Why you don't need to HODL or trade Bitcoin

[Anrix2036]

I want to share some thoughts about the reasons why HODLing Bitcoin is risky, and why you don't need to build any TA strategies for trading Bitcoin.

First: why not to HODL Bitcoin?
HODLing require from you to hold long position for years. You assume that the price will go up long-term. But why it should go up? General reason for that assumption is that many and many people, enthusiasts, developers, investors, organizations of the whole world get to recognize Bitcoin more. This results to encreasing money flow and price. But in essence, what Bitcoin exactly can give? Of course, decentralizaton, self emission, a bit privacy. But Bitcoin lack some features, that other cryptocurrencies have. Bitcoin can't give people enough transaction speed and convinience. Bitcoin can't give developers convinient methods to build applications. Bitcoin can't help organizations and investors get rid of the fear that this is all just a bubble.
Bitcoin is important step to revolution of the whole financial system, but not the last. It exists now, because not many people understand that Bitcoin is relic of the past. Ethereum is much more promising than Bitcoin with it's smart-contracts. HODL Ethereum not Bitcoin, when the disaster comes, Bitcoin won't survive.

Second: why not to trade Bitcoin?
How are you predict price of Bitcoin? TA indicators?
Ranges? Support/Resistance? Price action? Candle patterns?
We all know about bad statistic of these tools. Almost anyone can't say why they using RSI, MACD, MA, CCI, Bollinger bands and other indicators. Why tringle pattern should end in desired direction? How these tools can help you predict, statistically unpredictible price? Price doesn't owe you something.
Price drives by big speculators, sharks, whales, market makers and other monsters of crypto ocean. They are trying to eat each other. Doesn't you noticed that Bitcoin pumps when new antminer ASICs are sold? You think that Elon Musk that smart to buy Bitcoin? He's smarter! Hype of Bitcoin is rising, why not to sell Tesla cars for Bitcoin?
But just a quick and realistic glance at the Bitcoin price chart of last several months gives clear vision of situation:PUMP!. And what happens after pump? Have someone an answer? Sit down, take A+, of course a DUMP!
You need to have insider info. With that, you'll get more chances. Or be the shark, while this almost impossible.
You can keep trading TA of course, scalping works in every market. But how many succeded traders do you know? Those youtubers? They get money from traffic, adverticement and affiliate programs, not from your success.
If you don't beleave in the future of cryptocurrencies, just want to earn some paper money, then HODL Ethereum or speculate with top altcoins with high liquidity and volatility.

Tell me your opinion.

Edit;
For better understanding of topic, you need to read all replies, cause there are some clarifications regarding this topic.

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[Hamphser]

Bitcoin is important step to revolution of the whole financial system, but not the last. It exists now, because not many people understand that Bitcoin is relic of the past. Ethereum is much more promising than Bitcoin with it's smart-contracts. HODL Ethereum not Bitcoin, when the disaster comes, Bitcoin won't survive.

Seeing Bitcoin to be like this? Then why you are here on a Bitcoin forum in the first place?

If you do believe that ETH is much better than Bitcoin then we do respect that but doesnt mean that those words of yours would really be typically able to convince out people who had been
supporting and having positive views about bitcoin potential in longer aspect.

Imagine on how people had made out money specially to those early adopters? Consider on how far we've able to reach when it comes to price?
Imagine on how far we've able to reach out when it comes to real life adoption?

[Ryker1]

Well, your opinion is totally ^[BS].
Both of them have potential when we talk about holding assets but when we talk about decentralization, I believe bitcoin has a fully decentralized than Ethereum. Tell me --in which aspect ethereum surpass bitcoin? Give me at least 5 reasons then you will convince me not to hold bitcoin if not, this is a nonsense statement. In fact, the ethereum price swing towards the bitcoin price movement.

[Anrix2036]

Well, your opinion is totally [BS].

How kind of you.

Both of them have potential when we talk about holding assets but when we talk about decentralization, I believe bitcoin has a fully decentralized than Ethereum.

