Who was right and who was wrong?

[Dan The Man]

I propose a thread to call to account various predictions and forecasts that people have made. Obviously I am a bit biased towards my own posts. Feel free to post quotes of your own or from others:

Wrong

I am far from a bear and want Bitcoin to shoot up to $100/BTC but have seen time and time again that on long holiday weekends when people cannot get deposits into their Dwolla accounts until the following Monday, the price drops throughout the long weekend, further than an average weekend.

It dropped quite a but over 4th of July weekend, Labor Day weekend and even over Columbus Day weekend.

Those were 3 day weekends.

With Thanksgiving, it will be 4 days with no deposits.

How low do you think Bitcoin will fall?

Is this the "blood in the streets" moment to buy up BTC on the cheap?

My vote is yes. Any buys at or below 2.20 are almost guaranteed profits in my opinion.

^ Replace 2.20 with 1.20 and I agree with you. Anyone buying in right now is exposing themselves to a swift 40% haircut.

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2. Then a rise, probably sometime near the weekend with some jumps and starts up to about 2.9, probably not going to be breaking $3.

In the Middle
At ~$2.3

No. There's still a long way down.

I just saw that our manipulator is back buying 50k coins at $2.30 a piece of MtGox. Does this mean we have seen the last of this bear market? I think he figures he manipulated the market as low as it will go in one day. Quite the profits for him. Based on what I see over the last month we could see a rally to $3.50 in the next couple of days.

Whats everyone elses thoughts on this?

Right

Is this the "blood in the streets" moment to buy up BTC on the cheap?

My vote is yes. Any buys at or below 2.20 are almost guaranteed profits in my opinion.

This is just based on looking at charts and kinda guessing. But either way, I am confident that those calling for a new sub $2 normal price are crazy. It might touch below $2 for a short moment, but it is definitely going back up.

There'll probably be another build up period with volume piling up a little bit ahead of the bid wall pushing the price as high as 2.5, maybe even a little more.  Then the big wall(s) will come down, this guy'll sell into the fresh bids, there'll be another flurry of panic selling and we'll setup for it to happen again at a lower price.  My guess is this will keep happening until whoever this is has rid himself of bitcoins in exchange for money he can actually use for something.

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

Yeah, makes me wish I had started my latest short position at something higher than 2.17.  Well, at least by holding on tight and keeping my lunch down, I was able to keep all my limbs during the ride.  Now, whether to take a long position from here...

Most definitely go long until 2.9 Just don't leverage so bad that you can't take a few bumps on the way.

[1714186051]

1714186051

[1714186051]

1714186051

[1714186051]

1714186051

[Raoul Duke]

You are the greatest man! You are Dan The Man! Always right!

Good thing you posted this thread, the world really needed to know this!
Life will never be the same now!   

Notice: Taking into account the board where you posted this: I call Speculation!

[Dan The Man]

You are the greatest man! You are Dan The Man! Always right!

Good thing you posted this thread, the world really needed to know this!
Life will never be the same now!   

Notice: Taking into account the board where you posted this: I call Speculation!

But the point is to see who is good at speculating and who is bad. Nobody brings up their wrong calls when they tell you what is going to happen next. If you spend enough time here, you kind of get an idea for everyones' positions, but most people probably don't or shouldn't spend that much time.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

While you're searching for past statements, you should find the one I made about 5 days ago where I told everyone that 2.7+ was coming, and to reduce their positions at bitcoinica and/or cover.

[tvbcof]

You've clearly got an enviable string of dead-on calls, Mr. Da-Man.

I personally hope that you are wrong at least once in your 'resume it's long slow decline' projection.  But, as always, it would be foolhardy to not take all potential eventualities into consideration.

[tvbcof]

While you're searching for past statements, you should find the one I made about 5 days ago where I told everyone that 2.7+ was coming, and to reduce their positions at bitcoinica and/or cover.

A bullseye is more impressive when there are not also a lot of darts stuck in the floor and the ceiling.  And warning of 2.7-ish after the hard-core short reamage at 2.5-is was hardly a bullseye either.

I actually doubt that there is a monolithic manipulator, but rather several people with some money and a sense of humor.  Whoever did the 2.5 one probably did a massive favor for a majority of the Bitcoinica shorts I would bet.

[bittenbob]

You have me as being wrong but I wasnt too far off in my statement. It technically has been more than a few days but we are almost at $3. I see that as being somewhat close to my prediction and I did say up to. Either way I disagree with how you classified my statement.

[gewure]

i was wrong, lost some coins

[RyNinDaCleM]

I was wrong once. I thought I was mistaken.   

I'd say, anyone who has been doing this for some time, and is not completely broke, MUST be right some of the time.

[Dan The Man]

Well I was sure wrong about this spike. Totally didn't see it coming.

[trogdorjw73]

Yeah, no kidding. My short sell at 2.75 is looking pretty silly right now, but I can wait. The real question is where to put the limit sell in -- $3.25? I don't see us sustaining anything near the $3.00+ mark right now, though my mining rigs would love me to be wrong.

[bittenbob]

So Dan are you going to change my post from the wrong pile?

[Sitarow]

Get them while their HOT!

[Dan The Man]

So Dan are you going to change my post from the wrong pile?

sure, but few days to me is 3 or 4, not 14

[bittenbob]

I think the middle pile would be more appropriate


(Add)

I see it now - wohoo! LOL

[neptop]

Been right:

I doubt there will be a serious drop. It won't go below 2. If it does so, I will buy tons of them.

[old_engineer]

I've been right so far, and I think this is the only prediction dart I've thrown.

My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year.

And honestly, I don't think it's possible to accurately call day-by-day market movement.  The big player(s) do what they want, when they want, and the rest of us are playing in the sandbox they own, whether we want to admit it or not.  The exact timing is based on when they're online and feel like moving the market to wherever they want it.

Within the bid & ask walls laid out by the big player(s), I've had good luck predicting hour-by-hour movements.  And of course, week-to-week/month-to-month movement is somewhat predicable, and even big players have to heed these overall trends, lest they buy or sell for significantly less profit than they could otherwise.

[SgtSpike]

I think an interesting website would be a no-betting speculation site with points and high score charts.  You can predict prices in the future, but you cannot change those predictions once made.  You get more points for making an earlier prediction that is correct (within a margin of error), but lose points for making an incorrect prediction.  Then, you can chart various users' predictions on a graph, along with the actual bitcoin price to find out which user is correct the most.

It could help give credibility to those speculators who are actually good at predicting future prices, and would be a fun, competitive way of doing it.

[old_engineer]

Phorensic has been wrong so far:

I shorted at 2.75 and then more at 2.80.  I'm sure it will fall back to 2.50, even if momentarily.  The waiting is killing me.  I'm a day trader, not a big slow swing trader dangit.

[phorensic]

Phorensic has been wrong so far:

I shorted at 2.75 and then more at 2.80.  I'm sure it will fall back to 2.50, even if momentarily.  The waiting is killing me.  I'm a day trader, not a big slow swing trader dangit.

Yep.  Take my advice with a grain of salt.  I made a ton of positive trades before that...I mean a ton.  Here we are above 3.00 and I took a 12% loss on my shorts to open a long.  I talk, but I am no S3052 type person to guarantee my advice.  I still suck at this IMO.