Price correction btc 6-12 months

[Mrjones1984]

I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time. This may be partly due to the fact that many people have to place their cash elsewhere, than in the bank, due to the very low interest rates on deposits. My thought is the world economies have in recent years been able to keep borrowing money from each other due to there is growth in the world. When something is created, money can also be borrowed from it. The Big problem is waiting when the economies go into recession and there is no growth but the economies still have the same "consumption". We are facing this issue right now with COVID-19. The resultat is that it’s no longer possible to borrowed in the growth. The economies will at some point have to adapt with greater saving programs and here many ordinary people will lose their jobs and therefore need e.g. their deposits in bitcoin. It is great that larger companies have started investing in bitcoin, but when these also meet the challenges of the future from the economies, a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

[dunfida]

a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

When it comes to correction then this had been a common question on when it would happen but to point out a certain day or month then it is something that we should expect on.
Thinking off that this pandemic did really make out some big effect into the market not only limited to crypto but also in other traditional markets as well or shall we say the entire
economy.Cash flows in different mediums not solely or purely focusing on crypto alone.We shouldnt really correlate from time to time about those fundamentals to be that
main reason on why we do reach out this high.Correction is inevitable no matter what reason is behind it.

[error08]

~a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

the major correction had occured in January and may not pull it any further below $27k, in a worst-case possibly to drop to $20k if something unexpected occurs but unlikely to hit $8k even in the next 6-12 months. Bitcoin predicted to grow over $100k this year and surely will get corrected after it reaches the ath, assume the peak is $100k and the biggest crash is 80%-90%, then it will be $20k or $10k as the lowest price in 2023 as the price decline gradually in a long bear market. However, we expect a tremendous increase this year to reach a milestone of 6 digits, not the other way around.

[Dutchyyy]

It is possible to see a price correction because the Bitcoin price jumped too quickly in the past 60 days. The global crypto market has a much better foundation than 2018, so even if there is a price correction, the long-term perspectives are excellent.

[STT]

Price consolidation is how I'd rather put it, we can see positive moves once again within this but a better perspective overall would be trading within range.   Where as most people I see or many at least have been swept up in bullish action and expectation towards breaking even six figures and I dont blame them because its not profitable to be negative or doubting but at some point on the horizon is storm clouds or at least some rain to slow us down in progress.
  We're going to be a bit slower, its not really negative its just revision and some repeat.   However disappointment will lead some to sell which is where we cycle through the negative price action also, all quite normal and doesnt knock my long term view.   Of course I thought 2020 would be in consolidation then events happened and I was all wrong but it was playing out that way to begin with.

[exstasie]

I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time.

The comparison to 2017 implies the bull run is over already. Why do you think so? There is some fractal resemblance to the 2018 bubble pop, but my experience tells me not to read into it too much.

Peter Brandt pointed out the same fractal similarity, but like me, he doesn't think it's predictive of a crash like 2017. He still expects parabolic upside from here: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1356037338057601025

[philipma1957]

I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time. This may be partly due to the fact that many people have to place their cash elsewhere, than in the bank, due to the very low interest rates on deposits. My thought is the world economies have in recent years been able to keep borrowing money from each other due to there is growth in the world. When something is created, money can also be borrowed from it. The Big problem is waiting when the economies go into recession and there is no growth but the economies still have the same "consumption". We are facing this issue right now with COVID-19. The resultat is that it’s no longer possible to borrowed in the growth. The economies will at some point have to adapt with greater saving programs and here many ordinary people will lose their jobs and therefore need e.g. their deposits in bitcoin. It is great that larger companies have started investing in bitcoin, but when these also meet the challenges of the future from the economies, a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

Good luck.

The correction will be a rise to 80,000-100,000 in 6-12 months

not a drop to 8,000-10,000 in 6-12 months.

You should short BTC on 10x margin if you believe what you say.

I am stacking my sats as fast as I can. I will sell at 77,777 sometime in dec.

