Bitcoin NUPL Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

[dkbit98]

If you are trading Bitcoin you should pay attention on Net Unrealized Profit/Loss chart showing the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss, and it also shows how much of bitcoin circulating supply is in profit or loss.
It is one of the good indicators showing several market stages (Capitulation, Hope/Fear, Optimism/Anxiety, Belief/Denial, Greed/Euphoria) and when is the best time to buy more or sell and take some profits.
We can see what happened in past with previous Bitcoin bull runs with two main website sources Glassnode and Lookintobitcoin.com.

NUPL = Relative Unrealized Profit − Relative Unrealized Loss

            Market Cap − Realized Cap
         = ------------------------------
                      Market Cap

Let's see Glassnode NUPL first with red color showing best times to buy more Bitcoin in Capitulation stages and blue color showing best time to sell because we reached top and stage of Greed in market.
According to Glassnode NUPL we are currently in Belief/Denial stage and you can notice below all the blue tops in previous bull markets of 2011, 2013 and 2017.


https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss

Second good website would be Lookintobitcoin.com with chart indicator developed by Tamas Blummer, Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet.
It shows a bit different stages than Glassnode and according to them we entered the Greed stage for Bitcoin.



https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

Using both of this websites can be useful to spot the top and bottom but don't look them isolated from other indicators but look wider picture and current world economic situation.
Combination of NUPL, BTC Stock-to-Flow, and MVRV Z-Score indicators may be the best for average traders.

[so98nn]

It means that at every ATH people are either struggling to have belief or denial that, "how come the price is so much?", Ï guess it's gonna fall now? May it will go up, sort of feelings are there.

Im not sure if I am exploring the above chart in correct way but that's what it feels to me.

This is more or less "bulls" and "bears"are fighting against each other.

One positive thing to notice, there is no greed or euphoria of the market at all. This might indicate that people are jumping straight into the bitcoin with no second thoughts and acquiring it as future investment.

The graph so tells us, bitcoin gonna move up further for sure.


Well, overall what does NUPL suggests us about bitcoin?

[dkbit98]

The graph so tells us, bitcoin gonna move up further for sure.

We are getting near the Greed and Euphoria stage but this could go much higher before we get in the blue zone, and like I said NUPL chart should be watched in combination with other indicators.

One of those indicators is made by GMI GlobalMacroInvestor and it is called GMI Metcalfe Model value based on Metcalfe's Law, and from report written last year it was very optimistic in predicting much higher valued Bitcoin by the end of 2021, and 1M value by 2025.
In this report written by their CEO Raoul Pal they say that only Bitcoin and Gold could save us and/or make us rich in future, and that everyone needs to own a Bitcoin.

What is Metcalfe's Law?

Metcalfe’s Law is a concept used in computer networks and telecommunications to represent the value of a network. Metcalfe's Law states that a network's impact is the square of the number of nodes in the network.

https://www.techopedia.com/definition/29066/metcalfes-law

Metcalfe's Law was initially used for telecommunications but it was later adopted and adjusted to predict Bitcoin price, network value and market price.
According to this report from 2018 and others, Bitcoin price is following Metcalfe's Law very nice.

GMI Model Metacalfe Value


https://www.globalmacroinvestor.com/

[robbertwerry]

The graph so tells us, bitcoin gonna move up further for sure.

We are getting near the Greed and Euphoria stage but this could go much higher before we get in the blue zone, and like I said NUPL chart should be watched in combination with other indicators.

One of those indicators is made by GMI GlobalMacroInvestor and it is called GMI Metcalfe Model value based on Metcalfe's Law, and from report written last year it was very optimistic in predicting much higher valued Bitcoin by the end of 2021, and 1M value by 2025.
In this report written by their CEO Raoul Pal they say that only Bitcoin and Gold could save us and/or make us rich in future, and that everyone needs to own a Bitcoin.

What is Metcalfe's Law?

Metcalfe’s Law is a concept used in computer networks and telecommunications to represent the value of a network. Metcalfe's Law states that a network's impact is the square of the number of nodes in the network.

https://www.techopedia.com/definition/29066/metcalfes-law

Metcalfe's Law was initially used for telecommunications but it was later adopted and adjusted to predict Bitcoin price, network value and market price.
According to this report from 2018 and others, Bitcoin price is following Metcalfe's Law very nice.

GMI Model Metacalfe Value

https://i.imgur.com/JT3eDHR.png
https://www.globalmacroinvestor.com/

Where can I find the real time chart of this one? Can't seem to find it! Thanks

[dkbit98]

Where can I find the real time chart of this one? Can't seem to find it! Thanks

There is no free live chart for showing GMI Model Metacalfe Value and it is limited even for NUPL Net Unrealized Profit/Loss if you don't have Glassnode premium account.

[JooBra]

Where can I find the real time chart of this one? Can't seem to find it! Thanks

There is no free live chart for showing GMI Model Metacalfe Value and it is limited even for NUPL Net Unrealized Profit/Loss if you don't have Glassnode premium account.

So for premium account there is live charts? I looks pretty dope. Hope some more info for people who use it so we can have first hand experience.

[JustNeedTruth]

LookIntoBitcoin.com does not update the last few days.

Is it broken?

Is there a way to set this up in google sheets so everyone can generate on their own?

[dkbit98]

LookIntoBitcoin.com does not update the last few days.

Is it broken?

Is there a way to set this up in google sheets so everyone can generate on their own?

It's not broken and I just checked and confirmed the last date on their NUPL chart is April 12th, but if you want full access, indicator alerts and scripts you need to pay subscribe fee that is around $19 per month, and similar thing is for Glassnode charts.
There is not way to set up this in some google sheets.

[el kaka22]

I do believe that we have been in stage of "could it go higher? How can it be this high???" level for about 30k dollars for now. That has been the case for the past 30k. Please try to remember that these charts usually show one thing 5 months ago, and show something else today, 5 months ago it could have been at this current stage if calculated right, and 5 months later it is still at this stage as well when calculated accordingly.

These charts are obviously one part of calculating how much it will be, and what people think it will be, there is no denying that they matter, but the reality is that by alone they worth nothing at all. Which is why I do not trade based on these, most of the time I forget to even look at these, I am a long term investor so for me the job is easy, just buy and hodl, nothing really that takes knowledge, but even I know that I am not worried just yet.

[hugeblack]

The NUPL index ignored an important point, which is the profit achieved after taxes are deducted from it. Therefore, reliance on it may be achieved after losses after it is deducted.

Also, the above charts need updating, as I believe that the green points represent above the level of 30 thousand dollars because we have not witnessed a correction by more than 80%, so if the price reaches a level above 100 thousand (which is something that could happen) then the levels from 20 thousand to 30 thousand Are logical.