Published Failure Rates or Statistics on Failure Rate (formal or informal)

[SRK1]

Hello world.

I am in the process on writing a paper for school on the economics of bitcoin mining. I managed to create financial models that I think are accurate, but the biggest problem I have is it is unclear to me what the expected failure rate over a 4 year period is for various types of ASIC miners. I would appreciate any guidance formal or informal that anyone here can provide on this issue since that is a major component on calculating returns. Thank you very much for any help you can provide

[mikeywith]

You won't get anywhere, trust me, we have gears running just fine for 4 years and we have gears that failed after running just for a few weeks, some for days, some for months, there are no official statements from the manufacturers but for an example Jihan wu the former CEO admitted that the 17 series had high failure rate, he did not the deny the claim he was replying to which states >30% failure, and that was just a couple months after they hit the market.

But then, the next batches "supposedly" improved, and since the 30% came in after a short period of time, it increased for most others, if you ask Phill he will tell you his failure rate on the 17 series gears from Bitmain is pretty low if you ask me, it's well beyond 50%-60 by now IIRC, both of us are telling the truth but which piece of info are you going to use?

if you look around the support section, you'll find people reporting dead miners after a few weeks of purchasing them, some will say they bought this off Alibaba which has probably mined for way too long already, if you ask the Avalon fans they will tell you a very low failure rate, if you ask someone who happened to buy T17es from Malaysia batches their failure rate could be close to 100% by now, you will get completely different results and non of it will be a fair representation of the overall market.

[wndsnb]

Probably wouldn't be very accurate to use the 17 series failure rate for future projections since hopefully, it is an outlier. Maybe the manufacturing/design issues that caused it are were fixed with the latest series... too early to tell I think.

I think most people that are active here are not large-scale miners (say >10MW), so no one has a sample size big enough to be meaningful.

[Philipma1957cellphone]

At my peak I was at 2.2 ph

I am now at 1.8 ph

So .4/2.2 is close to 18%

Mixture of Avalon, bitmain , innosilicon, whatsminer

Gear was old and new. I started this farm dec 2018

[danieleither]

I'm running 9.4PH of gear, most bought new but some 2nd hand. Of the new gear I've bought, Bitmain S17e and T17+ are the only miners I've had zero problems with.

Failures as follows:

Jun / Aug batch 2020 | S19's (1 / 31) PSU issue
May batch 2020 | S17+ (2 / 3) Hashboard issues, but replaced under warranty
Unknown batch 2019 | T17+ (5 / 6) PSU issues / hashboard issues
Jun batch 2020 | T17+ (0 / 12) All perfect
Jun batch 2020 | S17e (0 / 24) All perfect
Unknown batch 2019 | S17 Pro (4 / 20) Hashboard issues
Apr batch 2020 | Whatsminer M31S (1 / 24) Hashboard issue
Unknown | S9 (4/10) hashboard issues