how do they know?

[Slow death]

how do they know?

today I saw this on cointelegraph.com:

If the bulls can sustain the price above $50,000 for three days, the BTC/USD pair could rally to $60,974.43 where the bears may step in.

the price never reached $60,000, so how can they know that in the $60,000 region it will be where bears can step in?

does technical analysis become something like a future forecast? because how would it be possible to assume that if the price reached $60,000, something X would happen if not even the price ever reached $60,000? this Is technical analysis or premonition?

edit:

to make the discussion easier here is the source of the news:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-2-17-btc-eth-dot-ada-xrp-bnb-ltc-bch-link-xlm

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[Ryker1]

Well, that belongs to the technical analysis because the author was predicting the market and I don't have a problem with that because I saw different articles having a lot of speculation regarding the bitcoin price. I remember some on an article that I have read there is $100k prediction with in this year.

If the bulls can sustain the price above $50,000 for three days, the BTC/USD pair [ could ] rally to $60,974.43 where the bears [ may ]step in.

The words ^[could] and ^[may] that the author used were still assuming that the price will hit $60k and that belongs to prediction because the author does not even sure about that.

[GreatArkansas]

It's not 100% sure. Just like what Ryker1 said, speculation, pure technical analysis.
That's why if you are do trading, you have a plan, you have entry price, target price, and most important is the stop-loss in incase your analysis will invalidate in the future.
Speaking of the chart by Cointelegraph, it is clear that Bitcoin is creating support in the $50,000 area which is can probably be tested if Bitcoin will break below on it or will stay above.

[Strongkored]

No, they don't know about the BTC price in the future, they just try to predict the price by looking at the chart movement, and also usually when predicting they will not say with the words "sure" is only a possibility, in fact they will only mention the time range not the exact date when the prediction will occur.
Even in the stock market there are often price predictions with price ranges as well as cutloss suggestions if the price movement is not in line with what has been predicted

[stompix]

how do they know?

They don't know!
It's a "price analysis" that usually starts by pulling numbers out of you know what and then finding whatever arguments you can to build upon that theory, just as you start building a house by buying the carpets first.

Check the author, he is writing such analysis every damn week, they need articles and they would publish everything:
https://cointelegraph.com/authors/rakesh-upadhyay

This was posted on January 31:

If the bears can sink and sustain the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($29,407), the pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. This could result in a drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,897.42 and then to the 61.8% retracement level at $22,106.73.

Nowadays everyone is a trading expert, everyone is a price analyst and a blockchain specialist no matter how much stupid mumbo jumbo he writes down.
He does a what if the price goes up case and a what if the price goes down scenario and hits post, one of them might be accurate.

[Slow death]

The words ^[could] and ^[may] that the author used were still assuming that the price will hit $60k and that belongs to prediction because the author does not even sure about that.

so far I would also agree with the author, but the problem is that he says that the bears will intervene when the price reaches $60,000, that in my opinion was like saying: "the great resistance is at  $60,000..." but if the person in the chart doesn’t even see $60,000.... I like the technical analysis they do, but at the same time I am puzzled by certain things I see

It's not 100% sure. Just like what Ryker1 said, speculation, pure technical analysis.
That's why if you are do trading, you have a plan, you have entry price, target price, and most important is the stop-loss in incase your analysis will invalidate in the future.

true, if only he had said that if the price broke the $52600 we could see more rises I would agree with him, but it ruined everything when he talked about the $60,000

Speaking of the chart by Cointelegraph, it is clear that Bitcoin is creating support in the $50,000 area which is can probably be tested if Bitcoin will break below on it or will stay above.

well for me i would only be concerned if the price dropped below $44000 and $39000

[...]

if the author sees your post, he will cry all day and never create any article again

[ice18]

Thats the power of technical analysis the article maybe right it all depends on the chart data the author uses a Fibonacci level to predict the next price movement it only indicates where the resistance and support likely to occur but its only analysis its not always 100% accurate unless there's a confirmation.

[TheUltraElite]

Lets hope the author does not see this thread and the criticism others have posted. But this is very common among these crypto news media websites which is why I never read their topics in detail without accepting the grain of salt.

Bullish or bearish, they are posting what they feel technical is showing them. You might have a different opinion. Personally I think to cross 55k USD bitcoin needs much more support and a bearish drop is imminent but I might be proven wrong.

For example when DOGE was rising I predicted the price to stop at 0.075USD and ordered accordingly but it crossed 0.08 but then dropped back to 0.07 and is now at 0.053 - Therefore my selling point was close to perfect. But the news media was pumping doge like crazy - I would have missed that opportunity to dump my doge stash if I didnt take that action.

