% and +4.6856%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 1:40 AM  (in 12d 11h 41m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2021 at 3:17 AM  (in 12d 13h 18m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 59m 33s and 13d 23h 36m 32s
...

I like them so far but lets face it way to soon to see what's up.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   713974  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.5137%  (311 / 318.93 expected, 7.93 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                           
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 24197474818223 and 24202972526884
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0090% and +0.0318%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 6:07 AM  (in 11d 21h 17m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2021 at 12:14 PM  (in 12d 3h 24m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 26m 21s and 14d 8h 34m 1s

-2.5% still way early

[stompix]

Way to early..

Latest Block:   714094  (15 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.9917%  (431 / 431.04 expected, 0.04 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7132% and +1.8895%

It would be nice if we would stick to under 1% but probably that won't happen either, guess there is simply to much gear being delivered and only small hiccups in some countries or incidents like the one with the DNS could bring the difficulty into negative (for a while).
The 30cents/TH went by, we dipped to under 25 cents, I guess we're heading to under 20, old gear is going to hurt at between 12-15c/kWh, you currently burn 6$ for 2$ for an s15, you lose money with an S9.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   714199  (50 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   98.1533%  (536 / 546.08 expected, 10.08 behind)

…
Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 24102829919051 and 24152570980818
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3821% and -0.1765%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 6:35 AM  (in 10d 7h 54m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2021 at 9:59 AM  (in 10d 11h 18m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 54m 52s and 14d 6h 19m 17s
…

as said very early ¼ of the way means zip

but I rather see -1.84% then +2.0%😅

[mikeywith]

but I rather see -1.84% then +2.0%😅

Well, it's a lot better now

Latest Block:   714439  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.8324%  (776 / 809.75 expected, 33.75 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                           
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 23419116692486 and 23706831399456
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2079% and -2.0188%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 10:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 7:45 PM  (in 8d 18h 7m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 26, 2021 at 1:17 AM  (in 8d 23h 39m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 5m 2s and 14d 14h 36m 43s

If this ends up being a solid drop then all our predictions about the majority of miners being safe at current prices will be nullified, if you can't take a 40% drop in profitability, you shouldn't be mining in the first place, but the majority of these people are newbies that have no clue about anything or people playing with investors money, mining for many folks won't end up pretty.

[philipma1957]

but I rather see -1.84% then +2.0%😅

Well, it's a lot better now

Latest Block:   714439  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.8324%  (776 / 809.75 expected, 33.75 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                           
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 23419116692486 and 23706831399456
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2079% and -2.0188%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 10:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 7:45 PM  (in 8d 18h 7m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 26, 2021 at 1:17 AM  (in 8d 23h 39m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 5m 2s and 14d 14h 36m 43s

If this ends up being a solid drop then all our predictions about the majority of miners being safe at current prices will be nullified, if you can't take a 40% drop in profitability, you shouldn't be mining in the first place, but the majority of these people are newbies that have no clue about anything or people playing with investors money, mining for many folks won't end up pretty.

It appears:

A) major mine shut down
B) lots of s9's gave up the ghost

The good thing and it is still early is the 2018 trend of higher hashrate with lower price appears stopped for now. this good be great for established miners

I wonder if some one has  5 eh of old gear and turns it on and off  seems crazy but you never know.

[mikeywith]

I wonder if some one has  5 eh of old gear and turns it on and off  seems crazy but you never know.

It could also be because of energy crisis in Khazastan

Didar Bekbauov, who runs Almaty-based Bitcoin-mine hosting company Xive, received an inquiry in September asking him about his company’s operations. After the metallurgical site where Xive and three other mining companies were located filled out the government’s paperwork about their activity, the power started to cut off. At first he was without power about 50% of the time, then 80%. After a few weeks, power was shut off completely.

“They’re trying to make mining a scapegoat, telling everyone that because of miners there was a super load of electricity,” Bekbauov said by phone. “Miners in Kazakhstan are very unhappy now.”

