Price correction btc 6-12 months

[BrewMaster]

the possibility of bitcoin being under 20k and over 50k are equally the same

i like your comment but this part is not true. the possibility of these two prices happening in the next 2 hours are the same simply because the orderbooks are small and we can see a gigantic unexpected  volatility that could take the price to those numbers.
otherwise if we go any longer than that and in any normal situation $20k is impossible because it would be extremely below the real value of bitcoin while $50 is closer to the current value and it has a better chance of happening.

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[Oilacris]

the possibility of bitcoin being under 20k and over 50k are equally the same

i like your comment but this part is not true. the possibility of these two prices happening in the next 2 hours are the same simply because the orderbooks are small and we can see a gigantic unexpected  volatility that could take the price to those numbers.
otherwise if we go any longer than that and in any normal situation $20k is impossible because it would be extremely below the real value of bitcoin while $50 is closer to the current value and it has a better chance of happening.

Several factors should really be on check list first before considering on making out some presumption or whats the realistic approach neither we would go up or down.

If you do see those signs then you can have at least some idea on where the price might be going not just on presumpting that it would have the same chance of reaching neither 20k or 50k

without checking out the technicals but of course there would always be the possibility but we cant really just deny the things which are really needed for us to analyze
and not just blindly make out presumptions.

[Oasisman]

the possibility of bitcoin being under 20k and over 50k are equally the same

~snip~.

If you do see those signs then you can have at least some idea on where the price might be going not just on presumpting that it would have the same chance of reaching neither 20k or 50k
without checking out the technicals but of course there would always be the possibility but we cant really just deny the things which are really needed for us to analyze
and not just blindly make out presumptions.

Technical analysis makes a slight difference than solely relying on fundamentals and presumption based on current price movements. Though TA's focuses on past records and current movements of asset, but the chances for that specific analysis to happen is still 50/50 just like those who are just guessing the next price movements.
So, I have to agree the above comment, because no one would ever be certain on what would be the next Btc price.
We were once on the verge of lossing the $30,000 level, but It bounces back to almost $40,000 at this very moment. A lot of speculations say Btc is on its way on having the early correction.

[blockman]

I doubt we could use history from now on.
A lot of changes had happened.
Before there was no Paypal to buy bitcoin that easily.
Also, there are popular names that are joining the crypto industry. So demands could get higher anytime and the volatility will stay.
IMO, the correction already happened and we have a new bottom. I hope.

I hope that was the real bottom that we can get for this year although we're just on the 2nd month of the year. It is true that many changes have happened in the past and it's no longer the same as the old market of bitcoin that we have been with. FUD remains the same but they're mostly ignored anyway but the biggest players are the ones playing the market and manipulating it. And in PayPal, they've used bitcoin and said to be adopted it but each bitcoin bought on them, they're not real bitcoin because users can't withdraw it based on the opinion of what the other people have experienced.

[tygeade]

Technical analysis makes a slight difference than solely relying on fundamentals and presumption based on current price movements. Though TA's focuses on past records and current movements of asset, but the chances for that specific analysis to happen is still 50/50 just like those who are just guessing the next price movements.
So, I have to agree the above comment, because no one would ever be certain on what would be the next Btc price.
We were once on the verge of lossing the $30,000 level, but It bounces back to almost $40,000 at this very moment. A lot of speculations say Btc is on its way on having the early correction.

I simply mean in the loosest term possible that "bitcoin can do anything it wants" because let's face it, in the technical sense it could be 1 dollars or 1 million dollars as well, that is even wider range than 20k to 50k range, however that is "technically possible" that we do not believe in, everybody knows bitcoin is not going to 1 dollar, and it will not be 1 million dollars anytime soon neither.

Long story short I mean that 20k is (or was at the time) only 50% or so drop away, and that is totally fine, it could definitely happen, however looking at 50k at today's price you may think that is easier, but at the time it was nearly identical. When the price was 35k, it required 15k drop to be 20k and 15k increase to be 50k, and looking at everything we have I felt like it was equal chances to hit those two numbers. Now looking at it, I could say 50k is a bit more possible.

[poodle63]

There's no guarantee that bitcoin or the whole crypto market gonna do the same as the cycle you pictured. Things different right now, institutional investors, adoption by large corporation, some government opens up to bitcoin and a lot more.
The crypto market is utterly unpredictable and no one know for sure, relying on past chart is just a no go for me because it could all go differently. Like how many of us never predicted for bitcoin to go up this far just within months.
You should just realize that the market could move at any direction regardless of your analyzation and prepare for that instead.

[DoublerHunter]

^ Are people still did not happy with the recent ATH that achieve the market price?  Like what happened to BTC, it almost doubled compared to the last previous ATH in 2017. Probably everyone now happy if someone invested back then year 2018. However, that is not arguable where BTC was heading up, because we know that it is unpredictable. But look around, there are big investors who adopted BTC, and even big private institutions are now investing in BTC and using this, do you think we are on the hype? BTC will pump up and grow more these days because of these investors.

[ethereumhunter]

^ Are people still did not happy with the recent ATH that achieve the market price?  Like what happened to BTC, it almost doubled compared to the last previous ATH in 2017. Probably everyone now happy if someone invested back then year 2018. However, that is not arguable where BTC was heading up, because we know that it is unpredictable. But look around, there are big investors who adopted BTC, and even big private institutions are now investing in BTC and using this, do you think we are on the hype? BTC will pump up and grow more these days because of these investors.

