Bitcoin's 100k bubble may not burst ???

[Husires]

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people  compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.

We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

If this sudden price rise is due to all of the big, institutional buyers we've been hearing about, bitcoin might not actually be in a bubble.  This might actually be sustainable, but I think it depends on the activity of the short-term traders and/or those who decide to cash out and take their profits.

Bitcoin's at $46.7k as I write this, and it's mind-blowing in the extreme.  It isn't as though it's hit $50k yet, but I didn't think btc would get anywhere near that level this year.  I'm proven wrong once again.

[Mahanton]

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

If this sudden price rise is due to all of the big, institutional buyers we've been hearing about, bitcoin might not actually be in a bubble.  This might actually be sustainable, but I think it depends on the activity of the short-term traders and/or those who decide to cash out and take their profits.

Bitcoin's at $46.7k as I write this, and it's mind-blowing in the extreme.  It isn't as though it's hit $50k yet, but I didn't think btc would get anywhere near that level this year.  I'm proven wrong once again.

Considering on the current price then no one did really anticipate this.It is way too much for us to believe that it did really rise up on a short span of time.
I cant blame out people on not to think that this is a bubble but if we do back up with those significant adoption events then we can tell that there is really
something behind on these pumps compared into those previous years where price increase do came from nowhere, without news or fundamentals
that would really support its price or value but now we are really looking on different scenario.

[DrBeer]

Interesting comparison. But most likely a little incorrect.
1. At the moment, as in those days, the crypto market was, and still remains, speculative.
2. In 2012, cryptocurrency really was nothing more than a technological experiment. Its price was formed mostly by fantasies, and primary speculators
3. In 2017, although the market was speculative, it was already formed, managed and understandable. This was the next stage in the development of the crypto market
4. Now is the time when cryptocurrencies are a reality with which we have to agree, technology begins to penetrate into real life, technology is talked about at the state level on a global scale. 100k per bitcoin is only ~ 2x from today, and 1.5x to the capitalization of the entire crypto market. Corporations and large investors began to invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Perhaps these factors will not allow a big dump to occur, it is possible that this cost (+ / -) will be fixed, and will become some foundation for further global growth of the crypto market

[Argoo]

Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and therefore differs from what it was in 2017-2018. Large business structures have entered the market, and even some government agencies are showing interest in bitcoin. They invest in cryptocurrency more deliberately and will be subject to less panic, so there should not be such a sharp and deep fall in cryptocurrency, as it was in mid-2018. It is likely that now we can expect a further rise in prices in the cryptocurrency market, and this growth may still continue for a long time.

[passwordnow]

I've heard some speculation says that the bull run may stop after getting to the peak, $100k is one of it but that could also be surpassed by another ATH which is likely to be said up to $300k.

Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and therefore differs from what it was in 2017-2018. Large business structures have entered the market, and even some government agencies are showing interest in bitcoin. They invest in cryptocurrency more deliberately and will be subject to less panic, so there should not be such a sharp and deep fall in cryptocurrency, as it was in mid-2018. It is likely that now we can expect a further rise in prices in the cryptocurrency market, and this growth may still continue for a long time.

Less panic and more trust from the people and this is what makes it more stable this time. Unlike the past bull runs that's made by FOMO and then was followed by a sudden panic that made it put into the bear market.

[Quidat]

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people  compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.
We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months?

We can always look in t he past and could really make out some comparison and even some people who are really fan of connecting the dots when they do make out some future predictions.
There's always a presumption when it comes to that.For example on the month of March on where most likely Bitcoin is really on bearish status but what happened?It does on the opposite situation.
If we do reach up $100k then i dont really much to believe that bubble will burst but somehow i do believe on some serious correction specially to those who had bought on 40-60k price point.
Lets not really remove the possibilities of things because we have seen the scenarios that could really happen.

[Gozie51]

I don't know if you are looking $100,000 by this December . I think I'm not despite institutional investors rushing in and hodling. The small hodlers won't allow that because of anxiety to cash out and this is a reason. Bitcoin at the moment has been finding it difficult to over come the $60,000 stage and that for me could be a sigh of a major retracement that we can't predict how it will go but definitely not as going down much because more investors are waiting to get in.

[arufox]

Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and therefore differs from what it was in 2017-2018. Large business structures have entered the market, and even some government agencies are showing interest in bitcoin. They invest in cryptocurrency more deliberately and will be subject to less panic, so there should not be such a sharp and deep fall in cryptocurrency, as it was in mid-2018. It is likely that now we can expect a further rise in prices in the cryptocurrency market, and this growth may still continue for a long time.