Ultimately Bekbauov had to close the larger of his two mining facilities, a 10-megawatt operation in Taraz in southern Kazakhstan. Some of his investors shipped their machines out of the country to Russia and the U.S.

Source: https://fortune.com/2021/11/24/kazakhstan-bitcoin-crypto-mining-energy-power-crisis-china-xive-shuts-down/

I know the article only talks about 10mw but there are probably other large farms in the area that had to shut down, we also know that a LOT of mining gears migrated from china to Kazakhstan so there is a large amount of hashing going on there, however, I believe most of it will migrate to the U.S, so it's just a matter of time before we see all those gears come back online to push the difficulty to a new ATH despite the price drop in BTC.

I honestly don't see how folks paying $13500 for an S19 pro are ever going to ROI, it seems like the fun is over and the worse is yet to come.

[philipma1957]

I wonder if some one has  5 eh of old gear and turns it on and off  seems crazy but you never know.

It could also be because of energy crisis in Khazastan

Didar Bekbauov, who runs Almaty-based Bitcoin-mine hosting company Xive, received an inquiry in September asking him about his company’s operations. After the metallurgical site where Xive and three other mining companies were located filled out the government’s paperwork about their activity, the power started to cut off. At first he was without power about 50% of the time, then 80%. After a few weeks, power was shut off completely.

“They’re trying to make mining a scapegoat, telling everyone that because of miners there was a super load of electricity,” Bekbauov said by phone. “Miners in Kazakhstan are very unhappy now.”

Ultimately Bekbauov had to close the larger of his two mining facilities, a 10-megawatt operation in Taraz in southern Kazakhstan. Some of his investors shipped their machines out of the country to Russia and the U.S.

Source: https://fortune.com/2021/11/24/kazakhstan-bitcoin-crypto-mining-energy-power-crisis-china-xive-shuts-down/

I know the article only talks about 10mw but there are probably other large farms in the area that had to shut down, we also know that a LOT of mining gears migrated from china to Kazakhstan so there is a large amount of hashing going on there, however, I believe most of it will migrate to the U.S, so it's just a matter of time before we see all those gears come back online to push the difficulty to a new ATH despite the price drop in BTC.

I honestly don't see how folks paying $13500 for an S19 pro are ever going to ROI, it seems like the fun is over and the worse is yet to come.

Was going to give you a merit till I read the last sentence.
Still will but I propose a different idea than yours.

Oct 2020 - Dec 2021 =

 Jan 2016 to Jan 2017

if true. we hit 20x current price by dec 2022 

so 900k in dec 2022 

ps gave you 2x merits as you are 2x more likely to be correct 

[NotFuzzyWarm]

if true. we hit 20x current price by dec 2022
so 900k in dec 2022

That would be something to make me consider retiring... Been planning to keep working for another 5 years or so buuuuut...

[philipma1957]

if true. we hit 20x current price by dec 2022
so 900k in dec 2022

That would be something to make me consider retiring... Been planning to keep working for another 5 years or so buuuuut...

Yeah I sell all Nov 2022 if we are at 800k.

The gear the farm everything.  We can dream 😴

At mikeywith I do think my dream may be a bit of a pipe dream 😴.

[stompix]

Still will but I propose a different idea than yours.

Oct 2020 - Dec 2021 =
 Jan 2016 to Jan 2017
if true. we hit 20x current price by dec 2022 
so 900k in dec 2022 

Or we go for 100k by December 2033, since January 2009 - December 2021 0>46k, meaning in the next 12 years we're going to do another 46k.
What, you thought all the bears are hibernating, this one is alive and kicking 

Back to the difficulty, honestly, I feel like I should really give up even trying, I was so sure we're not going to see a drop but that small -1% would soon be erased and it will be a repeat of the previous periods and now we're looking at over 3% down. I lost count how many times I was totally off.

