The best Bitcoin price analyst on the bitcointalk

[zasad@]

For almost 6 months I asked the forum participants about the price of bitcoin at the end of 2020
[Vote 2020] Best Bitcointalk Interview
I have researched their answers and am ready to name the best analysts.

227 people participated, interview number 228 was in 2021.

Results:




in the third quarter, many members of the forum thought that the optimal price would be about $ 15,000, and in the fourth quarter, some participants made a forecast for large amounts. But a lot of people were wrong.
If a member of the forum indicated a price range, for example $ 16000-20000, then I used the average value, calculated as $ 18000.

There are a lot of experienced users on the forum, but only 2 members of the forum indicated the approximate correct value

BitMaxz and  guigui371.

BitMaxz (Legendary)

14. How much will Bitcoin cost at the end of 2020?

"I don't know how much will be the price of bitcoin(Unpredictable) but before I believe that the price of bitcoin will reach around $30k. However, these days it's different it is not the same as what happen before after block halving."

14. How much will Bitcoin cost at the end of 2020?
Les than 45 days to go.  I legit have no idea. I would say less than $30k

And one forum member wanted to become a millionaire on December 31, 2020

This is a clear example of the fact that you should not listen to other users when they say the future prices of cryptocurrencies!

Later I will publish one more observation.

Cheers!

[irfan_pak10]

I would like to request my name should be added to the list if there is any, I predicted 40k  

Here on Jan 2 my prediction



and on that day price was



edit

Seeing this makes me, I should have predicted it $41k 

14. How much will Bitcoin cost at the end of 2020?
2020 is ending soon and I think it will be ~$14k

[Insanerman]

~

No one really expects that the end of 2020 would be the best ending year for the crypto market. Even I myself doesn't really expects the way BitMaxz and  guigui371 did. But in fact, it is really just a prediction right? Analyst is a term for traders that analyzes the market mostly in a short period of time. Still, I just hope they've hodl well that time so they can cheer right now in which the price is hits at 40,000 USD again. 

In the end, this just proves that the crypto market is indeed moves in various unexpected ways. You can be a millionaire/poor today with your holdings, but you can be millionaire/poor after you've wake up. 

[LTU_btc]

Well, it only shows how unpredictable crypto market is and it's almost impossible to predict what will happen just in few months, I'm not even talking about longer terms. This is why I'm not paying much attention to all these price predictions, even when person with solid knowledge are making it.
I predicted $12k, but I knew initially that my predictions sucks and it won't turn into reality . I really don't like to make such predictions, but I had to put something to answer question.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Go that is a great way to know the best prediction according to your interviews, I hope that due to those answers those users have been able to make investments and earn a lot! I hope that this 2021 the market will get much better, in 2019 many said that the market was bored, but they did not know that a good movement was brewing, that the good news continue. Congrats to those who got it right, they have a very good vision of the market!

[Renampun]

unexpected results...
btw, I myself guess the price of Bitcoin by 2020 will only be around $ 17k - $ 20k lol. it looks like those who correctly guess have a good analysis.

[btc_angela]

Well, it only shows how unpredictable crypto market is and it's almost impossible to predict what will happen just in few months, I'm not even talking about longer terms. This is why I'm not paying much attention to all these price predictions, even when person with solid knowledge are making it.
I predicted $12k, but I knew initially that my predictions sucks and it won't turn into reality . I really don't like to make such predictions, but I had to put something to answer question.

This one, it's really hard to predict because it's volatility, but in any case those users did make a educated guess. But 9/10 I could probably fail guessing the price movement, lol. And that's why most of the time I read other's predictions and then comment whether I agree with them or not. Lots of things can happen in the future specially that we have seen heavy price corrections. So let's see, this board really brings the best and worst of our technical analysis here.

[hugeblack]

Unfortunately, we are at the beginning of an upward curve, and no one expected us to reach $ 20,000 due to the data of what was happening in the past, as it took Bitcoin for several years to reach 1000 and a few years to break the 20,000 barrier, so it is normal for $ 40,000 or $ 30,000 to be a number that is difficult to predict.

This discrepancy in levels will accelerate the prediction that we will reach $ 10,000, or how much the price will be by the end of the year, is not possible at all.

[Coin_trader]

I'm interested to know there actual analysis on how they come up on that prediction. Is the 2 user use indicators and chart patterns to predict that price?

But the most important thing on this kind of price analysis was the accuracy of there prediction in quantity. Your interview is a good source of data, Maybe you should survey that question more frequently to determine accuracy too.

