2021-03-22 yahoo! - 'Bitcoin Winter' Could Last For Years After Price Hits $300k

[acquafredda]

@acquafredda. This can be blamed partly because of the monetary supply of bitcoin. It incentivizes hoarding and the early adopters who hoarded them first would have an unfair economic advantage and influence over the newcomers. Hoarding is also causes centralization pressure.

On the contrary, I believe that most ingenious part of bitcoin is the mechanism by which its monetary supply works. I mean, no point in arguing about this as if you do not accept the economics behind it and you may probably miss one of the reason why bitcoin is such valuable right now.
Rather than focusing on hoarding, I would focus on the time preference as, clearly, bitcoiners have a completely different time preference than the majority out there. I do not see that as bad, really.

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[bbc.reporter]

@acquafredda. I am not talking about bitcoin’s success as a speculative asset or commodity. It has become successful in that way. However, as a currency, I reckon it is not because of its volatility that is higher than the prices of items to buy.

Also, I accept the economics behind bitcoin. Am I rejecting it when I say that its monetary policy encourages hoarding?

[Streets 2.0]

I think trying to analyze the cryptocurrency market in terms of classical fundamental or technical analysis that they apply to regular markets is wrong. The point is that since the last time everything grew (4 years ago), a lot has changed, people have begun to understand more about the blockchain, investors have stopped treating bitcoin as some kind of wild thing with incomprehensible content. There have been countless conferences and other gatherings of economists - so this approach to analyzing the future is unlikely to be correct.

[pixie85]

It's true. If we go exponential and hit 300 thousand in a year we could overextend so much from the ribbon that it would take us years to go back down to retest the lows.

The lows right now are probably somewhere at 20 thousand. If went up by 100 thousand from here we'd have to lose all that value somewhere and it wouldn't be fast, it's just impossible to deflate so much in a short time.

The bear markets are also getting longer. If we needed 2 years in the past we could need 3 next time. I don't think we'll go as high in this cycle. 100 thousand would already be a huge milestone. I don't see how we could triple it in one and the same bull run that took us above 20 thousand.

[Argoo]

It's true. If we go exponential and hit 300 thousand in a year we could overextend so much from the ribbon that it would take us years to go back down to retest the lows.

The lows right now are probably somewhere at 20 thousand. If went up by 100 thousand from here we'd have to lose all that value somewhere and it wouldn't be fast, it's just impossible to deflate so much in a short time.

The bear markets are also getting longer. If we needed 2 years in the past we could need 3 next time. I don't think we'll go as high in this cycle. 100 thousand would already be a huge milestone. I don't see how we could triple it in one and the same bull run that took us above 20 thousand.

Such a long winter is unlikely, but such a turn of events cannot be ruled out either. Although the last months can be called a triumphant procession in the price of bitcoin, which has risen from $ 20,000 to over $ 60,000, I think that the higher the price of bitcoin rises, the more difficult this process will be to move. People will be afraid of losing their large amounts of cryptocurrency and react more to various negative information about cryptocurrency.
 At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is developing rapidly and, most importantly, its users are gaining the necessary experience. Therefore, what happened before may not be repeated in this market, or it may happen in a different way.

[Dilerium90]

Despite predicting that Bitcoin price will rise to $300,000 in the current bull market, Bobby Lee, founder of BTCC exchange, believes that crypto markets could spend years in decline after the market reaches its peak.

What Happened: “Bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” said Lee who co-founded UK-based cryptocurrency exchange BTCC in an interview with CNBC earlier today.

According to him, the market-leading cryptocurrency is likely to reach $100,000 this summer and may even reach $300,000 if historical cycles were to repeat.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-winter-could-last-years-171101499.html

This is a very interesting one: Bobby lee is not some stupid commentator but someone who predicted earlier than other the huge institutional boost before others did? What do you guys think about his take on a possible forthcoming crypto winter? Is that likely?

Looking at how big players and top funds are actively buying bitcoin at  40-55 thousand dollars, I am inclined to believe that we can actually see $ 100,000 - $ 300,000 for one bitcoin by the end of autumn and the bull cycle can last longer than everyone expects.

[cr1776]

Despite predicting that Bitcoin price will rise to $300,000 in the current bull market, Bobby Lee, founder of BTCC exchange, believes that crypto markets could spend years in decline after the market reaches its peak.

