Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash

[Bossian]

Pi cycle top indicator has predicted the previous tops with good accuracy. April 2013 was a bit messed up but December 2013 and December 2017 looked crazy accurate. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/





Orange line is 111 day moving average (111DMA), green line is a multiple of 350 day moving average (350DMA x 2).

When both lines crossed in the past, it showed we reached the top or close to it.

Look where we are in March 2021 both lines look close, but let's zoom in




Both lines are still quite far from crossing, I find it very interesting to compare with September - December 2017:




You can see both lines were getting close in that period but this is the moment Bitcoin skyrocketted. Also be very careful, this is when it's time to sell, or at least do not buy when this happens. If we follow the same patterns as 2017 we are 2 or 3 months away from the top of the bubble.


This indicator is also available on TradingView. 

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[janggernaut]

Could you make a prediction on what price the lines will crossed? So we can take a hint on what price it will be as new ATH (if it reached and history repeat)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good to see you active Bossian, hope you’re well. I much prefer to see a bullish Bossian
What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that

[Bossian]

Could you make a prediction on what price the lines will crossed? So we can take a hint on what price it will be as new ATH (if it reached and history repeat)

Difficult to make a prediction but I will update when we are close enough.

Good to see you active Bossian, hope you’re well. I much prefer to see a bullish Bossian
What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that

Good to see you no idea to be honest, but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k.



As usual, not financial advice only my opinion!

[janggernaut]

Bitcoin to $150,000 is likely won't be happen. If bitcoin reach $150,000 it's mean Bitcoin's marketcap is around $2.8 Trillion, beat Apple with marketcap at $2.1 Trillion right now.

Dunno, but $150,000 is too optimism for me.

[Yaunfitda]

Bitcoin to $150,000 is likely won't be happen. If bitcoin reach $150,000 it's mean Bitcoin's marketcap is around $2.8 Trillion, beat Apple with marketcap at $2.1 Trillion right now.

Dunno, but $150,000 is too optimism for me.

$150k-$200 might be out of reach for now, but I think a 6 digit figure will likely happen this year.
If we follow that 2017 pattern, we can clearly see that it will top around that price or at least $100k. But there could be a repeat of the 2013, which in my estimate will be $200k or even more, (now I don't know what's you gonna call that.) 

In any case, either of the scenario could really be new levels for all of us, uncharted territory that in the first 10 years of bitcoin, we will never dream of.

[pooya87]

but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k.

Curious statement.
Previous bubble went from $1200 ATH to $20000 ATH which is about 16x rise. From $20k ATH to $150k-$200k ATH is 7.5-10x rise.
The previous bubble also went from $150 bottom to $20000 which is 133x rise. This time from $3200 to $150k-$200k is 46x-62x.

So I guess the strange part is why do you think this "bubble" is going to significantly shrink while the previous 4 cycles each grew in size significantly?

[mk4]

Bitcoin to $150,000 is likely won't be happen. If bitcoin reach $150,000 it's mean Bitcoin's marketcap is around $2.8 Trillion, beat Apple with marketcap at $2.1 Trillion right now.

Dunno, but $150,000 is too optimism for me.

$150,000 isn't even that optimistic lol; we're pretty much just approximately 3x from current prices. And if the bull run continues throughout the year, I wouldn't even be surprised if we touch a price higher than that.

As for Apple, I don't even know why you're comparing a no-borders store of value like bitcoin to Apple, an American business. You're slightly better off comparing bitcoin with the S&P500, or far better yet, gold.

[thecodebear]

$150k is reasonable target for this year.

I could see something like to $80k+ in March/April
Down to $60k in April/May
Up to $105k in June/July (euphoria for breaking $100k but sellers at $100k overcome and push price down, probably plenty of institutions take profits too)
Down to $70k July/August
Up to year peak of $150k in October.

That or something like that seems pretty reasonable for this year.

