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Author Topic: Eurozone crisis, what do I short, what do I buy......  (Read 1435 times)
YoYa
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November 29, 2011, 12:36:28 AM
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Always easy to say in hindsight what ya should of done when you saw the shit going for the fan in slow motion, but this time I've got the cash to do so. Gold and Silver ain't such a sure thing, at the moment, maybe if the timing is right after the run to cash, but I'm more interested in now.
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Bimmerhead
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November 29, 2011, 12:40:45 AM
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My novice guess would be to short the EUR/long the USD.

US$-denominated debt will likely contract faster than the Fed is printing.

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November 30, 2011, 05:53:05 AM
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My novice guess would be to short the EUR/long the USD.

US$-denominated debt will likely contract faster than the Fed is printing.
A sure way to burn yourself. Are you sure you wanna blow your money on forex based upon a media hype?

Yes Europe is in bad shape and the Euro practically toast. But the market can remain irrational for a looong time, longer than you can hold out most likely.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
MimiTheKid
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November 30, 2011, 09:52:24 AM
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When you have got enough money and time to watch the charts
--> Short term trading. And then your short/long-positions change very often.

If not: Hands off.
Spend your money in investments, which keep their values:
properties, blueChips (eastern europeans maybe, us/eurs are still to expensive), or small caps you know.
And if you "need" money-investments: Brasilia? Argentina? South Africa? Mozambique!
Ukigo
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November 30, 2011, 10:36:34 AM
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Why Mozambique ?

What exactly do you suggest to buy there ?

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
S3052
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November 30, 2011, 10:53:42 AM
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My novice guess would be to short the EUR/long the USD.

US$-denominated debt will likely contract faster than the Fed is printing.
I am short EUR/USD since 1.41 and keep that position. We may see 1.2 and lower in the next weeks and months

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fivebells
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November 30, 2011, 11:12:21 AM
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MimiTheKid is right.  This is a hard time to invest wisely in.  It's not just markets doing irrational things, its governments moving markets with irrational policies.  Unless you have inside information on what those policies are going to be (which does happen, but probably not to you), your investments will be based on speculation about the mental states of politicians and bureaucrats.

At this stage, sheer wealth preservation is a worthy objective.  If you can hold on to your money until things settle down, and invest it then, you could do very well.

Soros's book The new paradigm for financial markets: the credit crisis of 2008 and what it means is a good read, if you're into this sort of thing.
fivebells
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November 30, 2011, 05:14:01 PM
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See what I mean about governments doing irrational things which move markets? Smiley
MimiTheKid
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November 30, 2011, 08:11:31 PM
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Why Mozambique ?

What exactly do you suggest to buy there ?

Find a mircocredit-organisation you trust, and check that you get paid back in "meticals".

That will make more sense, and you don't depend on crazy politicans and irrational bankers.

The big companies are going up and with the price of alu,or other properties. They are a little bit too risky.
YoYa
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December 01, 2011, 08:09:50 PM
 #10

Thanks for the advice, the irrationality gets me, but at the same time we're in a contrarian age. In 2008 it was gold that was the captain hind sight moment, but in our current irrational times, it's not such a sure thing. It's of note that investors are taking cash to be such a solid bet, but on the other hand we see the Euro and the dangers cash can experience.

How are people feeling about GBP and NZD atm? I'm curious because I have interests in both.
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December 01, 2011, 10:26:29 PM
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How are people feeling about GBP and NZD atm? I'm curious because I have interests in both.

NZD/EUR looks like if it is about to rally to new highs. Very bullish.

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