When to exit

[philipma1957]

Pretty much this. Now is time to mine and sell eth, once eth crashes 95% then is time to buy back, do not end up holding the bag, so sell and dont look back, everything is already in bubble state, this can crash to hehell anytime.

Metroid I used to hate (just kidding  ) your coments because you always told the truth about mining and have a good knowledge about market, I used to think you're a troll, but I can see clearly some facts and obvious stuff about mining and cycles.

It were all new to me in 2017 and I always wanted to mining 24/7 for years and years, but I studied your posts with some other great users here like philipma and people who posts in his thread, and I become very good at cryptos, and I'm happy with my profits

I wish all the market goes to the moon, ETH to 5k, BTC to 100k, of course, but I'm realistic, and I'm prepared to another cycle of market, if bear comes or if bull continues, I'm prepared to both scenarios
I remember when you post a lot about ETH at less than 150 USD, to buy as much as possible, look now, more than 10x of profits

So thank you!!!


About the thread and exit plan, even if you guys are opmistic, it's doesn't hurt to have a plan if the market crashes, make some stop points, have some savings to pay electricity etc, don't forget that some months ago the profits are small, less than 1 USD per 5700xt for example, if ETH crashs again, bye bye profitability and small farms

Metroid is a stud. gives a shit ton of good advice.

I am lucky I managed to fine a really good power deal. I never have to worry about profit on mining. Other then dead gear issues.

My power deal is 50-50 coin spilt which at the moment is super good for the warehouse owner.

But in late 2018 and most of 2019 and some of 2020 it was a super good deal for me.

I know that eth will trail off
I know that LTC/Doge will back off
I know that BTC will back off

When they do I can still mine and earn 1/2 the coins I mine. 2021 is on track for the best year I ever have.

But even with all of the above. I still sell coin.

When my million doge went from 2500 usd value to 17000 usd value in early Jan I sold 300000 for 5100 and kept 700000 just in case.  then doge mooned I sold 666000 at an average of 5 cents or 33,300 usd.  I still have 34000 Doge just in case and we mine 10000 DOGE monthly

   I am older 64 wish I was 34  as just to see mining and crypto in the year 2050 means I would be 93.
Which means my  max window for the game is about 29 years.
If I were 34 I would think differently as my max window for the game would be 93 years.

I doubt I ever fully stop mining but my physical health do to aging will likely reduce it a lot.

For now

 I sell my ETH as I mine 3.6 ETH a month
 I sell my LTC as I mine 5 LTC a month
 I stack and hold DOGE as I mine 10000 doge a month
 I stack and hold BTC as I mine .228 BTC  a month I add to this due with some eth sales.

All numbers above are before I spilt coins with ware house owner

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[Rainbow Bear]

Its going to be the same story as last time, hashrate will keep skyrocketing and profits will drop drastically, then all these new miners will be left bagholding their hardware that will be worth next to nothing.

You know how many people would love to earn money sitting home doing no work, A LOT, barrier to entry in mining is so low and it gets flooded with new miners looking for an easy paycheck.

Pretty much this. Now is time to mine and sell eth, once eth crashes 95% then is time to buy back, do not end up holding the bag, so sell and dont look back, everything is already in bubble state, this can crash to hehell anytime.

ETH going to crash 95%? So back to $100 ?

Its funny because I remember you ( I think it was you) who was saying that ETH will go to $2000 when ETH was $100. So you were pretty much spot on. I even assumed that ETH might hit max $400-500 when it was trading at $100. Never would of assumed it would break the ATH of $1400 with all those ICO people still dumping funds.

So I am getting nervous because you seem to be spot on when it comes to predicting these things. Did ETH crash 95% last time? The peak was $1420 and low was like $80 so 94% drop. Crazy.

Metroid remained positive about ethereum and stayed mega bullish. There was so much FUD about ethereum, going under $100 was quite scary.

[ipanks]

If you want to stop mining, make sure you already have so many coins in your wallet, so that can be your investment for your future. The bear trend will come later, but no one will know for sure. So while you still have time to mining, you should use it to earn more rewards from the mining process. But people do not want to stop mining if they see the mining potential because they can earn good rewards from that process.

[Metroid]

Maybe it is not bubble yet. i will not forgive myself if eth goes to 5k-10k. i call that bubble

If you think 20 times the price it was 2 months ago is not a bubble then I have no idea what is a bubble to you, to me anything that has had any sudden 10x rise in price is already in a bubble state.