What Happened: “Bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” said Lee who co-founded UK-based cryptocurrency exchange BTCC in an interview with CNBC earlier today.

According to him, the market-leading cryptocurrency is likely to reach $100,000 this summer and may even reach $300,000 if historical cycles were to repeat.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-winter-could-last-years-171101499.html

This is a very interesting one: Bobby lee is not some stupid commentator but someone who predicted earlier than other the huge institutional boost before others did? What do you guys think about his take on a possible forthcoming crypto winter? Is that likely?

Looking at how big players and top funds are actively buying bitcoin at  40-55 thousand dollars, I am inclined to believe that we can actually see $ 100,000 - $ 300,000 for one bitcoin by the end of autumn and the bull cycle can last longer than everyone expects.

I agree with you, particularly given the number of US corporate buyers who could potentially enter the market, no to mention non US companies, let alone a potential ETF. The available bitcoin is so limited that an increase in demand like that would impact the fiat price significantly.

[Streets 2.0]

I think these articles in the media have only one purpose. Their goal is to ensure that faith in bitcoin does not grow stronger, but rather diminishes. The United States is a country where the Federal Reserve, disguised as a central bank (but in fact a private bank) issues the US dollar. And the people who control this emission are not at all interested in the development of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general. They need, ideally, to discredit the very sphere of cryptocurrency in order for people to continue to trust ordinary money.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

I think these articles in the media have only one purpose. Their goal is to ensure that faith in bitcoin does not grow stronger, but rather diminishes. The United States is a country where the Federal Reserve, disguised as a central bank (but in fact a private bank) issues the US dollar. And the people who control this emission are not at all interested in the development of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general. They need, ideally, to discredit the very sphere of cryptocurrency in order for people to continue to trust ordinary money.

I think that it's got a point though because if we reach that price point, I am sure that people will probably sell their bitcoin continuously and the drop in prices wouldn't much which in turn will cause the prices to slump continuously. And in my opinion, at that point, I don't think that faith is going to waver since bitcoin reached that point.

[willoweb]

I have great doubts that there are any prerequisites for predicting such growth in the near future, including this entire year. The last two weeks have shown how quickly and because of what essentially insignificant events (from a technical point of view) the bitcoin price and the market can fall after it. One statement by the President of the USA to raise taxes for wealthy Americans provoked another downward spurt of the market, although not a word was directly said about cryptocurrency. All this suggests how fragile the structure on which the market relies is.

[bbc.reporter]

@ willoweb. I agree that there might be some big whales who might be trying to sell their coins first because they might be speculating some negative regulatory development, however, it can also be argued that they are also only overreacting from what might not become approved into law.

[Argoo]

It seems to me that with the further increase in the price of bitcoin, it will become more and more difficult for him to do this. After all, the risk of losing invested capital will increase if the price of bitcoin falls. If people see another big drop in the price of bitcoin, as it was in 2018, then they are unlikely to invest in it next time when it rises high in price again.
In addition, the cycles in terms of the depth of the fall and its duration in time will not necessarily repeat even with approximate accuracy. Altcoins are developing very actively now and they will also influence the further movement of the market, despite the state of bitcoin.

[Sithara007]

I think these articles in the media have only one purpose. Their goal is to ensure that faith in bitcoin does not grow stronger, but rather diminishes. The United States is a country where the Federal Reserve, disguised as a central bank (but in fact a private bank) issues the US dollar. And the people who control this emission are not at all interested in the development of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general. They need, ideally, to discredit the very sphere of cryptocurrency in order for people to continue to trust ordinary money.

Well.. if that was the intention, then I have to say that they terribly failed in it. On one hand, they are saying that Bitcoin can go up to $300,000, when the current exchange rates are fluctuating at $50,000-$55,000 levels. So according to them, very soon there will be a 5x-6x increase in the exchange rates. The correction is going to occur after that. Intelligent investors will concentrate on the initial part of their statement, because that is going to occur first.

[acquafredda]

The thing is that is now clear more than ever that we have a few very strong crypto influencers who are very much able to let the price swing in one way or the other: Saylor, Musk, Novogratz, CZ, etc. can say things that normal folks will take like words from the gods and hence we have wild fluctuations on the market. This shows two things: 1 we can still grow much higher 2 the market is still very immature after all these years!

