Can BTC go down to <$5k again now?

[RealMalatesta]

How do you reconcile that with the drop to 1/4 of the price in the first four months of 2018? Was there a similar existential threat to BTC then too?

No. See the bolded phrase for emphasis.

That crash took place after magnitudes larger gains than those realized in this bull run. BTC broke the 2013 highs in January 2017. The bubble lasted a year. By December 2017, BTC had extended 16x above those 2013 highs.

In this case, the 2017 highs were only broken 1 month ago, and BTC has extended a mere 2x above the 2017 high. That's 1 year vs. 1 month and 16x vs. 2x. You're really expecting an 80%+ bear market crash already?

For this bubble to pop so much quicker than previous bubbles, and for the subsequent crash to also be so much harder than previous crashes.....that would indicate to me that something is different this time.

I would assume the only thing logical about the crash would be the amount required and not the percentage. For example in order for price to go over 1.5k to 20k it required less money versus the money required to make it from 20k to 40k, because each time you buy at 5k to make it 10k, you bought it at 5k, but right now you bought it at 30k to increase it, so people are spending more and more money to buy bitcoin to increase it.

I am not saying crash would come quicker, I am not saying we will not be going any higher, I think we are still in a bull market and we are still going to go up a lot more, I just wanted to explain what the crash expectations are all about. Since the money required is a lot more these days, same people expect bitcoin to be a lot lower right now due to how much money was required, that is why I believe they think it may go down.

[exstasie]

I would assume the only thing logical about the crash would be the amount required and not the percentage. For example in order for price to go over 1.5k to 20k it required less money versus the money required to make it from 20k to 40k, because each time you buy at 5k to make it 10k, you bought it at 5k, but right now you bought it at 30k to increase it, so people are spending more and more money to buy bitcoin to increase it.

I am not saying crash would come quicker, I am not saying we will not be going any higher, I think we are still in a bull market and we are still going to go up a lot more, I just wanted to explain what the crash expectations are all about. Since the money required is a lot more these days, same people expect bitcoin to be a lot lower right now due to how much money was required, that is why I believe they think it may go down.

Possible, but I have 2 things to say on that.

First, you're only considering demand, not supply. If, for example, available supply is halved, then all else equal, price should double. Bubbles are all about supply evaporating from exchanges.

You also may be underestimating demand. Many investors do not FOMO; they are waiting to absorb selling pressure in any crash. No way they let it go down to $5K, or anywhere near it, for the same reason BTC has never been able to break the 200-week MA. The dry powder waiting to enter this market is immense and easily underestimated.

[shoreno]

based on many factors including electricity cost i don't think the miners and the holders itself will let that

why electricity cost suddenly involved ? but electrict cost right now are getting expensive , much more if your a miner or have a business in btc but if you stop mining and sell btc to pay electric bills .

btc will dumped but mining its not easy to say that mining will stop because it plays an important role to the btc transactions . hodlers cant also shake the price if they are not big hodlers , they dont decide if there will be a dump of  the price that will happen or not .

[Becky666]

The possible lower figure I can think about is $10k. Many are those waiting for this price range to take advantage. What I sense is that there will be high demand when price starts declining and that might hold it from further decreasing towards $5000.

Basically you have forgotten the recent downtrend which was big enough to have crashed bitcoin to $25k but becasue of the new investors there was a strong support at the $30k. This junctions mean alot to bitcoin development becasue it's a new support found. Having said this, Bitcoin can't go downward at low as $10k again, not even in the world to come IMO.

[yhiaali3]

I do not think that Bitcoin can drop anymore to  5K $ for many reasons, including that the main players in the market are different now than it was in 2018, there are now large institutions that have bought large quantities of Bitcoin and will certainly not allow the price of Bitcoin to drop in this way, Also, the adoption of Bitcoin has become much larger than before around the world, do not forget also that the quantities of bitcoin that are produced daily has been halved due to halving and this will make the quantities offered less with time and the demand for Bitcoin becomes greater.

[Silberman]

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

The crash at that time happened because of the panic caused by the pandemic and nothing more, the crash did not happened because there was something wrong with bitcoin or anything like that, external forces caused the crash and it is exceptional for that reason, truth to be told we do not even need institutional investors that level was on the verge of being left behind for good until that crash happened, in fact it is possible we will never see the price of bitcoin below 10k again as even a crash of 75% from its ATH of 42k will leave it above the 10k level.

[adaseb]

The reason why BTC dropped to $4K back in March was largely due to liquidity issues and the fact that most of the volumes was on derivative platforms like Bitmex. Most people weren't trading that day but the reason why it crashed to $4K (even slightly below $4K) was because there was maybe $1Billion in Long liquidations and there was absolutely no buyers who were taking the asks. So price kept going lower and lower.

Other exchanges also went lower due to the algo bots. However at a certain point in time. Many of these bots shut off their service and you could see when Bitmex was trading at like $500 discount compared to index exchanges. It kept going lower and lower. $1 Billion in asks and maybe $20 million in bids. And eventually Bitmex did a forced shutdown and they probably prevented BTC dropping to $0.

When they reopened it quickly recovered and we never saw that price again. Right now I don't see that happening since spot exchanges are leading the markets.

[Vaskiy]

During the previous bull market none expected the price to fall low to $5k. Once the market reached the ATH value, people were confident that the price will maintain a stabilized value as a standard one. This means, it is predicted that the price won't fall low to $10k at any situation. Everything happened exactly in the opposite manner with bitcoin dropping low to $5k. By that time fake volume issue from the exchanges also led to the drop in the price of bitcoin causing a big crash in the cryptomarket. Right now too, such scenario can happen. But, people are with good understanding about the market and the changes.

