how do they know?

[Slow death]

how do they know?

today I saw this on cointelegraph.com:

If the bulls can sustain the price above $50,000 for three days, the BTC/USD pair could rally to $60,974.43 where the bears may step in.

the price never reached $60,000, so how can they know that in the $60,000 region it will be where bears can step in?

does technical analysis become something like a future forecast? because how would it be possible to assume that if the price reached $60,000, something X would happen if not even the price ever reached $60,000? this Is technical analysis or premonition?

edit:

to make the discussion easier here is the source of the news:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-2-17-btc-eth-dot-ada-xrp-bnb-ltc-bch-link-xlm

[1715594679]

1715594679

[Ryker1]

Well, that belongs to the technical analysis because the author was predicting the market and I don't have a problem with that because I saw different articles having a lot of speculation regarding the bitcoin price. I remember some on an article that I have read there is $100k prediction with in this year.

If the bulls can sustain the price above $50,000 for three days, the BTC/USD pair [ could ] rally to $60,974.43 where the bears [ may ]step in.

The words ^[could] and ^[may] that the author used were still assuming that the price will hit $60k and that belongs to prediction because the author does not even sure about that.

[GreatArkansas]

It's not 100% sure. Just like what Ryker1 said, speculation, pure technical analysis.
That's why if you are do trading, you have a plan, you have entry price, target price, and most important is the stop-loss in incase your analysis will invalidate in the future.
Speaking of the chart by Cointelegraph, it is clear that Bitcoin is creating support in the $50,000 area which is can probably be tested if Bitcoin will break below on it or will stay above.

[Strongkored]

No, they don't know about the BTC price in the future, they just try to predict the price by looking at the chart movement, and also usually when predicting they will not say with the words "sure" is only a possibility, in fact they will only mention the time range not the exact date when the prediction will occur.
Even in the stock market there are often price predictions with price ranges as well as cutloss suggestions if the price movement is not in line with what has been predicted

[stompix]

how do they know?

They don't know!
It's a "price analysis" that usually starts by pulling numbers out of you know what and then finding whatever arguments you can to build upon that theory, just as you start building a house by buying the carpets first.

Check the author, he is writing such analysis every damn week, they need articles and they would publish everything:
https://cointelegraph.com/authors/rakesh-upadhyay

This was posted on January 31:

If the bears can sink and sustain the price below the 50-day simple moving average ($29,407), the pair will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. This could result in a drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,897.42 and then to the 61.8% retracement level at $22,106.73.

Nowadays everyone is a trading expert, everyone is a price analyst and a blockchain specialist no matter how much stupid mumbo jumbo he writes down.
He does a what if the price goes up case and a what if the price goes down scenario and hits post, one of them might be accurate.

[Slow death]

The words ^[could] and ^[may] that the author used were still assuming that the price will hit $60k and that belongs to prediction because the author does not even sure about that.

so far I would also agree with the author, but the problem is that he says that the bears will intervene when the price reaches $60,000, that in my opinion was like saying: "the great resistance is at  $60,000..." but if the person in the chart doesn’t even see $60,000.... I like the technical analysis they do, but at the same time I am puzzled by certain things I see

It's not 100% sure. Just like what Ryker1 said, speculation, pure technical analysis.
That's why if you are do trading, you have a plan, you have entry price, target price, and most important is the stop-loss in incase your analysis will invalidate in the future.

true, if only he had said that if the price broke the $52600 we could see more rises I would agree with him, but it ruined everything when he talked about the $60,000

Speaking of the chart by Cointelegraph, it is clear that Bitcoin is creating support in the $50,000 area which is can probably be tested if Bitcoin will break below on it or will stay above.

well for me i would only be concerned if the price dropped below $44000 and $39000

[...]

if the author sees your post, he will cry all day and never create any article again

[ice18]

Thats the power of technical analysis the article maybe right it all depends on the chart data the author uses a Fibonacci level to predict the next price movement it only indicates where the resistance and support likely to occur but its only analysis its not always 100% accurate unless there's a confirmation.

[TheUltraElite]

Lets hope the author does not see this thread and the criticism others have posted. But this is very common among these crypto news media websites which is why I never read their topics in detail without accepting the grain of salt.

Bullish or bearish, they are posting what they feel technical is showing them. You might have a different opinion. Personally I think to cross 55k USD bitcoin needs much more support and a bearish drop is imminent but I might be proven wrong.

For example when DOGE was rising I predicted the price to stop at 0.075USD and ordered accordingly but it crossed 0.08 but then dropped back to 0.07 and is now at 0.053 - Therefore my selling point was close to perfect. But the news media was pumping doge like crazy - I would have missed that opportunity to dump my doge stash if I didnt take that action.

Never listen to these unregulated opinionated news articles without doing your own research. You will end up like any other no-coiner.

[crwth]

It's discussed there that since the prices are still above the 20-EMA and RSI being overbought, it clearly means that the Bulls are in control. It indicates most people are looking forward to seeing higher highs and not looking to sell at this price.