Never listen to these unregulated opinionated news articles without doing your own research. You will end up like any other no-coiner.

[crwth]

It's discussed there that since the prices are still above the 20-EMA and RSI being overbought, it clearly means that the Bulls are in control. It indicates most people are looking forward to seeing higher highs and not looking to sell at this price.

It's not that he knows it, but he predicts that it will go to that level if it continues at this rate, but it will clearly invalidate his claim, hence they don't know.

All of their posts about price action are always going to be a prediction. If you check the last part of the article, it states this as seen below.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I don't understand why they meant by "bears stepping in". Anyhow, it seems that they have contradict themselves here, going to $60k and then after that it will be dumping? There are still a lot of scenario here, maybe we can go and continue to rise after surpassing $60k is also possible. And come to think of it, we are in bull run, so I doubt that the bears can simply insert their picture right now. And I heard this theory as well at $50k and so far it didn't happened.

[joniboini]

You should take it with a grain of salt. Most of these writers do this because of money, some of them rewrite it from other sites, and so on. In a bull or bear market nearly everyone can make a good guess since the trend is fairly strong. See what happens when we're in sideway or there's a lot of uncertainty, most of them would write one thing today and another tomorrow.

[ashmodeus]

its totally prediction , and let's me guess, did u long BTC right now ?  seems u very worried about the BEAR 60k xD , for now , i don't think any prediction its neccesary , since a lot of suprise coming . for example , that dogecoin, any prediction about doge fall when Elon Musk join to the party. even the bull seems forgot to stop for a while .

[Kelvinid]

You should take it with a grain of salt. Most of these writers do this because of money, some of them rewrite it from other sites, and so on. In a bull or bear market nearly everyone can make a good guess since the trend is fairly strong. See what happens when we're in sideway or there's a lot of uncertainty, most of them would write one thing today and another tomorrow.

They are much speculative and they don't have an ending alibi as well if they got wrong.

Doing speculation, market predictions, it is only an imagination, and of course, it can't be reliable. That word uncertainty remains all the time. We can't make it right and we are always wrong especially when doing TA.

And those NO-HOW individuals will be enlightened, but then, they don't know that they are just fooled. 

[ipanks]

Maybe they have a vision that can predict when the price will increase to that number

We can do like them, and that is another analysis from other people about how they predict the bitcoin price moves. But I think the bear can come to any moment, including after the price touch the higher price now. We do not have to worry about that because as long as we can analyze the market, we can be ready for anything.

[el kaka22]

These type of stuff usually mean that "if the price hits 60k, there is a whole lot of people selling a whole lot of bitcoins that worth whole lot of dollars and that would be very hard" and that's about it. Nothing really special about that, you could make the same logic for dropping as well, for example there is a very slim chance that price could go under 27k, and when I say that I know I could be wrong, because there is no guarantee in bitcoin or in trading, but I say it because there is a good support around those lines and we need to go down that much AND break that support so it is of course harder.

Same goes for getting higher and why Author mentioned that price, we have a good resistance point and not only we will have to go to 60k, we also need to break over that resistance which makes it very difficult. It is of course not impossible, it is just an assumption.

[isaac_clarke22]

~

It's merely forecasting from the slope of the graph. From the pattern it made even with naked eye, many people would now be suddenly be a "finance expert".
Trust me. If we were still half of that line, no one would pop out to claim that the price would reach even 50k.
No one knows, because BTC is unstable.

[so98nn]

Yes, all the theories and mathematics (or algorithm) plays the major role in the above analysis. As you can read along the way in this thread, everyone has different opinion about the speculations, the way analysis is done. In similar fashion author has put-forth the theory in his way.

You can search for these words associated with these predictions tools namely: Momentum, Martingales, Search for value, Candle stick theory etc. These are general topics with vast methodologies.

The thing is every tool will conclude the market future in different ways too.

By nature we are always prone to believe the "+" position of the market and hence always happier about it when we read.

On the other hand, don't forget these analysis could fail if suddenly Elon wants to sell out his 1.5 billion worth BTC's or if he put another in the market. So market search and current affairs are also major factors.

"No theory is perfect".

[passwordnow]

It is not a guarantee. That is just the same as other predictions that are giving good price for bitcoin if ever it reaches this and that. Technical analysis are being published in different crypto news websites to give also content to their daily submission of articles and that's why some analysts are providing it for them or even it's being provided by the author himself. They really don't know the price in the upcoming future but they're calling the price which is the obvious that might come soon.

