Brexit Losses Continue to Mount

[jaysabi]

London has long been the stock-trading center of Europe, but post-Brexit losses continue to siege traditionally strong British industries.  From the Financial Times:

Amsterdam surpassed London as Europe’s largest share trading centre last month as the Netherlands scooped up business lost by the UK since Brexit.

An average €9.2bn shares a day were traded on Euronext Amsterdam and the Dutch arms of CBOE Europe and Turquoise in January, a more than fourfold increase from December. The surge came as volumes in London fell sharply to €8.6bn, dislodging the UK from its historic position as the main hub for the European market, according to data from CBOE Europe.

The shift was prompted by a ban on EU-based financial institutions trading in London because Brussels has not recognised UK exchanges and trading venues as having the same supervisory status as its own.

Without this so-called equivalence to ease cross-border dealing, there was an immediate shift of €6.5bn of deals to the EU when the Brexit transition period concluded at the end of last year. It was about half of the amount of business that London banks and brokers would normally handle.

This happened only 1 month after Brexit went into effect.  Other industries have seen even worse consequences:

• UK Fish Exports Fall 83% in January
• British Exports to EU Fall 40% in First Month Since Brexit

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

[jackg]

I'd be sad if it wasn't London taking the hit...

I'm sure the area of the country with $20tr+ investment capital will find a way to bounce back though.

It's probably more worrying that the government continues to undeffund education and healthcare - so we're going to end up with a lot worse in the future.

[aoluain]

They are massive losses just in one month, in all fairness though
did the british think it was going to be different, that there would
not be any consequences for leaving the EU?

At least they have control of their own borders, sadly the recklessness
of the leave campaign and its winning vote has created serious
consequences for certain industries.

Do the government have any economic gameplan to counter the falling
exports?

[paxmao]

London has long been the stock-trading center of Europe, but post-Brexit losses continue to siege traditionally strong British industries.  From the Financial Times:

Amsterdam surpassed London as Europe’s largest share trading centre last month as the Netherlands scooped up business lost by the UK since Brexit.

An average €9.2bn shares a day were traded on Euronext Amsterdam and the Dutch arms of CBOE Europe and Turquoise in January, a more than fourfold increase from December. The surge came as volumes in London fell sharply to €8.6bn, dislodging the UK from its historic position as the main hub for the European market, according to data from CBOE Europe.

The shift was prompted by a ban on EU-based financial institutions trading in London because Brussels has not recognised UK exchanges and trading venues as having the same supervisory status as its own.

Without this so-called equivalence to ease cross-border dealing, there was an immediate shift of €6.5bn of deals to the EU when the Brexit transition period concluded at the end of last year. It was about half of the amount of business that London banks and brokers would normally handle.

This happened only 1 month after Brexit went into effect.  Other industries have seen even worse consequences:

• UK Fish Exports Fall 83% in January
• British Exports to EU Fall 40% in First Month Since Brexit

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

Fishery sports are nothing to UK's economy, the impact on the City is going to be severe short term but my take is that UK will de-regulate, which was the Brexit plan anyway. That should bring enough business back to recover.  Regarding exports, there is a short term impact on business due to new red-tape but that should be shorted with a little bit of time.

The problem has not been as much brexit as the double punch with COVID. Just think of it, if you could choose, you would have brexited better any other year. Those figures and the supply chains issues are basically related to COVID, not brexit.

[m4acker]

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

Shipping  between mainland UK to Europe  and even Northern Ireland is now such a hassle that I don't consider it unless totally desperate. I shipped some products to a guy in Slovakia and it took 3 weeks to "process" in customs. Germany was about the same, and even Northern Ireland, usually only 2 days took over a week.

The time to process stuff will probably get faster, sure, but still got to attach export documents where they were not required before in addition to the extra cost. Kinda sucks.   

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

British government didn't thoroughly think what they were doing when they were planning to exit the European Union, not to mention that they do not even listen to the people that they do not want the Brexit in the first place. The sad thing is that the average people is going to suffer the hit and not the politicians because they are a citizen in other European countries already so when the going gets bad, they can just migrate to the country that they are a citizen and watch the UK burn.

[carter34]

The sad thing is that the average people is going to suffer the hit and not the politicians because they are a citizen in other European countries already so when the going gets bad, they can just migrate to the country that they are a citizen and watch the UK burn.

