Probability of cryptocurrency apocalypse

[Lorence.xD]

~

I don't think fiat can completely be wiped out, but this is all illusional discussions, setting up examples of possible scenarios that could happen with the fast growing sector.  Bitcoin theft just like every other currencies happens and will continue to happen. It is all left for the user who wishes to save Bitcoin as stock for a long time to learn tactics on how to outsmart the potential fraudster by using custodian wallets maybe. Security is a very important aspect of Bitcoin that doesn't need to be taken lightly, exposing your private keys to a non trusted exchange already puts you in risk of hack as the OP has suggested.

Why blame bitcoin's security, it is already safe, the real problem is the people, putting your personal info and your wallets on websites you don't even trust is a failing on the person, no matter how secure a thing is if the person handling it is incompetent or careless, a breach is going to happen. The solution is to make people learn the idea of responsibility and being safe online.

[panganib999]

~

I don't think fiat can completely be wiped out, but this is all illusional discussions, setting up examples of possible scenarios that could happen with the fast growing sector.  Bitcoin theft just like every other currencies happens and will continue to happen. It is all left for the user who wishes to save Bitcoin as stock for a long time to learn tactics on how to outsmart the potential fraudster by using custodian wallets maybe. Security is a very important aspect of Bitcoin that doesn't need to be taken lightly, exposing your private keys to a non trusted exchange already puts you in risk of hack as the OP has suggested.

Why blame bitcoin's security, it is already safe, the real problem is the people, putting your personal info and your wallets on websites you don't even trust is a failing on the person, no matter how secure a thing is if the person handling it is incompetent or careless, a breach is going to happen. The solution is to make people learn the idea of responsibility and being safe online.

I agree. Bitcoin is definitely progressive these past few years. The problem is that the people always look on th side of earning it and not on the side of having a good security. I also have some friends who are so clumsy and careless to their belongingness like the seed phrase or wallet code. I told them to stick and be vigilant to their wallet. But they oftenly hand it to anyone just like a piece of paper. And I told them not to bring it and just put it in the safe place in their house. I don't know what happen to their account but I'm sure that is it now not in good place.

[cabron]

The arguement is weak when it comes to security so there is no need to elaborate how secure BTC is. And about the apocalypse of crypto is not likely to happen after 10 years of its success, it even beats the Visa and Mastercard's cap combined so there is no question that cryptocurrency is winning the game already. And to add up for its success the institutions right now are up to hedge using BTC too which you could conclude right now that the probability of cryptocurrency collapse is close to zero.

[Kakmakr]

Let's look at this from another angle to give this discussion a new perspective :

Do you trust Banks? (Given their history and how they are still manipulated by governments and still used for money laundering and clients pc's and phones hacked and syndicate infiltration in Banks... is this really more secure than Bitcoin?)

Satoshi Nakamoto has developed this to give people a second alternative to Banks (traditional system) .... So you have the choice if you want to take more control and if you want an alternative when the Banks eventually fail.

I have lost money with Credit card fraud and when a Bank was closed years back, due to Bankruptcy and lots of corruption inside the Banking group.  

What do you do when the Banks close and block the ATM's? (Examples : Greece / Zimbabwe .....) 

[mboxdk]

My paranoid fears come from the fact that bitcoin has already conquered the whole world and has become the main unit of value. It is necessary to consider what I am writing from this angle.

At the moment, I do not understand how bitcoin can be forever in an intermediate state as it is now. He will either win everyone or lose completely.

You need to understand that bitcoin is not just the first cryptocurrency, it is a history of the redistribution of money between people for more than 10 years. You cannot be sure of the economic security of any cryptocurrency created after Bitcoin. I would consider any other cryptocurrency as a scam.

[Kakmakr]

My paranoid fears come from the fact that bitcoin has already conquered the whole world and has become the main unit of value. It is necessary to consider what I am writing from this angle.

At the moment, I do not understand how bitcoin can be forever in an intermediate state as it is now. He will either win everyone or lose completely.

You need to understand that bitcoin is not just the first cryptocurrency, it is a history of the redistribution of money between people for more than 10 years. You cannot be sure of the economic security of any cryptocurrency created after Bitcoin. I would consider any other cryptocurrency as a scam.

No my friend... Alt coins are a natural extension of this technology. You should know all other technologies gets ripped off ...after the patent expire or when it is Open source like this. We (Bitcoin supporters) should embrace Alt coins that might experiment with new ideas and new concepts that might be added to Bitcoin to strengthen it. 

I see Alt coins as the breeding ground for new innovation that might some day improve Bitcoin's code. Let them copy the code and change it all they want, we can use that to our advantage.    (Loads of them fail and some are pump n dump coins... but they never survive long, before they are exposed.) 

