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Author Topic: 21 million bitcoins is the same as 21 trillion bitcoins (for us now)  (Read 336 times)
anticonformist (OP)
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March 08, 2021, 01:36:25 PM
 #1

So BTC will continue to be mined until about 2140, when all 21 million are finished. But imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and it finished in say the year 9140, it actually wouldn't make any difference to us than 21 million, because the inflation rate would still be the same. I think the current bitcoin inflation rate is 1.3 percent or whatever. So just imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and 18,648,168 BTC were currently in circulation, do you think people would still say you know there will only ever be 21 trillion bitcoins.... i dont think so. But it would be the same as saying there's only 21 million. Maybe in the year 2130 people can say that when there's only 10 years left but for us who are alive now, why should million or trillion matter. Inflation rate and circulating supply would still be the same.... any thoughts?
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March 08, 2021, 01:45:22 PM
 #2

So BTC will continue to be mined until about 2140, when all 21 million are finished. But imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and it finished in say the year 9140, it actually wouldn't make any difference to us than 21 million, because the inflation rate would still be the same. I think the current bitcoin inflation rate is 1.3 percent or whatever. So just imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and 18,648,168 BTC were currently in circulation, do you think people would still say you know there will only ever be 21 trillion bitcoins.... i dont think so. But it would be the same as saying there's only 21 million. Maybe in the year 2130 people can say that when there's only 10 years left but for us who are alive now, why should million or trillion matter. Inflation rate and circulating supply would still be the same.... any thoughts?


The idea of the 21 million limited number of bitcoins  is important to keep the system deflationary.

The more bitcoins generated, the higher is the incentive for miners. By 2140 miners won't need incentive anymore, probably because there will be too many transactions and fees will the enough incentive to miners


Changing 21 million to 21 trillion would change the economic balance between transactions/miners/users/deflation model.

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March 08, 2021, 01:54:20 PM
Last edit: March 08, 2021, 02:17:53 PM by aoluain
 #3

and my question is, What would be the point?

if as you state it would amount to being the same why prolong it to 9140?

The OP must have a motive for this idea.

R


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March 08, 2021, 02:02:43 PM
 #4

Im just addressing the "scarcity" point people always make. Because if it was capped at 21 trillion and was still being mined at the same rate, 21 million wouldn't make it any scarcer.

btw of course i love BTC and the current inflation rate is working well, i believe. Just making a point to hear what others think.
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March 08, 2021, 02:10:28 PM
 #5

So BTC will continue to be mined until about 2140, when all 21 million are finished.

I understand the obsession of beginners and those who think they are late with investing in BTC with max supply, but although it is true that the last coin will be mined around the year 2140, in less than 10 years the percentage of mined coins will reach 99%, is that 1% or 210 000 BTC really that important?

But imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and it finished in say the year 9140, it actually wouldn't make any difference to us than 21 million, because the inflation rate would still be the same.

I don't want to imagine what it would be like if Satoshi were an idiot who would create something that has a max supply of 21 trillion - do you even know the difference between a billion and a trillion? If this idea of yours had been implemented 12 years ago, Bitcoin would be worthless today and no one would mention it, because with so big max supply it would be worthless - even less valuable than Doge, which has a circulation supply of as much as 128 billion with unlimited max supply.

Inflation rate and circulating supply would still be the same.... any thoughts?

There are more than 100 forks of BTC, some really have huge max supply - why don't you try to put your idea into action so in 10 years you can see if you're right? Or maybe it is better to leave everything as Satoshi originally envisioned Wink

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March 08, 2021, 03:07:20 PM
 #6

Im just addressing the "scarcity" point people always make. Because if it was capped at 21 trillion and was still being mined at the same rate, 21 million wouldn't make it any scarcer.

btw of course i love BTC and the current inflation rate is working well, i believe. Just making a point to hear what others think.

If the scarcity rate would remain at the same there really would be no benefit.
We are all familiar with how it works now, the only people critising the 21,000,000
supply are the non believers who count Bitcoin in Satoshi's and state Bitcoin isnt
scarce because its divisible by 8.

R


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March 08, 2021, 03:21:03 PM
 #7

21 million and 21 trillion are different in number and left years. A little bit more than one century is long enough. It is around a lifespan of one people. In fact, most of use have our lifespans are less than 100 years.

