Trump owns the Republican party

[suchmoon]

I was gonna say "Trump holds the Republican party by the balls" but it obviously doesn't have any.

As if there ever was much doubt where this is heading - albeit some here on this board seemed to think that Trump is fading into irrelevance after the Capitol riot - this headline is one of the best reflections of reality:

https://www.businessinsider.com/pence-declines-cpac-invite-as-trump-and-allies-take-over-2021-2

Mike Pence will not be attending the CPAC conference this year, an organizer confirmed.

Instead, Donald Trump is the highest-profile guest, alongside many of his allies.

Just think about it for a minute. Pence. Not nuts enough for the CPAC. Amazing. Can't blame him though for not wanting to be in the same room with a guy who sicced a mob of lunatics on him.

Good news - Trump is not creating a new party. He already has one.

[gredinger]

If I remember correctly, a poll said something like 45% of Republicans would leave the party if Trump started a new party.

I'd imagine that number is closer to 50-60% at this point.

Then again, with First-past-the-post, if Trump did split the Republican party, that'd mean a ton of victories for Democrats up and down the ballot.

[suchmoon]

Then again, with First-past-the-post, if Trump did split the Republican party, that'd mean a ton of victories for Democrats up and down the ballot.

The way things stand now, a split would mean that McConnel et al leave to create their own party, not the other way round. I doubt they'll do it despite all their rhetoric. Like never-trumpers in 2016, they'll quietly sneak back to kiss Trump's ring.

Even with a split, given polarization and gerrymandering it might not be all victories for Democrats. They might even end up losing some swing seats they recently got if there are two parties to compete against and some independents flip back to supporting whatever moderate Republican offshoot might emerge.

[franky1]

i think trump has secretly done the damage to the republicans
although some politicians are still under some income contract from the RNC pot of cash. most republicans will know trump has also raided the rnc pot of money and left them with very little for future projects. they will slowly deny access to trump from getting his hands on the RNC pot again once their contracts end
.. well unless he refills it

yep they had to stay loyal between nov-feb as they had grants/donations attached. but a new era has began.
lets see how the republican donations/grants play out to win back loyalty.. or not

[theymos]

Yeah, the Republican party looks like it'll have a rough 5-10 years. It seems to be splitting into a Trump half and a neocon half, and honestly I'm not sure that either is politically all that viable. If Trump still had 95% approval within the Republican party, I doubt he'd win against Biden in 2024. If everyone including Trump got behind Mitt Romney for 2024, Romney would probably lose even worse than Trump would. Disunited, it's even more hopeless, and they might even lose ground in the House and Senate in 2022 despite the Republicans' structural advantages.

Most politicians actually want to win, and they actually care at least a little bit about beating the opposing party for ideological reasons, so they wouldn't do a lot of what Trump is doing. But Trump just cares about being the center of attention, so he's perfectly happy burning the Republican party to the ground.

A lot can change in 2-4 years, though. Maybe Trump won't be able to regain enough support, or maybe he'll work out a truce with establishment Republicans. (Hell, maybe he'll be in prison due to eg. the NY investigations, or dead/disabled due to old age.) One thing to keep in mind is that Trump's coalition includes a lot of working-class people who were either picked off from the Democrats or were previously non-voters, and Biden's coalition includes a lot of Republicans/ex-Republicans. If you split the country up into three segments of Democrat-leaning, pro-Trump Republican-leaning, and anti-Trump Republican-leaning, it's very possible that the pro-Trump Republican-leaning segment would be a distant third, though the Democrat-leaning segment would probably have a comfortable plurality among the three.

Another thing that's important to realize is that even if the Republican party is crippled by infighting for 10 years (which is very possible), those ex-Republicans will now be Democrats. This means that they will eventually change the Democratic party to bring it closer to the ideology of the Republican defectors. It's not as if the Democrats have won the game now, and so now they have free reign to roll out eg. AOC's vision of the country. We're seeing the coalitions shift, not the final conclusion of the game where one side wins it all. (It's interesting to compare my thoughts on shifting coalitions from a year ago to what's actually happening.)

Although I've tended to prefer the Republican party in the past, unfortunately the result of the Democrats partially absorbing the Republicans will probably be a worse Democratic party from my perspective, with the Democrats taking the worst aspects of the Republican party. The median between Joe Biden and Mitt Romney is worse than either Obama or Trump IMO.

[PrimeNumber7]

I think the best thing for the Republican Party would be for Trump to maintain a lot of influence, but not personally run for office. He could be a king-maker of sorts.

I would find it hard to believe that Trump would be able to win a national election anytime soon, however, he does attract voters who would not normally vote Republican to vote for him. If a serious Trump supporter were to get the 2024 nomination and have Trump's backing, they could potentially keep the voters that Trump attracts, while not losing the voters that Trump turns off. Someone who does not fall into the trap of fighting with everyone who criticizes him.