[Silberman]

I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time. This may be partly due to the fact that many people have to place their cash elsewhere, than in the bank, due to the very low interest rates on deposits. My thought is the world economies have in recent years been able to keep borrowing money from each other due to there is growth in the world. When something is created, money can also be borrowed from it. The Big problem is waiting when the economies go into recession and there is no growth but the economies still have the same "consumption". We are facing this issue right now with COVID-19. The resultat is that it’s no longer possible to borrowed in the growth. The economies will at some point have to adapt with greater saving programs and here many ordinary people will lose their jobs and therefore need e.g. their deposits in bitcoin. It is great that larger companies have started investing in bitcoin, but when these also meet the challenges of the future from the economies, a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

I just do not see it, if you take a careful look at the previous history of how the price of bitcoin moves I really think we have left behind that price for bitcoin for good, the minimum I think we will see bitcoin during the next months is 20k and that is assuming the bull run is over which I do not see, this is a period of accumulation and then after a few months the price will begin to go up once again, and at that point a price of 100k for each bitcoin will be very possible.

[kotajikikox]

It is possible to see a price correction because the Bitcoin price jumped too quickly in the past 60 days. The global crypto market has a much better foundation than 2018, so even if there is a price correction, the long-term perspectives are excellent.

But at least not 6-12 months long? that is exaggeration to have that long range of correcting because it will take place for a month or 2 because of some other currencies that goes with the value of Pumping to the number 1 currency .

though OP is comparing still in the pattern of 2017-2018 in which too different in this year/Halving.

we are in more confident market and more competent investor that wanted to stay investing and not manipulating this market so more or less we will remain in this status while Whales from the manipulator side are trying to push their intentions .

[aysg76]

My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?

No, we are not going under $20k in any case. I guess we will go atmost $25k then we will bounce back stronger.

[Wexnident]

I don't think a similar crash such as the one in 2017 would happen for this cycle. Yes, a set back may be inevitable, but I doubt it would go below $20k. Tbh, the market back then was due to FOMO, way too many people got sucked in and the like, I hardly doubt the same exact scenarios would happen this year. Yes, some people may have been sucked in by FOMO again, but most should know better than be affected, and so far, even though the price doubled from what it initially was, it has seen a pretty stable movement for the past few weeks.

Rather than a price correction, a consolidation would probably be the better term, and at the minimum, it would stand at about above $20k on any range at the worst case scenario, and in the best case, well, the market will keep going on with the bull run and reach greater heights.

[kentrolla]

The correction has already started and we are already experiencing it after it's ATH again it went down to 29k isn't this a correction? Obviously the price will go down in someday because the price was in it's extreme peak and surely the drop will happen and that's how the market is built as a proverb I've already said "Everyrise has a fall" so think and invest according to the market. Also follow the trend because this will surely help to have knowledge in crypto market.

[sunsilk]

If the 2017-2018 bulls and bears are your basis then, you're probably haven't looked at its correlation about the halving before those years and the halving that we've got just last year.

But taking into account that we're comparing it with those years, January 2021 is like January 2017. And if you have understood by that means, your expectation could change but it's all on you and we'll see until this year ends but I'm bullish.

Peter Brandt pointed out the same fractal similarity, but like me, he doesn't think it's predictive of a crash like 2017. He still expects parabolic upside from here: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1356037338057601025

Just want to point out that I like this guy and been following him when he had forecasted a good prediction last year around June about bitcoin.

[ourkid]

Well I found this about general market dynamics and the cycle... What's interesting is if we overlay against BTC price 2018, and then again on current situation...
https://imgur.com/a/6gQMQ6K

2018 situation - whilst we didn't "capitulate" completely to failure, we did return to the mean line (black line) over the proceeding 4-6 months.
In a generally bullish market like BTC perhaps this makes sense... We didn't completely fail, but the cycle still determined the price over medium term.

In 2021, we can see a similar second uptick - of course only time will tell where it goes from here, but you wouldn't be crazy to perhaps expect to see a similar pattern transpiring.
With the argument about whales and institutional investors - well we're at the mercy of when they take profits and dump on market, but also they're not stupid to not see that a fall in price on a cyclical market dynamic would mean the opportunity to buy again at lower prices and accumulate more profit.

Based on the return to mean line, seeing $10k isn't crazy...

2018 Movements
https://imgur.com/1LgKF5l

2021 Movements
https://imgur.com/b6cwzz1

[GreatArkansas]

This time is already different compare on the previous years of Bitcoin, especially last year 2017.
I don't think so this COVID drama will affect the price of crypto market. It is already proven last year, people already learnt the lesson.
Look at the hype of Bitcoin these days, retail investors and institutions are starting to buy Bitcoin. Look what happened when Bitcoin dropped below 30k past few days, it is bouncing once it is dropping.
6-12 months may be sideways for Bitcoin, but dropping below $20,000 is kinda impossible.