[sheenshane]

I tend to agree with the posts above, that author claimed himself as a good in technical analysis, his in 15 years of experience on trading and probably his prediction is right but it doesn't mean all his prediction gave 100% accurate result.  As per see, the author of that article was presumably predicting the price of Bitcoin with the confidence of himself that it will happen.

If you will have a look at what all his articles had published it's all about technical prediction and it seems this dude, trying to give his own forecast with a full of assumptions.

But let see, it might his right or wrong at least we know that no one can predict the market price.  TA and even FA don't have a guarantee.

[milewilda]

In calls like these then this do particularly basing up on technical analysis with some mix up with some speculation.You can possibly draw out those lines
and presume that bears would really be stepping it and those are just probabilities thats why some of those analysis neither could hit or miss out
that situation.Its been like this since from the start where ahead prices and possible retracement or consolidation would possibly happen
but doesnt mean that it would really be precise overall.So its up to you if you would tend to follow or not.

[Shasha80]

Don't believe too much in Bitcoin price predictions, they are only speculating with the analysis they are doing. Since no one actually can predict
the price of Bitcoin with accuracy, even if their prediction is true, it is just a coincidence. Now there are tons of articles related to Bitcoin price
predictions, and there is nothing wrong with predicting Bitcoin price movements. What we have to do is make these predictions only as a comparison
with the results of our own analysis. Never believe 100% of other people's predictions.

[seramania]

so they are predictions. I already know a lot of people predict that. some even say that "if the price of $ 50k is reached it looks like it could hit $ 100k" this looks crazy isn't it. but all that already there is calculation and analysis. we just wait for that moment at a later date

[Fatunad]

Predictions and presumptions out of those analysis that you had make.

You can draw out or spoke out words getting into those lines that you had drawn.These kind of analysis and words is flooding out in the market
every now and then and it isnt only on the time where the market is growing but also when the market is on very bearish run.
We can see that  there are people saying that bitcoin would go back to $1 basing of technicals.

[Twinkledoe]

Predictions and presumptions out of those analysis that you had make.

You can draw out or spoke out words getting into those lines that you had drawn.These kind of analysis and words is flooding out in the market
every now and then and it isnt only on the time where the market is growing but also when the market is on very bearish run.
We can see that  there are people saying that bitcoin would go back to $1 basing of technicals.

Yes, basically they are mere predictions. So it can either be true or go on the opposite side. So don't think that those predictions are reliable because it is not. In reality, there are so many things to consider and most of them can't be accommodated by those graphs. But sometimes, it is good to see such predictions and then when the time comes, you can go back and check how far or near they are in actual figures.

[Jaycee99]

Anything you see is only a prediction they do not know they can just figure it out with a fifty-fifty chance of it can happen and it can't happen but still, they studied how the market works.

As of now the best thing you do is to study at the same time make the research that you did. Plus I want to say this they only just predict the positivity and the people who are interested in bitcoin correct me if I am wrong anyone.

They cannot predict on people who will sell their share and that it will affect the market that those technical analyses did not see.

Keep in that you should not base on those at least, not 100 percent rely on. You should at least study.

If you do rely on this prediction would suggest please think again.

I once searched for January 2021 prediction it was said a 50k but it did not only for a 40k but to drop, I wish I save it for you to see that those research of yours are not 100 percent reliable.

"It is uncertain"

[LUCKMCFLY]

The news and predictions are just that, maybe the author ventured to make those statements, but one way to see a lot of information is through the volume, the funny thing is that it does not make an analysis of the volume, nor does it show it on the chart.

Another way of looking at it is that he analyzes the chart by days and not by weeks or months in order to at least be able to predict with greater precision, what I suspect is that he may be following his knowledge in chart figures.

[electronicash]

they are only speculating that bears will come in. of course traders will dump as they profit and well they can consider them bears but this bull market has just begun. there are only a few people who are participating in Initial DEX offering (IDO) yet which i think will make the market rise. it may dip temporarily for a week or two and then burst once again. There few institutions that had come yet.

[isaac_clarke22]

~

I think even the most professional investor/trader in crypto industry would still be wrong sometimes at this. There isn't guarantee to where the price will go.
It's like a toss of the coin. The force of the toss is where the speculation comes from, while here in crypto the pattern of the price, spikes, etc are like the knowledge that there's a probability for a certain price movement.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

how do they know?

the price never reached $60,000, so how can they know that in the $60,000 region it will be where bears can step in?

They aren't always right as when the FOMO is too much the price could easily cross that resistance we were seeing previously from the charts. What the analyst do revolves around interpreting what the charts are saying with some little experience but that doesn't mean the trades will play out as they have interpreted although most times that's usually the case.