I would say that Flordia Governor Ron DeSantis would stand a very good chance of winning the Presidency if he were to get the Republican nomination in '24. He has handled covid very well, balancing the need of protecting the vulnerable with the need of keeping his citizens employed and the economy working.

I think Pence is upset that his life was in what was probably serious danger from Trump supporters, and Trump did nothing to call of the riot as it was happening. There are reports that House Minority Leader McCarty called Trump during the riot, asking Trump to ask his supporters to go home, and did not get the help he was asking for. I don't think Pence spoke to Trump since the riot, but I would not be surprised if someone on Pence's staff had reached out asking for similar help, and did not get it.

[franky1]

its very simple
trump lost by 47.87% of the national vote
after the capital incident his loyalty declined below 47%

if there was another biden/trump election today trump would lose again but with a wider loss

republicans know right now they dont have the support for  republican win under current circumstances

they have citizen support for trump of under 47%
they have senate support for trump of under 43%
and those numbers are declining

time to put trump aside and give a new guy a try

[squatz1]

Then again, with First-past-the-post, if Trump did split the Republican party, that'd mean a ton of victories for Democrats up and down the ballot.

The way things stand now, a split would mean that McConnel et al leave to create their own party, not the other way round. I doubt they'll do it despite all their rhetoric. Like never-trumpers in 2016, they'll quietly sneak back to kiss Trump's ring.

Even with a split, given polarization and gerrymandering it might not be all victories for Democrats. They might even end up losing some swing seats they recently got if there are two parties to compete against and some independents flip back to supporting whatever moderate Republican offshoot might emerge.

As we get closer and closer to CPAC it seems that Trump will just exert his influence on the GOP instead of making his own party. Though just the threat of him making his own party scares the hell out of Republicans b/c he still commands the support approx 60% of the party.

While Republicans in Washington may be scared of McConnell and his senate influence, individual GOP voters really will go with whatever Trump says on the matter so I highly doubt Trump will lose his grip now.

The ultimate test of if he was going to maintain his control was the Capitol siege, and he was still able to control the Republicans through that so there’s no reason to say he cant continue onwards from here.

Can’t wait to see what this guy says at CPAC. Probably just going to be what he’s wanted to say on Twitter for weeks now.

[franky1]

the game is not to split the republicans. because that 47% will drop.
the game is to have subgroups of different pledges that appeases different people for different reasons all under the umbrella voting group of republican

EG trump managed to convince the capitalist group and the libertarian group and the socialist group, the closed up patriotic group and the open international free market group that he will do their bidding in 2016

he lost 4 years later because he shifted to only care about the capitalist patriots. and causing chaos within the other groups during those 4 years
trump only promised to help the lower level citizens if they vote him in again.. which is why badecker and other republican nuts think trump should get in to finally get something in their favour.

trump breaks his promises. so just get over the fact that trump promised something if he got in again. it would never have happened. thats not his game. so give someone else a chance.

[suchmoon]

As we get closer and closer to CPAC it seems that Trump will just exert his influence on the GOP instead of making his own party. Though just the threat of him making his own party scares the hell out of Republicans b/c he still commands the support approx 60% of the party.

While Republicans in Washington may be scared of McConnell and his senate influence, individual GOP voters really will go with whatever Trump says on the matter so I highly doubt Trump will lose his grip now.

The ultimate test of if he was going to maintain his control was the Capitol siege, and he was still able to control the Republicans through that so there’s no reason to say he cant continue onwards from here.

Can’t wait to see what this guy says at CPAC. Probably just going to be what he’s wanted to say on Twitter for weeks now.

So the CPAC went as you would expect, Trump in full authoritarian mode calling out his enemies (Repulicans who voted for impeachment) by name and telling his supporters to go after them in the primaries.

But this is something new:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-sent-cease-desist-letters-gop-campaign-committees-n1259824

Attorneys for former President Donald Trump sent cease-and-desist letters Friday to three Republican organizations asking them to stop using the former president's name and likeness in fundraising appeals and merchandise, a Trump adviser said Saturday.

The letters were sent to the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senate Committee — arms of the party tasked with raising money and shaping messaging, among other things, for the midterm elections and beyond.

RNC finally decided to grow a spine and stand up to the reality TV superstar:

https://news.yahoo.com/rnc-maintains-trumps-name-fundraising-235125299.html

The Republican National Committee is defending its right to use former President Donald Trump's name in fundraising appeals after he demanded they put an end to the practice.

In a Monday letter to Trump attorney Alex Cannon, RNC chief counsel J. Justin Riemer said the committee “has every right to refer to public figures as it engages in core, First Amendment-protected political speech" and said "it will continue to do so in pursuit of these common goals.”

