Anything is possible, but if the SEC sticks to those positions it had in the past, I don’t see how they would approve the ETF given that the BTC is still not regulated by their standards.
a lot of their prior complaints have been mitigated. the unregulated derivatives market (eg bitmex) has been cut down in size. the regulated (CFTC) derivatives market has grown significantly. as of a few weeks ago, the CME is now the largest futures exchange in the world by open interest.
https://www.coindesk.com/cme-tops-in-bitcoin-futures-rankings-amid-rapidly-growing-institutional-interestfake volume, another complaint by the SEC, is drastically down:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/few-big-exchanges-continue-to-report-fake-volumes-in-2019-chainalysisfrankly, there is so much investor interest in bitcoin that i don't think they have much choice. by refusing to provide regulated options for non-accredited investors, they are driving investors into unregulated markets, and that is not their goal.
As I already wrote, there is only one active app so far, so the question arises where are all those others who were interested a few years ago?
as we saw in 2017-18, the number of applications is not a gauge of the likelihood of approval.