$80k within 6 weeks, new ATH October 2021

[Luthier]

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

[1715558895]

1715558895

[jackg]

Just recently I made a post on how people can't predict the top very well because the last time we had a rally we seemed to go a bit like 10k->17k>13k>20k so a similar thing is probably likely (got a feeling these were a month at least a part from each other too though I don't remember the numbers exactly).

I barely participated in the last tmone though, just sold once we'd stabalised around 6-7k and bought back later (2018).

[error08]

Bitcoin hit $37,7k as the highest price so far, but it seems not going to stop there, we might see it reach $40k by this week.
within 6 weeks means bitcoin reach $80k in February? What will be the new ath then, $150k-$200k?
Too far to get that price from this point imho, for starters we have to anticipate if there is a significant correction after bitcoin be able to achieve $40k, then we can predict for the next target of $50k, then $60k, $70k, so on and so forth, though for now I won't expect excessively.

[exstasie]

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

This is no man's land. In my book, hardly anyone has credibility.

The momentum is incredible, indeed. I've been considering the possibility of an April 2013-like run up (and subsequent consolidation) too. The best candidates based on the growth so far are March-April 2013 and April-May 2017. Both powerful, but the former went further, faster, in a much more spectacular blow-off top.

Does this mean we get another 83% crash after the first peak? Imagine running up to $140K then dropping back to $25K. That's the magnitude of April 2013. What a roller coaster that would be!

[Poker Player]

This is no man's land. In my book, hardly anyone has credibility.

The momentum is incredible, indeed. I've been considering the possibility of an April 2013-like run up (and subsequent consolidation) too. The best candidates based on the growth so far are March-April 2013 and April-May 2017. Both powerful, but the former went further, faster, in a much more spectacular blow-off top.

Does this mean we get another 83% crash after the first peak? Imagine running up to $140K then dropping back to $25K. That's the magnitude of April 2013. What a roller coaster that would be!

Yes, the truth is that with the bull run, one does not stop seeing threads like this and it seems that people forget that at some point the price will have to come down. Usually if the price goes very high very fast, the crash will be worse also. The fundamentals are good, the current situation with institutional investors, shortage of supply, etc. too, but there may be something we are not considering now that will drive the price down.

[btc_angela]

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

The replay has already happen in 2020, we are in a different territory now, $80k could be touch this year, or even 6 digits as this is a very fast bull run market, more than 2017's last peak. Of course, there will be pullback, but it doesn't matter as we are short in bitcoins, many are waiting in the wing to just even get in as .01 - .1 BTC.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

Good for you, I will assume that you have your bags filled many years ago at a cheap price.

[thecodebear]

Yeah I could totally see a double top happening this year. Though it won't be anything like 2013 in which there was a full on ~80% crash that was just short lived compared to other ~80% drops.

With how much institutional demand there is and how little supply there is, plus gradually growing retail demand as well (especially with Paypal recently joined), this thing is going much higher soon. The only thing that is gonna cause a correction is institutions decide it has gone up too far too fast and they wait for it to drop before getting back in at better prices. It does feel like price could hit $70k-$80k in March or April (I dunno about 6 weeks), at which point I do think institutions would get scared of a bubble forming and they'd wait for cheaper prices. Those that view it as protection against inflation and a store of value wouldn't sell at this point as they are holding for many years, but those that view it as a powerful trade to ride will sell to buy back lower, helping the correction along.

In such a case we'd see a decent correction and then institutions would start coming back in lower, sucking up even more retail and whale supply. Because that institutional demand will still very much be there, I don't think this correction would last more than a few months total from top, to bottom, back to previous top. After reaching a much higher floor than where this started at $10k, they'd feel better about pushing the price over $100k for another peak towards the end of the year probably. I see this sort of dynamic playing out repeatedly over the next few years - a few months of institutional buy-in, then let it fall back down to a new higher base price for a few months, then another buy-in, and repeat.

[nelson4lov]

Before we become overzealous and forget that this is a market and our opinion plays a minor role compared to the larger majority. While we're all in for Bitcoin to reach insanely high price levels, we should be able to ask ourselves this questions:

At what price would Bitcoin be too high for people to buy?

