Google Trend and Bitcoin price. Do retailers rejoin the party?

[darewaller]

last time bitcoin was on route to 20k, steam, amazon, hotel website companies, everyone basically got involved,

Steam started accepting bitcoin payments back in 2016 when price was $400 (not on route to $20k)
Amazon has never accepted bitcoin payments!
Random other businesses like hotels have been coming along every now and then starting to accept bitcoin.

Well in the end, people actually removed all the bitcoin payments after the crash,

You are wrong again, only Steam and a handful of others removed bitcoin payment option before the ATH and it was because of the huge transaction fees in 2017 that exceeded the cost of the stuff they sold (like the games by steam).

Amazon did accepted bitcoin, in fact if I am not wrong it did accepted bitcoin for twitch and prime payments until last year, no idea if they still continue but around 2019 to 2020 I was a twitch viewer and subscribed to someone using bitcoin, which is owned by amazon and I did get a prime membership as well using bitcoin. But when it comes to payment, they stopped using it, I don't know where you live, I don't know if it is regional thing, but they accepted bitcoin for all amazon products and not third party ones, which is why I said amazon accepted it and stopped.

Steam did accepted it a lot earlier that is true part I can't argue but they stopped in 2018 not in 2017, I bought a game in 2018 using bitcoin (more specifically pubg, I wanted to see what the fuss was about). Expedia was the number one bitcoin hotel deal, no idea if they still continue but I used them and it was AWESOME, I hope they still have it. Long story short, retails did accepted it once, and not sure if they will come back, not like fee's are low right now.

[Wind_FURY]

Let's just hope that this is not a sign of an incoming crash  

I heard a theory that institutional investors will dump their coins on retail investors at the end of this bull run, which will start the bear market. Even if this theory is correct, I doubt that it will happen anytime soon, the bull run has just started, the institutional interest in Bitcoin still seems to be strong, i.e. not all institutions have hopped the hype train yet.

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

[hatshepsut93]

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

But what if Bitcoin moons to, let's say, 150k, then crashes to 60k. Now your friends are angry that you talked them out of these potential profits. This is why I just never ever give anyone financial advises, and tell them to do their own research. You risk to spoil your relationship and for what - often times, even if you give someone a correct advice, they won't thank you.

[Taskford]

Let's just hope that this is not a sign of an incoming crash  

I heard a theory that institutional investors will dump their coins on retail investors at the end of this bull run, which will start the bear market. Even if this theory is correct, I doubt that it will happen anytime soon, the bull run has just started, the institutional interest in Bitcoin still seems to be strong, i.e. not all institutions have hopped the hype train yet.

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

We got your point but what if they are waiting for nothing and the bear market crash will not happen this year? Then they will wait for nothing and that's a waste of time so maybe try to advise them to buy whenever they see the price goes dump a little bit since for the current market flow happening today the dump is little and the pump is more bigger.

[Wind_FURY]

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

But what if Bitcoin moons to, let's say, 150k, then crashes to 60k. Now your friends are angry that you talked them out of these potential profits. This is why I just never ever give anyone financial advises, and tell them to do their own research. You risk to spoil your relationship and for what - often times, even if you give someone a correct advice, they won't thank you.

Because I have already told EVERYONE to buy UNDER $10,000 with me, UNDER $15,000, UNDER $20,000. They want to be angry? I believe they should be angry at themselves, not me. Would you tell your mother it's "OK" to buy Bitcoin priced at $40,000?

[exstasie]

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

Seriously, even you think it's too late to buy?

Below $20K, I was telling friends to buy dips. Above $20K, I was telling them to buy anything (and especially dips). Nobody listened. And now they're all scared to buy and think they missed out.

In a month or two, I expect them all to be asking me which altcoins to buy.

I've seen this all before. This kind of sentiment tells me we're going so much higher. Retail has barely gotten their foot in the door.

Would you tell your mother it's "OK" to buy Bitcoin priced at $40,000?