[Oasisman]

Well, it only shows how unpredictable crypto market is and it's almost impossible to predict what will happen just in few months, I'm not even talking about longer terms. This is why I'm not paying much attention to all these price predictions, even when person with solid knowledge are making it.

That's why predictions remains prediction and uncertain, regardless of how experienced and knowledgeable a person is, but the fact that these crypto market experts has enough experience, they're still a reliable source in prediction making. However, it's still uncertain, but they can somehow influence the market sentiments.

[zasad@]

Here's another research about the DEFI ecosystem.

I had to rephrase many of the answers, but I tried to keep the general meaning.

9.6% of respondents consider the DEFI ecosystem to be the future financial system
24.2% use or believe that the DEFI ecosystem can be used with care.
35.6% of users associate the system with a scam & ICO
26.4% of users have not heard about the DEFI ecosystem or are at a loss to answer
3.2% of users plan to explore or observe the DEFI ecosystem

227 people participated

[bekti3]

regardless of whether the prediction was the result of their own analysis or a coincidence that came true. but the most important thing is that all are almost close to the truth, even some are right on target. is that all a reason for us not to guess that by the middle of this year bitcoin will hit $ 100,000 for example. hahahah I forgot that what I said was limited to speculation. no more than that.

I congratulate everyone, without choosing any name, you are a dizna who has great benefits this year.

[GreatArkansas]

It feels good to be a good predictor and congrats to the two who came close. I just hope people do not build their investments around future predictions with the excuse that they (the acknowledged predictors) have been correct before and would still stand a great chance to be correct in their upcoming predictions.

The recent price action of Bitcoin which created a new all-time-high and almost doubled it was really unpredictable, even on the interview of zasad@ at this forum.
But I am sure those two got their analysis, technical or fundamental analysis to come up at those numbers.
But even those who are far at the price or even below at the close price, for sure their portfolio are in profits, they just not expected it. Congrats to all.

[zanezane]

It feels good to be a good predictor and congrats to the two who came close. I just hope people do not build their investments around future predictions with the excuse that they (the acknowledged predictors) have been correct before and would still stand a great chance to be correct in their upcoming predictions.

Kudos to their prediction but I do not think that alone is enough to call them analyst, a lot of people say things about the prices and the events that are happening and there are other people that have the same opinion although they vary if they ask the prices. If they really are a good analyst, shouldn't they be more confident about their predictions, @guigui371 seems to have no idea. Maybe the better word for it is predictor rather than analyst.

[zasad@]

You can argue about the words "analyst" or "predictor". But my research cannot answer another question, how many people started to act and buy cryptocurrency.
I have seen various analysts who have successfully predicted the markets but have invested very little.
How many of these people do you think bought bitcoins?

[Fundamentals Of]

You can argue about the words "analyst" or "predictor". But my research cannot answer another question, how many people started to act and buy cryptocurrency.
I have seen various analysts who have successfully predicted the markets but have invested very little.
How many of these people do you think bought bitcoins?

Because in the midst of their predictions are certain doubts. They are probably predicting in part on the basis of hope or wish.

The first follow up question would have been, do you personally believe in your own prediction? If they said no, then their predictions would look ridiculous. They would probably answer yes. And then you would therefore ask them, if you personally believe in your own prediction, then would you therefore buy Bitcoin today or tomorrow while the price has not yet began to rise as per your prediction?

The answer to that second follow up question would then reveal that despite them positive and in fact predicting high prices, they are still doubting if that ever happens in reality.

[Gozie51]

I'm interested to know there actual analysis on how they come up on that prediction. Is the 2 user use indicators and chart patterns to predict that price?

I think it is also good to know this. If they did the prediction based on analysis that they showed either in graph or chart to make it clearer for all about the way price will move after they predicted or they just predicted by doing guessing and just posting it here. Nice interview and congrats to those predicted correctly.

[buwaytress]

9.6% of respondents consider the DEFI ecosystem to be the future financial system
24.2% use or believe that the DEFI ecosystem can be used with care.
35.6% of users associate the system with a scam & ICO
26.4% of users have not heard about the DEFI ecosystem or are at a loss to answer
3.2% of users plan to explore or observe the DEFI ecosystem

I didn't look at all the respondents (and I know you contacted me but I have to apologise for not responding then) but I believe the majority of early respondents are what you'd say are typical "real" Bitcoin users.

Which means they have institutional memory about hype cycles on alternative networks. Which means they see "DeFi" for what it really is.

Old wolves dressed up in sheep's clothing. I know it's a sweeping statement and there are exceptions but the exceptions probably aren't worth the risk at the moment.

[Adamini]

Is there any basis for such a prediction?I would like to make a reference