What if Bitcoin drops to $15,000?

[ene1980]

Looking at the market right now it is impossible to predict that the market will go down below $15000 until there is a big correction and right now the market is around $38,417 and if we see a correction then all the big investors will dump all their investment and the fall could be bigger and if that happens it will take a much longer time to recover. $50k is inevitable looking at the current valuation before we see any major correction.

[JimboToronto]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.  The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher.  

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%.  Many alt coins crashed 99% lol.  

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of poor recovery outlook.  

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies.  As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators.  

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses.  Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%.  

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol.  It's a cycle.  Just search this forum in 2018 and look at the pessimism.  When the prices are low, people lose faith.  When the prices are high people lose sight/IQ.

Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions.  Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom.  Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.

Well look at that... a noob telling experienced Bitcoiners what is what, or is this just your newest account. If so, what was your old user name?
___

Nobody is saying Bitcoin can't crash by 80% of its value but the chance of it happening this early in the bull run is extremely unlikely.

You also have to consider that previous bubbles were driven by retail FOMO and crashed by retail weak hands. Institutional investors don't have weak hands.

The current bull run has been largely the result of institutional investment. Retail FOMO is just starting to join the party. When the time for a major correction occurs it will probably be much smaller than during retail-based runs.
___

Anything can happen. Black swan events occur... e.g. last March's short-lived Covid-19 crash.

Actual experience is the best teacher. How many of these cycles have you ridden out?

[Wysi]

Yes in case if Bitcoin drops down to $15k we will have users lined up to fill their wallet with bitcoin because nobody would like to waste one more opportunity to buy at low, but as usual there will be FUDs lile we had FUDs during January 2019 when Bitcoin was struggling. But again patience and emotional control place a major role here because some of them who are not familiar with market and recently invested into bitcoin will panic sell thus causing blow to value of Bitcoin which will gradually improve when users reinvest into Bitcoin. I don't think Bitcoin will go back to $15k atleast in first quarter of 2021.

[Pearls Before Swine]

If bitcoin fell down to $15k, I would definitely buy as much as I can I've already had such an opportunity when BTC went down below 4k but then I had less hope in the crypto market.

You had less faith in the market because the price was dropping, and that's the whole point of buying low and selling high.  You have to have the stomach to buy bitcoin when things aren't looking so rosy.  It's real easy to start buying it now that it's being mentioned on all sorts of mainstream media news outlets and the price seems to be going up every day.  But that's when the smart people are selling, the ones who bought bitcoin when it was being slaughtered.

Just remember that if and when bitcoin hits a price point like $15,000 again.

[Kelvinid]

If Bitcoin drops to $15,000, many institutions would likely load up and drive it closer to $100,000. Thoughts?

I understand that some get worried about the possible huge correction and that is what we exactly have to prepare in the future as it can't be avoided, that even $10k or even below. I believe that this can be happing in times that institutional investors are done and full already which the demand will possibly be going down.

But, if that time will come, I know that small investors or even some merchants are happy as they can buy more Bitcoin for a cheap price.
I'm sure that some have that plan already and they are just waiting for the right time.

[thecodebear]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.  The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher.  

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%.  Many alt coins crashed 99% lol.  

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of poor recovery outlook.  

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies.  As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators.  

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses.  Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%.  

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol.  It's a cycle.  Just search this forum in 2018 and look at the pessimism.  When the prices are low, people lose faith.  When the prices are high people lose sight/IQ.

Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions.  Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom.  Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.

Been around since 2013. Not worried about $15k prices. Just like I wasn't worried about a $1000 price once the bull run heated up in 2017.
There will be corrections, but prices like $15k are long gone. And we also can't compare what will happen in the future to previous cycles. Institutions are changing the game. We could have no big bear market at all in the years to come, or we could have one in a year or so but the price goes to $200k or $300k first and only drops to $100k in the bear market. It's becoming a different market now that big money is stepping in. Don't expect the same rules apply as when most of the money coming into the market was from people FOMOing into the market having just heard of Bitcoin and having no idea what they were doing and thinking they were about to be rich.

[coinbiz]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.  The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher.  

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%.  Many alt coins crashed 99% lol.  

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of poor recovery outlook.  

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies.  As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators.  

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses.  Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%.  

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol.  It's a cycle.  Just search this forum in 2018 and look at the pessimism.  When the prices are low, people lose faith.  When the prices are high people lose sight/IQ.

Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions.  Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom.  Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.

Well look at that... a noob telling experienced Bitcoiners what is what, or is this just your newest account. If so, what was your old user name?
___

Nobody is saying Bitcoin can't crash by 80% of its value but the chance of it happening this early in the bull run is extremely unlikely.

You also have to consider that previous bubbles were driven by retail FOMO and crashed by retail weak hands. Institutional investors don't have weak hands.

The current bull run has been largely the result of institutional investment. Retail FOMO is just starting to join the party. When the time for a major correction occurs it will probably be much smaller than during retail-based runs.
___

Anything can happen. Black swan events occur... e.g. last March's short-lived Covid-19 crash.