Scarcity is not truly scarcity if you are talking about the thousands or millions of years. Do you think water is scarce as it will be evaporated all in next 1 millions of years? Even it is true, no one will care about it.

Satoshi is genius in my opinion to choose that year 2140, almost 140 years from the release of Bitcoin Genesis block.

The bullish case for bitcoin
I took one interesting point from this article. We have been in the middle of 20-years period. In earlier years of bitcoin, people were fear of the failure, death of bitcoin but now do you really believe that bitcoin will be dead some days? The trust has been increasing.
Quote
If Bitcoin exists for 20 years, there will be near-universal confidence that it will be available forever, much as people believe the Internet is a permanent feature of the modern world.

Additionally, if you combine it with the Bitcoin inflation - Time chart, 20 years from 2009 to 2029 is important. That curve will go into a nearly flat area after 2029. News and people will have more time to talk about scarcity of bitcoin.

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March 08, 2021, 04:15:46 PM
 #8

So BTC will continue to be mined until about 2140, when all 21 million are finished. But imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and it finished in say the year 9140, it actually wouldn't make any difference to us than 21 million, because the inflation rate would still be the same. I think the current bitcoin inflation rate is 1.3 percent or whatever. So just imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and 18,648,168 BTC were currently in circulation, do you think people would still say you know there will only ever be 21 trillion bitcoins.... i dont think so. But it would be the same as saying there's only 21 million. Maybe in the year 2130 people can say that when there's only 10 years left but for us who are alive now, why should million or trillion matter. Inflation rate and circulating supply would still be the same.... any thoughts?

Understand it from a simple supply perspective. When some asset has unlimited or huge amount of supply, the price of that aseet usually stays lower. So if bitcoin's supply is increased to 21 trillion, it's price will come down to accommodate the increase in supply. It is called scarcity model.

The best real world example is the limited edition cars. If Bugatti launches a limited edition car with only 10 in existence, then it's price will be much higher than a normal Bugatti car. Think bitcoin as a limited edition with fixed number of supply!

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March 08, 2021, 04:30:49 PM
 #9

you first have to understand the importance of fixing a coin supply at a particular amount as well as all the features that goes along with it. it definetly wont be the same. if supply was more than this, pricing will be different as well as many things. there is no point waiting for so long as 9140. its of no use because everyone wont have the same opportunity.
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March 08, 2021, 04:53:47 PM
 #10

21 million for bitcoin
21 million for us
These are two different issues, but most people is paying attention to the price of Bitcoin,which is very sad.

For us,Bitcoin is increasing every day of our life. This is correct,But if growth is lower than people's needs, it is actually scarce.
This is happening now, or not happening, the performance of this uncertainty is the price.
For us, the difference between 21 million bitcoins or 21 trillion bitcoins is our imagination.

For bitcoin, the difference is that the data.

I am very happy to see this, and I thought of this question a few days ago.
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March 08, 2021, 05:34:05 PM
 #11

in a sense you are right but if you really think about what you are saying you would see that it makes no sense. why should a system be designed for thousands of years? we know that bitcoin will never last that long. like everything else bitcoin will also be replaced by a new technology and 2140 is a good estimation of the time it would maybe start becoming obsolete. designing it for 9000 years makes no sense.

There is a FOMO brewing...
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March 09, 2021, 06:15:26 AM
 #12

maybe ill try to explain my point again, so imagine....

BTC 21,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

BTC 21,000,000,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

It would be the same.

So it wont matter FOR US if its a fixed supply of 21 million, because during the course of our human lifespan bitcoin will still inflate at the same rate.

But for people born in say 2120, it will be an issue because there will only be 20 years left before in becomes deflationary, but for all of us born now it has no effect.
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March 09, 2021, 07:36:59 AM
 #13

Agree it would be no different for us, but eventually, when we're all dead (assuming population stays about the same) there's will be too many coins to expect 6 figures.
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March 09, 2021, 08:08:39 AM
 #14

So BTC will continue to be mined until about 2140, when all 21 million are finished. But imagine if there were 21 trillion bitcoins and it finished in say the year 9140, it actually wouldn't make any difference to us than 21 million, because the inflation rate would still be the same.