Nah I'm just kidding. They'll just funnel more money to his properties to appease him:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/542206-rnc-to-hold-part-of-donor-retreat-at-mar-a-lago

The Republican National Committee (RNC) will hold part of its spring donors retreat next month at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.

Trump seems to be determined to take over as much of the GOP fundraising as he can, which I think is his main goal over the next 4 years, and I don't think he cares much about the actual election results. If anything, having Democrats in power probably works better for that purpose.

[squatz1]

As we get closer and closer to CPAC it seems that Trump will just exert his influence on the GOP instead of making his own party. Though just the threat of him making his own party scares the hell out of Republicans b/c he still commands the support approx 60% of the party.

While Republicans in Washington may be scared of McConnell and his senate influence, individual GOP voters really will go with whatever Trump says on the matter so I highly doubt Trump will lose his grip now.

The ultimate test of if he was going to maintain his control was the Capitol siege, and he was still able to control the Republicans through that so there’s no reason to say he cant continue onwards from here.

Can’t wait to see what this guy says at CPAC. Probably just going to be what he’s wanted to say on Twitter for weeks now.

So the CPAC went as you would expect, Trump in full authoritarian mode calling out his enemies (Repulicans who voted for impeachment) by name and telling his supporters to go after them in the primaries.

But this is something new:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-sent-cease-desist-letters-gop-campaign-committees-n1259824

Attorneys for former President Donald Trump sent cease-and-desist letters Friday to three Republican organizations asking them to stop using the former president's name and likeness in fundraising appeals and merchandise, a Trump adviser said Saturday.

The letters were sent to the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senate Committee — arms of the party tasked with raising money and shaping messaging, among other things, for the midterm elections and beyond.

RNC finally decided to grow a spine and stand up to the reality TV superstar:

https://news.yahoo.com/rnc-maintains-trumps-name-fundraising-235125299.html

The Republican National Committee is defending its right to use former President Donald Trump's name in fundraising appeals after he demanded they put an end to the practice.

In a Monday letter to Trump attorney Alex Cannon, RNC chief counsel J. Justin Riemer said the committee “has every right to refer to public figures as it engages in core, First Amendment-protected political speech" and said "it will continue to do so in pursuit of these common goals.”

Nah I'm just kidding. They'll just funnel more money to his properties to appease him:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/542206-rnc-to-hold-part-of-donor-retreat-at-mar-a-lago

The Republican National Committee (RNC) will hold part of its spring donors retreat next month at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club.

Trump seems to be determined to take over as much of the GOP fundraising as he can, which I think is his main goal over the next 4 years, and I don't think he cares much about the actual election results. If anything, having Democrats in power probably works better for that purpose.

Trump actually put out another statement today telling supporters of the GOP to donate money directly to him, instead of donating to the party / committees within the party. Here is that:

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1369110810690285576?s=10

Donald Trump is going to try as hard as possible to maintain his grip on the party, and up to now he has succeeded in doing that. People in the party still love him, and any issues that Mitch and co were showing they’ve had to relax on b/c the voters were giving them hell for it.

Crazy shit man. Curious to see what midterms look like with all of the GOP retirements (5 GOP in the Senate)

[suchmoon]

Trump actually put out another statement today telling supporters of the GOP to donate money directly to him, instead of donating to the party / committees within the party. Here is that:

Oh fantastic. It's also great to see NYT acting as his proxy on Twitter

In case of any doubt about Trump's motives, money is always a safe bet. I have long believed that he will stay in politics after losing the 2020 election just to collect donations (and launder them through his properties etc), just didn't think he'll do it so blatantly. But why not, he owns the party, he can do no wrong.

[PrimeNumber7]

So the CPAC went as you would expect, Trump in full authoritarian mode calling out his enemies (Repulicans who voted for impeachment) by name and telling his supporters to go after them in the primaries.

I find it weird for someone to describe someone trying to hold politicians accountable for their votes via the political process as "authoritarian". I thought it would be expected for voters to hold their elected officials accountable at the ballot box when elected officials vote in ways their constituents do not agree with.

[OgNasty]

Trump still owning real estate in weak liberal’s heads is hilarious. The only positive of a Democrat president is less whiny liberals yelling nonsense in our lives. Let the Trump Derangement Syndrome go and stop trying to be such a worthless troll all the time.

[Mauser]

I mean trump was president a few month ago, of course he is still well connected in his party. And patently he is planning to run for office again in 2024. 4 years is a long time, a lot can happen until then. There might be younger people coming and take the crown from Trump away. At this point we just have to wait and see what is going to happen. I think the republican candidate in 2024 will be someone else.

