Let us all together develop a Price Action Trading System for Bitcoin

[New.in.trading]

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

[1715124974]

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[1715124974]

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[1715124974]

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[New.in.trading]

Alright, welcome back!
Lets see what happened in BtcUsd in the last couple hours... Basically... nothing price did move, that is correct, but mostly to the right.

So the H4 area is still bearish and is still valid. its a little lame in the H4 atm, but without confirmations in the H4, its very risky to trade the M30:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HokMeFSS/

[New.in.trading]

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:



https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/

[New.in.trading]

Next Chapter ;-)

Maybe we get some longs soon, for btcusd, but ist a little early to say.

Everything should be visible in the screenshot here:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OTw7AW7/

[teosanru]

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:



https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/

Hey I have a very curious question here. I have gone through a few posts of yours the thing we are talking about is correctly represented by Elliot wave theory. What you are trying to do here is finding wave 3 which is the trend continuation wave after the pullback on wave 2. I can give you an addition here. Use Fibonacci here. Put the Fibonacci starting on the top of your H4 bear territory until the maximum low of that wave. the Pullback would be around the range of 0.5 to 0.638 on Fibonacci. You can set your entry within this area. This is pretty useful to find the end of the pullback.

Please correct me if I am wrong somewhere here because I have been doing this from a long time and it works in a decent manner.

[hulla]

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

[New.in.trading]

Lets get on with this!
As expected, price left that H4 Bull area, came back into it, and then left it again. That was the trigger for a long trade. Unfortunately, it got stopped out in the H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XkOkJKA/

Lets see the M30 then:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLY8OSXU/

[New.in.trading]

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

[New.in.trading]

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD, and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:

Hey I have a very curious question here. I have gone through a few posts of yours the thing we are talking about is correctly represented by Elliot wave theory. What you are trying to do here is finding wave 3 which is the trend continuation wave after the pullback on wave 2. I can give you an addition here. Use Fibonacci here. Put the Fibonacci starting on the top of your H4 bear territory until the maximum low of that wave. the Pullback would be around the range of 0.5 to 0.638 on Fibonacci. You can set your entry within this area. This is pretty useful to find the end of the pullback.

Please correct me if I am wrong somewhere here because I have been doing this from a long time and it works in a decent manner.

Hi and thanks for your opinion! I am not sure what you mean, to be honest. I read quite some books on EWT and also used to apply it on the charts. It turned out, finding the 3 was not best way, honestly, i used to look for a complete 5, then wait and trade the C of the correction. BUT: EW is only clear, when the move has been done. Until then, basically you are guessing if its an ABC correction, or an XYZ or a flat or running or whatever it might be. I am not saying it does not work. I am saying I could never make good use of it. And believe me, I tried. Hours and hours. Its simply not mine.
You can go down a snowy mountain multiple ways
1 Skiing
2 Snowboarding
3 Sledging
4 Walking
5 Sliding on your butt

There is no "Wrong" way. Only one that you prefer. EWT was never really mine, allthough I could see the patterns form and it made sense many times.

Entering on the 618 fib, only because its there, is not really a strategy for me. Where will you put the SL? Will you enter while price moves against you, or wait for a confirmation? how do you identify the trend in the first place? I am happy to hear the answers, as this might be implemented in this strategy, so I am really excited!

[hulla]

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc

This is the reason why a good enter/exit point with the inclusion of stop loss is very vital in crypto trading but these are the major tips some crypto traders ignore.

I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

I know you don't say prediction/view about the market is perfect but still, I don't think it possible to easily market clear trend, this only happens once in a while and if it happens only a few people usually get the information.

[New.in.trading]

Okay lets see where we are:


And as link:
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22

So my overall bias is long now. Lets see if I get a close now inside my buy area, and if price leaves again after that. Then I will open a buy (demo account!). In case I am not able to post it here, now you know the plan ;-)

[New.in.trading]

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd:

Somehow pics dont work here anymore

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc

This is the reason why a good enter/exit point with the inclusion of stop loss is very vital in crypto trading but these are the major tips some crypto traders ignore.

I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

I know you don't say prediction/view about the market is perfect but still, I don't think it possible to easily market clear trend, this only happens once in a while and if it happens only a few people usually get the information.

Do you know that saying: A trade that goes wrong, quickly turns into an "investment"  ? Nowadays its simply called HODL if you trade without an SL or TP. But as a Trader, I believe one needs these things. As an hodler, its a different story.

And yes: Clear trends are not always there, one more point why you need an systematic apporoach that wins more often than it loses, especially in btcusd trading

[New.in.trading]

Next update for BTCUSD
Price has not really moved anywhere... I am still waiting for it to enter and leave my bull areas, to then take a demo buy.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL87PoXB/

[New.in.trading]

Okay, so price has tested that first of those 3 Bull areas, but I did not dare to even take a paper trade. So until I get some more experience with double and tripple areas, I will not touch them! Lets see how this thing continues. Here is the 30 Min Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xlNOQ3aW/


and then there is the H4 chart, I cleaned it up a bit, so we can see more of whats going on there:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JQ3ziZc0/

[New.in.trading]

So BtcUsd worked a little around this area, but in the end it managed to continue bullish!

from the three M30 Areas, the first one gave an entry, but this would have been a BE trade for me.
The second area worked great and even if the first one was a loss trade (worst case), the second one eliminated the loss from the first one.
The third area was only tested, and gave no good entry.

Conclusion: If there is a cluster of areas, wait for clear signals, best seems to wait until all are at least touched/tested:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7kfWQChg/


Lets take a look at that H4 area, wich was a little sketchy as it was a consolidation low:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SldSp8nq/

[rahmatrf331]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

Old players are certainly more familiar with crypto trading every year and know how bitcoin moves every hour. but if you still get stuck with the same error, it's the same as a novice player. I see every year the value gets higher and is the king of coins on every exchange.

[New.in.trading]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

Old players are certainly more familiar with crypto trading every year and know how bitcoin moves every hour. but if you still get stuck with the same error, it's the same as a novice player. I see every year the value gets higher and is the king of coins on every exchange.

I rally think Trading and Holding are different things. Not that it would be bad to sell a bunch all 4 years, if it works for you, great! But if you want to pay your monthly expenses, you're gonna have a though time, getting paid only once in 4 years. Me personally, I am doing all this, to escape my job, and dont spend all day at the charts. I want to see some good opportunites, take them, make some profits and then move on and wait for the next good option. I cant tell my family, there will be no food for the next 4 years, as daddy needs to hodl some more...

[New.in.trading]

Lets get to TA here, now:
Price has created a Bull area, left it, closed back inside it and is about to close in 80 minutes. IF BtcUsd closes outside (to the top) again, this could be a potential entry and then I believe, its very possible that price will test the current ATH again. I have put things in the chart, to summarize it. Please not the marked up buy trade is not active, and will only become valid, IF the current H4 candle closes outside that bull area!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gEPf3yC/

[Wilhelm]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

This is the system that work because it’s based on long term trending.
I’m doing this method, this year too. Hop out when the FOMO and increases are too insane to sustain.
Then after 300 days jump in on the low again....

[New.in.trading]

So what happened then at BTCUSD?
-> Price created an Bull Area -> Bulls could not succeed -> Bull area failed -> As there was no entry, this is actually a good sign for ma, as this means, fail entries are sometimes prevented. See the pic for more details:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZIbn779/