[ultrloa]

~

I don't think fiat can completely be wiped out, but this is all illusional discussions, setting up examples of possible scenarios that could happen with the fast growing sector.  Bitcoin theft just like every other currencies happens and will continue to happen. It is all left for the user who wishes to save Bitcoin as stock for a long time to learn tactics on how to outsmart the potential fraudster by using custodian wallets maybe. Security is a very important aspect of Bitcoin that doesn't need to be taken lightly, exposing your private keys to a non trusted exchange already puts you in risk of hack as the OP has suggested.

Why blame bitcoin's security, it is already safe, the real problem is the people, putting your personal info and your wallets on websites you don't even trust is a failing on the person, no matter how secure a thing is if the person handling it is incompetent or careless, a breach is going to happen. The solution is to make people learn the idea of responsibility and being safe online.

I agree. Bitcoin is definitely progressive these past few years. The problem is that the people always look on th side of earning it and not on the side of having a good security. I also have some friends who are so clumsy and careless to their belongingness like the seed phrase or wallet code. I told them to stick and be vigilant to their wallet. But they oftenly hand it to anyone just like a piece of paper. And I told them not to bring it and just put it in the safe place in their house. I don't know what happen to their account but I'm sure that is it now not in good place.

Bitcoin is been introduce on that way that's why many people think about bitcoin is investment if they join it and I'm not surprise about people threating it since imagine how volatile the market is so other people cannot see the true potential since its been covered by thinking that they might earn if bitcoin pumps crazily. On other hand the clumsiness is a not surprisingly mistake since all of us encounter that issues so if your friend doesn't know how to secure their assets well best to educate them so that they know what are the important things to do and how to avoid possible losses for having bad security on their accounts.

[mboxdk]

My paranoid fears come from the fact that bitcoin has already conquered the whole world and has become the main unit of value. It is necessary to consider what I am writing from this angle.

At the moment, I do not understand how bitcoin can be forever in an intermediate state as it is now. He will either win everyone or lose completely.

You need to understand that bitcoin is not just the first cryptocurrency, it is a history of the redistribution of money between people for more than 10 years. You cannot be sure of the economic security of any cryptocurrency created after Bitcoin. I would consider any other cryptocurrency as a scam.

No my friend... Alt coins are a natural extension of this technology. You should know all other technologies gets ripped off ...after the patent expire or when it is Open source like this. We (Bitcoin supporters) should embrace Alt coins that might experiment with new ideas and new concepts that might be added to Bitcoin to strengthen it.  

I see Alt coins as the breeding ground for new innovation that might some day improve Bitcoin's code. Let them copy the code and change it all they want, we can use that to our advantage.    (Loads of them fail and some are pump n dump coins... but they never survive long, before they are exposed.)  

Altcoins are only a development of technology, but they cannot be used to store funds, because there is a high probability that they are economically compromised

[altsynapse]

Taking into accounts some recent events a think another possible apocalypse could be caused by poisoing the blockchain with
dirty addresses that would lead to over ligitation that would spiral price to 2010 levels.

[ranochigo]

Are you absolutely confident in the security of bitcoin client that you use? Are you absolutely sure in the security of OS that you use for the bitcoin client?
Are you always confident that the binaries you download do not contain a backdoor?
Are you absolutely confident that when you download a repository from a github, you download the original code? Do you check the hash every time?
Are you absolutely confident that open source guarantees no backdoors inside? You probably read it all after downloading from github?
Are you absolutely confident re that your compiler does not have a backdoor built in to embed a backdoor? Are you confident that the compiler that built your compiler does not have a built-in backdoor?
Are you absolutely confident in your hardware?

One hole anywhere is enough to lose all your money. You cannot check everything. Organizations that will use cryptocurrencies will not be able to verify everything. Bitcoins are very easy to steal due to the human factor.

If bitcoin becomes widespread there will be a great interest in finding and creating such vulnerabilities

I'm almost certain that most people would be answering no for the most parts. Reading the source codes line by line is not feasible; Windows is not open source and reading the codes of any Linux distribution is tedious to say the least. If you are that paranoid, then it would be difficult for you to feel safe.

That is unfortunately how Bitcoin actually works and the truth is that you can probably never be fully secure. The only thing that most people can do is to try to reduce the attack vectors and its possible surfaces; cold wallets isolates itself and preventing communication to the outside world. Generating sufficient entropy yourself puts RNG problems out of the equation, though you'll have to trust that the process to convert it to a private key isn't compromised.

If you are actually that paranoid, then you can probably take some time trying to learn and read it. Not going to comment on how many people would actually do this, but it is a way to eliminate most doubts.

