Ray Dalio: What I Think of Bitcoin

[fillippone]

The legendary Bridgewater investor Ray Dalio said: "I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention" on a newsletter sent to his investors.

'Bitcoin won't escape our scrutiny': Bridgewater is exploring an alt-cash fund in the face of money devaluation

"I am writing this to clarify what I think of Bitcoin," Dalio wrote in the column Bridgewater Daily Observations — the firm's daily newsletter sent by the CIOs to its clients, one of whom shared details with The Block. "I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention."

Dalio previously said that he didn't think bitcoin would work as an everyday currency. He stepped back a bit from his longstanding critique of bitcoin last month, saying that cryptos like bitcoin could be a "gold-like asset."

I like the man, as, opposite of other supposed Wall Street Guru, is able to change his own mind, that is already quite focused on the "big scheme" mindset (while other investors are more focused on the sorter-horizon themes)

Here you can read the full newsletter:

What I Think of Bitcoin



The most relevant passage:

I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention. To have invented a new type of money via a system that is programmed into a computer and that has worked for around 10 years and is rapidly gaining popularity as both a type of money and a storehold of wealth is an amazing accomplishment. That, like creating the existing credit-based monetary system, is of course a type of alchemy—i.e., making money out of little or nothing. It, like the making of credit that made bankers rich starting with the Medicis around 1350, is making its inventors and those who got in on it early very rich and has the potential to make many more people very rich and to disrupt the existing monetary system. Those who have built it and supported the dream of making this new kind of money a reality have done a fabulous job of sustaining that dream and moving Bitcoin (by which I mean it and its analogous competitors) into being an alternative gold-like asset.

The table below, which is meant only to be illustrative and is clearly very simple, estimates a Bitcoin price if a certain amount of private gold savings (i.e., not including central banks) were to diversify into Bitcoin. More specifically, in the bottom row in the table, we assume half of the combined market cap of Bitcoin and privately held gold savings is allocated to Bitcoin. Combined, that would be roughly $1.6 trillion allocated across all bitcoins that have ever been mined. Such a shift from gold, diversifying into Bitcoin, could in theory raise the Bitcoin price by at least 160%.

[Broly46]

Don’t call it an invention, it’s the future! And when we first use it we already know it’s the future, just like once we discover internet during its infancy.

[Twentyonepaylots]

Most of these Wall Street Bankers don't have you, or their clients in their minds anyway so it would make sense how they hate bitcoin which literally makes everyone become an investor, a banker, and a trader of themselves without the need for these iffy boomers. Unlike Ray Dalio who is very optimistic and open-minded in his views, a majority of Wall Street Giants have been working on the same strat, same stock to generate passive income, then make a fool out of unsuspecting investors to make huge gains. That's how things went in Wall Street and they are afraid of losing this lavish lifestyle they got because of crypto, so they'll do everything they can to stop it.

[Lorence.xD]

Most of these Wall Street Bankers don't have you, or their clients in their minds anyway so it would make sense how they hate bitcoin which literally makes everyone become an investor, a banker, and a trader of themselves without the need for these iffy boomers. Unlike Ray Dalio who is very optimistic and open-minded in his views, a majority of Wall Street Giants have been working on the same strat, same stock to generate passive income, then make a fool out of unsuspecting investors to make huge gains. That's how things went in Wall Street and they are afraid of losing this lavish lifestyle they got because of crypto, so they'll do everything they can to stop it.

Fighting the change is not a good thing in the long run, in the early stages it may work but it can back fire if the change is a real deal, good thing that Dalio knows how to play the game, he knows that the current exploitative system of Wall Street is going to be destroyed by this new and more population friendly cryptocurrency and so he changes sides which is a good thing for bitcoin because many people will be following him in his footsteps which is another increase in demand for bitcoin. I do agree with bankers and stock brokers not having your best interest, they pocket commissions and that is what makes them rich, I remember that quote in Wolf of Wall Street about the work of brokers getting a commission in expense to the client switching their stocks to a more profitable one. Luxury is a very addicting thing and these people losing it will be a good punishment for them, let them have the taste of their own medicine.

[OROBTC]

Most of these Wall Street Bankers don't have you, or their clients in their minds anyway so it would make sense how they hate bitcoin which literally makes everyone become an investor, a banker, and a trader of themselves without the need for these iffy boomers. Unlike Ray Dalio who is very optimistic and open-minded in his views, a majority of Wall Street Giants have been working on the same strat, same stock to generate passive income, then make a fool out of unsuspecting investors to make huge gains. That's how things went in Wall Street and they are afraid of losing this lavish lifestyle they got because of crypto, so they'll do everything they can to stop it.

I'm not sure that Wall Street really hates Bitcoin that much...  Once the bankers have identified a good way to make money, they move into it.  It will likely take some time, but if BTC keeps going up due to buying pressure by consumers, companies buying BTC for their treasuries and/or their competition buying  it, then we may see real fireworks.

