Let us all together develop a Price Action Trading System for Bitcoin

[New.in.trading]

Hey peeps,
I just recently kind of stumbled over a thing, I want to test in the long run.

I will start with the basics today and post a thing every other day. Every constructive cirtisim/info on how to maybe improve this technique, is highly welcome!

Lets get started then:

Most important
I need a trend. In ranges this thing will not work. Or give ... suboptimal results.

So, if there is an Uptrend, I basically wait for price to retrace. Once price forms a low, I will then draw an area around the bearish candle with the lowest low. What I have seen many times, is that the following then happens:

-Price leaves that area
-Price comes back into that area
-Price leaves again and continues its way

So far, all I can say that it works best on the H4 chart, but its worth to combine the H4 areas with some M30 areas, drawn the same way.

Have a visual reference here:



I hope the basic principle is clear, and maybe you guys have the final spice to add, so this can become the best community created trading strategy ever. From what I have seen in the past, this does not only work for BtcUsd but also for most other things (even forex and some stocks, but stocks work differently so that is okay).

So... Hit me with your thoughts!

[franky1]

'trend' trading.. where you base your oppertunities based on median of 30 days prior trend.. its just a stupid game that pump n dumpers hope they can achieve if they can get enough followers to play into that game

its the followers that cause trends to repeat. by all gathering around one objective to buy into the trend
its not successful if not enough people are doing it

the other stupid thing is while followers are waiting for the 30th day to then trigger their moves. the organiser has already planned out the trend and acted accordingly before hand and has worked out their exit time.
FIFO(first in first out)

the followers come last as they cause the trend. and so they will be last to exit . meaning not all will gain
LILO(last in last out)

dont be fooled into these trend pump n dump games of everyone following a trend line

find some proper technical fundamentals. (TA=technical analysis.. not trend analysis)
the trend line game is for those who are foolish to be followers. not leaders
                                                                     to be the sheep of pump n dumps.
                                                                     to be last in last out
                                                                     to be the losers

[OgNasty]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

[New.in.trading]

'trend' trading.. where you base your oppertunities based on median of 30 days prior trend.. its just a stupid game that pump n dumpers hope they can achieve if they can get enough followers to play into that game

its the followers that cause trends to repeat. by all gathering around one objective to buy into the trend
its not successful if not enough people are doing it

the other stupid thing is while followers are waiting for the 30th day to then trigger their moves. the organiser has already planned out the trend and acted accordingly before hand and has worked out their exit time.
FIFO(first in first out)

the followers come last as they cause the trend. and so they will be last to exit . meaning not all will gain
LILO(last in last out)

dont be fooled into these trend pump n dump games of everyone following a trend line

find some proper technical fundamentals. (TA=technical analysis.. not trend analysis)
the trend line game is for those who are foolish to be followers. not leaders
                                                                     to be the sheep of pump n dumps.
                                                                     to be last in last out
                                                                     to be the losers

I dont really understand the connection here. I totally agree that pump and dump groups are only helping the organizers. No doubt. But I am not planning on any of that, I just showed you something I realized happen over and over again and try to find a systematical approach to use that. If you aint got any good to say, just dont say nothing at all. Thanks.

[New.in.trading]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

Thank you, that makes sense. As i dont own many BTCUSD, I want to try something I Realized when looking at the charts...

But yes, in the long run, BTC will definetely be worth much more than it is now.

As Warren Buffet said, when he was asked why not every one is trading the way he does: "Because nobody wants to become rich slowly".

[jaberwock]

There is no way this many people could get together and build something that would benefit every single one of them. You have to realize if one buys before the other that's going to change things and as long as that's true it will always be a problem for the people that buys later.

I understand that a system could mean that we could arrange something all together that would make it buy at the same level and sell at the same level but it would still change the market or not change at all depending on which coin we pick and that's not going to work. Long story short this will end up like all the pump and dump groups where the quick people will make money and slow people will end up losing money, that's not going to change at all. Obviously you could end up with not knowing what you are doing and not even manage to build a pump and dump type of group and just make everyone lose.

[New.in.trading]

There is no way this many people could get together and build something that would benefit every single one of them. You have to realize if one buys before the other that's going to change things and as long as that's true it will always be a problem for the people that buys later.

I understand that a system could mean that we could arrange something all together that would make it buy at the same level and sell at the same level but it would still change the market or not change at all depending on which coin we pick and that's not going to work. Long story short this will end up like all the pump and dump groups where the quick people will make money and slow people will end up losing money, that's not going to change at all. Obviously you could end up with not knowing what you are doing and not even manage to build a pump and dump type of group and just make everyone lose.

I think there is a misunderstanding here. Maybe I expressed something wrong as I am not a native speaker.

I do not want to come up with the next pump and dump scheme. My goal is to develop a trading Strategy. I think the word "System" triggers you into thinking its kind of a "Signal-Thing"

So basically, I have seen that Highs and Lows usually get tested, before price moves in the opposite direction. Thats how those areas are made.