Actual experience is the best teacher. How many of these cycles have you ridden out?

Noob because I deleted many of my old posts.  I registered in Jan 2014.  Had hundreds of posts before, decided to delete them for certain reasons.  Bought bitcoin in 2012-2013.  Not worried about any price drops, just find it funny how sentiment changes so quickly during the bull / bear markets.  It's literally day and night.  All skepticism seems to escape during a bull run and all faith is gone during a bear market.  I've ridden out plenty of waves.  

I suppose I'm a bit against the idea of institutional investment in general.  I want them out.  That's some bias I have.  Bitcoin was intended to destroy the existing financial institutions and replace them.  I'm a bit bummed that all the craze these days is about which big bank is hopping on the crypto wave.  

[bitterguy28]

After posting this one and looks Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC) is hitting new highs almost every few hours!

https://coinmarketcap.com/id/headlines/news/bitcoin-btc-at-34000-average-trader-returns-at-historic-high-levels/

Now here you are Posting in different manner in which Bearish ?

No wonder what would be you next Post from he re.


_________________


There's No ay that we can expect this dump sooner , Market is stronger than the past , it can sustain the needs and the demand for the whole year round.

[thecodebear]

I suppose I'm a bit against the idea of institutional investment in general.  I want them out.  That's some bias I have.  Bitcoin was intended to destroy the existing financial institutions and replace them.  I'm a bit bummed that all the craze these days is about which big bank is hopping on the crypto wave.  

That line has always been complete bullshit.

Bitcoin is an open payment and value storage network. It's not an army! It's not some revolutionary force coming to take over banks and throw the bankers in the streets. It's a technology, free to use by anyone, including banks. THAT'S the point!

Unlike the current system, which favors the people with money and power and makes it hard for those that don't already have those things to gain them, Bitcoin doesn't favor anyone, but it doesn't disfavor anyone either. You literally just have to buy in to get the advantages, and the earlier you buy in, the more you gain as a reward for understanding that Bitcoin/crypto is the future of money.

You can't want the institutions out of Bitcoin anymore than you can want anyone else out of Bitcoin. Saying you want some particular group of people out of Bitcoin is saying you want a new closed system that is identical to the old closed system except you just want the power now. You wanting banks out is completely antithetical to the whole idea of Bitcoin. Some people don't seem to understand what an open system is.

I'm always blown away when so-called bitcoiners say shit like this and don't realize they are promoting the exact system they claim to hate but just saying they want to be among the insiders who gets to pick and choose who may participate and profit off the system.

[LogitechMouse]

If Bitcoin drops to $15,000, many institutions would likely load up and drive it closer to $100,000. Thoughts?

I'm an open-minded person. I've always into probabilities when something related to investments or crypto is involved.
Now the chance of Bitcoin going down to $15,000?? 0% .

With the institutions coming into the market, it is a signal already that we are in a good position as of this moment and what happened in the past years where a huge decline happen is almost impossible to happen right now. There are some supports right now. $29,000 is considered a support right now which is the 20 daily MA followed by $23,000 which is the 50 daily MA. After all, Bitcoin to $15,000 seems impossible but a part of my head is telling that "anything is possible in crypto" .

[thecodebear]

Yeah $15k ain't a worry. For the current market play, I took a little profit at $38k and set buy orders with that at $33k and $35k. I doubt it'll even go that low but if it does I get a nice pickup. Looks like a little wedge is forming since the dip to $36k this morning, not sure if it will go below that. More likely we'll see further upside in the next few days.

[Botnake]

If Bitcoin drops to $15,000, many institutions would likely load up and drive it closer to $100,000. Thoughts?

Institutional investors are just like typical investors, they also have fear in investing and it's possible that they will panic when the price dump. of course not everyone, some will buy more and some will panic, but let's see what will happen because bitcoin is till bullish at the moment.

[exstasie]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K.

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

[robelneo]

If Bitcoin drops to $15,000, many institutions would likely load up and drive it closer to $100,000. Thoughts?

They are here, now and many more institutions are coming in, this will stabilize the price of the market and make it not fall to $15 k, PayPal continuously buying Cryptocurrency, and institution are now holding and still keep on buying they are targeting to be the major player in this technology I guess some experts prediction are coming true and we moving forward for the growth of the community.

[Ektra]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K.

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it. Scaling up to take account of the bigger, slower, deeper market we have now it seems to me totally plausible that the bubble could burst before 100k. Really the whole shape of the market since 2016 is strikingly similar to a macro version of 2012-13, with '17 being similar to the April 13 peak and this one shaping up to be like a slow motion nov '13. Conditions and sentiment are quite different now to 2017, the newbies are more optimistic than the old lot and you can tell this just by looking at the way the market has ratcheted up since early 2019. Very different to the uncertainty and doom of 14/15 and even '16. Just like late 2013 vs the people who felt the pain of the 2011 crash, people feel invincible.

Put another way, if 2017 was a big elliot wave III, this is the V, just like april 13 was the iii and november was the v.

Never say never but I think it may be unwise to get married to the idea of a 2017 rerun. We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017.

