Google Trend and Bitcoin price. Do retailers rejoin the party?

[tranthidung]

From the visual chart, it seems that retailers (old, new) rejoin or join the party again. The time-series line for Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.

The thread is to announce the potential of a new wave from retailers. A reminder is you do know what sort of retailers' effects and their longevitty, then what will happen after that.

It is a very simplified view. Sometimes, we need to be as simplest as possible.  

From the data points around 15k (Bitcoin Google trend) to 20k, it is ~ 33% increase for Bitcoin Google trend. Within the same period, the price of bitcoin rose from $15455 to $19140. It is about 23.85% rise.

If history repeats itself, the price of bitcoin from current all time high at $34778 will rise up to $43072. That price is still lower than some other speculation.

Again, it is not my financial advice, just my opinion and another different way to view the market.  


Data sources

• https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin
• https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/

[pooya87]

Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.

Wrong time frames are being compares here, but it is interesting to see that the trend is already going up this soon.
All time high in 2017 was the end of the bull run after lots of rises and when the bubble was reached whereas now is just the beginning of the bull run and if anything it is more like the beginning of 2017 rather than its end.
The hype is just getting started

[tranthidung]

Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.

Wrong time frames are being compares here, but it is interesting to see that the trend is already going up this soon.
All time high in 2017 was the end of the bull run after lots of rises and when the bubble was reached whereas now is just the beginning of the bull run and if anything it is more like the beginning of 2017 rather than its end.

Thanks. I know that and this thread is for very robust overview on the market with some assumptions behind:

• Gogole Trend does not change their algorithm for those stats over last 5 years.
• Beware and accept biases from Google Trend stats
• Assume the power or force of retailers on the market in 2 periods are the same
• Skip other power/ force from institutes in near future

In reality, institutes will have effects (probably bigger), and retailers might have very bigger effects than what they created in 2017.

The hype is just getting started

I am speechless, it is not what I expected hours ago.  

[lifeforcepools]

In any case, investing in bitcoin is more promising in my opinion.

[hatshepsut93]

Let's just hope that this is not a sign of an incoming crash  

I heard a theory that institutional investors will dump their coins on retail investors at the end of this bull run, which will start the bear market. Even if this theory is correct, I doubt that it will happen anytime soon, the bull run has just started, the institutional interest in Bitcoin still seems to be strong, i.e. not all institutions have hopped the hype train yet.

[buwaytress]

Agree with most analyses now that retail fomo won't be as strong as in the past, but that is only with the past and current demographic of developed economies. The East Asian fomo, with a significant population of high disposable income should lay the foundation for a new breed of retail fomo... Not to mention later from emerging economies.

As someone above said, it's only just getting started!

[exstasie]

Agree with most analyses now that retail fomo won't be as strong as in the past, but that is only with the past and current demographic of developed economies.

Against the backdrop of increasing institutional investment (more sustained price rise as they suck supply off the market), and also based on the idea that Bitcoin's market cycles are slowing down (I expect this cycle to last longer than 4 years), I think retail FOMO will be more sustained this time. Across the board, developed economies too.

Only ~15% of Americans own crypto, for instance. That's still a huge market to tap. And now with Wall Street backing the hype instead of fighting it? We're entering a whole new era of legitimacy.

A lot of people who refused to touch BTC last time around will get in this time.

[tranthidung]

Agree with most analyses now that retail fomo won't be as strong as in the past, but that is only with the past and current demographic of developed economies. The East Asian fomo, with a significant population of high disposable income should lay the foundation for a new breed of retail fomo... Not to mention later from emerging economies.

Bitcoiners' Demographic over years

• Surveys have many things with their survey designs, then analytical methods and analytical process. Those stats in that thread are all for reference with zero guarantee on their accuracy.
• From my reading time, I found out that older generations have been more interested in bitcoin. It makes sense as they are most conservative people so if they accept bitcoin, are readily to spend capital to bitcoin, the younger generations will have more adoption on bitcoin.

As someone above said, it's only just getting started!

A lot of people who refused to touch BTC last time around will get in this time.

As being said, I expect bigger effects from both institutes and retailers. Game is set but beware of hiccups along the adventure in 2021.

The estimate in OP is 'naive' estimate, with many assumption from past data. It is impossible to calculate or estimate power of new investor sources.

That price is still lower than some other speculation.

In reality, institutes will have effects (probably bigger), and retailers might have very bigger effects than what they created in 2017.

[teosanru]

I think this has become an usual activity whenever there is an increase in price of bitcoin the news channels and media houses begin to show Bitcoin related news and then people begin to look up for Bitcoin and many see this as breathtaking technology and regret not investing in it and then Bitcoin goes a bit south and those who invested realised that they had made a mistake and those who didn't invest celebrate that they are intelligent that they didn't fell for this bubble. I think their definitely be a set of investors who would join the party.

[buwaytress]

Against the backdrop of increasing institutional investment (more sustained price rise as they suck supply off the market), and also based on the idea that Bitcoin's market cycles are slowing down (I expect this cycle to last longer than 4 years), I think retail FOMO will be more sustained this time. Across the board, developed economies too.

Also thinking it's a long cycle, if not even the last "parabola". Just hoping there is also a longer time spent above average price than below, unlike all the other cycles. Not that it really changes things for me long-term, just will be a good sign of how Bitcoin might look like after 2 more halvings (when the decrease won't be as stark).

