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Author Topic: What's your Bitcoin balance worth in derivatives?  (Read 1172 times)
miscreanity
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November 29, 2011, 06:05:01 AM
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For amusement in a hypothetical situation, let's say the global outstanding derivatives balance has been supplanted by the Bitcoin system. Now, instead of ~USD$700 TRILLION in global derivatives, the global financial system consists of 21mm Bitcoins, assuming every Satoshi has been mined out to the 8th digit. Using some simple math, we can figure out how much we'd each be worth under this new one-world currency.

If we take 1 current block at 50 BTC and calculate the total share of the entire Bitcoin system, we get:

50 / 21,000,000 = 0.000002381

Now, we simply figure out how much that is in today's dollars:

700,000,000,000,000 * 0.000002381 = 1,666,666,666.67

That's not bad at all, a cool USD$1.66 BILLION. See? There's nothing wrong with being an early adopter. Anyone who wants to cry about it can go share their Bitcoins with everyone else.

Me? I'm going to go build a party spaceship.
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Phinnaeus Gage
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November 29, 2011, 07:04:54 AM
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For amusement in a hypothetical situation, let's say the global outstanding derivatives balance has been supplanted by the Bitcoin system. Now, instead of ~USD$700 TRILLION in global derivatives, the global financial system consists of 21mm Bitcoins, assuming every Satoshi has been mined out to the 8th digit. Using some simple math, we can figure out how much we'd each be worth under this new one-world currency.

If we take 1 current block at 50 BTC and calculate the total share of the entire Bitcoin system, we get:

50 / 21,000,000 = 0.000002381

Now, we simply figure out how much that is in today's dollars:

700,000,000,000,000 * 0.000002381 = 1,666,666,666.67

That's not bad at all, a cool USD$1.66 BILLION. See? There's nothing wrong with being an early adopter. Anyone who wants to cry about it can go share their Bitcoins with everyone else.

Me? I'm going to go build a party spaceship.

...and pick up hitchhikers across the galaxy?


MaxSan
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November 29, 2011, 05:14:12 PM
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Well I guess you can have your party ship built on my new planet il be buying with my new found wealth Wink
proudhon
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November 29, 2011, 05:49:40 PM
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Good grief, this stuff again?  Sorry folks, it's not going to happen.  You'll be lucky to get anything for your bitcoins 5 years from now.
Litt
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November 29, 2011, 10:43:33 PM
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Good grief, this stuff again?  Sorry folks, it's not going to happen.  You'll be lucky to get anything for your bitcoins 5 years from now.

Looks like he's got some bids up this time.
adamstgBit
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November 29, 2011, 10:57:51 PM
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Good grief, this stuff again?  Sorry folks, it's not going to happen.  You'll be lucky to get anything for your bitcoins 5 years from now.

well if it would happen.. most likely all the worlds money wouldn't be bitcoin only, there would a a couple forks

and you have to take into account the worlds money is ever growing. and its growing exponentially. 700,000,000,000,000 is not the right number 700,000,000,000,000,000 is more like it  Shocked


phillipsjk
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November 30, 2011, 01:52:38 AM
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That's not bad at all, a cool USD$1.66 BILLION. See? There's nothing wrong with being an early adopter. Anyone who wants to cry about it can go share their Bitcoins with everyone else.

Me? I'm going to go build a party spaceship.

As I said in my first post on these forums: won't happen because computers are not secure enough. Do you really think the Microsofts, Sony's, Intel's, Foxcom's, Realtek's of the world will be able to resist the urge to steal $ Billions from the early-adopters?

As for your spaceship idea, I also point out in my first post that the bitcoin protocol appears to be very latency-sensitive, though for a few billion, you may not be leaving Earth orbit anyway.

James' OpenPGP public key fingerprint: EB14 9E5B F80C 1F2D 3EBE  0A2F B3DE 81FF 7B9D 5160
miscreanity
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November 30, 2011, 04:57:46 AM
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For amusement in a hypothetical situation

I'll be sure to add this for clarification next time:

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

For a somewhat less whimsical thought-experiment, we could use gold. Assume approximately 4.2 billion troy ounces total available for ownership and you have 10 t ozs ($17,000 @ $1,700/oz):

10 / 4,200,000,000 = 0.000000002

700,000,000,000,000 * 0.000000002 = $1,400,000

Or silver, assuming about 1 billion troy ounces available for investor possession and holding about the same current value as the gold example, so 500 t ozs ($17,000 @ $34/oz):

500 / 1,000,000,000 = 0.0000005

700,000,000,000,000 * 0.0000005 = $350,000,000

So you say there's twice as much wealth floating around in derivatives? Fair enough, divide the results by half. That's still more than most people earn in their entire lifetimes.

What was that? The people with humor-deficiencies are screaming that there won't be 100% backing? Alright, let's go with a mere 5% instead. Don't get all uppity about the dollar-denominated values: that squiggly line means 'approximately', as in 'not exact'. Also, certain assets will gain in dollar-denominated value faster than the monetary base is increased, so the extra zeros in derivatives will start to get knocked off (e.g. gold up 10x while derivatives expand by 2x, all in USD).

Gold (10oz @ ~$1,700) @ 5%: $70,000

Silver (500oz @ ~$33) @ 5%: $17,500,000

Bitcoin (50 @ ~$3) @ 5%: ~$83,000,000

I wonder which stores of wealth will constitute the other 85%? Probably government bonds, since everyone knows those are rock solid...

Let this be a reminder that math is fun.

...and pick up hitchhikers across the galaxy?

Yes, especially from planets that are about to be blown up. Wink

Well I guess you can have your party ship built on my new planet il be buying with my new found wealth Wink

I'll visit! Cheesy
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