As i can see you don't know what decentralization it is. Bitcoin network became more centralized than before cause of ASIC miners. And you know where ASICs can be produced cheaply? This is China my friend. Ethereum is ASIC-resistant for decentralization. So, Bitcoin is more decentralized than Ethereum, is total nonsense.

Give me at least 5 reasons then you will convince me not to hold bitcoin if not, this is a nonsense statement.

Here you are:
1. Ethereum is faster:
Transaction verifications are prossesed in 10 seconds, as opposed to 10 minutes in Bitcoin.
2. Switch to proof of stake over proof of work carries many technical advantages.
3. Smart contracts are more productive than transactions in Bitcoin.
4. Ethereum's dApps open a new possibility of edge computing.
5. Ethereum is more decentralized.

Bonus:
Ethereum network allows developers to build complex applications, many inovative projects are running on Ethereum network. You always can google it.

[boyptc]

this is all just a bubble.

I've heard of it many times and it even came from popular people of the world. Telling that bitcoin is just a bubble seems to be an understatement and no one would believe in it anymore unless it comes from an "expert" in economics that really don't like bitcoin.

So if bitcoin is just a bubble.

What's with alts?

[lalabotax]

Well, Bitcoin and Ethereum are promising cryptos. And if we can get profits and trust both, why not?
Holding is about trust. I am personally one of them. Buying the Bitcoin when the market is already down to bearish market someday and then hold it for several years. Why do I do this? because I believe in Bitcoin. and I am ready for the risks, whatever it is. That is why it is better to hold however the amount that we can afford to lose. And I am sure that Bitcoin will have another chance to better and better price again in the future.
And why we are trading Bitcoin? because there is sometimes significant down and rise price in the market and we can take the chance to get profits from this.

[Anrix2036]

this is all just a bubble.

I've heard of it many times and it even came from popular people of the world. Telling that bitcoin is just a bubble seems to be an understatement and no one would believe in it anymore unless it comes from an "expert" in economics that really don't like bitcoin.

So if bitcoin is just a bubble.

What's with alts?

I'm not talking that Bitcoin is a bubble, i also dislike when people talking that crypto is a bubble, i'm trying to say that Bitcoin is not perfect. Satoshi can't see the future, he pushed us further to the future of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is just not ideal, Ethereum is natural continue of crypto world, Ethereum not ideal too, but it have more promising future. I love altcoins when we talk about speculation, there are interesting projects aswell.

[Anrix2036]

I think a big mistake that people do, when looking on Bitcoin, is only profit. There is nothing bad about it, we all need money. But Satoshi Nakamoto doesn't made money machine so everyone can get rich, Bitcoin is money itself. I just want people to understand why he bringed this technology. Bitcoin is very successive experiment, it showed us that we can put our trust to cryptography, decentralized public ledger that we call blockchain. Amazing innovation that early adopters bringed to the masses. But cryptocurrencies need to evolve further, while we looking only on price, developers and programmers from around the world giving new technologies based on Satoshi's ideas. Do your own research, look at the Bitcoin deeper, at Ethereum, at any other cryptocurrency, if you want to be on the wave of crypto technologies, you need to be more inovative, always reconsider your opinion, as Satoshi do, back in the 2008.

[GreatArkansas]

Another question on my mind is, "Why these big companies recently, not bought Ethereum? Why they bought only BItcoin and added to their balance sheet, and most of them gonna HODL for the long term".

I am not hater of Ethereum, but what is on my mind is Bitcoin already proven to hold and manage to transaction huge amount of money, it can transfer millions of USD with a very cheap transaction fee in just short period of time.

[Anrix2036]

Another question on my mind is, "Why these big companies recently, not bought Ethereum? Why they bought only BItcoin and added to their balance sheet, and most of them gonna HODL for the long term".

I am not hater of Ethereum, but what is on my mind is Bitcoin already proven to hold and manage to transaction huge amount of money, it can transfer millions of USD with a very cheap transaction fee in just short period of time.