You see, I'm not saying it will not go to 5k or 10k, I'm saying that is better to be safe than sorry because this market can crash any time, there are too many red flags at moment to count, the main red flag here is coins that had around 100 usd volume per month are having millions of usd of volume in a day, coins that nobody even knew are having 200% daily, nothing makes sense. So when I see that, I know this bullrun is coming to an end, yes this can become even more delusional. For example, you don't see anything crashing, only going up, no corrections at all, just going up but this has a side effect and once this market starts going down, it will be the same as before, january 2018 is a good example, you will see the amrket only going down, so at moment we are only seeing huge gains, everybody happy, everybody bagholding and accumulating, soon we will see everybody sad, dreams crushed, nobody wanting to hold the bag anymore and everybody running for usd.

You have to decide that for yourself, like I said before is better to miss an opportunity that you know it has a very high chance to go against you at this moment.


Economic or asset price bubbles are often characterized by one or more of the following:

"Unusual changes in single measures, or relationships among measures (e.g., ratios) relative to their historical levels. For example, in the housing bubble of the 2000s, the housing prices were unusually high relative to income.[33]

For stocks, the price to earnings ratio provides a measure of stock prices relative to corporate earnings; higher readings indicate investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings.[34]

Elevated usage of debt (leverage) to purchase assets, such as purchasing stocks on margin or homes with a lower down payment.

Higher risk lending and borrowing behavior, such as originating loans to borrowers with lower credit quality scores (e.g., subprime borrowers), combined with adjustable rate mortgages and "interest only" loans.

Rationalizing borrowing, lending and purchase decisions based on expected future price increases rather than the ability of the borrower to repay.[35]

Rationalizing asset prices by increasingly weaker arguments, such as "this time it's different" or "housing prices only go up."

A high presence of marketing or media coverage related to the asset.[11]

Incentives that place the consequences of bad behavior by one economic actor upon another, such as the origination of mortgages to those with limited ability to repay because the mortgage could be sold or securitized, moving the consequences from the originator to the investor.

International trade (current account) imbalances, resulting in an excess of savings over investments, increasing the volatility of capital flow among countries. For example, the flow of savings from Asia to the U.S. was one of the drivers of the 2000s housing bubble.[36]

A lower interest rate environment, which encourages lending and borrowing."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

Check this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble

I already can see most points ticked here. I see trolls saying this very often "this time it's different", yeah right.

[Furryball]

Mining is already dead.

ANY MINING IS DEAD RIGHT NOW. Devs are going to push PoS on ETH because the number of hashrate from GREEDY GUYS has gone to the roof. They are going to stop it as soon as possible.
 
Before PoS, EIP 1559 will be implemented, and people will get something around 50% less than now. But still, greedy guys will say: hey! i'm making 2 dolars a day in summer overheating my house!Worth the suffering!!!

And once ETH goes PoS, PROBABLY 600TH OF HASHRATE will have to search for a living, and there will NO LIVING COIN TO REMAIN PROFITABLE ONCE THIS OUTRAGEOUS NUMBER OF GPUS FLOOD THE MARKET.

The matter is not WHEN TO STOP. The matter is WHEN MINING IS GOING TO INSTA-DIE.

Why are you calling miners greedy people? Ethereum is the one that introduced PoW algorithm, don't forget that and people who don't have money can't even become a miner, it's costs alot to become a miner, you are a complete joke  if ethereum becomes less profitable we will mine conflux, yesterday this coin is more profitable to mine than ethereum, there are other coins as well

[batsonxl]

Maybe it is not bubble yet. i will not forgive myself if eth goes to 5k-10k. i call that bubble

If you think 20 times the price it was 2 months ago is not a bubble then I have no idea what is a bubble to you, to me anything that has had any sudden 10x rise in price is already in a bubble state.

You see, I'm not saying it will not go to 5k or 10k, I'm saying that is better to be safe than sorry because this market can crash any time, there are too many red flags at moment to count, the main red flag here is coins that had around 100 usd volume per month are having millions of usd of volume in a day, coins that nobody even knew are having 200% daily, nothing makes sense. So when I see that, I know this bullrun is coming to an end, yes this can become even more delusional. For example, you don't see anything crashing, only going up, no corrections at all, just going up but this has a side effect and once this market starts going down, it will be the same as before, january 2018 is a good example, you will see the amrket only going down, so at moment we are only seeing huge gains, everybody happy, everybody bagholding and accumulating, soon we will see everybody sad, dreams crushed, nobody wanting to hold the bag anymore and everybody running for usd.