I've always been adamant about this: if you don't own any BTC at all, it's a good time to buy some.

[blckhawk]

Let's just hope that this is not a sign of an incoming crash  

I heard a theory that institutional investors will dump their coins on retail investors at the end of this bull run, which will start the bear market. Even if this theory is correct, I doubt that it will happen anytime soon, the bull run has just started, the institutional interest in Bitcoin still seems to be strong, i.e. not all institutions have hopped the hype train yet.

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

Yeah, it is kinda scary to buy Bitcoin at this point because it was insanely high besides, the fact that I don't even know when the market starts to fall. Even myself having a doubt to buy right now so I won't recommend to anyone to buy at this point. Perhaps, after a correction will do. They can take the risk of buying though but if it starts to fall they should be ready to hold it for the meantime till it goes up again as well. Just tell them what risk and gains can get out from it and let them choose. I think would be much better, you give them your opinion and now it's up to them what decision to be made.

[JimboToronto]

Do retailers rejoin the party?

I don't mean to nitpick and I realize English is probably not your native language but the word "retailer" means a merchant or retail seller.

The word you want in this context is "consumer" which means a user or customer.

A retailer sells to a consumer.
_____

Yes. Retail buyers have been flooding in for weeks now although their purchases are still dwarfed in volume by those of institutional buyers.

Just be aware that much of the institutional volume is off-exchange.

If anything, institutional investors make sacrificial sales losing money by selling on retail exchanges to drive the price lower so that they can buy off-exchange cheaper and more than recoup their losses.

[sana54210]

But what if Bitcoin moons to, let's say, 150k, then crashes to 60k. Now your friends are angry that you talked them out of these potential profits. This is why I just never ever give anyone financial advises, and tell them to do their own research. You risk to spoil your relationship and for what - often times, even if you give someone a correct advice, they won't thank you.

Because I have already told EVERYONE to buy UNDER $10,000 with me, UNDER $15,000, UNDER $20,000. They want to be angry? I believe they should be angry at themselves, not me. Would you tell your mother it's "OK" to buy Bitcoin priced at $40,000?

I agree on the part that they didn't listen. I have told my friends in 2018 to buy bitcoin when it crashed, price was under 5k for a very long time during that period and they kept saying bitcoin price went from 20k to 5k so they will not buy since it is a project that "failed", I told them it didn't fail and it will definitely go up in the future, it is just in a bear period right now.

For nearly 2 years they kept saying the price didn't go up too much, was around 5-10k range for 2 years, and they "mocked" me for investing into something that didn't made any money at all and they were "right" about not putting their money into it. Look at the situation now... they keep telling me how I became "rich" thanks to bitcoin bubble, in reality I am not rich because lets face it I didn't buy millions of dollars so a 8x return doesn't automatically make me rich, but I made a great return, and I wasn't "lucky" because I told them this would happen, I knew it.

[Wind_FURY]

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

Seriously, even you think it's too late to buy?

Personally, the best times to buy the dip and HODL to be comfortable are gone. I don't want my friends to be stressed. They don't have the same mentality as us, who can HODL. If I told them to buy Bitcoin at $40,000, crashed to $33,000, then I believe they would have sold, and tell me that I am a scammer. I want to avoid that. Hahaha.

Below $20K, I was telling friends to buy dips. Above $20K, I was telling them to buy anything (and especially dips). Nobody listened. And now they're all scared to buy and think they missed out.

I told friends and all the plebs of the forum to buy under $10,000, under $15,000, under 2017 ATH.

In a month or two, I expect them all to be asking me which altcoins to buy.

I've seen this all before. This kind of sentiment tells me we're going so much higher. Retail has barely gotten their foot in the door.

Would you tell your mother it's "OK" to buy Bitcoin priced at $40,000?

I've always been adamant about this: if you don't own any BTC at all, it's a good time to buy some.

Do you remember this conversation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5238343.msg54805879#msg54805879

The girl in the right-most panel are the people currently buying.

