2021-03-22 yahoo! - 'Bitcoin Winter' Could Last For Years After Price Hits $300k

[slaman29]

I watched a little bit of Bobby Lee before and I actually read some of his quotes from this article but sorry to say, it was a very poor piece. He was like explaining what a crypto winter was, and cycles in Bitcoin, and just looking very amateur with his predictions.

Not saying I could be better than him but you should expect more than moonboi readings from a professional timeslot like this. By the way, 90% price drop from $300,000 means we go the lowest at $30,000. How nice:)

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[Betwrong]

~

I am very skeptical. It would take more institutional investors to pump bitcoin to $300k and it would also take those institutional investors to hold bitcoin after the bubble bursts. However, I predict that it will be those institutional investors who bursts the bubble and it will also be some of them that causes a 3 year bitcoin winter because of short selling.

I understand your skepticism. I myself don't think we are going to hit $300k this year, nor do I think that $200k is something we can bet on. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, there will be no "bitcoin winter" lasting for 3 years, like it used to be. If BTC crashes from today's price to some "bottom", it will bounce from there within a year, thanks to some event, and a new ATH will be reached.

[DapanasFruit]

Well, all I can say is that predicting what can happen to Bitcoin is always a risky business. Having the credential to have predicted one trend does not mean that all predictions a person may spew will really happen. How many times has Bitcoin proved its critics and supporters alike? Many, many times. Bitcoin can be a strange beast and although there are certainly historical patterns under its sleeves, there are times when Bitcoin is not following those patterns to the T. Anyway, it is always good to reminded that not all can stay rising - much more a digital asset like Bitcoin which, according to a legendary investor, is producing nothing at all.

[decodx]

I've been monitoring the price of Bitcoin closely for a while and have tried to see all possible outcomes of the whole crypto-crazy event we're experiencing. I can see Bitcoin rising to that $90,000-$100,000 level, which should happen in the short term at least.

We'll see the price of Bitcoin almost doubling over the next year, and I don't see it falling into any major decline.

It's still a great investment in my opinion.

[Betwrong]

I've been monitoring the price of Bitcoin closely for a while and have tried to see all possible outcomes of the whole crypto-crazy event we're experiencing. I can see Bitcoin rising to that $90,000-$100,000 level, which should happen in the short term at least.

We'll see the price of Bitcoin almost doubling over the next year, and I don't see it falling into any major decline.

It's still a great investment in my opinion.

Seeing how events are unfolding, I start thinking that we may never see the 'Bitcoin Winter' as we imagined it. After BTC hit $35k, many were predicting a period of correction ahead, and yet we are at $58k+ today.

It's possible that Bobby Lee from the OP is right about "$300,000 in the current bull market", and then BTC may go down to $100k, and stay there for some time, and that would be our 'Bitcoin Winter'.

[acquafredda]

No one has got the magic crystal ball needed to predict the future. I feel quite happy knowing that bitcoin will keep runing as it is doing right now, it will surely appreciate in the future given that the world is recognizing some value in it, not just in monetary terms but also at a techlogy and network level.
Therefore, right now, fin by me. If a crypto winter will come, so be it. I will buy more.

[aoluain]

I've been monitoring the price of Bitcoin closely for a while and have tried to see all possible outcomes of the whole crypto-crazy event we're experiencing. I can see Bitcoin rising to that $90,000-$100,000 level, which should happen in the short term at least.

We'll see the price of Bitcoin almost doubling over the next year, and I don't see it falling into any major decline.

It's still a great investment in my opinion.

Seeing how events are unfolding, I start thinking that we may never see the 'Bitcoin Winter' as we imagined it. After BTC hit $35k, many were predicting a period of correction ahead, and yet we are at $58k+ today.

It's possible that Bobby Lee from the OP is right about "$300,000 in the current bull market", and then BTC may go down to $100k, and stay there for some time, and that would be our 'Bitcoin Winter'.

There have been some others who say the same, there may not be a "Bitcoin Winter" at all.