There will be resistance by the cohorts on Wall Street that have something to lose as well as their pals at the SEC and other regulators.

Dalio, IMO, is smart to be looking at BTC.  He is a very smart guy who can see trends developing.  But, he is a core member of the Financial Elite and a Swamp Creature, worth keeping that in mind.

[aoluain]

-snip-

The most relevant passage:

I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention. To have invented a new type of money via a system that is programmed into a computer and that has worked for around 10 years and is rapidly gaining popularity as both a type of money and a storehold of wealth is an amazing accomplishment. That, like creating the existing credit-based monetary system, is of course a type of alchemy—i.e., making money out of little or nothing. It, like the making of credit that made bankers rich starting with the Medicis around 1350, is making its inventors and those who got in on it early very rich and has the potential to make many more people very rich and to disrupt the existing monetary system. Those who have built it and supported the dream of making this new kind of money a reality have done a fabulous job of sustaining that dream and moving Bitcoin (by which I mean it and its analogous competitors) into being an alternative gold-like asset.

He says all the right things in this excerpt and this is pretty much what Michael Saylor has
been banging on about for a few months now.

"storehold of wealth"
"gold-like asset"

So many investors are talking about it and some are being vocal about it like Dalio

While we generally might not like a lot of these Wall Street types entering the Bitcoin space
and how they are bringing more scrutiny on Bitcoin from regulators they are satisfying
the expectations which many have to see further adoption and an increase in value

[Haunebu]

Never heard of this guy before, but I agree with his viewpoint regarding BTC and cryptocurrencies in general. I never expected a decentralized currency like BTC to actually compete head to head with some of the most popular payment methods available currently.

This just goes to show how Satoshi's invention was way ahead of its time. BTC has the power to shake the centralized payment system to its core.

If the TX times and fees drop with future updates, BTC could be perceived as a payment method primarily and asset secondarily in the future in my opinion.

[Karartma1]

Great share fillippone, always hunting the best news for us.
I am not surprised by any of these words, as I believed in the power of bitcoin as a protocol, as an invention, as a network (you name it) since day 1. I can't say much more, I can only agree with that.
What I can add is that there's a slow movement that is slowly draining wealth from old investement asset classes (stocks, gold, real estate....) into the new one which is bitcoin. Slowly and inesorably we shall see a growing market cap (and hopefully a constant and healthy price increase). The avalanche has started and nobody can stop it now. It's too late.

[20kevin20]

So the rich are finally starting to get it! Or did they get it a while ago but kept their lips sealed?

I doubt someone who's been around the crypto area in 2013/2017 as an investor did not take a few days off their time to find out what Bitcoin is all about!

Now that Bitcoin is truly going mainstream, 2021-2030 looks like it's going to be a legendary decade for all BTC investors. And that's because if the rich don't get into BTC, they'll lose the train and wealth will be distributed among the non-rich! And since BTC can't be beaten by corporations and centralization, you know what they say.. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!

[Ucy]

Interesting.
Let the investor not forget the important things that make Bitcoin valuable and attractive to people who understand it. It can't be considered real Bitcoin anymore if it stops being Well Decentralized (Satoshi seems to think it's "Completely Decentralized" ), Very Transparent , Immutable, Censorship Resistant, Permissionless/Trustless, Privacy-friendly/Anonymity-friendly, Secure, Deflationary, Consensus-based, etc,
I think the wealth it produces should come mainly from these important ideals so that they're encouraged more than the "contrary ideals"(fiat-like ideals such as centralization, poor transparency, darkness, privacy violations, inflation, censorship etc..)

[Kittygalore]

So the rich are finally starting to get it! Or did they get it a while ago but kept their lips sealed?

I doubt someone who's been around the crypto area in 2013/2017 as an investor did not take a few days off their time to find out what Bitcoin is all about!

Now that Bitcoin is truly going mainstream, 2021-2030 looks like it's going to be a legendary decade for all BTC investors. And that's because if the rich don't get into BTC, they'll lose the train and wealth will be distributed among the non-rich! And since BTC can't be beaten by corporations and centralization, you know what they say.. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!

To me, this sounded like they want to be on the winning side, with the recent fiasco of r/wallstreetbets, they want to find another hedge to lean to because the people has finally discovered the system of buying short on losing companies, their scam will not work the second time. I think that it is in our win that the rich people will not get into cryptocurrency, they still have that real estate bubble and they still hold big positions in companies, making them richer than ever is not a good idea, hopefully they would be stubborn enough to be left behind by the hype train to the point that the prices wouldn't go any lower, sort of like leveling the playing field.

[fillippone]

I'm not sure that Wall Street really hates Bitcoin that much...  Once the bankers have identified a good way to make money, they move into it.  It will likely take some time, but if BTC keeps going up due to buying pressure by consumers, companies buying BTC for their treasuries and/or their competition buying  it, then we may see real fireworks.