Why big companies not bought Ethereum you ask... Hmm... Because they already bought it. Ethereum encreased in price aswell as Bitcoin, they just diversify their money, but put more in Bitcoin because it's the mainstream.
Bitcoin can't handle many transactions, the volume doesn't matter, send you 1$ or 1$ million. The number of users of Bitcoin network is encreasing, the quantity of transactions are also encreasing, that is the matter.
Big players on Bitcoin market initiate any big move. You really thinking that Bitcoin suddenly encreased in price because it's so valuable out of nothing? And then, when something happens with Bitcoin price, that is reflecting on price of other top cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the face of crypto market now, and cause of that other crypto tends to Bitcoin, like childs tends to their parents. But when they grew up, they are starting to live independenly, and in many aspects be better than their parents. Society is progressing like that, everything is progressing like that, new replace old. This is called evolution.
If you want to succeed, you need to be one step ahead of everyone, otherwise everyone will go far away, and left you out.

[mk4]

The classic "you can't do anything with Bitcoin" argument(besides sending/receiving). Sure, but you know why? Because the base layer of Bitcoin is totally focused on security and decentralization, which are totally essential characteristics for a good form of money, as you definitely wouldn't want Bitcoin to be having a lot of unnecessary experimental features.

On the other hand, "smart contract" platforms such as Ethereum and others pretty much follow a "move fast and break things" approach. Which is not necessarily bad, but ya know, just roll back the chain whenever something bad happens LOL.

Why big companies not bought Ethereum you ask... Hmm... Because they already bought it.

sure lol.

[crwth]

So technically, you are also suggesting a different coin to HODL. Not Bitcoin but Ethereum? Don't you think that volatility is way better with BTC instead of other altcoins? The opportunity to profit would be significantly higher with altcoins instead of BTC but you are safer and have less risk compared to BTC because it's the main crypto and it could affect every coin out there.

Anyway, the best thing to consider is to know when there could be the top and possibly sell you HODL there and buy when it's low again. It's going to be like that continuously in this volatile market.

[boyptc]

this is all just a bubble.

I've heard of it many times and it even came from popular people of the world. Telling that bitcoin is just a bubble seems to be an understatement and no one would believe in it anymore unless it comes from an "expert" in economics that really don't like bitcoin.

So if bitcoin is just a bubble.

What's with alts?

I'm not talking that Bitcoin is a bubble, i also dislike when people talking that crypto is a bubble, i'm trying to say that Bitcoin is not perfect. Satoshi can't see the future, he pushed us further to the future of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is just not ideal, Ethereum is natural continue of crypto world, Ethereum not ideal too, but it have more promising future. I love altcoins when we talk about speculation, there are interesting projects aswell.

Yes, there are interesting projects.

But that's it, bitcoin is the firstborn and it's the most adopted and accepted crypto in the world. It wouldn't change the fact of what you're saying but that's it.

And another fact that all of the new coins including the older ones only took the idea of bitcoin.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

this is all just a bubble.

I've heard of it many times and it even came from popular people of the world. Telling that bitcoin is just a bubble seems to be an understatement and no one would believe in it anymore unless it comes from an "expert" in economics that really don't like bitcoin.

So if bitcoin is just a bubble.

What's with alts?

I'm not talking that Bitcoin is a bubble, i also dislike when people talking that crypto is a bubble, i'm trying to say that Bitcoin is not perfect. Satoshi can't see the future, he pushed us further to the future of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is just not ideal, Ethereum is natural continue of crypto world, Ethereum not ideal too, but it have more promising future. I love altcoins when we talk about speculation, there are interesting projects aswell.

How about the rising fees of Ethereum though? It's the same as bitcoin is experiencing in the last 4 years and yet the price seems to be going strong? And there are a lot of Ethereum competition right now, ADA, DOT and BNB trying to get a piece of the piece specially dapps. So you can say that it has promising future, but bitcoin will remain dominant.

[maxreish]

Both eth and bitcoin are worth to hold for long term. You buy them now, keep them and you will gain in time. Both are also risky, and there is nothing wrong if we rely on technical analysis, since we know we are in a crypto world where zigzag movements or volatile market do exists.