It makes sense as they are most conservative people so if they accept bitcoin, are readily to spend capital to bitcoin, the younger generations will have more adoption on bitcoin.

Perhaps that really is what it'll look like for Bitcoin. I still think people actually using it, often and for spending and payments, is what really kicks up Bitcoin fundamentally. And that's not really what conservative users will be doing. But hey, whatever gateway works!

[thecodebear]

Ah interesting to see Google trends on the rise.

Though I worry much less about a big crash because no matter how much the retail market is moving into Bitcoin right now, institutions are moving into it with a lot more money. And they aren't FOMOing in, which would leave them with risky positions that need to be liquidated which is what happens during retail frenzies and which causes big crashes. Rather, they are building long term positions of like a percent or two, which is not something that needs to be panic liquidated during a drop.

I expect the FOMOing of the retail market to be more gradual now, and therefore less volatile, than in previous cycles.

There will still be short bubbles and corrections, but maybe not one big bubble and one big bear market like previously.

While last decade was a series of giant bubbles and perilous crashes as Bitcoin attempted to gain relevancy in the world as it moved along the left-hand side of the S-curve graph, I think this decade will be the vertical move up that S-curve graph. There will be volatility and small bubbles and corrections, but over the long term it will be a sustained upward movement of two orders of magnitude ($10k to $1 million) rather than having years-long periods of building back up between bubbles.

We are now out of the period in which Bitcoin gets noticed for a year and then dismissed for three years. It is now entering its Digital Gold status. As this status gradually grows both retail and institutional markets will gradually get further in to Bitcoin. Corrections will be limited to a few months at most for the next few years as Bitcoin shoots up the S-curve graph. It is time for Bitcoin's super cycle. The 4 year cycle worked well between the first halving and the third halving, but the game is changing now. Instead of a bull year/bear year/2 year buildup/bull year the next five years, we're just gonna see a single ~5 year bitcoin supercycle bull run.

[nakisama]

bitcoins lost in wallets not recoverable anymore and the 21 million cap plus big money coming into the race

trend is certainly up

[acquafredda]

The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.

[thecodebear]

The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.

Exactly. It'll take some time, but the market bottom is going to move an order of magnitude higher in the near future. Institutions have soooooo much more money than what previously existed in the entire crypto market...even if they only put in 1%.

[darewaller]

I feel like retail fomo could be even bigger when they realize that this time around it is not crashing. Let me explain it this way, last time bitcoin was on route to 20k, steam, amazon, hotel website companies, everyone basically got involved, they wanted to be paid with bitcoin, that was a great period, however do you know what happened?

Well in the end, people actually removed all the bitcoin payments after the crash, none of them wanted a part of bitcoin. This time around the hurt from those times stands, because they remember they did accepted once and it got very low and they lost a ton of money, they do not want the same thing to happen once again, which resulted with them not getting involved anymore. It is not really a horrible situation, it is not great neither but it is not horrible, we can definitely do a lot better with a bit more time.

[pooya87]

last time bitcoin was on route to 20k, steam, amazon, hotel website companies, everyone basically got involved,

Steam started accepting bitcoin payments back in 2016 when price was $400 (not on route to $20k)
Amazon has never accepted bitcoin payments!
Random other businesses like hotels have been coming along every now and then starting to accept bitcoin.

Well in the end, people actually removed all the bitcoin payments after the crash,

You are wrong again, only Steam and a handful of others removed bitcoin payment option before the ATH and it was because of the huge transaction fees in 2017 that exceeded the cost of the stuff they sold (like the games by steam).

[tranthidung]

The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.

You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase.

Mid-point of the parabola rise is around, according to some speculations

• This tweet
• My calculation (with same assumptions that not count for bigger power in current and future market. I meant if taking into consideration of bigger power from institutes, retailers as increase of adoption, price would be higher than what I calculated)
• Mayer bands (it is only in Bullish extension, not Overbought yet)
• My calculation almost matches with this chart (upper bound but BTC can rock over upper bound)
• The party is here but please be cautious of hiccups

Bitcoin $BTC is redefining the concept of "overbought." Bull markets become and remain overbought. Major bull markets become overbought majorly. Historic bull markets become historically overbought. Red arrows mark midpoints of parabolic advances

[acquafredda]

The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.

You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase.

I am sorry but you are comparing apples and oranges here. Failing to recognize the difference between the retail and institutional market is a mistake. We would have never reached these prices with the retail market only, I guess that should be clear. You may find the following article interesting
https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/institutional-vs-retail-investors

[Becky666]

In any case, investing in bitcoin is more promising in my opinion.

Yeah, investing into Bitcoin is no doubt promising but some investors will definitely invest in the wrong time which may crumble their hope if not financially stable, like what we have seen in past years in Bitcoin. Basically there might still be time for anyone to invest into bitcoin and be able to take profit, but if the market has reach it strength at this point; then retailers are likely to be left with coins but IMO that won't happen soon becasue institutions are now be involve in Bitcoin.

[tranthidung]

You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase.

I am sorry but you are comparing apples and oranges here. Failing to recognize the difference between the retail and institutional market is a mistake. We would have never reached these prices with the retail market only, I guess that should be clear. You may find the following article interesting
https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/institutional-vs-retail-investors

You did not see the word mutual?

I did not say they are the same and they can create games in the market without the another component. Institutes ~ whales, just a name-calling as institutes when they are companies, entities, not a person.