The Phases/Stages Of Bitcoin

[djangofan]

I was just thinking about what might be the "Phases of Bitcoin".    Feel free to put your own opinions here on what phases bitcoin is going through.

Stages Of Bitcoin?

A. Technological Oddity (2009-2014)
  1. 2008 - The great recession inspires a new money
  2. 2011 - Organizations start accepting Bitcoin for donations
  3. 2013 - Opportunistic behaviors in the market:
      - Alternative coins begin to emerge
      - Bitcoins used in drug trade
      - $13 a coin
  4. 2014 - First large companies accepting Bitocin: Dell, NewEgg, and a casino in vegas

B. Censorship Resistance (2015-2019)
  1. 2015 - Coinbase raises $75 funding and over 100,000 merchants accepting Sats.
   - $315 a coin
  2. 2016 - BitFenix hacked
  3. 2017 - Japan and Russia passes law legalizing Bitcoin
     - From $1000-$20000 a coin
     - Bitcoin Cash forks from Bitcoin
  4. First few HODLrs begin to exist.
  5. Larger exchanges like Gemini +Coinbase are more mainstream

C. Digital Gold (2020-2021)
  1. Price 20,000-$60,000 by March 2
  2. HODLrs emerge in mass - January-Feb 2021
  3. City of Miami buys Bitcoin to pay employees.
  4. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup begin plans to create ETFs.
  5. Tesla and MicroStrategy become largest new holders.
  6. Bitcoin scams become very prominent, mostly as Alt-coins and Facebook groups
  7. Twitter and Clubhouse become areas to communicate about Bitcoin trading
  8. Bitcoin trying to be normalized as property, or as replacement for Bonds.

D. International Trade Currency (2022+)
  1. Interest free Bitcoin money perfect for Muslim traders
  2. Bitcoin looks like it might replace the SDR for smaller countries looking to increase prosperity.
  3. CoinBase IPO, ETFs, PayPal.
  4. Banks finally admit they have been hodling since 2014.

[franky1]

short answer:
2009-2011 the cypherpunk era
2011-2013 the illcit/speculator era
2013-2015 the bankless cash mainstream era
2015-2017 the bankless investor era
2017-2020 the 'it-not-cash-it reserve-gold' era
2020-2021 the institution investor era

explained:
09-11: this was the nerd era where most of the community were interested in the nerdy features of transactions without needing a fiat bank account

11-13: silk road an darknet site used it as currency, hardly an real retailers. and most of the trades done by people looking to speculate in something new that was not common stocks, forex, shares

13-15 this was the main period of recruiting legit retailers. literally millions of legit retailers allowed btc either direct or through shoppingcart exchange services

15-17 more people seen the $6-$600 of previous years so started to invest hard. but not institutions..yet

17-20 sentiment began that btc is not good as a 'digicash' and btc features hurt 'digicash' utility in favour of other sidechains. thus emphasising btc should be thought as a reserve/'vault-up' asset instead

20-21 institutions started getting interested.

[Mauser]

I was just thinking about what might be the "Phases of Bitcoin".    Feel free to put your own opinions here on what phases bitcoin is going through.

D. International Trade Currency (2022+)
  1. Interest free Bitcoin money perfect for Muslim traders
  2. Bitcoin looks like it might replace the SDR for smaller companies looking to increase prosperity.

This sounds nice for the future of bitcoins. I hope we can reach such conditions in the near future, but so far I haven't seen any large international trades being settled in bitcoin. The problem we are facing here is that price is still very volatile. While I think that many more insititutions are going to use bitcoins as an investment, to have trading being settled with bitcoins will be more difficult. At the current levels people will become very careful with taking any bet on how the bitcoin is going to evolve in the future. Imagine you buy some goods for bitcoins in 6 months time, but the price is going to double again? There is a lot of risk involved with the high volatility.

[LoyceV]

20-21 institutions started getting interested.

In Rodrigue's "phases of a bubble" chart, that puts us only at the beginning:

[franky1]

20-21 institutions started getting interested.

In Rodrigue's "phases of a bubble" chart, that puts us only at the beginning:

seems you are living up to your reputation ..
you chose a graph that depicts language to suggest bitcoin is a common stage of a bubble...

hmm. now i wonder why you chose to push a agenda that bitcoin is a bubble...