If there were 21 trillion coins and they're all mined in 9140, then no, it wouldn't be the same. If they're 21 trillion coins and every other consensus rule was the same with bitcoin then every block would reward 50*1,000,000 for the first 209,999 blocks, 25*1,000,000 for the next 210,000 blocks and it goes on. The market cap wouldn't (probably) change and every coin would cost current_price / 1,000,000 => 53,000 USD / 1,000,000 = 0.053 cents.

But in order to be mined in 9140 you have to define:
  • The reward of each block.
  • The average time between mined blocks.
  • How often will a halving occur.

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lifeforcepools
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March 09, 2021, 08:42:59 AM
 #15

I don't quite understand what you mean by that. The value will certainly grow over time.

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Variogam
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March 09, 2021, 10:35:23 PM
 #16

It would be the same.

The rules of Bitcoin is the block rewards halve every about 4 years, thus the inflation halves every about 4 years as well. To end with 21 trillion, and not just 21 million Bitcoin have, the inflation rules would need to be very different from Bitcoin. With the 21 trillion in 9140, you would need some more or less constant inflation from now for the next 7000 years, but then you would end up with something like fiat, eg not worth hoding because it inflate over time to worthlessness Cheesy
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March 10, 2021, 09:30:50 AM
 #17

maybe ill try to explain my point again, so imagine....

BTC 21,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

BTC 21,000,000,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

It would be the same.

So it wont matter FOR US if its a fixed supply of 21 million, because during the course of our human lifespan bitcoin will still inflate at the same rate.

But for people born in say 2120, it will be an issue because there will only be 20 years left before in becomes deflationary, but for all of us born now it has no effect.
You only take one factor in your calculation. As vario mentioned above, even if inflation stays the same, there will be more and more coins that will enter the market, and eventually, the volume would drastically change. It will gradually become worthless (price will go down) and the purchasing power would decrease, just like fiat.

Do you think you'll be happy when your 1 BTC right now will be equal to 0.1 BTC in the next 10 years? I doubt you'll like that. You need to look at the long-term instead of the short-term effect.

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March 10, 2021, 03:24:03 PM
 #18

in a sense you are right but if you really think about what you are saying you would see that it makes no sense. why should a system be designed for thousands of years? we know that bitcoin will never last that long. like everything else bitcoin will also be replaced by a new technology and 2140 is a good estimation of the time it would maybe start becoming obsolete. designing it for 9000 years makes no sense.
There is logic in these reflections, but a little different. Many types of cryptocurrencies do not have an internal division and are issued in several billions and tens of billions. Since there are one hundred million satoshi in one bitcoin, it is quite possible to say that the bits of bitcoin that people can buy are a hundred million times more than 21 million.
If bitcoin continues to grow in price, then in the future, rarely will anyone buy not only whole bitcoins, but even ten and hundredths of it. Most likely, we will talk about buying a certain amount of satosh.

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March 10, 2021, 05:25:05 PM
 #19

But for people born in say 2120, it will be an issue because there will only be 20 years left before in becomes deflationary, but for all of us born now it has no effect.

I get the gist of what you're saying, although in a hundred years, a lot of things might and will happen that what you're trying to say would be trivial, and would not matter anymore. Perhaps by then, the need to use bitcoin would not be there, as it will be replaced by another system that runs better and is more adapted to the society in that century. Right now, the 21 million cap is in place to keep the system from losing value like fiat. Also, the diminishing returns over time ensures that no one can 'whale' the system and if they want to, they'd also need to shell a whole lot of money in order to do so.

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acener
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March 10, 2021, 06:22:09 PM
 #20

But for people born in say 2120, it will be an issue because there will only be 20 years left before in becomes deflationary, but for all of us born now it has no effect.

I get the gist of what you're saying, although in a hundred years, a lot of things might and will happen that what you're trying to say would be trivial, and would not matter anymore. Perhaps by then, the need to use bitcoin would not be there, as it will be replaced by another system that runs better and is more adapted to the society in that century. Right now, the 21 million cap is in place to keep the system from losing value like fiat. Also, the diminishing returns over time ensures that no one can 'whale' the system and if they want to, they'd also need to shell a whole lot of money in order to do so.
I am also asking it on myself would it be trendy or talked by the people when the last BTC is mined because it would be a 100 years from now,
A lot of things could happen crypto could still be there but BTC could had been replaced.
So for me let's just relax and enjoy it don't think too much about the future specially the one that you wouldn't even witness.

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