Latest Block:   714619  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.3623%  (956 / 992.09 expected, 36.09 behind)

It could also be because of the energy crisis in Khazastan

It would make sense but didn't we blame this back at the previous - 1.49 % adjustment, after all, that was more correlated with the dates from the articles. I know it was the same time with the DNS issues in China but the majority of hit miners would have quit then, not one month later.

Speaking of China:
Beijing court rules bitcoin mining contract ‘void’

The signed contract, the Beijing court said, “is void because it undermines social and public interests.

Is anyone willing to grab some bitdeer contracts? 

[wndsnb]

My guess is that the price has little to do with the difficulty adjustments at the moment, and won't unless the price drops below 30K, where 90W/th miners would not be profitable at 7c power. Not so sure even that is low enough, might have to get closer to 15K where 50W/th is break-even at 7c power.

I think we are just seeing a sideways churn as gear is getting moved around for various reasons. Could be a lot of miners are taking advantage of the sky-high gear prices and selling their gear, maybe hoping to buy again when gear prices fall. Miners that moved out of China may be having issues in their new locations. New regulations and crackdowns might be forcing them to have to move again.

Not enough new gear is being brought online to make much of an impact.

[mikeywith]

Was going to give you a merit till I read the last sentence.

Hold my glass, let me edit my post and get rid of that line altogether. 

Still will but I propose a different idea than yours.

Oct 2020 - Dec 2021 =

 Jan 2016 to Jan 2017

if true. we hit 20x current price by dec 2022 

so 900k in dec 2022 

Not saying this is impossible to happen, just want to remind you that 2016-2017 didn't do half as good as the previous cycle, so it's more likely than not that 2022 does even less, so let's say 6x, so 250k is somehow a lot more reasonable IMO, all you gotta do is make sure you have 4 BTC before we hit 250k to be a millionaire, easy right?

@wndsnb, I believe it's a combination of a dozen things, it's extremely difficult to guess which factor has the most impact on the current situation, everytime I think I got all of this mining shit figured out, I remind myself of this nice pie chart



I saw an interview with the CEO of compassmining who manage a dozen worth of MWs and he claimed that a North African country (on a government level) is getting into BTC mining, a few of those countries are super-rich in oil and gas, so maybe instead of selling those resources, just mine BTC? they can probably get mining gears at a cheaper price given how large their orders can be, they get super cheap power, zero tax, they could squeeze every bit of mining, so I won't be surprised if BTC falls below 30k while difficulty keeps going up.

[stompix]

I saw an interview with the CEO of compassmining who manage a dozen worth of MWs and he claimed that a North African country (on a government level) is getting into BTC mining, a few of those countries are super-rich in oil and gas, so maybe instead of selling those resources, just mine BTC? they can probably get mining gears at a cheaper price given how large their orders can be, they get super cheap power, zero tax, they could squeeze every bit of mining, so I won't be surprised if BTC falls below 30k while difficulty keeps going up.

I played around a bit with this, data from average production from IEA and current gas/oil/coal prices in Europe.

Starting from
 

Coal–0.88 kWh/pound
Petroleum liquids–12.76 kWh/gallon
Natural gas–0.13 kWh/cubic foot

with a lot of possible mistakes in conversion, since damn!!! this imperial system, we get
 
Prices:

1000kwh / 75$ equivalent of coal sold
1000kwh / 185$ equivalent of oil sold
1000kwh / 257$ equivalent of gas sold

At current gas prices in Europe, it seems like makes no sense to burn gas and use the electricity as you would get only 1kwh instead of getting 25cents for it raw.
Of course, there are costs with exports, prices will not be that high forever, newer gas station might have better efficiency or you simply can't export it since you don't have the pipes but still, on paper, it doesn't look good.
Coal, on the other hand, is pretty attractive, no wonder Marathon has bought two coal powerplants, even with European prices it goes at ~7cents, but with US prices it's almost half.

[mikeywith]

newer gas station might have better efficiency or you simply can't export it since you don't have the pipes but still, on paper, it doesn't look good.