From the charts, what the analyst is interpreting is saying, there's a resistance at $60k which is why he's predicting a correction to occur. Now here's how this plays out physiologically, many traders who would had seen this prediction will work in accordance and make their next decision in line with it, which is why many so called professional traders that have lots of followers using this to manipulate the market to their favour.

[maydna]

how do they know?

They don't know. They just speculate and predict what might happen to bitcoin if the price can break by $50k. It is happening now because bitcoin prices already break $55k, and the highest price of bitcoin is at $56,600, according to Binance. So bitcoin price is closer to $60k, which the price can reach in the next day or this day if the bullish trend still stays in the market. But what we need to be careful about is the next thing that will come to bitcoin after the price reaches the highest price because the price will make a correction, and we will not know when that happens to the market.

[pooya87]

The fact that this person is talking about "bears" in a "bull market" should be more than enough indication that they are full of it.

Apart from that, looking at the charts and also the history of bitcoin "bears" can never step in while price is constantly rising. We always see small to medium size corrections that act as bear traps during this time that trap traders like this person to empty their pockets because they simply go against the market trend.

Keep in mind that these people have been saying pretty much the same thing ever since bitcoin price went above $4k for the first time after the reversal from the bottom. They were expecting "bears to step in" and take the price down to $1k and they still do!

[ubercool]

It's a speculation, prediction, or he might be just praying to God that Bears should step in at the point where he predicted so that he can call himself a great technical analytic. Some of the telegram group admins are better than these people. Also, it depends on the publishing sites, some of them are supportive of crypto and some of them just post to get some views. No one can predict like that with numbers.

[Reid]

Scary huh? 
These guys are good at what they are doing. Almost accurate.
But, it's still a prediction. We can't even say it is a 50-50 percent chance. It's more like just 10 percent or lower for it to happen.
Well, it's 55k now and on the road to 60k.
I doubt a big bear would come. This could continue until it reaches its peak where no one can afford it anymore.
Someone will need to take his profits and dump it.

[Ridwan Fauzi]

Actually it was just a prediction and maybe they weren't sure that their analyst can happen 100%. The technical analyst only use a history, I mean how its previous chart pattern and etc. Whereas all the price movement are not depend on that, there is fundamental factor that can change the price movement.

The increasing price can stop and give a bearish sign if there is something bad happen like a bad news for bitcoin. Although technically it has broken the sideaway market it is not guarantee that the price will increase more than that. I often see, when the price broken out the box line and back to range box because there is a bad news come.

[cabron]

Its now almost $60k. They were just saying the possibility, as of now there is no sign yet that there will be cause for a dump but just the chart speculation. Normally there will be a fundamental analysis that should go in accordance with the bearish market and if this news isn't yet selling, the price of BTC will continue to go up. There are only few institutions coming, there should be more.

[Yatsan]

It is not actually that accurate to be stated. It is just a forecast or prediction of what could be possible to make happen once the inputted data comes into such point wherein assuming that predicted outcome will get into such then this might happen. It is just like calculating sorts of probabilities and combinations on how things might work in the future. Pure technical analysis but that does not mean to be accurate. It is just merely a prediction so you do not have to worry about it. Better to see things coming in front of your eyes not to cause panic on your own self or get worried on the possibilities that something might just happen.

[TheUltraElite]

so they are predictions. I already know a lot of people predict that. some even say that "if the price of $ 50k is reached it looks like it could hit $ 100k" this looks crazy isn't it. but all that already there is calculation and analysis. we just wait for that moment at a later date

It is more reasonable to say that if 50k is crossed which has already occured, the next target will be 60k usd. Now that might be touched soon but as per the topic being discussed here, the bears will take over at that price. Let's see how much selling pressure builds up at that price a s whether the prediction becomes reality.

But such news articles are just opinions and not to be taken for granted like I previously said. Trade after doin your own research and not after reading random prediction news which any random person can write.

[Bitum]

This year will be very interesting for us. I bet BTC will crack 100K by the end of the year. ETH also looks very good, and there are a number of perspective projects. The only thing that worries me is the unhealthy interests of states

[dimonstration]

This year will be very interesting for us. I bet BTC will crack 100K by the end of the year. ETH also looks very good, and there are a number of perspective projects. The only thing that worries me is the unhealthy interests of states

I don’t think they will put too much restriction during pandemic since many companies were using it now for their businesses and may cause some problems in their economic too since they were able still to get tax from those companies like Paypal, Grayscale and even with Elon. They might put or note some advises but not in the point that they will just shut it down or ban like many governments used before since there are companies who already believes in its usage.