Nagle's Favorite Chart

[BTCurious]

It is not clear how it will play out, but as I have been saying new lows will be set, and each week's highs will again fail to meet the last week's.

This hasn't been true for over a month now.

[cbeast]

People do realize that the term bubble is just a hypothesis, right? I mean, we're not talking about terms in physics. It's a hypothesis based on observation of human behavior. Bubbles and waves form due to (mostly) predictable factors. I think it's safe to say that technology developments will lead to usefulness and growth in value of bitcoin. That really can't be said about gold and silver. So why the speculation on Bitcoin, when it is a sure thing? Isn't it better to spend time, money, and effort developing the technology? The bubbles and waves are simply not going to be the same in Bitcoin as in other speculative investments that only have scarcity going for them.

[ElectricMucus]

Bitcoin is a brand of a particular technology.
Do the 'Math'...

[cbeast]

Bitcoin is a brand of a particular technology.
Do the 'Math'...

Correct. What's your point?

[ElectricMucus]

Bitcoin is a brand of a particular technology.
Do the 'Math'...

Correct. What's your point?

Bitcoin will have sentimental value down the road, but it will not reach critical mass. Just like Sinclair, Commodore, Amiga, MSX... etc

[cbeast]

Bitcoin is a brand of a particular technology.
Do the 'Math'...

Correct. What's your point?

Bitcoin will have sentimental value down the road, but it will not reach critical mass. Just like Sinclair, Commodore, Amiga, MSX... etc

Those examples were not insignificant, but I still don't follow. Do you not see the practical and unique value in Bitcoin? Or are you saying that entropy will someday make everything just a waste of time?

[BadBear]

From his examples I'm guessing he means it's cool and useful, but likely won't see widespread adoption.  I know most here would like to see countries using it and the banks burn, but it's probably not gonna happen.  Most people are fine with the status quo, and hate change/things they don't understand. 
  

[markm]

I get the impression we are intended to deduce that even if iCoin, gCoin, PepsiCoin and so on are created identical to Bitcoin in all things other than who signed their genesis block and when, they will take off better than Bitcoin if only because they are more-famous brands than the bitcoin brand.

-MarkM-

[BadBear]

Yes any major player who is going to adopt it is likely to make their own.  With "minor" changes of course. 

[cbeast]

I get the impression we are intended to deduce that even if iCoin, gCoin, PepsiCoin and so on are created identical to Bitcoin in all things other than who signed their genesis block and when, they will take off better than Bitcoin if only because they are more-famous brands than the bitcoin brand.

-MarkM-

Yet people still drink Coke even if it fails the taste test.

[ElectricMucus]

I don't think there will be a bunch of different blockchain based currencies in the long road, mid term, yes there could be successful derivatives but that's not something I think will be something sustainable.

I see bitcoin a pioneer project, and after enough derivatives offer significant improvements a standardization will merge the impovements back together creating something which can eventually become the new system.
Most of these issues are yet to become apparent but some of them have already been formulated.

Going into them would derail the discussion.

[Technomage]

I see a number of possibilities for the future, but the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin is here to stay. It makes no sense for any big player to make their own decentralized currency and then market it over Bitcoin, because there is nothing to gain. And if there is something to gain, then there is something wrong, and it won't work. What we will see is competing cryptocurrencies, this is already happening. But the thing is, Bitcoin is 100 times bigger than the next biggest fork and I see this gap getting bigger next year, not smaller.

Unless the alternatives can come up with something that really makes Bitcoin useless, I can see no way that they can overtake Bitcoin from a marketing perspective. I don't believe any claims that Bitcoin has fundamental flaws, it doesn't. From a security perspective, the network will get ever more secure the bigger Bitcoin gets and it's already very secure.

As far as scaling the system for widespread use, no problem there either. Problems related to large blockchain and bandwidth/cpu requirements are a non-issue. That's already been solved with clients that have a server protocol for handling the transactions. The private key is stored with the client to have the same security features as a regular client but it has none of the bandwidth/cpu requirements of a regular client. On top of this, the developers of the official client have stated that this issue is one of their priorities.

I am a bit concerned that so many are still happy to mine in super massive pools such as Deepbit, the ddos attacks should have taught us something. This is a security concern for the network as long as the mining is as centralized as it is. Everyone should think about this and consider changing to one of the smaller pools so we have less centralization.

[ineededausername]

REAL REVERSAL GUYS BUY BUY BUY

IF YOU BUY THIS SHIT YOU WILL BECOME A MILLIONAIRE AND EVERYTHING WILL BE NICE AND RAINBOWS WILL POP UP AND YOU WILL BUY A MANSION AND A JET WITH THE PROFITS SO BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY

[dree12]

I wake up and see nobody has detected an inch of sarcasm :/. I hate to frame people, but this is what I meant...

Mt. Gox, last 4 months. Again a gradual slow slide.
As usual, we have a gradual slow slide, characteristic of a classic bubble. We are now in the endgame. It is not clear how it will play out, but as I have been saying new lows will be set, and each week's highs will again fail to meet the last week's.

As I've been saying, if you aren't out yet, get out now. These exchanges will soon turn out scams as the value continues to drop. Bitcoin is too subordinate to ever meet its original purpose.

[ineededausername]

Price is going to go DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWN soon.
or it's a real reversal?

edit: REAL REVERSAL GUYS BUY BUY BUY

IF YOU BUY THIS SHIT YOU WILL BECOME A MILLIONAIRE AND EVERYTHING WILL BE NICE AND RAINBOWS WILL POP UP AND YOU WILL BUY A MANSION AND A JET WITH THE PROFITS

Wonder what Nagle's thinking, now that his nice bearish brown line is going up 

[PatrickHarnett]

What he's thinking is "I am right, it will eventually crash again, and I can post a /I told you so/ later".