Do you expect that it will come that way? I believe this is a currency issue that UK is wanting to protect the existence of there currency from going off. It will not get politicians to run away because it is no war issue. The politicians are affected already because the issue have forced past prime ministers to resign. I remember Theresa May who went down before Baron.

[franky1]

I'd be sad if it wasn't London taking the hit...

I'm sure the area of the country with $20tr+ investment capital will find a way to bounce back though.

It's probably more worrying that the government continues to undeffund education and healthcare - so we're going to end up with a lot worse in the future.

UK gov was never getting anything from stock trading from canary wharf(tax avoidance) so the UK gov want to concentrate on the physical trade
after all why let finance guys trade micropennies day trading where canary wharf keep the loot. when the government can get 2%-15% by playing with physical trading at the freeports

eg america moving chicken into europe direct costs them import tax duties to europe. but if they loop it through a UK 'freeport' to process the chicken. eu would then accept the chicken at a UK lower rate
UK can then charge u.s a small middleman fee for the saving

right now though UK gov have to make it harder for companies to do this via normal ports. (hense the extra bureaucracy) to then incentivise foreign trade to use freeports instead.

its much like raising the bitcoin tx fee. delay transactions.. to get people to prefer to use LN.. yes it causes headaches at first because people just want to transact the way they did before but cant without costing more time/money
but hey in the end those using the other network will gain from it. while calling out the old way as near obsolete.
they are not interested in streamlining and improving the legacy methods. they just want to tweak the legacy methods to promote their new method.

its no coincidence that legacy ports are now harder to use whilst freeports are being created

[Mauser]

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

I think no one really expected that Brexit would be any good idea for UK. The long term effects are definitely going to be negative. So far the financial services have been excluded from the withdrawal agreement, but eventually there needs to be a new regulation in place. I don't think the EU will allow to keep up the dependency on London for all the trading and clearing in Euro. Amsterdam might be a big winner here, but I would expect that France wants a share as well, and probably so wants Germany. Maybe a split between Amsterdam, Brussel, Paris and Frankfurt would be possible.

[Ozero]

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

Shipping  between mainland UK to Europe  and even Northern Ireland is now such a hassle that I don't consider it unless totally desperate. I shipped some products to a guy in Slovakia and it took 3 weeks to "process" in customs. Germany was about the same, and even Northern Ireland, usually only 2 days took over a week.

The time to process stuff will probably get faster, sure, but still got to attach export documents where they were not required before in addition to the extra cost. Kinda sucks.   

In principle, this is more of a problem during the initial period after England's secession from the European Union. However, by this time the government of this country had to prepare accordingly. There was plenty of time
after all, the exit was postponed several times. The countries of the European Union really showed England the advantages of such a union. Perhaps this state of affairs will increase the pressure of the people on the government to re-join the EU.

[jaysabi]

They are massive losses just in one month, in all fairness though
did the british think it was going to be different, that there would
not be any consequences for leaving the EU?

At least they have control of their own borders, sadly the recklessness
of the leave campaign and its winning vote has created serious
consequences for certain industries.

Do the government have any economic gameplan to counter the falling
exports?

Well yeah, the Brexit people basically campaigned on the premise that everything would be better without being part of the EU.  I'm not sure that control of the borders is such a huge accomplishment in the face of the staggering economic losses.  Seems like a minor problem was traded for a much larger one.  Just add it to the list of bad trades in this whole ordeal.

[fullhdpixel]

GDP was down 2.9% in January as the supply chains have been thrown into havoc and business disruptions have been described as "endemic," and it turns out the government didn't do an economic assessment on the trade deal despite it being the most consequential trade agreement in memory.  It's one thing to have the economy torpedoed by global macro economic conditions, it's an entirely different one to steer the ship headlong into the iceberg as Britain has done.

Shipping  between mainland UK to Europe  and even Northern Ireland is now such a hassle that I don't consider it unless totally desperate. I shipped some products to a guy in Slovakia and it took 3 weeks to "process" in customs. Germany was about the same, and even Northern Ireland, usually only 2 days took over a week.

The time to process stuff will probably get faster, sure, but still got to attach export documents where they were not required before in addition to the extra cost. Kinda sucks.   