Come to think of it,  no bitcoin=no altcoins=no ethereum. So, its unreasonable to just advice to not invest in btc but into eth. We have different perspective of views when it comes to which one we should invest.

[Anrix2036]

So technically, you are also suggesting a different coin to HODL. Not Bitcoin but Ethereum? Don't you think that volatility is way better with BTC instead of other altcoins?

For HODL, you don't think about volatility. It's long-term investment, your trust in the future of the asset.

But that's it, bitcoin is the firstborn and it's the most adopted and accepted crypto in the world. It wouldn't change the fact of what you're saying but that's it.

And another fact that all of the new coins including the older ones only took the idea of bitcoin.

Seashells were the firstborn, adopted, and accepted currency in history, aswell as, rice, silver, and gold. But this is not reject the fact that they have weaknesses, that in long-term, made them not valuable or practical. Paper money replaced gold cause of convinience. Cryptocurrencies is intended to replace fiat, but Bitcoin have long-term issues, that i described earlier.
There is nothing wrong to modificate ideas of Bitcoin to make better crypto.

So you can say that it has promising future, but bitcoin will remain dominant.

That everyone are just hyping now, doesn't mean it will remain dominant. Bitcoin is accumulating deep problems, that will break it in next 5 years or a bit more.

Come to think of it,  no bitcoin=no altcoins=no etherum.

What? Bitcoin can crash by itself due to issues i mentioned above. And price of Bitcoin doesn't reflect that. Price of any asset represents psychology of all participants in the market. Price is "strong" because everyone see it like this, and cause of that you can't predict the price. Can you predict people behaviour? And price cannot predict anything, just cause it looks "strong". But psychology can change, and you better be ready that dominance of Bitcoin will last not too long.

[Harlot]

If you go to the original post of HODL (where the word was coined) GameKyuubi never really mentioned any strategy when it comes to hodling but he just mentioned that he is a "bad trader" which only implies that he talking about Bitcoin as an investment he didn't even say how long he will hold Bitcoin so we really don't know if he is holding it for years. Secondly why do you think all you have said on Bitcoin doesn't apply on Ethereum both in trading and investing? ETH might be something that will be looked at by some old traders who already know what they are doing but obviously still all of the attention is on Bitcoin just think about what big names are focusing on through Bitcoin ETFs and now companies like Tesla and Microstrategy buying Bitcoin and nothing else, Bitcoin isn't really an "old relic" as it hasn't even reached its potential yet.

[Insanerman]

~
Tell me your opinion.

Another weakhand spotted LOL. I cannot blame you for having a negative impression towards Bitcoin yet I assure you that your points are wayy old and were already wrong in the current market situation. All crypto-fan always say to others that investing in crypto in general is risky, so do trading it. Yet you cannot just point out your ideas as it would all fall down to the fact that a user choses to invest/hold, regardless of the risk he/she already knew about. Yes, you can lose everything in investing on crypto, yet aren't you warned at the first place?

[Ridwan Fauzi]

Actually it depends on someone's strategy and knowledge, you can blame for someone who hold bitcoin for long term investment because he has understood how to manage bitcoin for long term investment. Also, the stragegy that will be used seem like will be different, most of long term hold will focus on fundamental analyst not TA. Maybe they will use technical analyst but they will use high time frame.

Also, You cannot justify someone who has a strategy for short term investments or day/swing trades. Sometimes this way can make you get a huge lose, remember low time frame can be manipulated easily by some whales. They will sell their bitcoin so as will make many people take a panic selling as a solution to safe their money but it is just for a while and the whales buy back at the lowe price. This is why there is no safe 100% when you choose long term and short term strategey.

[mindrust]

ETH shares the exact same on-chain problems as Bitcoin. If you think Bitcoin is outdated, then ETH also is. The thing is though, the only solution to their problems is reducing their decentralization levels. If you want them to be super fast and super cheap, then they need to be super centralized as well. You just cannot have all three.