.. oh wait i remember your a LN fangirl.  you support the public use of other networks for greed..

well then following your logic and agenda.. the  'public phase' (the bubble) is the public being pushed into the insecure altnetwork known as LN

so have fun with your greed and delusions and denial...(LN stage)

il just continue supporting bitcoin. that will continue on(the mean) once people have wised up to the LN issues

[LoyceV]

to suggest bitcoin is a common stage of a bubble...

Bitcoin has been through many bubbles. Did you not see the "Mean" in this graph? It fits Bitcoin very well!

.. oh wait i remember your a LN fangirl.  you support the public use of other networks for greed..

Lol, now you're just being childish. Can't you leave your hatred for LN out of any post?

[yhiaali3]

I think, according to my opinion, the year 2021-2022 will be the year of Bitcoin prosperity, we will witness great historical peaks for Bitcoin, the adoption of Bitcoin by large institutions and the acceptance of Bitcoin as a way to pay and transfer money and also the expansion of Bitcoin around the world, in the later stage we may witness the transformation of Bitcoin into a global currency instead of the dollar. .
Meanwhile, Bitcoin may be increasingly opposed by governments and central banks, there will be a great struggle, but I am confident that Bitcoin will ultimately succeed.

[Poker Player]

I was just thinking about what might be the "Phases of Bitcoin".    Feel free to put your own opinions here on what phases bitcoin is going through.

-snip

OP, where are you quoting that from? I have seen that somewhere or at least it was something similar. Well, it seems quite right when describing the past but we'll see if Phase D comes to fruition. In any case, if it becomes the International Trade Currency, replacing the USD, will mean a substantial change in the world economic system. Something similar to what happened in 1971, but in this case more positive for the majority of the population.

[Natsuu]

to suggest bitcoin is a common stage of a bubble...

Bitcoin has been through many bubbles. Did you not see the "Mean" in this graph? It fits Bitcoin very well!

I will side with LoyceV with this one, as there has been many scenarios of bitcoin being a bubble, and what's happening right now doesn't remove that fact. And yes, the graph fits perfectly, but I thing something might change if and only if people are prepared for unexpected scenarios in BTC so that they won't get spooked or feared by the sudden change in prices.

[franky1]

to suggest bitcoin is a common stage of a bubble...

Bitcoin has been through many bubbles. Did you not see the "Mean" in this graph? It fits Bitcoin very well!

I will side with LoyceV with this one, as there has been many scenarios of bitcoin being a bubble, and what's happening right now doesn't remove that fact. And yes, the graph fits perfectly, but I thing something might change if and only if people are prepared for unexpected scenarios in BTC so that they won't get spooked or feared by the sudden change in prices.

hundreds of years ago the tulip bubble was because tulips were priced at several hundred times higher than other regions valued it.

yep traders from other regions came in .. got handed a tulip and thought it was valueless because in their home area even poor people were growing them for pennies. and the tulip mania regions bubble burst

so lets just make one more point about 'price bubble' which you are concentrating on
bitcoin is international.  its not at different prices in different regions.. so isnt like a price bubble of tulip mania...
yes there are known underlying values of bitcoin (eg: mining) and yes speculative price is about 2.5x higher. and so inflated. .. but thats not to say bitcoin as a whole concept is a bubble. its saying the price when over inflated is a bubble.

as for this topics 'concept/phases/stages' of bitcoin. (fundementals not price)
loyceV is trying to show a concept of the entire bitcoin network/protocol is just inflated vapourware. meaning bitcoin will fail as a project..

there are many charts depicting different events. but Loyce chose this particular one that depicts a 700% bubble followed by a crash far below the early adopter stage.
very revealing why out of all economic models that exist he chose that specific one

he is not a person that is a fan of bitcoin(he might have been years ago). he has made many attempts recently in many topics to make people not want to use bitcoin and instead move to another network.

the phases of bitcoin is about the concept/protocol. not the price.

so yea loyceV can play his agenda games to diss/insult and say bitcoin is not a good payment system. loyce can try promote LN all he likes..

but ill jsut stay along the 'mean' line and hope once loyceV's influencers go full altnet and leave bitcoin. it can then let bitcoin grow progressively while they play on their alts(sooner the better)

[BADecker]

The Phases/Stages Of Bitcoin


Wrong title. Should be The Phages/Stooges Of Bitcoin... referring to the altcoins, and the fact that Bitcoin will outlive fiat.