[Furious 7]

Yeah $15k ain't a worry. For the current market play, I took a little profit at $38k and set buy orders with that at $33k and $35k. I doubt it'll even go that low but if it does I get a nice pickup. Looks like a little wedge is forming since the dip to $36k this morning, not sure if it will go below that. More likely we'll see further upside in the next few days.

It is true that the trawl to buy at a price of 37k is enough but there is no possibility that this will be straightforward and in essence bitcoin will still be successful it should be in the next few days but I am here to maintain the correction when it starts to fly high so be ready to go down so we have to Be prepared at a predetermined number, but with many institutions that the bullrun is likely to continue many media outlets are reporting that this increase could lead to greater adoption of other companies.
Hope this can happen.

[LUCKMCFLY]

That is mere speculation, we cannot say that it will fall at that price, as the market is doing I think it is stabilizing at a good price, taking more liquidity, for now it is most likely that it will continue to rise, since there are many recognized companies that are betting for Bitcoin.

[thecodebear]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K.

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it. Scaling up to take account of the bigger, slower, deeper market we have now it seems to me totally plausible that the bubble could burst before 100k. Really the whole shape of the market since 2016 is strikingly similar to a macro version of 2012-13, with '17 being similar to the April 13 peak and this one shaping up to be like a slow motion nov '13. Conditions and sentiment are quite different now to 2017, the newbies are more optimistic than the old lot and you can tell this just by looking at the way the market has ratcheted up since early 2019. Very different to the uncertainty and doom of 14/15 and even '16. Just like late 2013 vs the people who felt the pain of the 2011 crash, people feel invincible.

Put another way, if 2017 was a big elliot wave III, this is the V, just like april 13 was the iii and november was the v.

Never say never but I think it may be unwise to get married to the idea of a 2017 rerun. We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017.

Depends on if you view 2013 at two separate bull runs, or a double peak in a single bull run. Granted there was a full 80% crash immediately after the first 2013 peak, though I believe it very quickly in a matter of days after that went to double the bottom price (~$45 to ~$105) so more like a 60% crash really. And then just 6 months later it had another peak 5x higher than the first peak.

Now I do agree we could get a double peak this year similar to '13. I think institutions are pushing this thing up too fast and they will start to get scared of stacking more sats if it goes up another 50% or so quickly. We could see a peak in the next month or two perhaps in the $60k - $80k range. But I don't think there is any way we get an 80% crash or have it take 6 months after that for it to start pushing new ATHs again like in 2013. Institutional investors would come back in at lower prices and stop the crash in its tracks.

It could be something like we go over $60k in Feb, then a couple weeks to crash down to $30k, it then stabilizes between $30k and $40k with institutions eating up all that cheap bitcoin from people who are still stupidly selling. Or maybe $50k is major resistance and it ranges between $40k and $50k for a month or so like at $20k. Then by April/May it's pushing back over $50k and heading towards and over $100k by late summer / early Fall. Maybe this then repeats and we see it crash back down under $100k over the Fall/Winter, and then by mid 2022 it's pushing past $200k.

For sure it is going up too fast, but that is because long term institutional buyers are getting in for the first time, and they have so much more money than was already in the market, even just throwing a very tiny amount of their money into Bitcoin is enormous compared to all the money that was previously in Bitcoin. So while the price is going up too fast, the floor is also rising dramatically. It won't be too long before the floor is where the price currently is, in which institutions would jump at the chance to buy Bitcoin at $40k on a correction.

[exstasie]

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

The late '13 pump 'only' reached 4x the previous ATH of $260. And then it famously crashed well below it.

That's arbitrary. April and November 2013 were obviously two legs of the same bubble cycle. After that bubble popped, price remained comfortably above the 2011 high of $32.

Same idea after the 2017 bubble popped, with price remaining comfortably above the 2013 high of $1,163.

There is no guarantee this pattern will continue of course, but I wouldn't bet against it.

We're already just as vertical as the steepest parts of 2017.

To me, the angle looks like the April-May leg of the 2017 rally.

[fullhdpixel]

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.

Sure, but from where?

Bitcoin just crossed the 2017 ATH, and is only 2x above it. For it to crash into a bear market now would be totally unprecedented. We could go an order of magnitude higher first.

So yeah, an 80% drop from $300K? Definitely possible! But that gets you $60K, not $15K.

Another data point working against you: no Bitcoin bear market has ever broken below the prior cycle's ATH. For that reason, sub-$20K is probably off the table.

Also even if there is a 15k level, that means we would be higher than what it was in early September, so it would be a fall not that far from now. Back when price reached 20k and dropped to 3k, it dropped to a level that was hard to recover from, it took us years to get back here, and we just doubled that in no time. It means if it ever went to 15k, we would still have a better base to get back higher as well, it would be simpler.

And we are not done going up like you said, which means we could potentially be at super high levels and still go down to higher than previous levels. I disagree that it will be 300k, but if it is 100k, that means even with a 80% drop which I doubt will happen, it is going to be 20k. That is why this drop doesn't really scare me, I am fine with it and I think whenever that crash comes, it is going to be not too harsh.