That was known way beforehand, not like it was something out of nowhere, when you get out of EU, they have to treat you like any other nation, if you ship something from Gambia to France, the same protocols happen to those items as the ones from Britain, which is why it has been a thing and will be a thing that takes a long time. If you are expecting these things to get easier, I have to say that it will not, you should have considered this long before brexit happened in Britain.

I know some of you guys didn't wanted it, but the nation wanted it so much that you had 3 presidents over course of like one year just to make it happen, you wanted it THAT much, then ended up voting for a trump look a like just so you can get out. This is why I think it is quite obvious that Britain will hurt because of this, but they will eventually get better and get used it over longer period of time.

[Lorence.xD]

Now the people are suffering the consequences of Brexit, isn't the politicians at that time were the only one that were truly pushing to get out of EU because there were a lot people criticizing their decision to get out of the Union because there are implications and now the implications are showing. And the politicians that are pushing it are already safe because they already knew what was going to happen.

[mazdafunsun]

Thanks for this information , I was not foreseeing this kind of fall out from brexit. As a citizen of European country , i think that brexit is a sad and stupid outcome. We are stronger together, and the Union was benefiting UK and EU, now both are hurting financially and most likely UK is hurting more in many aspects. This situation is even sadder because the referendum was won by such a little margin, if it was held today i am sure that they would not leave.

[Ultegra134]

I'm not from the UK, however I was also against them leaving the European Union. They are on their own now, simple things such as ordering from an online store isn't possible now, due to high import taxes.

I used to buy quite a lot of stuff from Amazon.co.uk or other websites (used to order cycling/sport equipment) and have honestly spent a large sum of money in the UK market. Although, now with Brexit, I won't order anything again due to import taxes that have been imposed, it's just easier to purchase from German or French e-shops.

[tyz]

I think it is too early to see the real impact of Brexit on the UK economy. The current figures are also distorted by the Corona crisis. I believe that the UK can benefit from Brexit in the medium and long term. You can also see in the current Corona crisis how strongly the EU countries are tied to partly senseless regulations of the EU and this is also a reason why things are not going well in the EU and the UK is doing better. Of course, the UK also needs time to find a new "business model" for itself but if they are smart about it, UK can have better economic growth in the future than the EU countries as a whole without the EU's bureaucratic backpack.

[palle11]

Thanks for this information , I was not foreseeing this kind of fall out from brexit. As a citizen of European country , i think that brexit is a sad and stupid outcome. We are stronger together, and the Union was benefiting UK and EU, now both are hurting financially and most likely UK is hurting more in many aspects. This situation is even sadder because the referendum was won by such a little margin, if it was held today i am sure that they would not leave.

From my view area, I expect that it should benefit UK more in terms of the strength of the currency because it will help them to focus more on developing and protecting there currency. But I think in unity as a zone, UK will not be really seen as having a union with the UK as countries in same zone .

[Theb]

Is Brexit really the reason why the economy of UK is suddenly going down? Because based from what the news I have been seeing the economical downturn is more attributed to the pandemic rather than the Brexit. I've read before that during the first lockdown in UK the economy almost got cut down by a quarter and I think it is one of the biggest factors why they are having problems with the economy. I've also read that during the lockdown some businesses didn't even recovered and they were permanently shutdown. Or maybe the more possible reason here is both Brexit and the pandemic are in play on why UK is experiencing problems the media might only be covering more of the pandemic as they don't want their government to be blamed for the Brexit.

[Febo]

Brexit Losses Continue to Mount

Every start is hard. I am sure chaps from other side of the channel will soon suit up and start working hard and prosper. The biggest problems I see are internal with Northern Ireland and Scotland. we will see how that will end. But the point is it ends so new start can begin. I am sure Britain can prosper even without them.

[fiulpro]

Honestly this is extremely normal , we are in the middle of a pandemic right now , thus things like that are going to be on the track after the country starts recovering from the hit. They did start the more mutated strain though which did spread from there because the Government did not impose better restrictions. After a while, the losses will get less and at the end of the day people should really stay away from the governmental markets right now, no one knows what is going to happen but they do have the perfect opportunity to invest in non Centralized markets such as cryptocurrencies.
The country should not worry about such things , the UK does have much problems but they are not showing , much like US their market is also fragile. Here is a paragraph from Google:

The UK economy during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic: 2020. Headline gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 9.9% in 2020. ... The fall in 2020 was more than twice the next largest fall of 4.0% in 2009, driven by significantly weaker growth from services (Figure 14).