The #1 best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended

[DashingAgent]

The #1 best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended

Due to volatility, it is very difficult to predict that when Bitcoin dominance will be finished and when altcoin season will come because the thing people do is, first they make the profit through bitcoin, then they invest money in Ethereum to make profit, then they invest in altcoin and altcoin grow. But the best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended and Bitcoin price will not go up more, we need to do some research/analysis, It is not possible to just see the chart and claim that Oooh the above space is empty bitcoin can go to the moon. It is not also possible to just rely on the news because sometime news comes that Institutions are buying bitcoin or there is a good news from regulatory authority etc but this is not enough to predict that where the dominance will end. As I see, I find the only best way to predict the bearish position of Bitcoin is to keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

[actmyname]

-snip- I find the only best way to predict the bearish position of Bitcoin is to keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

There. Trimmed the fat.

I'm not sure why you're trying to predict when an altcoin season is coming when your basis is effectively that very idea: a low Bitcoin dominance means a high market cap for altcoins.
I guess you're right, but it's like me proving that a circle is round because a descriptor of a circle is roundness.

[exstasie]

As I see, I find the only best way to predict the bearish position of Bitcoin is to keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

I can only find BTC dominance data going back to April 2014. Where was it in December 2013?

I'm not sure why you're trying to predict when an altcoin season is coming when your basis is effectively that very idea: a low Bitcoin dominance means a high market cap for altcoins.

It goes with my theory that in the late stages of a bubble, money will flow into the riskiest and most speculative assets. That's retail investors, late to the party, looking for those "Bitcoin-like" gains because they feel they missed the boat.

On fundamentals alone I think there's probably something to it, but even so, trying to predict the exact level where dominance will bottom out is futile. There have been too few of these cycles to assume everything will play out like last time.

[rhomelmabini]

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/
Base on history especially the 2017 bull market it records I guess on 67% before it begins on the downtrend direction and on late August of 2019 it reach 72% before it goes downtrend again. December 28 we are at 70% and now this day we are at 68%.

Well, I guess that make some sense but Bitcoin dominance upon searching on google it's still sitting at 68% but if we never goes lower to that 32%-34% I think we still just getting higher lows from this current bull run.

Bitcoin's price is currently $34,314.60. Bitcoin's dominance is currently 68.51%, an increase of 0.42% over the day.

This is the current dominance this day.

Pretty risky to let it play on mid or low caps altcoins the money isn't really flowing in there, I'd never be surprised if someone will call crypto a scam again. When the Bitcoin dominance tends to lower the next will drive some altcoins to top but shortly just like what we see on the late 2017 and early 2018 market.

[actmyname]

On fundamentals alone I think there's probably something to it, but even so, trying to predict the exact level where dominance will bottom out is futile. There have been too few of these cycles to assume everything will play out like last time.

Eh. All things being equal, if you are looking at the 30% mark like OP wanted, then you're aiming for a BTC market cap drop of over 75%, reducing the price to <9K.

Doing anything based on dominance which is affected by numerous factors is going to be more-or-less one of those useless infallible theories or those useless general theories. If anyone can work with all those inputs, good for them: I will stick with pragmatism.I share a conjecture with your 'alternative asset flow' towards the tail-end of mania, though I'm assuming that it's primarily based on sentiment and not any heavily-detailed empirical analysis.

[pragna]

The #1 best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended

Due to volatility, it is very difficult to predict that when Bitcoin dominance will be finished and when altcoin season will come because the thing people do is, first they make the profit through bitcoin, then they invest money in Ethereum to make profit, then they invest in altcoin and altcoin grow. But the best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended and Bitcoin price will not go up more, we need to do some research/analysis, It is not possible to just see the chart and claim that Oooh the above space is empty bitcoin can go to the moon. It is not also possible to just rely on the news because sometime news comes that Institutions are buying bitcoin or there is a good news from regulatory authority etc but this is not enough to predict that where the dominance will end. As I see, I find the only best way to predict the bearish position of Bitcoin is to keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

Yea, i think you are right here. From this top point if BTC down atleast 40%, then we can say that it will go down and where it will go again no body will know. But there will be good opportunity for investors if it goes down because in the mean time people believe that donw means not end everything but opportunity for best investment.

so now we have to see the market what will happen in near future.

thansk.

[stompix]

When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

Actually, it was quite the opposite, in 2017 in June when the first time bitcoin's dominance was threatened was also right before the bull run, the bull run ended when the dominance (d'oh) was at the maximum level afterward but the downtrend is pretty damn obvious as it's just logic.

I'm not sure why you're trying to predict when an altcoin season is coming when your basis is effectively that very idea: a low Bitcoin dominance means a high market cap for altcoins.

Also, this change in dominance doesn't mean that the "bull run" is over, Bitcoin could still grow at an insane pace and still lose dominance just because some shitcoins would grow faster. That aside I think the author would have done better with a way better indicator:
"The bitcoin bull run will end when the price isn't growing anymore". 

I can only find BTC dominance data going back to April 2014. Where was it in December 2013?

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage
https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20131201/
Around 87%, that was the lowest for 2013.

[nelson4lov]

Predicting Bitcoin's decline using the Bitcoin's Dominance index isn't a foolproof way to predicting when Bitcoin's epic upside run will come to an end. From everything I've seen so far, Bitcoin bulls have been very tasty so far and won't mind attempting $40,000 milestone target afterwards I'm assuming we'll get some correction and money will then flow into alts. Already we have seen alts have been doing really well lately - ETH has peaked at $1200+ today, XLM went over 100% and MKR is up over 50% as well. I forget to mention FTX's FTT token has breached $9.3 and it was at $5 a few days ago.

My point is, Don't be too reliant on Bitcoin's dominance because if you do, you might be late to what seems like the biggest bull run in crypto history!

[Kelvinid]

The #1 best way to predict that Bitcoin bull run has ended

. As I see, I find the only best way to predict the bearish position of Bitcoin is to keep your eye on Bitcoin dominance, When the dominance will reach 32-34% or below 50%, Bitcoin bull run will be ended. It is the only thing which happened during the 1st day whether it is 2013 or 2017.

It gives only for you some insights that Bitcoin price will increase more but not it brought you where it stops. Ain't that people are stopping to do speculations/predictions but this couldn't be accurate and we should always remember how volatile it was.

2013, 2017, 2020, we got these bullish times unpredictable and that because of different reasons.
To live this kind of possibility is not unusual but a common event since we are in an uncontrolled market. I never stop predicting and do speculation but I keep this just a normal thing to do especially when you are in trading.