[mboxdk]

Are you absolutely confident in the security of bitcoin client that you use? Are you absolutely sure in the security of OS that you use for the bitcoin client?
Are you always confident that the binaries you download do not contain a backdoor?
Are you absolutely confident that when you download a repository from a github, you download the original code? Do you check the hash every time?
Are you absolutely confident that open source guarantees no backdoors inside? You probably read it all after downloading from github?
Are you absolutely confident re that your compiler does not have a backdoor built in to embed a backdoor? Are you confident that the compiler that built your compiler does not have a built-in backdoor?
Are you absolutely confident in your hardware?

One hole anywhere is enough to lose all your money. You cannot check everything. Organizations that will use cryptocurrencies will not be able to verify everything. Bitcoins are very easy to steal due to the human factor.

If bitcoin becomes widespread there will be a great interest in finding and creating such vulnerabilities

I'm almost certain that most people would be answering no for the most parts. Reading the source codes line by line is not feasible; Windows is not open source and reading the codes of any Linux distribution is tedious to say the least. If you are that paranoid, then it would be difficult for you to feel safe.

That is unfortunately how Bitcoin actually works and the truth is that you can probably never be fully secure. The only thing that most people can do is to try to reduce the attack vectors and its possible surfaces; cold wallets isolates itself and preventing communication to the outside world. Generating sufficient entropy yourself puts RNG problems out of the equation, though you'll have to trust that the process to convert it to a private key isn't compromised.

If you are actually that paranoid, then you can probably take some time trying to learn and read it. Not going to comment on how many people would actually do this, but it is a way to eliminate most doubts.

Having written this, I probably want to explain not the technical, but the political and economic problem of bitcoin.
Bitcoin cannot be integrated into the existing centralized government system because governments cannot rely on third-party hardware and software, and people in government cannot trust each other.
Bitcoin can only survive in an anarchic environment or die.
Bitcoin can create a society in which no centralized structures can emerge, because no one can trust anyone.

[ranochigo]

Having written this, I probably want to explain not the technical, but the political and economic problem of bitcoin.
Bitcoin cannot be integrated into the existing centralized government system because governments cannot rely on third-party hardware and software, and people in government cannot trust each other.
Bitcoin can only survive in an anarchic environment or die.

Every government functions differently. It should be sufficient for them to engage someone to audit it regularly. If anything, SolarWinds just proves how easy it is to do something like this, if it gets to Bitcoin.

Having government adopting Bitcoin is an unrealistic expectation, defeats the purpose of fiat in an economy and probably isn't desirable given that capital flows can't be controlled any longer. Technological barrier and security is honestly not their main concern. Bitcoin can survive in its current stage, you can't create vulnerabilities out of thin air; if you can sufficiently minimize the attack vectors, then there wouldn't be a big issue.

[mboxdk]

Having written this, I probably want to explain not the technical, but the political and economic problem of bitcoin.
Bitcoin cannot be integrated into the existing centralized government system because governments cannot rely on third-party hardware and software, and people in government cannot trust each other.
Bitcoin can only survive in an anarchic environment or die.

Every government functions differently. It should be sufficient for them to engage someone to audit it regularly. If anything, SolarWinds just proves how easy it is to do something like this, if it gets to Bitcoin.

Having government adopting Bitcoin is an unrealistic expectation, defeats the purpose of fiat in an economy and probably isn't desirable given that capital flows can't be controlled any longer. Technological barrier and security is honestly not their main concern. Bitcoin can survive in its current stage, you can't create vulnerabilities out of thin air; if you can sufficiently minimize the attack vectors, then there wouldn't be a big issue.

If Bitcoin continues to integrate into society, then the collapse of governments and the fiat system is inevitable, because there will be no economic incentive to keep money outside of Bitcoin.

[Lucius]

My paranoid fears come from the fact that bitcoin has already conquered the whole world and has become the main unit of value. It is necessary to consider what I am writing from this angle.

In some of the most optimistic calculations, Bitcoin is used by perhaps about 2% of the world's population, which would amount to just under 160 million people in the world - slightly more than the total population of Germany and France. What you imagine will probably never happen, because Bitcoin is just an alternative, and it's too complicated for the average person today, as it will be in 10 years in the future.

Bitcoin cannot be integrated into the existing centralized government system because governments cannot rely on third-party hardware and software, and people in government cannot trust each other.

The example of Germany and Japan shows that it should not be integrated into a system to the extent that it threatens it, peaceful coexistence is completely normal and possible. Fiat will not disappear, and it is foolish to even think in the direction of replacing it with BTC - most countries will issue their CBDCs anyway.

Everyone takes a risk, and if you think Bitcoin has no future just don't have anything to do with it - your government is forcing you to use the national currency, it's not a matter of choice - on the other hand no one is forcing you to use Bitcoin or any other altcoin.