[suchmoon]

This probably completes the transformation of the GOP to Trump's personal party. I wonder if they kick McConnell out too... maybe if they lose midterms they can blame him.

Top U.S. Republicans on Sunday sought to portray their expected ouster of Representative Liz Cheney as an act of unity, despite warnings that the move could deepen divisions over former President Donald Trump and sink party hopes in the 2022 elections.

In the strongest sign yet that Cheney faces defeat in a party vote expected on Wednesday, the top Republican in the House of Representatives said he would back congresswoman Elise Stefanik to replace the Wyoming Republican as chair of the 212-member House Republican Conference.

Republicans hope to reclaim majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives in next year's congressional elections. Most lawmakers have sought to placate Trump and the Republican voters who enthusiastically support him, despite the loss of both chambers and the White House during his presidency.

And then there is this, because you can't let something like bad poll numbers hurt wannabe dictator's feewings:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) did not disclose internal polling that revealed dismal numbers for former President Donald Trump in key swing districts during the House GOP retreat in April, according to two sources who spoke with The Washington Post.

During a presentation at the Florida retreat, NRCC staffers reportedly withheld the information even when pressed by a member of Congress regarding Trump's support.

The polling data showed Trump's favorability ratings underwater, with his unfavorable ratings 15 points higher than his favorable numbers, according to The Post.

[Cnut237]

The polling data showed Trump's favorability ratings underwater

I'm not a fan of Trump, but I have to say that his favourability ratings with me are much higher when he's underwater (preferably without breathing apparatus). If we can keep him there, then this sounds like a great idea. It will probably also help to counter his toxic emanations.

[cmg777]

Yeah, the Republican party looks like it'll have a rough 5-10 years. It seems to be splitting into a Trump half and a neocon half, and honestly I'm not sure that either is politically all that viable. If Trump still had 95% approval within the Republican party, I doubt he'd win against Biden in 2024. If everyone including Trump got behind Mitt Romney for 2024, Romney would probably lose even worse than Trump would. Disunited, it's even more hopeless, and they might even lose ground in the House and Senate in 2022 despite the Republicans' structural advantages.

Most politicians actually want to win, and they actually care at least a little bit about beating the opposing party for ideological reasons, so they wouldn't do a lot of what Trump is doing. But Trump just cares about being the center of attention, so he's perfectly happy burning the Republican party to the ground.

A lot can change in 2-4 years, though. Maybe Trump won't be able to regain enough support, or maybe he'll work out a truce with establishment Republicans. (Hell, maybe he'll be in prison due to eg. the NY investigations, or dead/disabled due to old age.) One thing to keep in mind is that Trump's coalition includes a lot of working-class people who were either picked off from the Democrats or were previously non-voters, and Biden's coalition includes a lot of Republicans/ex-Republicans. If you split the country up into three segments of Democrat-leaning, pro-Trump Republican-leaning, and anti-Trump Republican-leaning, it's very possible that the pro-Trump Republican-leaning segment would be a distant third, though the Democrat-leaning segment would probably have a comfortable plurality among the three.

Another thing that's important to realize is that even if the Republican party is crippled by infighting for 10 years (which is very possible), those ex-Republicans will now be Democrats. This means that they will eventually change the Democratic party to bring it closer to the ideology of the Republican defectors. It's not as if the Democrats have won the game now, and so now they have free reign to roll out eg. AOC's vision of the country. We're seeing the coalitions shift, not the final conclusion of the game where one side wins it all. (It's interesting to compare my thoughts on shifting coalitions from a year ago to what's actually happening.)

Although I've tended to prefer the Republican party in the past, unfortunately the result of the Democrats partially absorbing the Republicans will probably be a worse Democratic party from my perspective, with the Democrats taking the worst aspects of the Republican party. The median between Joe Biden and Mitt Romney is worse than either Obama or Trump IMO.

I agree with a lot of what you said here. I'd say that the neo-cons like Romney hurt by Trump will just become Democrats or still possibly be RINOs as usual. The Dems and the RINO Neo-Cons may as well be called "The party" (like consolidated Communist China) as politics like business seems to be consolidating to a neo-feudal power keg that will continue to divide the once free peoples  of the world. The only solution is BTC but they will try to break even that with their "Green New Deal": shutting down energy refinement (Keystone and Colonial pipelines (yeah right Russians attacked this it was the Dems... I bet they honeypoted the Russian hackers to break it like the left always does), raise taxes on coal and other energy sources and shut down infrastructure (Biden's infrastructure plan is a big bilk of FED Stamps for him and his buddies in government) "racist" highways and bridges and I'm not making this up (This came from Buttgag).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agenda-behind-buttigiegs-claim-that-highways-are-racist-11618847867