I am happy with the recent ATH that bitcoin achieve so far, but we want to see the next ATH from bitcoin. I am sure that the next ATH will achieve sooner or later, and with what is happening with bitcoin today, the price gives good moves (again) as the price now can back to $38k, which I am waiting for a while. So I think we will see the price touch $40k again, and after that, I think the price can rise more. I agree that bitcoin will pump and grow more, especially if many investors come to the bitcoin world.

[slaman29]

There's no guarantee that bitcoin or the whole crypto market gonna do the same as the cycle you pictured. Things different right now, institutional investors, adoption by large corporation, some government opens up to bitcoin and a lot more.
The crypto market is utterly unpredictable and no one know for sure, relying on past chart is just a no go for me because it could all go differently. Like how many of us never predicted for bitcoin to go up this far just within months.
You should just realize that the market could move at any direction regardless of your analyzation and prepare for that instead.

There is no guarantee of anything indeed,,, and the funny thing about people who talk a lot about cycles is they are the ones in general who get afraid when unexpected dips or crashes happen. They talk about being smart and selling near the top, but they always fall for it and get weak hands when people start dumping.

Easier analyzing than actually acting!

[MyCryptoDomains]

the last days have been good for BTC. feels like 40K is more likely than bigger correction. but that's just feels

[FanEagle]

There's no guarantee that bitcoin or the whole crypto market gonna do the same as the cycle you pictured. Things different right now, institutional investors, adoption by large corporation, some government opens up to bitcoin and a lot more.
The crypto market is utterly unpredictable and no one know for sure, relying on past chart is just a no go for me because it could all go differently. Like how many of us never predicted for bitcoin to go up this far just within months.
You should just realize that the market could move at any direction regardless of your analyzation and prepare for that instead.

That is the difference between what we have right now and what we had in 2018 and that is a big difference that people should realize already. In 2018 we didn't had people buying thousands of bitcoins constantly without a stop, right now we have those huge corporations buying thousands of bitcoins every week amongt themselves, maybe one week company A buys, the other week company B buys but every week there are corporations buying thousands of it.

It means that price rarely ever drops, people could end up selling and getting out and sometimes numbers are higher than usual, but still whenever it goes back to "regular days" it goes up because now our normal days are bull days and that is very important, in order for bitcoin to keep still without going up or down we need a lot more people selling than we used to and that is very important.

[Lorokan]

This is wrong; i say it is wrong because in the crypto currency market there is no time range or duration for price correction; just as the price surge happened without following time frames; the price corrections will do the same. this is why you must always do your own research because even the trade charts analysis fails; trade safe

[KTChampions]

There is no guarantee of anything indeed,,, and the funny thing about people who talk a lot about cycles is they are the ones in general who get afraid when unexpected dips or crashes happen. They talk about being smart and selling near the top, but they always fall for it and get weak hands when people start dumping.

Easier analyzing than actually acting!

Really! I am amused by these analyzes like "buy at the bottom, sell at the top", as if someone knows in advance where these levels are. Almost everyone knows how to act, but in conditions of real trading/investing and real risks, people act quite differently.

[STT]

the possibility of bitcoin being under 20k and over 50k are equally the same

The odds can be wrong, Im usually leaning towards being bearish price prediction for anything medium term or 1 year (weak hands sell I always expect it) ; even I'd say 20k is less likely then 50k at this moment.     50 day average would be the downside target about now, I said that prior to it being hit recently but I still think its reasonable now as a rough boundary to negative sentiment till expectations especially change.    Bigger changes and this year long long correction idea rest on Dollar and looking at Dollar index we lack strength therefore we are not weak in BTC in expectation.   If Dollar liquidity drys up then we enter a harsher landscape and all these negatives may easily come true, its winter but its not snowing we are pretty lucky in the ongoing outlook so far.   Just normal profit taking and price cycling from what Ive seen and I still dont know or expect us to break up or down especially.

[freedomno1]

The contrarian in me is thinking it will break out soon and this is solidification powered by Elon musk and WSB getting people into Doge and Bitcoin, however looking at the pattern of this month and thinking it may just push the higher bound of the trading range and get pushed back downwards like what happened with Gamestop and other pumped stocks and crash down to a reasonable level as it has the last few times before the real breakout.

Conflicted personally I'm not sure if there is enough built up momentum to break a new ATH relative to the rise from December.
It was only a month ago since the last ATH on January 9th and three months since we broke out from the 2017 ATH range into this one.

[Silberman]

I stopped reading after "The main reason is again (like 2017)." Seriously, don't compare as if 2017 is 2021. This is years apart and there are a lot of changes that happened in between.

I'm going to ask you instead, was there PayPal in 2017? Was there Square in 2018? Was there Microstrategy, was there SkyBridge, etc all those years? These are just some factors which make me believe that 2021 is going to be a lot more explosive than all the previous years combined. Who knows, we might even hit 6 digits within the year?

Do not bother, most of the persons that make comparisons like that see bitcoin and many other things as just a spreadsheet in which they make comparisons despite the fundamental differences of the market, as you state even if we are technically comparing the market of cryptocurrencies against each other everything has change during the last 4 years, it is like comparing the stock market of today to the stock market one century ago, it simply does not make sense but comparisons will still be made.