[mboxdk]

In some of the most optimistic calculations, Bitcoin is used by perhaps about 2% of the world's population, which would amount to just under 160 million people in the world - slightly more than the total population of Germany and France. What you imagine will probably never happen, because Bitcoin is just an alternative, and it's too complicated for the average person today, as it will be in 10 years in the future.

The example of Germany and Japan shows that it should not be integrated into a system to the extent that it threatens it, peaceful coexistence is completely normal and possible. Fiat will not disappear, and it is foolish to even think in the direction of replacing it with BTC - most countries will issue their CBDCs anyway.
Everyone takes a risk, and if you think Bitcoin has no future just don't have anything to do with it - your government is forcing you to use the national currency, it's not a matter of choice - on the other hand no one is forcing you to use Bitcoin or any other altcoin.

Human fear and greed can force all the last savings to be carried in bitcoin, enough for one large country to become infected, all the rest will fall after it.
Printing new dollars can be a catalyst. Bitcoin could start to amplify the inflationary process on its own.

[slaman29]

No I don't think you're right about assumptions here. I agree infinitely up and down are two equal possibilities, but to me the more likely case is something in between.

Firstly, either probability even if it does happen, won't be in this life. We'll all be dead then.

Secondly, a virus killing all bitcoin? Even if possible, Bitcoin will resurrect. And as you said, even worse risk for banks etc.

Finally on security? 100% confidence, and much less so in any other alternative.

[mboxdk]

No I don't think you're right about assumptions here. I agree infinitely up and down are two equal possibilities, but to me the more likely case is something in between.

Firstly, either probability even if it does happen, won't be in this life. We'll all be dead then.

Secondly, a virus killing all bitcoin? Even if possible, Bitcoin will resurrect. And as you said, even worse risk for banks etc.

Finally on security? 100% confidence, and much less so in any other alternative.

If you are right, then you must remember that the cost of supporting the work of bitcoin is already about 50 million dollars per day, plus a lot of people who take money from the coin. Bitcoin turns out to live only at the expense of new arrivals. This is more suitable for a ponzi scheme, and not just some kind of anonymous payment system. There must be a logical end.

[Lucius]

Human fear and greed can force all the last savings to be carried in bitcoin, enough for one large country to become infected, all the rest will fall after it.
Printing new dollars can be a catalyst. Bitcoin could start to amplify the inflationary process on its own.

You talk about Bitcoin as some kind of infection that will infect people who are scared or greedy, but you completely ignore that the average Joe has no idea what Bitcoin really is or how to buy it. What you read in crypto related news or on this forum is only a small part of human reality, and I really don't see the point in comparing it to a financial pandemic that will infect the whole world.

I think you’re too influenced by some apocalyptic movies, and maybe you could write a screenplay for one such movie - instead of a virus let the main culprit be Bitcoin

If you are right, then you must remember that the cost of supporting the work of bitcoin is already about 50 million dollars per day, plus a lot of people who take money from the coin. Bitcoin turns out to live only at the expense of new arrivals. This is more suitable for a ponzi scheme, and not just some kind of anonymous payment system. There must be a logical end.

As I already wrote, you are obviously under the influence of garbage served by some obscure sites - what you are writing here now is already so worn out that it no longer makes sense. Stop reading garbage like this -> Bitcoin mining rigs now LOSING money daily as the Bitcoin Ponzi scheme continues to unravel

[kryptqnick]

Op is right that Bitcoin is not risk-free. But nothing is. Fiat has tons of risks, for instance. Since fiat is not backed up by anything but authority, it can be overprinted and that leads to hyperinflation. Even without hyperinflation there's steady devaluation of fiat which is sometimes referred to as a hidden tax. Apart from this, keeping your money in a bank means basically letting the bank do whatever they please with the actual money and hope that they'd allow you to use what you gave them when you need it (which is usually true if everything is fine, but if a crisis is underway or if you're a subject of a criminal investigation, you can suddenly and painfully be reminded that you're not in control of this money). If you're keeping money in cash, you might be robbed or the money might be destroyed by water or fire, for instance.
Bitcoin might keep going up, or it might eventually stabilize. These options don't prevent it from being used as money, I believe.
As for the concerns about the safety of BTC, I'm pretty sure that if there were any backdoors or something like that, the money would have already been stolen.

[mboxdk]

As I already wrote, you are obviously under the influence of garbage served by some obscure sites - what you are writing here now is already so worn out that it no longer makes sense. Stop reading garbage like this -> Bitcoin mining rigs now LOSING money daily as the Bitcoin Ponzi scheme continues to unravel

I have not read anything, everything I write is exclusively my speculation from my fevered imagination. What is your argument?