Next target 40-42k area before new ATH? See 2 year moving average

[Bossian]

Green line is 2 year moving average, red line is 2 year moving average x 5.

This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run, it would mean right now we could be in July-September 2017 repeat, meaning huge move on the upside in the next few months?

Also, this chart is very interesting because it indicates once we overtake the red line, the rise in price is very sudden and very sharp and a big crash follows after that. And bear in mind that those 2 lines always go up so the red line could very well be around 80k once we go above it. So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.

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[Bossian]

Every time we saw a rejection at the red line (2 year moving average x 5) we saw a 30%-35% dump, we are not there yet (only 23% so far).


(Source: Philip Swift).

[orions.belt19]

Interesting trend pattern; it would be cool to see if current trend will follow-suit.

Following this, then we could probably expect the rise to happen around mid-year? June or July perhaps? Also if we are to follow the 2017 bull run, it looks to be we'll experience a couple more dumps before hitting that sharp rise. At what price do you think will we be overtaking the red line? Around $100K? Then huge dump afterwards or stronger support due to more institutional involvement? Or an extended bull run?

[suchmoon]

I'm still waiting for the "Double bottom @ 3.1k or lower low @ 2k?" - what happened to that one? I'm ready to buy a few coins at $2k.

[el kaka22]

Honestly this doesn't mean that we are going to see a whole new ATH that is incredibly higher, because we have already gone up so much already, it is already quite high, and there is really no reason for it to go up like it did from September 2017 to December 2017, that was nearly a 20x increase, which would put bitcoin to nearly a million dollars per bitcoin level and I do not think that will happen.

However this also doesn't mean that charts do not lie, this is what should happen ; the price of bitcoin should drop somewhere near 42k levels, which maybe that 45k we bottomed was, and then it should probably go up to 100k or so levels, that is what it "should" do of course, we do not know if it will do that or not, maybe it will not do that at all who knows. Hopefully this was a healthy correction and we are going to have a slightly higher all time high soon.

[AliMan]

Green line is 2 year moving average, red line is 2 year moving average x 5.

This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run, it would mean right now we could be in July-September 2017 repeat, meaning huge move on the upside in the next few months?

Also, this chart is very interesting because it indicates once we overtake the red line, the rise in price is very sudden and very sharp and a big crash follows after that. And bear in mind that those 2 lines always go up so the red line could very well be around 80k once we go above it. So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.

The bigger the pump, this is also a potential dump when whales got an idea behind this analysis. Indeed, predicted values is really great achievement when perfect time will come, but $100k upward is really difficult because of several speculations that affects the growth of btc. I'd would wish $20k will come back then we will buy more asset before top price predictions happens.

[Kemarit]

Yes, as the S2F model predicted two scenarios:

1. If we follow the 2013 bull run = $288,000
2. if we follow the 2017 bull run = $100,000

Also take note that during the 2017 we have like 9 corrections that year. And we have like 2 already, last month and recently a 33% dip from $57k down to $45k.

[thecodebear]

Yes, as the S2F model predicted two scenarios:

1. If we follow the 2013 bull run = $288,000
2. if we follow the 2017 bull run = $100,000

Also take note that during the 2017 we have like 9 corrections that year. And we have like 2 already, last month and recently a 33% dip from $57k down to $45k.

I think you meant 23%

[thecodebear]

Green line is 2 year moving average, red line is 2 year moving average x 5.

This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run, it would mean right now we could be in July-September 2017 repeat, meaning huge move on the upside in the next few months?

Also, this chart is very interesting because it indicates once we overtake the red line, the rise in price is very sudden and very sharp and a big crash follows after that. And bear in mind that those 2 lines always go up so the red line could very well be around 80k once we go above it. So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.

We'll have to wait and see, but I don't think this is like the second correction from 2017. We JUST got out of a correction - I don't see this being another several week 30%+ correction. More likely just finding some support after going up too fast immediately after getting out of the last correction thanks to the Tesla buy. It's a correction sure, but not a "oh god is bull run over" type of correction like you saw with all the FUD a month ago. Think this will be more like spend a week or two finding solid support around $50k and then onward to $70k or so before the second big correction of the year later on in April. This was only 23 or 24% drop from the top and seems very unlikely again to get anywhere near that $44k bottom it hit a couple days ago. Found base support at $44k, now building support around $48k-$50k. Likely back to $55k next week.

[adaseb]

Remember when BTC broke the $14K resistance from 2019, people wanted to buy the dip at $14K it never happened.
Remember when BTC broke the $20K resistance from the old ATH, people wanted to buy that dip at $20K and it never happened.
Now $42K is most likely not going to be any different. Most likely if we drop again, we will bottom out at $43K or so and keep going up.

Longing at $42K would just be too easy. Way too many technical traders out there. Everybody wants to buy at the old ATH from Jan 2021. Hence most likely it will never reach $42K, if it does, then it will probably dip even more. And then you should becareful because maybe $58K was the top.

[pooya87]

This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run
So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.

In 2017 bull run price went from previous ATL ($150) all the way to $20,000 which is 13,233%
If this is anything like 2017 then price has to go from previous ATL ($3200) up 13,233% and reach $426,656 then be considered a bubble.
In other words $150k-$200k is like $6800-$7000 was in 2017.

All of that is assuming this cycle is the same as previous one but I believe that each cycle the size grows. Evidence is that 2017 cycle was bigger than the 2013 cycle which was bigger than the 2010 cycle. So reaching $400k may not even be the bubble territory this time. I always say $400k to $500k but bubble may actually form around $700k or more.

[3meek]

I am not sure that this correction will continue... Just as I'm not sure about the s2f model... In my opinion, if we have consolidated above 50k, then we will continue to grow...

[GreatArkansas]

$40,000 - $42,000 if our next stop will be around $100,000. Since OP is using the 2017 top or price action, which seems also valid for me.

I agree on with the chart too, especially lately Bitcoin can't even manage to stay above $50,000 which the $40,000 level is really near and very possible. Even $30,000 is possible this time.

But if we will follow the chart, so even we will buy now and dump below $40,000 we will still have no loss if the top will be around $100,000.

[pooya87]

lately Bitcoin can't even manage to stay above $50,000 which the $40,000 level is really near and very possible. Even $30,000 is possible this time.

Your perspective is flawed because you are only looking at the drop not the reason for it and certainly not the bigger picture. You can literary say the same thing for every other price level for the past 3 years and state that "bitcoin can't even manage to stay above $4000, $6000, $10k, ..." all the way to the recent couple of months with $20k, $30k, $40k,  and finally what you said about $50k.

Each of these levels were reached in the same manner, we go above it then there is a correction for about a week before price goes back up to set a new record.
Just because a correction occurred during any of these steps it didn't mean price should continue going down and reach a much lower price like $30k for no reason!