Just because it happened in 2017 to 2018 doesnt mean it will happen again.

Sure there will be a big correction at $100k and $200k for example but not to the same extent
as before. its a different market now with a greater mix of investors who hopefully see the
power in the future.

[DaveF]

I kind of get what he is saying. If it does run up that high, how many people are just going to take a massive profit and walk away to retire and not worry about it.
You might (will?) loose a lot of people who are now set for life and not coming back into the game. At that point it takes a while to get more money into it. Especially if you say hit $200k and now it's back to $60k How long will it take for new people to but enough to get the price back up.

Not for nothing at $200k all you are going to see of me is taillights fading into the distance.

-Dave

[aoluain]

Its something that could come to pass for sure but the vast majority of people
done own at least 1 Bitcoin so for them $300k may not be "life changing"

This chart is from last year but it gives an indication of amounts of Bitcoin in
certain wallets

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Also if people decide to cash out they will have a massive TAX liability and could
loose a big percentage to governments.

and the balance after TAX, where do you put it? in a bank?

[Argoo]

If there is going to be a long winter for bitcoin market when it reached the 300k USD point then I think that it is a good thing for many people because it means that it will be an opportunity to buy more bitcoin and accumulate more in the process and considering that bitcoin can bounce back and have its price go higher than it was expected, I think that enduring this winter is going to be fruitful for those who will do so.

At the same time, one circumstance should be taken into account. If bitcoin rises in price to $ 300,000, and then drops very much in price, say, like in 2018 - by 70 percent, then its price will be $ 90,000. This is also a very high price for it. However, how many bitcoin holders will suffer direct material damage. In my opinion, those who want to invest in bitcoin with its next price increase, especially when it picks up a high price again, will be significantly reduced.
In addition, with a significant price drop in bitcoin crypto winter may not be. Some altcoins, even in this situation, will be able to develop and grow in value. The situation on the cryptocurrency market is constantly changing. It seems to me that over time, bitcoin's rigid price dominance over altcoins will weaken. The cryptocurrency market will become more and more mature.

[Betwrong]

I kind of get what he is saying. If it does run up that high, how many people are just going to take a massive profit and walk away to retire and not worry about it.
You might (will?) loose a lot of people who are now set for life and not coming back into the game. At that point it takes a while to get more money into it. Especially if you say hit $200k and now it's back to $60k How long will it take for new people to but enough to get the price back up.

Not for nothing at $200k all you are going to see of me is taillights fading into the distance.

-Dave

It depends on how much potential Bitcoin users is still not in the business. According to various reports , around 100 million people are now using cryptocurrencies. Can we move to a billion users? I think we can, but not overnight, of course, it can take years. ... And then, even if we'll lose 90% of the current users, we can still have more of them than we have today.

[Theb]

With what he said I think we can all agree that it is possible that the next bear cycle can last in years proving that is what happened to Bitcoin after December 2017 when we have experienced 18+ months long bear season. I know a lot of you will be talking about the new wave of big companies buying in their own Bitcoin but does that make the crypto market immune to a bear season? Of course not big companies and institutional investors have been in the stock market for years now but it doesn't make the stock market immune to any bear season and that is a fact. Simple more money pouring in the market right now will just make Bitcoin's fall a big thing when these companies have locked their sights on profit taking. Lets not be negative or positive about these news but let as simply look at the facts here.

[bryant.coleman]

It is funny to see that these Bitcoin haters are getting really desperate. Think about this - they don't want to mention the fact even as per their calculation, the exchange rates are likely to rise to $300,000 (from the current level of $60,000). It is laughable that they are talking about the small correction which can occur after the prices increase by 400%. Ideally the title should be like this: "Bobby Lee claims that Bitcoin will reach $300K soon!"

