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Author Topic: Hamish McRae: making reasonable predictions or just another speculator?  (Read 115 times)
kryptqnick
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January 10, 2021, 09:45:41 AM
 #1

Today I've watched this video which analyses predictions for life in 2020 in 1994 by Hamish McRae. There was no pandemic in those predictions, and he got some other things wrong, but overall the predictions were reasonable and close to what actually happened. And I've noticed in the video that this guy has an article on Bitcoin, so I decided to look into it.
Being careful about predictions, this guy is talking about the asset market in general, but considers Bitcoin as a part of it as well. And he thinks the whole thing will explode due to investors cashing out on their profits within this year.
Do you think this will happen to the asset market? If yes, do you think Bitcoin will face the same destiny and for the same reason?

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January 10, 2021, 03:33:28 PM
 #2

All the predictions that were before 2010 cannot be accurate, even 1%, because life has changed completely differently from the perspective of these people’s vision.

I read a book about what will happen in the year 2010 and it was written in 1910, there are some similarities in inventions but from the perspective of the way of life of that era.

There will not be a 100% cashing out on their profits from asset market or bitcoin because they are not a bubble. Bitcoin proves daily that it is far from being a bubble.
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January 10, 2021, 04:05:46 PM
 #3

If we have to refer back to the prediction, then I can hardly believe it 100% considering the asset as a whole, despite the fact that the current bitcoin sale is part of that prediction.
We examine from various angles, for example real estate and non-real estate assets, which one is the largest today? coupled with other types of assets besides bitcoin? it can be in the form of gold assets, or even company assets which are still the largest today.

We're completely here not to worry too much, hopefully this doesn't match up to Einstein's predictions about star dancing around supermassive black holes.

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January 11, 2021, 07:04:40 AM
 #4

And I've noticed in the video that this guy has an article on Bitcoin, so I decided to look into it.

Being careful about predictions, this guy is talking about the asset market in general, but considers Bitcoin as a part of it as well. And he thinks the whole thing will explode due to investors cashing out on their profits within this year.

Do you think this will happen to the asset market? If yes, do you think Bitcoin will face the same destiny and for the same reason?

He's being rational, but rationality doesn't always win out in markets. I think he and many other analysts fail to realize the sheer magnitude of QE and the fear of selling it's created in investors. This is not a traditional financial bubble paradigm. It's the bubble of all bubbles. I think there is a big danger in assuming it will pop so quickly as the dot-com or housing bubbles. This behavior could continue for years.

Popular sentiment is also quite fearful. Everyday there is new FUD about corona virus mutations and vaccine shortcomings, fears about too little stimulus heading off recession, fears about too much stimulus heading off inflation. You name it, people are fearmongering about it. But the market keeps rising and rising.

This is classic "wall of worry" behavior, with the markets still in disbelief from the scope of recovery since the March 2020 crash. In my experience, this is still early bull market behavior. We still have a long way to go before things get truly frothy.

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January 11, 2021, 10:55:42 AM
 #5

I absolutely second extasie's thoughts on this. We are witnessing the least rational market behaviour the world has probably ever witnessed: with all the mess around the globe markets feel astonishingly disconnected from the reality we see outside the window.
I wouldn't be completely sure we're in an early bull market behaviour but, as things are moving forward, it's becoming increasingly hard to understand the market rationale and behaviour.
I didn't know about the wall of worry but it seems to fit the narrative of what we are witnessing.
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January 13, 2021, 09:43:08 AM
 #6

Husires, his predictions 25 years ago were just about life in 2020 in general, and he got many things close. As for Bitcoin, obviously these are not the predictions he made before 2010, they're very recent, actually.

exstasie, I'm not sure it's the bubble of bubbles, as unlike other cases, Bitcoin manages to recover eventually every time, reinstating its value. But maybe you're right that we're in the early bull market stage.
And should Bitcoin be considered together with other markets after all, or is it something separate?

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January 14, 2021, 04:52:24 PM
 #7

And he thinks the whole thing will explode due to investors cashing out on their profits within this year.
Do you think this will happen to the asset market? If yes, do you think Bitcoin will face the same destiny and for the same reason?

It is very much possible to happen! Not only in bitcoin but also in real-world markets! I have some investments in equity related mutual funds and this year, I am currently sitting on 28% profit and really tempted to cash them out! Same thing is happening with my bitcoin and altcoin holdings as well but I am just trying to hold for some more time!

Crypto market and stock market, both are seeing new heights around the world after the covid vaccine as the economy is slowing coming back to track. It is not impossible to see another crash like early 2018 this year. But that's another opportunity for us!

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January 15, 2021, 09:12:42 AM
 #8

Seems investors are more interested in new highs than sustainablity of the rally. I wouldn't support or be against the prediction because there is no way I am aware of that can prevent extreme volatility. So things can easily move to either extremes if there is no control mechanism to prevent them, promote moderate and sustainable price movements.

Who actually moves ^ the Bitcoin market? Watch as price moves in few days from now(26th April) with mere posts.
*Bitcoin current price April 26th 2022, about $38-39,000
Here is what happened after April 26th https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5396744.msg60008904#msg60008904
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