[exstasie]

Personally, the best times to buy the dip and HODL to be comfortable are gone. I don't want my friends to be stressed. They don't have the same mentality as us, who can HODL. If I told them to buy Bitcoin at $40,000, crashed to $33,000, then I believe they would have sold, and tell me that I am a scammer. I want to avoid that. Hahaha.

Fair enough. My friends were too scared to buy in the $30-42K range, so I told them the "safe" place to buy is at 30-40% down from the last peak.

I doubt any of them will actually pull the trigger now that the market is crashing, but anyone who does and gets in near $25K or $27K is going to be very happy down the road.

Do you remember this conversation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5238343.msg54805879#msg54805879

The girl in the right-most panel are the people currently buying.

Sure, but this is only like.....stage 1 FOMO. We've got several more stages to go before this bubble is over.

[GreatArkansas]

This google trend also one of my basis if the FOMO begin from retailers just like what happened last 2017-2018 when we saw a massive run for Bitcoin.
This time is really different from the lastime since even the google trend does not yet reach the its previous all-time-high, price of Bitcoin already doubled, so I conclude that Bitcoin still got more room on upside price actions.

[Wind_FURY]

Personally, the best times to buy the dip and HODL to be comfortable are gone. I don't want my friends to be stressed. They don't have the same mentality as us, who can HODL. If I told them to buy Bitcoin at $40,000, crashed to $33,000, then I believe they would have sold, and tell me that I am a scammer. I want to avoid that. Hahaha.

Fair enough. My friends were too scared to buy in the $30-42K range, so I told them the "safe" place to buy is at 30-40% down from the last peak.

I doubt any of them will actually pull the trigger now that the market is crashing, but anyone who does and gets in near $25K or $27K is going to be very happy down the road.

I would start talking some people into buying if it crashes under $20,000, and be ready to dollar-cost-average their position.

Do you remember this conversation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5238343.msg54805879#msg54805879

The girl in the right-most panel are the people currently buying.

Sure, but this is only like.....stage 1 FOMO. We've got several more stages to go before this bubble is over.

Then what's the hurry? $10,000 was the right time in my opinion, not $40,000. Wait for Bitcoin to take a breather.

[tranthidung]

I don't mean to nitpick and I realize English is probably not your native language but the word "retailer" means a merchant or retail seller.

The word you want in this context is "consumer" which means a user or customer.

A retailer sells to a consumer.

@Jimbo. I thank you a lot for the explanation and frankly you are right that English is not my native language.

However, I know the meaning of retailer that is an opposite of whole-saler and I was confused first time I read news (example) about it in crypto. So, from my interpretation, it seems to be distorted (it is not strange) and used to imply about small components on the market (which can be buyers or sellers at different times). News companies use that word as an opposite of whales. Then, I accept such meaning and use it this way. Is it correct?

I doubt any of them will actually pull the trigger now that the market is crashing, but anyone who does and gets in near $25K or $27K is going to be very happy down the road.

Such people probably never join the bitcoin market. They only want and regret. I have my friend that considered to join the market for 2 years (2019 to 2020). I am busy and sometimes I could not arrange to meet him and give him a quick guide into bitcoin market. I told him to prepare prerequisite things and I will meet him days or weeks later. Things have never been done. Then, when bitcoin rose to $41,000, he regretted.

This google trend also one of my basis if the FOMO begin from retailers just like what happened last 2017-2018 when we saw a massive run for Bitcoin.
This time is really different from the lastime since even the google trend does not yet reach the its previous all-time-high, price of Bitcoin already doubled, so I conclude that Bitcoin still got more room on upside price actions.

As being said, the power can be bigger but for now, bitcoin has been pulled back at the middle of the parabola. Somewhat, the naive estimation (in OP) is almost correct, just for now.

As being said, I expect bigger effects from both institutes and retailers. Game is set but beware of hiccups along the adventure in 2021.

The estimate in OP is 'naive' estimate, with many assumption from past data. It is impossible to calculate or estimate power of new investor sources.