[bbc.reporter]

With what he said I think we can all agree that it is possible that the next bear cycle can last in years proving that is what happened to Bitcoin after December 2017 when we have experienced 18+ months long bear season. I know a lot of you will be talking about the new wave of big companies buying in their own Bitcoin but does that make the crypto market immune to a bear season? Of course not big companies and institutional investors have been in the stock market for years now but it doesn't make the stock market immune to any bear season and that is a fact. Simple more money pouring in the market right now will just make Bitcoin's fall a big thing when these companies have locked their sights on profit taking. Lets not be negative or positive about these news but let as simply look at the facts here.

The entry of institutional investors also makes the market very dangerous for small holders. The bitcoin market will become their playground. Similar to how they pumped bitcoin, I speculate that they will also dump bitcoin and tops and bottoms might be bigger with more volatility.

[Betwrong]

With what he said I think we can all agree that it is possible that the next bear cycle can last in years proving that is what happened to Bitcoin after December 2017 when we have experienced 18+ months long bear season. I know a lot of you will be talking about the new wave of big companies buying in their own Bitcoin but does that make the crypto market immune to a bear season? Of course not big companies and institutional investors have been in the stock market for years now but it doesn't make the stock market immune to any bear season and that is a fact. Simple more money pouring in the market right now will just make Bitcoin's fall a big thing when these companies have locked their sights on profit taking. Lets not be negative or positive about these news but let as simply look at the facts here.

If all of them at once decided to take profits, that would be followed by a big crash in price, that's for sure. But the question is, why would they do that? Isn't taking profits slowly, a piece after piece, more rational? I even suspect they are doing it already, but since they are doing it slowly, they are not crashing the market along the way.

[acquafredda]

With what he said I think we can all agree that it is possible that the next bear cycle can last in years proving that is what happened to Bitcoin after December 2017 when we have experienced 18+ months long bear season. I know a lot of you will be talking about the new wave of big companies buying in their own Bitcoin but does that make the crypto market immune to a bear season? Of course not big companies and institutional investors have been in the stock market for years now but it doesn't make the stock market immune to any bear season and that is a fact. Simple more money pouring in the market right now will just make Bitcoin's fall a big thing when these companies have locked their sights on profit taking. Lets not be negative or positive about these news but let as simply look at the facts here.

The entry of institutional investors also makes the market very dangerous for small holders. The bitcoin market will become their playground. Similar to how they pumped bitcoin, I speculate that they will also dump bitcoin and tops and bottoms might be bigger with more volatility.

I tend to have a similar stance since a while: it looks like they are waiting to be all loaded and ready for a big mass market retaliation. Imagine if they start shaking the tree to scare all the newcomers off the smallest branches while they keep their accumulation big and corner the market.
It would be a big problem and this is not sci-fi.

[bbc.reporter]

@acquafredda. This can be blamed partly because of the monetary supply of bitcoin. It incentivizes hoarding and the early adopters who hoarded them first would have an unfair economic advantage and influence over the newcomers. Hoarding is also causes centralization pressure.

[Karartma1]

How many early adopters do you think are still out there who have kept the majority of their coins? I don't agree with you because coins have spread so much after 2014.
I don't see this centralization you are seeing and it's actually good that those who hoard now are doing that seeing the big picture.
my 2 sats

[Oceat]

It's just right to have a limited numbers of coins because I believe this is enough as a balance if someone who has a huge number of Bitcoin starting to sell, probably there's enough people who can accumulate that and it's a great thing since someone is in possession of their coins.

I don't know if exchanges could last if almost everyone starting to dump, I mean those whale starting to dump but why would they do that? And if the OP is right there's a big possiblity here that the bear market will tend to last longer if the price reaches six digits.

[bbc.reporter]

How many early adopters do you think are still out there who have kept the majority of their coins? I don't agree with you because coins have spread so much after 2014.
I don't see this centralization you are seeing and it's actually good that those who hoard now are doing that seeing the big picture.
my 2 sats

You do not consider Elon Musk, Michael Saylor and the other institutional investors to be part of the early adopters? They are certainly not part of the late adopters. Also, would you tell me that the distribution since 2014 is fair or there exists whales in the ecosystem?