Will the Lightning Network replace on-chain transactions sometime in the future?

[masterzino]

I'm aware that the Lightning Network's mainstream adoption is still low these days. But as on-chain fees increase towards new heights, people will look for other options. They'd either choose an altcoin, or the Lightning Network in order to avoid high fees and slow transaction confirmation times.

If adoption for the Lightning Network goes all the way to the moon, do you think there's a possibility it could replace on-chain transactions? Of course, that is excluding on-chain transactions to open/close a channel on the Lightning Network. I think that miners will be doomed if something like this happens.

What are thoughts?

I don't think that Lightning Network will ever get mainstream adoption because people see Bitcoin as an asset to store value.

On the other hand, due to the cosmic fees and DeFi, L2 on Ethereum could be adopted very soon as people are sick of paying $50 for a simple transfer.

[buwaytress]

Imagine what'll happen once the block reward goes to zero.

Think this is on the mind of developers for sure, but not for at least two more halvings so that gives them and miners 8 years or so to figure things out, meanwhile, privacy is the priority and that's already en route with new clients signalling. Also that's super conservative, because even at 0.75 per block it's still 108 new Bitcoins a day for another 4 years... then 54 a day for the next.

And even if it's just over 1 new Bitcoin every hour 20 years from now, presumably fees and price would be something of a simple mathematical equation of profit.

I realise I'm waffling, I think about it a lot too. I'll be hopefully very retired by then though, telling people war tales of 2017.

[CarnagexD]

Definitely, As you have said, people will put up with either choosing a new altcoin or the lightning network, and since most altcoins in the market aren't that great as a leeway as they were before, the Lightning Network seems to be the most plausible answer to our problems with high transaction fees in the future. Honestly I'm puzzled why not everyone is using it.

[Abiky]

I don't think that Lightning Network will ever get mainstream adoption because people see Bitcoin as an asset to store value.

Exactly. Not only that, but the Lightning Network's complexity makes people look elsewhere. They're better off using an altcoin like Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash, than using the Lightning Network for cheap, instant transfers. We could say that the LN is only an experiment that's very unlikely to be used seriously in the mainstream world. Unless developers make the LN easier to use, and ramp up marketing/promotion efforts, I don't see it going anywhere. It'll be another story if the LN becomes extremely popular in the mainstream world. If this happens, I'm afraid the LN could replace on-chain transactions as people will use it more than the main Bitcoin blockchain itself. The only exception would be on-chain transactions related to opening/closing channels on the off-chain scaling solution. Who knows if miner's profits are reduced in the long run because of minimal on-chain activity?

Nonetheless, crypto behaves in strange and bizarre ways. As long as the LN has active development and innovation, there's hope it could reach widespread adoption in the future. There will be no harm done to Bitcoin if the off-chain scaling solution dies in the long run. As I've said before, people could switch to another coin if they feel uncomfortable with Bitcoin's high fees and slow transaction confirmation times. Remember, scaling is something optional for Bitcoin to reach a wider audience. Decentralization is all that matters in order to provide an alternative to the current financial system. Take that away from Bitcoin and you get nothing more than a "glorified banking system". Just my thoughts

[dothebeats]

Lightning Network will only ever see utility on times of high-volume transactions on the network. It will not get much of its sought-after mainstream adoption due to its added complication on the transaction process. Either way, I'm pretty sure LN will have its official uses side-by-side with the network, and I'm just not seeing it replacing the network as a whole.

[Abiky]

Lightning Network will only ever see utility on times of high-volume transactions on the network. It will not get much of its sought-after mainstream adoption due to its added complication on the transaction process. Either way, I'm pretty sure LN will have its official uses side-by-side with the network, and I'm just not seeing it replacing the network as a whole.

It's the complexity of LN transactions, which stifles the network's growth in the mainstream world. The Lightning Network won't be able to replace on-chain transactions if the average person doesn't know how to use it. Without user friendliness, the Lightning Network will only remain as an alternative than a replacement of on-chain transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. At least, people have the choice to skip high fees and slow transaction confirmation times. They can either use the LN or an altcoin of their preference. What matters is that Bitcoin remains decentralized in order to maintain censorship-resistance. Unlike cryptocurrencies with on-chain scalability (like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV), Bitcoin's path to scalability is much safer as everything happens on a separate layer. If the LN fails, Bitcoin will continue to operate as usual.

Nonetheless, no one can predict the future. So far, the LN has been doing well in terms of active development and innovation. As long as it's maintained by the community, it will be able to stand the test of time. For what I know, the LN is still an experiment. Whenever it'll be a success or a failure in the long run, it's yet to be seen. With so many other blockchain networks available on the market, there might be no reason to use the LN in order to enjoy instant transactions and low fees. Just my thoughts

[franky1]

LN is not unique to bitcoin.
LN is multicurrency

you lock up your 1oz gold($1.7k). you play with banknotes($1.7k). close account collect 65oz silver($1.7k)
only paying $5 in $0.05 out
you vault your 0.03BTC($1.7k). you play with btcmillisat htlcs. you atomic swap for ltcmillisats. you exit paying $0.05 for 8.19ltc($1.7k)

[Abiky]

LN is not unique to bitcoin.
LN is multicurrency

you lock up your 1oz gold($1.7k). you play with banknotes($1.7k). close account collect 65oz silver($1.7k)
only paying $5 in $0.05 out
you vault your 0.03BTC($1.7k). you play with btcmillisat htlcs. you atomic swap for ltcmillisats. you exit paying $0.05 for 8.19ltc($1.7k)

Very interesting observation. How didn't I've thought of that sooner? It seems to me that the LN won't be able to replace on-chain transactions anytime soon. Being useful for multiple cryptocurrencies, I'd say that the LN is well-suited as an alternative than a replacement of an specific cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin). One way or another, the LN is heavily-dependent on the underlying Blockchain itself for opening/closing channels. Miners won't have nothing to lose in the long run, even with the Lightning Network in play. Who knows what the future of Bitcoin will look like after the LN becomes extremely popular worldwide?

Nonetheless, time will tell us whenever the Lightning Network will become a success or a failed experiment. With so many other cryptocurrencies on the market with greater performance than Bitcoin, people won't have a reason to use the LN in the first place. They could simply use an altcoin like BCH, BSV, or even LTC to enjoy low fees and fast transaction confirmation times. The off-chain scaling solution for BTC will only become a "niche", used by a very small minority in the crypto/Blockchain space. Considering that the LN is not easy to use, mainstream adoption will be at its lowest. Developers are going to have to make the LN more user-friendly, to help solve this problem. Just my thoughts