[ourkid]

This time is already different compare on the previous years of Bitcoin, especially last year 2017.
I don't think so this COVID drama will affect the price of crypto market. It is already proven last year, people already learnt the lesson.
Look at the hype of Bitcoin these days, retail investors and institutions are starting to buy Bitcoin. Look what happened when Bitcoin dropped below 30k past few days, it is bouncing once it is dropping.
6-12 months may be sideways for Bitcoin, but dropping below $20,000 is kinda impossible.

In fairness it did the same bounce effect for 4-5 months after the ATH of 2017/18 @ $19k but eventually dropped back to $3.4k - 80% drop over 4-5 months. But there was a similar sideways bounce against supports.

I'm guessing this is due to the fact market will not drop 80% overnight, and even within those time periods of a general drop, there will still be buying volume and a shift in buyers/sellers to move the price both Up and Down.

I don't know. I just think after this hype dies down a little bit and the world goes back to normality things will cool off a bit. Even institutions will make their moves and then sit and wait and view performance, than simply plough more money right back in... They surely have a board and shareholders to answer to, with whom they will need to make investment decisions with... no?

I think the point about retail investors who have put money into BTC may look at it in a few months (here especially a lot of people have lost their jobs due to pandemic), so may look to call on these funds.

[pooya87]

Throw away accounts like the starter of this topic have been saying the same thing every time there is an accumulation going on and the price is about to jump up again. Basically every year.
They said it back in 2016 when price reached $600 and they wanted to see $150 again.
They said it again back in 2017 when price reached $3000 and they wanted to see $900 again.
They said it again in 2019 when price went above $6000 and they wanted $1000 again
They said it again in 2019 when price went past $10,000 and they wanted to see $6000 again.
...
They are saying it today that price is past $30,000 and they wish for $10,000 again.

Soon they will repeat it when price reaches $90,000 and they wish to see $30,000 again.

The old topics in this board are priceless after a couple of years. Some FUD examples:
China bans bitcoin again in Sep 2017: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6000
Dump predictions like OP back in Aug 2017 with a golden post from the biggest FUD idiot called kwukduck: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6080
Dump talk in Jul 2017 and doomsday scenarios because of bcash existence: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6320

I'm going to quote my answer from ~4 years ago to answer OP but change the numbers in the comment to match the case for today:

If we look in Bitcoin price this year, then we can see that currently it is quite high, almost 1700 USD now - http://preev.com/, so it will go to 1800 - 1900 USD this summer and then go down later this year.

you are late to the party my friend. price is already down and it will possibly continue this way for some more time because a fast rise needs a correction currently at $34,000 with a $28,800 low.

and then after this correction period ended it will rise up to $40,000+ possibly even break $50,000 and depending on how fast it goes up we may even see some more of the same thing.

[Jating]

I really don't understand why we have several threads comparing the 2017/2018 bullish/bearish market to today's 2020/2021. Are there really similarities or some coincidence? And then we have other side of the spectrum, telling us that this is just the start of the bull run so normally so might see some dips along the way before we can go to $50k or even more at the end of the year.

I guess everyone can make their wild, free and educated guess here.

We also failed to see that bitcoin's narrative has change a bit since the bull run in 2017 and the eventual bearish trend after that. So I don't think we can compare the two.

[exstasie]

I really don't understand why we have several threads comparing the 2017/2018 bullish/bearish market to today's 2020/2021. Are there really similarities or some coincidence?

People just get fearful after a deep correction. The downtrend has been such a stark contrast to the exuberance of December and early January, so people are questioning the strength of the larger bull trend and are wondering if the top is in.

The same thing happened all through 2017. Many people thought the top was in after the market dumped off $3K and again off $5K. As it turned out, those were just mid-term corrections and price went parabolic again afterwards. The same will happen again this time, I believe.

[Fundamentals Of]

I stopped reading after "The main reason is again (like 2017)." Seriously, don't compare as if 2017 is 2021. This is years apart and there are a lot of changes that happened in between.

I'm going to ask you instead, was there PayPal in 2017? Was there Square in 2018? Was there Microstrategy, was there SkyBridge, etc all those years? These are just some factors which make me believe that 2021 is going to be a lot more explosive than all the previous years combined. Who knows, we might even hit 6 digits within the year?