[slaman29]

Two or three months from the top means max June, which means this rally would only last for 6 months (from old 2017 ATH to new ATH). Doesn't really feel like good news if we see that in the past, the bubble lasted a lot longer (almost 1 year in 2017 from old ATH to 20k).

But maybe this also means less longer bear periods?

[Fundamentals Of]

Could you make a prediction on what price the lines will crossed? So we can take a hint on what price it will be as new ATH (if it reached and history repeat)

Difficult to make a prediction but I will update when we are close enough.

Good to see you active Bossian, hope you’re well. I much prefer to see a bullish Bossian
What kind of price range do you predict for the top of this cycle? The top coming in 2-3 months would be great. I can definitely live with that

Good to see you no idea to be honest, but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k.

Such very high figures. But you're the one with a more brilliant analysis, or at least it appears so to me, so I guess I will be personally withholding any decision to sell at $60,000 or even at $80,000 to wait for that top. Even $150,000 would be good. Or if we fall short of that range, we will certainly cross the 6-digit threshold. See you all there.

[michellee]

Such very high figures. But you're the one with a more brilliant analysis, or at least it appears so to me, so I guess I will be personally withholding any decision to sell at $60,000 or even at $80,000 to wait for that top. Even $150,000 would be good. Or if we fall short of that range, we will certainly cross the 6-digit threshold. See you all there.

Then you should sell some portion of bitcoin at those range price and sell it at once at $150,000. After that, the price will make a correction and I guess the drops will coming at that time, so prepare yourself for that moment. It seems the price gets the real rally this time. As I see in Binance, the price breaks $52k and still increases. I wonder how high bitcoin price will rise this time as bitcoin price already at a lower price for a weeks or so. But this time, it is exciting to see bitcoin prices finally can increase higher again.

[Fundamentals Of]

Such very high figures. But you're the one with a more brilliant analysis, or at least it appears so to me, so I guess I will be personally withholding any decision to sell at $60,000 or even at $80,000 to wait for that top. Even $150,000 would be good. Or if we fall short of that range, we will certainly cross the 6-digit threshold. See you all there.

Then you should sell some portion of bitcoin at those range price and sell it at once at $150,000. After that, the price will make a correction and I guess the drops will coming at that time, so prepare yourself for that moment. It seems the price gets the real rally this time. As I see in Binance, the price breaks $52k and still increases. I wonder how high bitcoin price will rise this time as bitcoin price already at a lower price for a weeks or so. But this time, it is exciting to see bitcoin prices finally can increase higher again.

I might as well put off selling until the price breaks $100,000. Or to avoid a foreseeable heavy sell wall at that price I might find it good enough to sell at $99,999. $100,000 might be a hard resistance.

$60,000- $80,000 might already be the buy back range during the deep correction following the $150,000 - $200,000 top if ever such prediction will indeed come to reality.

[michellee]

Such very high figures. But you're the one with a more brilliant analysis, or at least it appears so to me, so I guess I will be personally withholding any decision to sell at $60,000 or even at $80,000 to wait for that top. Even $150,000 would be good. Or if we fall short of that range, we will certainly cross the 6-digit threshold. See you all there.

Then you should sell some portion of bitcoin at those range price and sell it at once at $150,000. After that, the price will make a correction and I guess the drops will coming at that time, so prepare yourself for that moment. It seems the price gets the real rally this time. As I see in Binance, the price breaks $52k and still increases. I wonder how high bitcoin price will rise this time as bitcoin price already at a lower price for a weeks or so. But this time, it is exciting to see bitcoin prices finally can increase higher again.

I might as well put off selling until the price breaks $100,000. Or to avoid a foreseeable heavy sell wall at that price I might find it good enough to sell at $99,999. $100,000 might be a hard resistance.

$60,000- $80,000 might already be the buy back range during the deep correction following the $150,000 - $200,000 top if ever such prediction will indeed come to reality.

Selling on your target price will be acceptable as it might need to wait for some time for the price to reach $100,000. But it will no problem if you still place an order sell at $100,000 because the price can hit that price anytime soon. But before we can see bitcoin price reach that price, we should have many bitcoin to have a big profit if we sell at that high price.