You have to decide that for yourself, like I said before is better to miss an opportunity that you know it has a very high chance to go against you at this moment.


Economic or asset price bubbles are often characterized by one or more of the following:

"Unusual changes in single measures, or relationships among measures (e.g., ratios) relative to their historical levels. For example, in the housing bubble of the 2000s, the housing prices were unusually high relative to income.[33]

For stocks, the price to earnings ratio provides a measure of stock prices relative to corporate earnings; higher readings indicate investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings.[34]

Elevated usage of debt (leverage) to purchase assets, such as purchasing stocks on margin or homes with a lower down payment.

Higher risk lending and borrowing behavior, such as originating loans to borrowers with lower credit quality scores (e.g., subprime borrowers), combined with adjustable rate mortgages and "interest only" loans.

Rationalizing borrowing, lending and purchase decisions based on expected future price increases rather than the ability of the borrower to repay.[35]

Rationalizing asset prices by increasingly weaker arguments, such as "this time it's different" or "housing prices only go up."

A high presence of marketing or media coverage related to the asset.[11]

Incentives that place the consequences of bad behavior by one economic actor upon another, such as the origination of mortgages to those with limited ability to repay because the mortgage could be sold or securitized, moving the consequences from the originator to the investor.

International trade (current account) imbalances, resulting in an excess of savings over investments, increasing the volatility of capital flow among countries. For example, the flow of savings from Asia to the U.S. was one of the drivers of the 2000s housing bubble.[36]

A lower interest rate environment, which encourages lending and borrowing."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

Check this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble

I already can see most points ticked here. I see trolls saying this very often "this time it's different", yeah right.

Someone told here i dont remember the post sell your eth when it is time it was 1200$ or 1400$ i dont remember that one also clearly. i sold 50/50 of my ethers i regret that because now it is 1970$ only thing im happy that i hold half of it. This bull market is different than 2017 this time btc and coins holding their position for a long time.in 2017 it was like only one month and finish very fast. now it is like 2 months.

[Rainbow Bear]

I do think mining profitability will drop tremendously over the next few months. That being said, I don't think crypto will ever experience huge crashes like it has before. (top cryptos). So much fiat money has been created recently, the dollar is losing value rapidly. Corporations are pushing heavily into crypto. This is not like the last bullrun and crash.  Ethereum has a lot of room to grow and wouldn't even consider selling any before $4,000.

[fr4nkthetank]

unless global warming eliminates winter, I will always need the heat.

[zorachus99]

EIP1559 won't stop mining mate, do your own research, it will reduce miners profits if that's what you referring to but if this is why you don't feel like building a mining rig now you are doing mistake, PoW Algorithm is going to be here for a long time

My mining pool has already REJECTED the upgrade.

[btcshiner]

This is a great question.  I think that if you have made your investment and haven't thought of an exit strategy you need to look at it.  You hear the professionals talk about being disciplined, taking money off the table, and playing with the house's money.

You can never go wrong taking a profit.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Everyone's situation is different.  

Currently we are in a situation where hardware I purchased last summer has paid for itself.  Is producing almost as much as I paid for it on a bi monthly basis. Easily sells for twice as much as I paid for it.  IE a 5700 I paid $329 is producing $7 a day, $210 a month and sells for almost $800 used on eBay so $675-$700 net.

I sold some last Year to pay for my initial costs.  I wish I held but I had a plan and stuck to it.  Sell on new highs, hold 25% and pay monthly electricity costs.

I sell some BTC every week or on new all time highs and am looking at pulling off my initial investments in alts so it's all house money.

My goal is to get to a point I can make $50 a day in passive income during a bear market with everything being paid off during the bull run.  

[twan69666]

I must agree with Metroid, I think we're in a bubble as well. Things are just up and up and up. There hasnt been a correction in months. We're overdue for a correction and overdue correction's hit hard.

Is this time different? Yeah, for Bitcoin, and maybe Eth due to DeFi, but everything else is B-U-B-B-L-E.

Eth mining will be pulling way back and probably sooner vs later. What's going to take it's place? Good question. Something will be there, but to Eth's power and price? TBD.