There will be resistance by the cohorts on Wall Street that have something to lose as well as their pals at the SEC and other regulators.

Dalio, IMO, is smart to be looking at BTC.  He is a very smart guy who can see trends developing.  But, he is a core member of the Financial Elite and a Swamp Creature, worth keeping that in mind.

I can’t see anything wrong with Wall Street buying bitcoin.
Is it something Satoshi would have liked? Not sure
Is it something that Bitcoin needs? NO
Is it something can help bitcoin? Definetly

So this is why I am positive about old, legacy, financial players looking into bitcoin.

[AicecreaME]

This kind of message by a famous person is a good encouragement to everyone who still doubt Bitcoin's capability to change the whole world's economy and everyone's life if they are willing to accept Bitcoin and start to do their stuff to earn Bitcoin. Maybe it will still take couple of years before the majority of the society starts to use Bitcoin and earn Bitcoin.

For sure when that time happens, they are drooling while looking to those early adopters of Bitcoin celebrating with their profits.

[disconnectme]

For him to make a positive post like this about Bitcoin after all he has said about it in the past, I believe he has been accumulating some before now. This hedge fund guys are not dump, they don't turn to millionaires because they are lucky and they won't buy at the top. Very bullish for Bitcoin this year and my $200k target just seems to be more conservative now

[magneto]

Dalio is an interesting figure indeed. He doesn't seem to be fixated on the narrative of America being the dominant market economy for decades to come. Rather, he admits readily the downfalls of fiat, the imminent changing of the world order, and the eventual shift away from the USD as reserve currency.

This sort of realism is healthy in investing. You simply cannot make rational judgements on financial markets if you are totally deluded.

But yes, certainly refreshing to see this and he is completely right. BTC should be seen as a long term store of value and a hedge against an imminent fiat collapse - it makes no sense to compare it to tulips, the dotcom bubble, or more recently WSB pumps.

[coolcoinz]

Don’t call it an invention, it’s the future! And when we first use it we already know it’s the future, just like once we discover internet during its infancy.

It doesn't contradict one another. Some inventions become the future and some are forgotten. Bitcoin just might be among those that prevail, but don't forget that it will require a lot of upgrades along the way to stay on top. It's like a mobile phone. The technology is still with us after more than 30 years, but if you compare the first phones with what we're using today you won't find many similarities.

[Lucius]

Another big fish changed his mind, but only when he saw some companies investing in Bitcoin - which would mean that at one point the whole perception around it changed. From the statement, "There's two purposes of money, a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth, and bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now" (Davos 2020) to the "I might be missing something about bitcoin.", to the point that he still understands some things now, so the idea of Bitcoin doesn’t look so bad to him.

What is easy to notice is that he (as well as JPM) compares in his commentary with the possible outflow of money from private gold savings in BTC, although it does not go beyond 50% of that capital - which gives us a price of $85 000 per BTC.

To me, though, that golden theory makes sense - but it's not something to focus on exclusively, because what about the stock market or all that money that just stands by and waits for some good investment opportunity?

[Broly46]

Don’t call it an invention, it’s the future! And when we first use it we already know it’s the future, just like once we discover internet during its infancy.

It doesn't contradict one another. Some inventions become the future and some are forgotten. Bitcoin just might be among those that prevail, but don't forget that it will require a lot of upgrades along the way to stay on top. It's like a mobile phone. The technology is still with us after more than 30 years, but if you compare the first phones with what we're using today you won't find many similarities.

Yeah, what’s your mention is true, many inventions are simply not enough to have impact on the future, but bitcoin is different, it’s the chosen one, it attract many people into it, and the people who are early, are the social outcasts, nerds, rejects, gamers, yet it’s the most genuine attitudes that we create future, and bitcoin does attract them to work together, don’t get me wrong, bitcoin is still associate with all the negativity perception among society views of point, whenever I tell somebody bitcoin they think I’m doing illegal money laundering.

[Darker45]

Ray Dalio is one of probably only a few Wall Street guys who are seeing objectively and speaks accordingly. I don't know but this old guy seems lovable to me. Perhaps it's just me emotionally reacting to one of this respectable legend's books which was written in such a minimal and colorful way that it could be a perfect bed time story for a little kid a few years of age.

What I particularly like about Dalio's What I Think of Bitcoin is that it is written from the perspective of a crypto layman, which is what I basically am. It seems it needs no expounding anymore. Every ordinary mortal could spare a few minutes reading it and be enlightened and probably convinced by the old man's words.

And worth-noting as well is the fact that Dalio is not a close-minded Bitcoin fan when he noted that When I use "Bitcoin" please take that to mean Bitcoin and its analogous competitors.

[masterzino]

I read his Linkedin post a couple of days ago.

Ray Dalio is speaking objectively and without unnecessary hate, but still, he's very cautious about what he's publishing openly. Anyway, Bitcoin is the FUTURE!