If the price hit $100,000, then $60,000-$80,000 can be the dip for the correction, so if that is really happening in the next months, you need to prepare a lot of money to buy back bitcoin. Otherwise, you can split your money to buy in many ranges of the prices.

[Zicadis]

The thing is, we humans are defined to see patterns, and sometimes we create them where we want to see them, not doubting your prediction at all, but comparing this market with the 2017 might be an error, things can take a huge turn (even for the better) since we are seeing actions without precedents such as big companies joining in, a bigger afluence of people getting aknowledgable about bitcoin, and what 2017 did to the world was showing that going full ape into any bitcoin related business would be a mistake because most would turn on to be a scam, so people are more concerned about understanding it before buying whatever it is, which is the best outcome we could ask. In my opinion we will never see bitcoin going as down as it once was, perhaps half of what it is now would be the max, but I feel there is more trust in this ecossystem as the days go by. I believe we are far more advanced in a worldwide adoption. I won't say I'm completely bullish in the current market but I'm not as concerned as I once was. 100k is realistically possible, but I'm hoping an armageddon won't happen any time soon, if ever.

[SquallLeonhart]

In my opinion we will never see bitcoin going as down as it once was, perhaps half of what it is now would be the max, but I feel there is more trust in this ecossystem as the days go by. I believe we are far more advanced in a worldwide adoption. I won't say I'm completely bullish in the current market but I'm not as concerned as I once was. 100k is realistically possible, but I'm hoping an armageddon won't happen any time soon, if ever.

That is true, if I want to I can make sure to find something that would show price going over 100k and I can find something that shows how it is going under 10k as well, they are both available depending on how you want to check it, it is not that difficult neither it is a very easy choice. It is something that would be simple but unfortunately people do not realize that, they check a chart and they decide that they are the only right one and people who do the other way are the wrong ones and others will be "obviously" wrong and they will be right.

In reality you could make any chart you want AND none would mean anything if something unexpected happens. Which is why I never rely on anything like this, sure I check TA but I never really see that as the only thing that I should base my trading on, it is just something that could supplement it and that's it, can never be the main reason.

[Kittygalore]

Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason

The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

[Wilhelm]

Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason

The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

You sound like the people saying the same about $10k. We nearly doubled it with the FOMO.
100K WILL GET HIT.

I agree $100k is where you should think about taking profits before the new bear season.
It will ATH anywhere from $101k to $300k...

[livingfree]

but looking at previous bubble, probably 150k-200k.

I like seeing such bullish predictions with some explanations why it's possible to happen. <3

The price of 100k$ was seems to be high.

When bitcoin hits $3k. People have also said that $15k-$20k seems to be high at that current state.

[ethereumhunter]

Maybe the price will hit $100k this year, but with more volatility and unpredicted movements. But I am waiting for the high price, and I am sure many of us will have the same reason

The next bitcoin movement will not be the same as 2017 because many things already change, including support from the big company and more new people who invest in bitcoin. But the dump can be any price, and it can get down as lower as before.

If it ever hits 100k USD this year, I believe that volatility would be checked and I don't think that it will be the least of our worries, what I worry is that when the price reach that point, a sudden downturn will happen and I don't mean just any downturn but a big one because a lot will not be able to hold on any longer and they see 100k USD as a good price to get out of the market and wait for it to go down. It is already evident that this year's run is not the same as 2017 the moment that bitcoin was still going strong despite reaching the end of the 3rd week of January.

That will make the correction have big drops happen to the market, and I am really worried if that is happening because that can make many people panic. They will sell their bitcoin fast without thinking that is just a correction, and if that so, the price will go down fast to the lowest price. But we still need time to hit $100k, so we better prepare ourselves by having many bitcoins to sell at the highest price. And if the price drops too deep, we can have the chance to buy back Bitcoin at that price, and I am sure that the bitcoin that we buy will be bigger than before.