Now isnt a good time to totally exit, but it is a good time to lock in some crazy profit

[adaseb]

I think the reason why people getting suckered into paying $500 for an RX 480 8GB is because they don't exactly know what they are getting into. They watch some youtube videos on how to start mining, then they look at a few mining calculators and see that the GPU can pull in $5/day.

So they got dollar bills in their eyes, they assume they discovered something that most people haven't discovered and basically want some extra cash on the side doing nothing. However they don't realise that there is something called difficulty. So every day they will get a small cut of the profits. And its not sustainable for BTC and ETH to keep rallying like this forever.

$1T market cap is huge, how many publiclity traded companies have a higher market cap than that? Maybe about 5. Hence its not going to be as easy going to $2T just because we hit $1T recently.

[fr4nkthetank]

I have to agree with you guys.  Probably the pump isnt close to done yet, maybe a month left, 50% higher btc, I surely dont know.  All I know is that a 5700 makes 9$ cad a day roughly, but costs lets say 1000$ used.  That's bubble territory since my rigs ROI every 50 days considering what I paid / normal price for them a while ago.  There are people I know who are "investors" and have 6 figures in the "market", yet I do not believe they have made a single bitcoin or crypto transaction in their life, nor do they care to.  In fact, they think that holding your own bitcoin is *bad* and too "complicated".  A lot of people worship this Saylor guy, who is basically a 90s tech IPO bubble fraud (literally). Saying when a bubble pops is almost impossible as irrationality is boundless but maybe 50% higher btc and 1-3 months.  If march 2022 then thats interesting but probably 2021 

"You know how many people would love to earn money sitting home doing no work, A LOT"
>Damn right, Someone once told me with a straight face that since home prices always go up we should all quit our jobs and live off the HELOC.  The society we live in is officially messed up in the head and its going to get worse so ignore all that, be happy, be grateful for what you have and keep mining efficiently at low fixed/variable costs./  Heres a song for yall https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhqyZeUlE8U

[adaseb]

I remember the top signal back in 2018 was when some dude put in a bunch of GPUs in his Tesla and was mining in his Tesla probably because he was getting the power for free somehow. Never owned an electrical vehicle so no idea how it works. But in my area I see some "free EV charging" stations in malls and what-not. Most likely in more dense places like LA or NY there are tons more of these.

Another top signal is when GPUs are sold out to the point that people are buying Desktop Gaming PCs and ripping the GPUs out because its cheaper to buy an entire desktop rather than just 1 GPU. There was a thread here and apparently its possible to mine ETH with an Xbox/PS5, so eventually consoles are going to get sold out.

[btcshiner]

I remember the top signal back in 2018 was when some dude put in a bunch of GPUs in his Tesla and was mining in his Tesla probably because he was getting the power for free somehow. Never owned an electrical vehicle so no idea how it works. But in my area I see some "free EV charging" stations in malls and what-not. Most likely in more dense places like LA or NY there are tons more of these.

Another top signal is when GPUs are sold out to the point that people are buying Desktop Gaming PCs and ripping the GPUs out because its cheaper to buy an entire desktop rather than just 1 GPU. There was a thread here and apparently its possible to mine ETH with an Xbox/PS5, so eventually consoles are going to get sold out.

Does it have to be a Tesla?  This guy is mining from his BMW although he says it's just to piss off gamers. 

Pretty sure it's the same guy that has 78 or so 3080's mining since last October.

https://www.coindesk.com/us-man-installs-crypto-mining-rig-in-hybrid-bmw-sportscar

[philipma1957]

When should we exit.

No one should exit from this.
mine stack sell
if you mine 1000 a week sell 667 of it stack 333 of it.
no more complex than the ratio above.

you simply need to understand that right now more gear = bad.
mine stack sell.
if sell 66.7 to  keep 33.3 feels wrong
go to  sell 75.0 and keep 25.0
or go to sell 60.0 and  keep 40.0

do not expand your gear at this moment -  unless you get a very good price for warrantied new gear and  still be careful



I will quote this post.

Note the bold section.

all facts now does it mean a thing nope.

Just like the subject says, the more Bitcoin goes up this bull run, the most correction it will have, people who thinks this will go up without stopping are very naive.
This is not the time to buy, don't be a fool to buy at 50K.

My death is inevitable.  I was born in 1957 so most likely I will be dead before 2077 as most people don't get to be 120 years old.

What you simply are missing is why are we at 57k

btw your advice means your followers lost out on a 14%  gain 50k to 57k.