[Taskford]

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

The crash at that time happened because of the panic caused by the pandemic and nothing more, the crash did not happened because there was something wrong with bitcoin or anything like that, external forces caused the crash and it is exceptional for that reason, truth to be told we do not even need institutional investors that level was on the verge of being left behind for good until that crash happened, in fact it is possible we will never see the price of bitcoin below 10k again as even a crash of 75% from its ATH of 42k will leave it above the 10k level.

I think there's no relation with the past dump on pandemic since many new users came and other shift to use crypto to gain since their outside world job has been close down and when the time of pandemic where lockdown still happening the price of Bitcoin stabilize at good figures. And I agree with you on that we cannot see below $10k since by now bitcoin got strong support and huge adoption.

[JimboToronto]

Can BTC go down to <$5k again now? 

No.

[suzanne5223]

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

Despite the fact that the institutions been likely to hold Bitcoin even when it dump market it is still possible for Bitcoin to drop below $5K again but it not something we should expect now or this year cause it will happen when it market correction season.
I hope the institution understand this characteristic about the BTC market.

 

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

Retail investors with some whales that choose to sell is sufficient to influence dump in price of the market.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

The fundamental different is the current traffic the market gain now, the level of demand and supply.

[Ridwan Fauzi]

There is a possibility, bitcoin price up drastically will be accompanied with fall drastically too. Because many investor eithere instutional inveator or retail investor will have the same thing (a fear factor) so as they will sell immediately when bitcoin price continue to fall. This is what make bitcoin price fall to $3500 three years ago.

As for what make a different with the previous bull run, bitcoin was made by most people as an investment place. Yeah, we can differentiate with what has happened before, there were a few people who believe that bitcoin is the safe place for investing but now it has been changing. Also, passed the previous all time high will be made as a reason that bitcoin will back to the all time when its price touch a low price.

[KTChampions]

It is very interesting to ask whether Bitcoin might drop below $ 5000 again or not. My answer is impossible, because of the increase in Bitcoin
nowadays because many institutions have started investing in Bitcoin. Which means that institutional investment in Bitcoin is impossible for
the short term, because the institution is definitely investing  in Bitcoin for the long term. So now Bitcoin fundamentals are much stronger than
Bitcoin in 2017. So I doubt Bitcoin will drop below $ 5000 again, the lowest possibility is that Bitcoin price will only drop to $ 10,000.

The presence of institutional investors cannot guarantee anything. A lot of force majeure can happen both to them and to the external market (for example, the second wave of the economic crisis associated with the second wave of the pandemic). I do not believe in a fall to this level, but I admit such a possibility.

[sayaya17]

Although people’s understanding is already good about the crypto market, and it has already led to a big change to the adoption of bitcoin, it is not impossible also if bitcoin will touch low prices. But we never know what the lowest price bitcoin will reach after this bullrun. But still not sure if it will be as deep as touching at $5k. I expect bitcoin will one day touch the lowest possible price at $20k. But that’s not necessarily true, it could go down like at $15k.

[error08]

It's impossible at this point, not just because the institutional investors but the cycle of bitcoin make it that way. Adoption and acceptance worldwide create great support for bitcoin, scarcity due to halving and high demand lead the price to increase over time. The history noted that after bitcoin reach the peak, it may decline gradually throughout the years up to 80%-90%, if Bitcoin could reach $100k as the new ath, then $20k or $10k as the lowest price levels.

[Fredomago]

Although people’s understanding is already good about the crypto market, and it has already led to a big change to the adoption of bitcoin, it is not impossible also if bitcoin will touch low prices.

If being pressureed by high institutions that now also inside this market, hitting the lower value is always possible since once dumped takeover more weak holders still follow and leaves the market in heavy red.

But we never know what the lowest price bitcoin will reach after this bullrun. But still not sure if it will be as deep as touching at $5k.

The last time low after hitting $20K went up to $5K so if you'll assume same thing, most possibly it can go down to $10K but it's
always depends with the investors to where they bring this run.

I expect bitcoin will one day touch the lowest possible price at $20k. But that’s not necessarily true, it could go down like at $15k.

We do have our differences in terms of predicting, it's experienced that's allows us to assume our targets.

[hatshepsut93]

As of now, $10k is the new floor, this is where the rally started from, and it's already unlikely that it would crash that far even in a scenario where this bull run is over. $20k looks like a very solid support too. Simply put, something out of ordinary needs to happen to bring Bitcoin to such low prices. Maybe a cold wallet of some major exchange getting hacked and the coins being dumped on the market, or Satoshi's coins waking up.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Any figure may arrive because the market is very volatile, nothing is impossible, now the fact that it arrives so low right now I do not see it feasible, because there are many investors protecting their positions, in fact, I think it may be more reliable that it reaches the new ATH.

[Beparanf]

Any figure may arrive because the market is very volatile, nothing is impossible, now the fact that it arrives so low right now I do not see it feasible, because there are many investors protecting their positions, in fact, I think it may be more reliable that it reaches the new ATH.

Just like what you said. Investors with huge investment are protecting there position and we don't until when they will gonna hold that position. If one of the institutional investor like grayscale decides to dump all there holdings in the market, I'm not sure if 5K$ will be the lowest possible price of Bitcoin since it will create FUD.

[kentrolla]

Ahhh, I think it's impossible at this point of time because the price of BTC is in extreme peak. The dump will surely happen in few days or months as lot of institutional money has been poured for sure they will exit I mean they might sell based on the market conditions but 5k is not possible in my opinion we can see atleast 10k in upcoming days if you are interested to buy just wait patiently until the market goes to bear.