Or

When would people and institutions that bought bitcoin at low prices ($3.7K - $15K) take profits?
 

I don't know if anyone has noticed yet but those institutions investors that bought Bitcoin in huge quantities around $10K - $25K, why haven't they bought anymore Bitcoin since then?  Before we get too carried away and not take profit, we should remember this.  As much as Bitcoin's demand and supply go, there's a market and it doesn't just go up and stay there.

[pooya87]

You are missing the fact that the trend is not just a small one year one that you can compare it with 2017. Instead it is much longer and it takes about 4 years just like the one which ended in 2017 but started in 2014.
So far the trend from 2018 to today has been similar to the one from 2014 to 2016 and as we enter 2021 it is starting to become similar to the end of previous trend meaning 2017.

So it stands to reason to expect similar rise too meaning a rise to $80k which is 300% above the previous ATH should be similar to the rise to $3600 which was 300% above the ATH of that time and it took 7-8 months not 6 weeks.
That time frame makes more sense too for a 300% rise (compared to 50% a week) even though the momentum is currently very strong.
If anything shorter, we can see it in about 4-5 months considering 2017 had some road blocks such as the scaling debate slowing down the rise.

[thecodebear]

Before we become overzealous and forget that this is a market and our opinion plays a minor role compared to the larger majority. While we're all in for Bitcoin to reach insanely high price levels, we should be able to ask ourselves this questions:

At what price would Bitcoin be too high for people to buy?

Or

When would people and institutions that bought bitcoin at low prices ($3.7K - $15K) take profits?
 

I don't know if anyone has noticed yet but those institutions investors that bought Bitcoin in huge quantities around $10K - $25K, why haven't they bought anymore Bitcoin since then?  Before we get too carried away and not take profit, we should remember this.  As much as Bitcoin's demand and supply go, there's a market and it doesn't just go up and stay there.

Which institutions are you talking about and how do you know they haven't bought more? Microstrategy put everything they have into Bitcoin over the course of several buys so they don't have more to buy Bitcoin with. Other institutions just made their first initial investment to test it out and will gradually increase their positions no doubt. Probably a few institutions already built their positions to where they want it to be. Other institutions have been buying more. And of course new institutions will continue to buy for the first time.

Bitcoin is a long term growth asset. It is nowhere near the price in which people won't buy in anymore. There may not be such a price. People and institutions will continue to buy as long as they think their investment will increase in value. The main factor to how high people will be willing to buy Bitcoin is time. If it rises too fast buyers will stop, but over time they will get used to the price so they will buy higher.

[adaseb]

One thing that I know happens in BTC bull markets is that they very rarely give you a good dip, sometimes you might catch a good dip or two but eventually a dip will be the start of a bear market. So if BTC is pumping sometimes you need to chase it a little if you want to gain some profits. Waiting for a good dip isn't always a great way to enter because the dip might not come or it might not be the dip.

Nobody knows where this will stop. Might go to $50K might go to $100K. Because it to maybe wait for some massive correction and sell the 50% bounce of that correction. So if BTC goes to $100K and then pulls back to $50K, sell your position at $75K. If you look at previous bull tops, this scenario would of played out nicely. Sometimes you can even use the 0.618 fib instead of the 0.50 fib but there are times when it never reached the 618 fib and you would not get your order filled.

[plr]

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

I believe the momentum will keep going although there will be correction but these corrections are opportunities for investors to buy and stock more, I just hope there will be more good news coming in so we can sustain the bull run until last quarter of the year, this what we have been waiting to happen for so many years now.

[exstasie]

One thing that I know happens in BTC bull markets is that they very rarely give you a good dip, sometimes you might catch a good dip or two but eventually a dip will be the start of a bear market.

Looking back at the 2017 bull market, we saw the following dips.

• January 2017: 38%
• March 2017: 35%
• June-July 2017: 41%
• September 2017: 40%

And then if we look at the 2013 bull market, there was an 83% crash in April 2013 before the eventual blow-off top in November.

One could make the argument that this time is different, that institutional accumulation will limit the dips. But there's no way to claim past BTC bull markets didn't give good dips. They gave amazing chances for people to get back on the train, assuming they weren't too fearful to buy the dip.