To place your bets so to speak on BTC price you need to come up with an upside number.

and of course a down side number. In a time frame.

I pick 2030 as I will be 73 and I won't be looking to invest and mine I would like to travel

in 2030 the Downside number  is $0

in 2030 the Upside number is 500k

It is obvious how I get the downside number.

How do I get the upside number.

I add the value of BTC to the value of gold.

About 1 trillion and 11 trillion is 12 trillion right now.

I figure 100% inflation by 2030 so 24trill would be the combined value of BTC and Gold

if ratio stays the same it is 2 trillion to 22 trillion.  making btc worth 100k

but due to the discovery of much gold on asteroids and the ability to mine it bring gold  closer to a useful more common metal such as iron or lead.

I feel btc has to be at a market cap of 6-11 trillion or 300k to 550k in 2030

Look at the facts below

Musk buys btc
Musk explores space
Musk builds Tesla cars
Nasa to check out a gold filled asteroid in 2022
Lots of gold is on asteroids close by
 
A gold battery lasts 100x long than a lead battery
Ford is fully converting to electric cards in Europe by 2030

So if BTC ends up storing wealth  rather than gold and gold ends up in batteries  instead of lead. your advice is really bad.

Does this mean I will buy 350k worth of btc with all my 'safe' money no.

But 300k stays in safe and 50k stays in  btc.

I come back to this in 2030.

By the way this could  be like leaving horse and buggy for cars.

we now are leaving gas cars for electric cars
and ol/coal/gas heat for electric heat.

If my quoted post is close to coming true. A full exit = a full fuck up

[adaseb]

I remember the top signal back in 2018 was when some dude put in a bunch of GPUs in his Tesla and was mining in his Tesla probably because he was getting the power for free somehow. Never owned an electrical vehicle so no idea how it works. But in my area I see some "free EV charging" stations in malls and what-not. Most likely in more dense places like LA or NY there are tons more of these.

Another top signal is when GPUs are sold out to the point that people are buying Desktop Gaming PCs and ripping the GPUs out because its cheaper to buy an entire desktop rather than just 1 GPU. There was a thread here and apparently its possible to mine ETH with an Xbox/PS5, so eventually consoles are going to get sold out.

Does it have to be a Tesla?  This guy is mining from his BMW although he says it's just to piss off gamers. 

Pretty sure it's the same guy that has 78 or so 3080's mining since last October.

https://www.coindesk.com/us-man-installs-crypto-mining-rig-in-hybrid-bmw-sportscar

LOL. I guess history repeats itself. No I had to look it up and it was this article

https://electrek.co/2017/11/29/tesla-mining-bitcoin-model-s-supercharger-power/

Basically this was Nov 2017. So 3 years later people are doing the exact same thing pretty much only with newer GPUs.

So we got Elon Musk, Snoop Dogg, that KISS rock star pumping Dogecoin
We got that rapper Soulja Boy pumping shitcoins on his twitter
We got Lindsay Lohan pumping NFTs, BTC, ETH, Tron on her twitter
Tai Lopez who is already a millionaire asking on Twitter "So BTC will hit $250K for sure, right? One of my friends wants to invest"

Only event that's missing is Katy Perry didn't get Crypto nails like last time...

[xxcsu]

When to exit

You the one who can tell yourself You must to do your own research , you must diced how far you can go

[Paycheck]

I know that the coin prices can't go up forever, but I sure hope they stay at their current level (or go up, that's okay too) for a few months.  I'm cranking some decent cash out for myself right now.

I'll be prepared to convert my BTC to dollars when the price starts to tumble, then keep mining for a while then offload my GPUs to some noob on ebay.  Since 2013 I've gone through 3 cycles of buying GPUs, mining and selling.  And 1 cycle of ASICs.  My biggest victory was buying 3 Avalon 741s for $2000 in late 2017, mining with them for a little over a month, then selling them on ebay for SIX GRAND shortly before the prices crashed.

I've looked for ways to steal a bunch of GPUs (yes you read that right, I would if I could), but opportunities to do so aren't common around here.  At least not in enough volume to make it a worthwhile risk.

So enjoy it while it lasts, save money, then wait for the dip and buy back in at the bottom, and HODL again!

I think a key metric to watch is ebay prices.  When any average GPU is going for crazy money, time to sell your hardware.  The price dip isn't far away.

[fr4nkthetank]

Dont try to steal mine, my doggo will eat you no joke   He protec