Off the top of my head I think Algeria has excessive power and they are adding a fair amount of clean energy every year, so even if we were to assume that selling fossil fuels makes more sense. When you generate more power than you ever use (which isn't something you can taper easily) why not get a few EH worth of mining gears?

The other fact would be owning bitcoin without having to buy it which I believe is the point that person was trying to make, it could be true since a government buying bitcoin directly isn't as simple as it may sound, the same person mentioned about the FBI mining bitcoin back when it first started "probably in the Silkroad era" since they could easily request more "computers" which also makes sense, think of all the implications that an official organization has to go through to buy bitcoin OTC or from an exchange, but mentioning "computers" or "IT infrastructure" in your balance sheet when you actually want to buy mining gears can easily slip by in countries like Algeria and nearly most of the other African countries.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   715011  (8 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   97.0361%  (1348 / 1389.17 expected, 41.17 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 23614624844756 and 23677011468572
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3999% and -2.1421%
Previous Retarget:   December 11, 2021 at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 12:48 PM  (in 4d 17h 36m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 1:56 PM  (in 4d 18h 44m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 8m 10s and 14d 10h 15m 47s
…

Well -2.963%

not bad looks like we get the christmas 🎄

numbers to drop for a mining ⛏ gift.


So a new all time hash rate will not come this year.

It is interesting to see if the diff meanders for Jan and Feb.

Many so called experts say the supply chain will not be fixed until fall of 2022.

[stompix]

Latest Block:   715230  (20 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.2810%  (1567 / 1594.41 expected, 27.41 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.2217% and -1.1618%

3 days to go, 11 have passed you would need the current hashrate to be 6% over the previous adjustment to make another positive period, there have been 148 blocks in the last 24h, just a bit over 2.5%, so we might see another negative?
If $ goes over 50k, that would be a happy quiet Christmas.

And btw, if there is somebody who planned to heat his house in Europe with mining gear and he hasn't yet turned it on he will never will, just woke up to -9C (guess it's 15F) and I'm a thousand miles south of Norway! 

The other fact would be owning bitcoin without having to buy it which I believe is the point that person was trying to make, it could be true since a government buying bitcoin directly isn't as simple as it may sound, the same person mentioned about the FBI mining bitcoin back when it first started "probably in the Silkroad era" since they could easily request more "computers" which also makes sense, think of all the implications that an official organization has to go through to buy bitcoin OTC or from an exchange, but mentioning "computers" or "IT infrastructure" in your balance sheet when you actually want to buy mining gears can easily slip by in countries like Algeria and nearly most of the other African countries.

First thing is that I doubt a regime like the ones in North Africa would encounter the same problems as a governmental agency in the homeland of bureaucracy if they would really want they simply buy it or set up a fund to deal with "investments", that's if we talk about government level.

But if I would see it from the point of view of the officials, yeah mining would make more sense, after all, you need to purchase gear, so there is a commission, you have to set up some legal expertise, you have to point some poeple in charge of purchasing, in charge of electricity, in charge of maintenance, that would create a lot of cozy spots for a lot of relatives who are just so eager to work. It won't be efficient but who would really care about that, I see this as a thing of debating on whether the move makes sense in direct numbers or if it makes sense for certain poeple and certain situations.

[philipma1957]

...
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   715587  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.5708%  (1924 / 1932.29 expected, 8.29 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 24191949459769 and 24191956409352
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.0138% and -0.0138%
Previous Retarget:   December 11, 2021 at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:07 AM  (in 0d 15h 23m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:07 AM  (in 0d 15h 23m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 26m 43s and 14d 1h 26m 54s
...

maybe we can do 0.0%.

Merry Christmas to all and Happy New Years

edit with 44 blocks to go Zero is still in the running it would be cool to see it.

edit with 27 blocks left we are 5.63 blocks behind

to get a perfect 0% we need to end at 3:40AM. EST about 3 ½ hours