[Luthier]

Good for you, I will assume that you have your bags filled many years ago at a cheap price.

I wish, in the past I've been too focused on cashing out instead of staying loyal through the bear markets    And then personal reasons prevented me from getting very involved in 2017.  But on this one I'm happy with myself for starting to buy in late July when I saw that nice breakout signal.  If you check my history from a few posts back I did accurately predict in 2017 that the low would be ~$3k on the following bear market.

[Luthier]

Yeah I could totally see a double top happening this year. Though it won't be anything like 2013 in which there was a full on ~80% crash that was just short lived compared to other ~80% drops.

With how much institutional demand there is and how little supply there is, plus gradually growing retail demand as well (especially with Paypal recently joined), this thing is going much higher soon. The only thing that is gonna cause a correction is institutions decide it has gone up too far too fast and they wait for it to drop before getting back in at better prices. It does feel like price could hit $70k-$80k in March or April (I dunno about 6 weeks), at which point I do think institutions would get scared of a bubble forming and they'd wait for cheaper prices. Those that view it as protection against inflation and a store of value wouldn't sell at this point as they are holding for many years, but those that view it as a powerful trade to ride will sell to buy back lower, helping the correction along.

In such a case we'd see a decent correction and then institutions would start coming back in lower, sucking up even more retail and whale supply. Because that institutional demand will still very much be there, I don't think this correction would last more than a few months total from top, to bottom, back to previous top. After reaching a much higher floor than where this started at $10k, they'd feel better about pushing the price over $100k for another peak towards the end of the year probably. I see this sort of dynamic playing out repeatedly over the next few years - a few months of institutional buy-in, then let it fall back down to a new higher base price for a few months, then another buy-in, and repeat.

This is exactly what I see happening as well.  In a more "sane" world, the correction at $35k would have lasted a few weeks, but instead it turned into panic selling and rebuying.  Don't underestimate the stimulus checks/money printing, and I think we may have another (bigger) round in the US to coincide with the early top I'm predicting  

[Becky666]

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.
<snip>

Nobody actually know what this year will hold becasue it wasn't here with us before. Considering what the past has told shouldn't be use to discuss this present, there wasn't any institutional investments in the past except the just passed year 2020, so, we're into another phase of Bitcoin that will take another year to study against the past. With the current momentum, we are likely to stop soon in this bullish run not when $80k is be torch.

[kentrolla]

BTC is already in bullish trend and we are experiencing this nearly from the past 4-5 weeks, but this doesn't mean it will keep on following this bullrun comparing to the current BTC price it is half way far from now, 80k till 2021 is possible but still it depends on the demand.

I am confused who are all buying BTC in so much huge price I know institutional investors are a part, apart from that FOMO plays a key role then local public should be investing in my opinion.

[forestx]

I am not going to lie I am quite scared. It is going up extremely quickly with ATH daily or even hourly. It seems well over heated
100k was my lowest prediction for this cycle but I am concerned it may crash before than. When it dumps its going to dump hard

[Luthier]

I am not going to lie I am quite scared. It is going up extremely quickly with ATH daily or even hourly. It seems well over heated
100k was my lowest prediction for this cycle but I am concerned it may crash before than. When it dumps its going to dump hard

Yeah, it is definitely starting to overheat in a big way.  These last few weekly candles are about the same size as the ones in Nov-Dec. 2017 on a log scale.  I don't think it can keep this up much longer, which is why I think we're going to see a pretty big blow-off top quite soon actually.  The huge backing of institutional demand is definitely a game-changer though.

[dothebeats]

At this point in time, those who have big amounts of coins in their stash could have been playing with the volumes and the prices on all exchanges. It could also be that the common folk together with institutional investors finally made up their minds and invested in bitcoin. There are a lot of reasons that can push these higher highs into reality, that it's no longer doubtful that we will be able to reach those price ranges that were once considered 'absurd' and improbable. The only thing that worries me is where will the money come from once the price for this particular cycle becomes too high? I'm pretty sure people have been asking this same question and I can't seem to find some compelling answers to that as of late.