[Streets 2.0]

Bitcoin is growing 7% today. This means that if its growth continues, then within the next month it will be able to fully return all the losses that it suffered due to the negative news background and the correction will remain in the past. The bullish trend will again dominate the market. However, I do not think that this year we will see some kind of rapid growth that can reach such high rates. I think the growth will be gradual and periodic correction is inevitable.

[Sithara007]

Bitcoin is growing 7% today. This means that if its growth continues, then within the next month it will be able to fully return all the losses that it suffered due to the negative news background and the correction will remain in the past. The bullish trend will again dominate the market. However, I do not think that this year we will see some kind of rapid growth that can reach such high rates. I think the growth will be gradual and periodic correction is inevitable.

Bitcoin prices are going up. But a worrying sign for me is that the altcoin prices are going up at a faster rate. And when useless shitcoins can have tens of billions of USD in market capitalization, that is a massive red flag, and the first indication that the bubble is going to burst sometime soon. XRP is back to the previous levels despite no final decision on their lawsuit with SEC, while Doge has gone up by almost 100x in the last 6 months.

[Saint-loup]

Bitcoin is growing 7% today. This means that if its growth continues, then within the next month it will be able to fully return all the losses that it suffered due to the negative news background and the correction will remain in the past. The bullish trend will again dominate the market. However, I do not think that this year we will see some kind of rapid growth that can reach such high rates. I think the growth will be gradual and periodic correction is inevitable.

The bullish trend will again dominate the market? I'm sorry but there isn't any bullish trend since several months now. Bitcoin was already above 50 000$ in February (2021), and we are in May now. In my opinion we are in a Wyckoff cycle of distribution and we can face a downtrend aka Phase E now.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Bitcoin is growing 7% today. This means that if its growth continues, then within the next month it will be able to fully return all the losses that it suffered due to the negative news background and the correction will remain in the past. The bullish trend will again dominate the market. However, I do not think that this year we will see some kind of rapid growth that can reach such high rates. I think the growth will be gradual and periodic correction is inevitable.

The bullish trend will again dominate the market? I'm sorry but there isn't any bullish trend since several months now. Bitcoin was already above 50 000$ in February (2021), and we are in May now. In my opinion we are in a Wyckoff cycle of distribution and we can face a downtrend aka Phase E now.

Almost the exact pattern was present in 2017 as well, and we know what happened after April that year. There are several factors that should contribute to the Bitcoin bull rally in the coming months. Joe Biden administration has announced a magnificent $6 trillion spending plan, which I would say is the best thing ever to happen to Bitcoin during the last 12 years. And in the background, the user base is continuously growing at a steady pace and the same can be said about the institutional investors.

[Streets 2.0]

I would not compare April 2017 with the current situation. Since then, a lot has changed, what was before really looked like a bubble caused by a big hype in the world media. We do not see such a picture at the moment. The market cannot be called calm either, but there is no such explosive growth or decline. Volatility has gotten better trading volumes on exchanges have grown as well as the number of market participants. I don't think the situation will repeat itself.

[Saint-loup]

Bitcoin is growing 7% today. This means that if its growth continues, then within the next month it will be able to fully return all the losses that it suffered due to the negative news background and the correction will remain in the past. The bullish trend will again dominate the market. However, I do not think that this year we will see some kind of rapid growth that can reach such high rates. I think the growth will be gradual and periodic correction is inevitable.

The bullish trend will again dominate the market? I'm sorry but there isn't any bullish trend since several months now. Bitcoin was already above 50 000$ in February (2021), and we are in May now. In my opinion we are in a Wyckoff cycle of distribution and we can face a downtrend aka Phase E now.

Almost the exact pattern was present in 2017 as well, and we know what happened after April that year. There are several factors that should contribute to the Bitcoin bull rally in the coming months. Joe Biden administration has announced a magnificent $6 trillion spending plan, which I would say is the best thing ever to happen to Bitcoin during the last 12 years. And in the background, the user base is continuously growing at a steady pace and the same can be said about the institutional investors.

Joe Biden can create inflation of money supply and prices, it will just initiate a devaluation of the US dollar at the end. So who cares if Bitcoin price goes up in worthless USD if it doesn't rise in the other fiat currencies and against commodities? If we want to see this kind of artificial rising we can already look at its price in turkish lira or venezuelan bolivar.