I'm not sure about that, the chart will be repeated this is the point that i believe, Try to imagine if Bitcoin price pump massive do you think how many people will interested to sell their Bitcoin, maybe most people will do it. Do you think intitutions will not do the same?? My opinion Be careful this year, institutions have large bag, if they sell it you will see huge correction

[Baofeng]

Eventually, the bubble will burst though, just a question of when and what will be the top price. We have this kind of 4 year cycle, but since bitcoin's narrative has change because of institutions, we might see one super cycle, or maybe 2. But it's imminent, it will burst at some point, it might take longer though this time. Maybe $100k or even higher will be the top, so let's see how it goes.

[thecodebear]

I think Bitcoin having a bubble depends on how fast it goes up. No rapid rise to a blow-off top, no bubble. With the retail market much less FOMO-y than previous cycles, and institutions only gradually coming in and in small (for them) amounts they also don't FOMO in. No mass FOMO means no blow-off top, means no bubble. I think there's a good chance that no great big bubble will form, but instead we'll just see a gradual expansion of the market with plenty of corrections due to the lack of significant FOMO. Like look at NFTs right now - that's where there is crazy FOMO, but the larger crypto market and bitcoin specifically there's nothing like that right now.

I'd only expect a big bubble burst if Bitcoin shoots way up quickly, like if it hits $100k this summer and then a month or two later it's close to $200k, then I'd expect a crash back under $100k is likely. But I don't think we'll see things play out like that.

[TravelMug]

I'd only expect a big bubble burst if Bitcoin shoots way up quickly, like if it hits $100k this summer and then a month or two later it's close to $200k, then I'd expect a crash back under $100k is likely. But I don't think we'll see things play out like that.

Right, as we can see the growth has been slowing down in the last 3 months and could take like the last quarter of this year to reach $100k or something in that ball park.

The burst of 2017 was rather fast, if we are going to compare them, the burst could had happen late 2020, but it didn't meaning we have a lot of room this year.

But the growth is slowing as we haven't seen a super fast rally. Although this year will be critical, if all other predictors like $200k will be reach then obviously, we are in bubble and what follows will be big crash.

[wheelz1200]

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people  compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.

We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months?

I won't provide any technical analysis but every cycle won't be the same.  If it would be the same then everyone should sell right now because the correction should take it well under where it lies today. Peoe confuse one or two cycles with "this is what happens every 3-4 years".  There are different circumstances from 2013 to 2021.

[adaseb]

You need to realise that you can't compare cycles this way. Just because BTC went 20x in 2017 doesn't mean it will go 20x this time around. Even if it does go 20x, do you expect it to go another 20x from $400K all the way up to $8,000,000 BTC? Obviously the cycle needs to stop somewhere.

Right now prices are very high and at times the algo bots are having problems keeping liquidity of some of the smaller currencies such as BTCEUR. Look what happened when it broke 50K euro, there was massive sell walls and not enough euro for the bots to arbitrage the trade and there was a huge arbitrage for a few hours.

Prices are always starting to get toppy now. If we are at $250,000 BTC, imagine how difficult it will get then when someone wants to dump 25BTC all of a sudden? Who will absorb all that liquidity?

[Wind_FURY]

OP, the expected time of “bursting of the bubble” will happen LATER because of the BRRR money-printing by the Fed and all the stimulus packages of different countries to revive their economies. There is also the threat of inflation/hyperinfilation, which some smart billionaires have started to HODL Bitcoin is a back up/fall back/hedge in case the government loses control of the monetary system.

[dothebeats]

I don't think the burst is gonna happen sooner, not with the amount of money being printed right now which promotes inflation and the 1% acknowledging bitcoin and actively investing on it. Plus at this stage, only the richy rich can buy tons of bitcoins at this price point and there's no one to dump this huge money to, because not everyone is comfortable in buying at this price range since it's already near the top of this cycle. Perhaps you can say it's a stalemate in the market right now since a few wants to buy and those who hold too much cannot simply dump it at the market since the demand isn't that good either.

[pooya87]

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

And just imagine reaching $150k and then we see a dump of 50% at $75k, it is a failure or not base on that price? So there's a lot of factors to be involved here, just because we reach $100k and assuming that it will be mostly the top (which I doubt in the first place), we are going to see a massive drop. Institutions and billionaires are here, maybe retail will be the only one dumping if we hit $100k or more. But this big players are still going to hedge their wealth on bitcoin and I doubt that they will also sold it at the top.

[4Y078]

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

And when bitcoin reach $100k most of the altcoins will follow just like the 2017 i can't say that btc will rise up to 13,233% or beyond but this is likely to happen in a long run

[Wind_FURY]

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

The “bubble narrative” was invented by nocoiner-trolls to scare the people away, and discourage them from hedging from the monetary system that they trust and believe in. It’s the same as the  “mining death spiral” narrative.



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