It's not that he knows it, but he predicts that it will go to that level if it continues at this rate, but it will clearly invalidate his claim, hence they don't know.

All of their posts about price action are always going to be a prediction. If you check the last part of the article, it states this as seen below.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I don't understand why they meant by "bears stepping in". Anyhow, it seems that they have contradict themselves here, going to $60k and then after that it will be dumping? There are still a lot of scenario here, maybe we can go and continue to rise after surpassing $60k is also possible. And come to think of it, we are in bull run, so I doubt that the bears can simply insert their picture right now. And I heard this theory as well at $50k and so far it didn't happened.

[joniboini]

You should take it with a grain of salt. Most of these writers do this because of money, some of them rewrite it from other sites, and so on. In a bull or bear market nearly everyone can make a good guess since the trend is fairly strong. See what happens when we're in sideway or there's a lot of uncertainty, most of them would write one thing today and another tomorrow.

[ashmodeus]

its totally prediction , and let's me guess, did u long BTC right now ?  seems u very worried about the BEAR 60k xD , for now , i don't think any prediction its neccesary , since a lot of suprise coming . for example , that dogecoin, any prediction about doge fall when Elon Musk join to the party. even the bull seems forgot to stop for a while .

[Kelvinid]

You should take it with a grain of salt. Most of these writers do this because of money, some of them rewrite it from other sites, and so on. In a bull or bear market nearly everyone can make a good guess since the trend is fairly strong. See what happens when we're in sideway or there's a lot of uncertainty, most of them would write one thing today and another tomorrow.

They are much speculative and they don't have an ending alibi as well if they got wrong.

Doing speculation, market predictions, it is only an imagination, and of course, it can't be reliable. That word uncertainty remains all the time. We can't make it right and we are always wrong especially when doing TA.

And those NO-HOW individuals will be enlightened, but then, they don't know that they are just fooled. 

[ipanks]

Maybe they have a vision that can predict when the price will increase to that number

We can do like them, and that is another analysis from other people about how they predict the bitcoin price moves. But I think the bear can come to any moment, including after the price touch the higher price now. We do not have to worry about that because as long as we can analyze the market, we can be ready for anything.

[el kaka22]

These type of stuff usually mean that "if the price hits 60k, there is a whole lot of people selling a whole lot of bitcoins that worth whole lot of dollars and that would be very hard" and that's about it. Nothing really special about that, you could make the same logic for dropping as well, for example there is a very slim chance that price could go under 27k, and when I say that I know I could be wrong, because there is no guarantee in bitcoin or in trading, but I say it because there is a good support around those lines and we need to go down that much AND break that support so it is of course harder.

Same goes for getting higher and why Author mentioned that price, we have a good resistance point and not only we will have to go to 60k, we also need to break over that resistance which makes it very difficult. It is of course not impossible, it is just an assumption.

[isaac_clarke22]

~

It's merely forecasting from the slope of the graph. From the pattern it made even with naked eye, many people would now be suddenly be a "finance expert".
Trust me. If we were still half of that line, no one would pop out to claim that the price would reach even 50k.
No one knows, because BTC is unstable.

[so98nn]

Yes, all the theories and mathematics (or algorithm) plays the major role in the above analysis. As you can read along the way in this thread, everyone has different opinion about the speculations, the way analysis is done. In similar fashion author has put-forth the theory in his way.

You can search for these words associated with these predictions tools namely: Momentum, Martingales, Search for value, Candle stick theory etc. These are general topics with vast methodologies.

The thing is every tool will conclude the market future in different ways too.

By nature we are always prone to believe the "+" position of the market and hence always happier about it when we read.

On the other hand, don't forget these analysis could fail if suddenly Elon wants to sell out his 1.5 billion worth BTC's or if he put another in the market. So market search and current affairs are also major factors.

"No theory is perfect".

[passwordnow]

It is not a guarantee. That is just the same as other predictions that are giving good price for bitcoin if ever it reaches this and that. Technical analysis are being published in different crypto news websites to give also content to their daily submission of articles and that's why some analysts are providing it for them or even it's being provided by the author himself. They really don't know the price in the upcoming future but they're calling the price which is the obvious that might come soon.

[sheenshane]

I tend to agree with the posts above, that author claimed himself as a good in technical analysis, his in 15 years of experience on trading and probably his prediction is right but it doesn't mean all his prediction gave 100% accurate result.  As per see, the author of that article was presumably predicting the price of Bitcoin with the confidence of himself that it will happen.

If you will have a look at what all his articles had published it's all about technical prediction and it seems this dude, trying to give his own forecast with a full of assumptions.

But let see, it might his right or wrong at least we know that no one can predict the market price.  TA and even FA don't have a guarantee.

[milewilda]

In calls like these then this do particularly basing up on technical analysis with some mix up with some speculation.You can possibly draw out those lines
and presume that bears would really be stepping it and those are just probabilities thats why some of those analysis neither could hit or miss out
that situation.Its been like this since from the start where ahead prices and possible retracement or consolidation would possibly happen
but doesnt mean that it would really be precise overall.So its up to you if you would tend to follow or not.