[slapper]

Many indicators are found to support bitcoin. And if it is true, we can even have an even higher all-time high which around $50000 or something. Bitcoin is unstoppable now

Personally, I think this trend is just the beginning. There will be a lot of change in 2021 or I would like to say in this decade. New inventions are able to change our life as well as free us from the centralized system. More and more people put their faith in bitcoin whereas new retailers are joining on the same ship to start earning money. Even if they jump out of the ship, the number of believers continues to increase and that is a good sign for the cryptocurrency world.

[tranthidung]

Many indicators are found to support bitcoin. And if it is true, we can even have an even higher all-time high which around $50000 or something. Bitcoin is unstoppable now

Personally, I think this trend is just the beginning. There will be a lot of change in 2021 or I would like to say in this decade.

The today crash is a finish of the Elliot wave for this round of bitcoin bull run. After the correction that might last a bit long, a new bull run will be started and it will be a big one. I see the price from $60,000 to $100,000 is possible if consider the all time high is a middle of a parabolic arc. According to this tweet, Mayer Multipler bands, or Stock-to-Flow model

Higher price, I don't know but of course I wish it happens. There is scenario for a spike to $48,000 or above and then pull back, as this model shows. I don't bet on it and I am not obsessed with models.

Another user has own opinion and visual chart for 2021 Elliot wave

New inventions are able to change our life as well as free us from the centralized system.

Don't trust much on promises on any innovation from crypto companies. Promises will be evaporated with bearish market.

[tranthidung]

Ignore all potential and real bias or uncertain factors, those charts disclose a general picture of the market (new inflow of observers, investors, capital)

Another way to detect retail effects

• Twitter followers of Crypto exchanges and Youtube's subscribers of influencers.
• Upticks on those bar charts indicate something.

Sources:

• https://twitter.com/mrjasonchoi/status/1351199407199420419
• Get real-time charts from
  
  • https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/social
  • https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/social/new-weekly-youtube-subscribers-of-influencers

Now, ignore them and take a glance at the chart for Pageviews of Bitcoin Wikipedia's page. It shows people searched, were directed to that page and maybe spent more time (assumed so) to read Bitcoin Wiki. The more knowledgeable they are, the higher probability that they will spend capital (or spend more) to invest in bitcoin. Many of them are future of bitcoin market.

[tranthidung]

Update guys.

• Google trend stats for the search with Bitcoin keyword has almost a free-fall in recent weeks. If you notice, the rate of this fall (~ 50%) is much bigger than the rate of bitcoin price correction.
• Ignore the bias or algorithms used by Google, the stats (for bitcoin search) shows people mostly or only search for Bitcoin when it has good rising tide. When it falls in price, people don't search more than usual even media still spreads news about it.
• Google trend stats for the search with Bitcointalk keyword has still been almost stable. It moves up and down but generally is stagnant.
• Daily volume of bitcoin is falling.

[tranthidung]

• Google Trend statistics are more volatile with Bitcoin search rather than Bitcointalk (bitcointalk.org) search
• I am guessing most of new accounts were registered and made posts on the forum recent months are old people who are familiar with the forum. Very limited new registered members are new and knew about the forum with Google Search engine in 2020 or early 2021.
• Statistics for Bitcoin keyword decreased and can drop deeper before bouncing back. Or it can bounce back from current range
• These charts don't give any clue that price will move upwards or downwards but it proves that retail investors are weak hands (as always)
• Volume of bitcoin on exchanges have been decreasing and currently stays at the same level as in 2020

[worle1bm]

The Google trend also show rise in Bitcoin searches across the browser in Japan with more than 400% and the bull run has just started in the market once again.The institutional and retail investors both have invested huge amounts in Bitcoin market this quarter which have pushed the prices this high although institutional investments are in group or less transactions as they have huge balance with them compared to retail investors who have invested in small proportions due to money restrictions.But we all have pushed the prices to $60k mark in 2021 which was not possible from 2017 crash.So be positive about its growth and ready to face bearish market aslo.