So right now, I am looking for buys, if:
-There is an uptrend
-Price formed a higher low
-price leaves that place
-Price comes back into that area
-Price closes outside of that area again
--> ENTRY and max TP is previous high. Multiple partial TPs can be on the way, I use S&R Ranges for those.

So basically, with this post I was aiming to reach ppl who can:
-Benefit from this observation and maybe implement that in their trading
-Improve this very basic thought, together here

So not a pump group, not a "One says buy, everybody buys", only laying the foundation for a strategy here. Rules are simple, Trades can be reproduced, no rocketscience in this whole thing.

I thought, maybe someone comes in and says stuff like: "Maybe use an EMA to be crossed as additional confirmation", or "Look for divergencies" or whatever. Just take this basic construct and play around a little with it.

[New.in.trading]

Just to clarify, with the word "System" I refer to a systematic approach to trade the markets / BTCUSD. Not a System that would tell everybody to buy/sell at the same point. So I will from now on use the term Strategy instead.

See how it gave Entries in the 30 Min chart, in the last 7 days and maybe add your secret spice to filter out the bad signals, that every strategy has...

[New.in.trading]

So i did a journey into the basics of what I found on the charts, now lets get down to business!

in the current situation, BtcUsd had a nice bullrun in the H4 and is now forming Lower Highs. This is the result in the chart:


Note:
At every TP, I take 20% of the current open position. At TP1 I go Breakeven with the stop. At TP3, the stop goes to TP1. At TP4, the stop goes to TP2 and so on.
Also: only because price is in that Bear territory, it does not mean, price has to drop now. It only means, IF it does drop -> THEN the chance is quite high, it will continue going down for a bit. How long? Who knows... I use multiple targets for that, as I cant see the future.

Now, for those, who want a more snipery way to enter a trade, you could simply go down to the M30 chart and do the same exact thing I just did in the H4. I recommend to go down into lower timeframes only after the H4 has confirmed a sell/buy, as price can still go up at this stage (any stage basically). Lets assume we would have a confirmation on the H4, the corresponding M30 could be looking like this then:



The stop always goes above the Highest wick to make sure you dont get wicked out! that is the most annoying part in the H4 to be honest, as Stops are huge.

Hop you guys enjoyed this, and let me know what you think!

[New.in.trading]

Lets look at this thing in the H4 now, one day later:

[New.in.trading]

And see the entry in the M30, what was a little more... speculative, as H4 had not yet closed at that time:

[New.in.trading]

Let us see what happened in the past few hours, I marked yesterdays Post in that chart, so its easy to spot:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gtk0Ajnb/
TP2 was hit, and price retraced. Right now, It forms a new Bear area in the M30 and I am excited to see, if there might be the next entry, to maybe add another position.

[arufox]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

[New.in.trading]

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

It even makes sense, that it all gets dumped! Do you see similarities between 2017 and now? BitCoin is hyped in the media, BtcUsd is even shown in the banner in newschannels on TV (like Fox News and them). So if everyone wants some BTC, the whales will at one point sell it to them. All at once. flooding the markets (again). Suddendly there is way more Supply then Demand, and therefore the price will drop. If if starts dropping, all the ppl who are buying now, will be the first to try to get out. So they are selling their BTC as well. this might continue to become a sell off rally and suddenly, BTC lost around 80% of its value again...

[New.in.trading]

Lets Talk about the Trades:
the H4 one got stopped out, at BE after hitting TP 2. so a good part of the trade has been secured:


Also, a new possible Bear Territory is forming in the H4 Chart atm:


and if you look a bit around, you will find a M30 Bear Territory. This is a bit more risky to trade, as the H4 has not yet confirmed its new Bear Territory:

Still worth a try, imho.

If anyone has an additional way, on how to select if you would trade/not trade an M30 Area that is not yet confirmed by the corresponding H4, please let me know. That is what this thread is about. Learn and improve together!

[slapper]

Your prediction is still good but a sudden candle just makes the price of bitcoin surpasses $61000. However, the current buy force is still low. With no significant news or pump from the whales, btc price is stagnant which is a sign of reversal.



This is just my analysis. Things could be wrong. After all, we are at the beginning of Q2 which I believe big firms and whales tend to take profit A bear market can happen for about 2-3 weeks, and then we will return to the bull. The current momentum of bitcoin is still uptrend with a crucial buying force

[New.in.trading]

Your prediction is still good but a sudden candle just makes the price of bitcoin surpasses $61000. However, the current buy force is still low. With no significant news or pump from the whales, btc price is stagnant which is a sign of reversal.

Well... we only know for sure, once it happened. So basically, the M30 Trade was an BE/SL depending on how you managed it. I hate to see winning trades going back to DD so I close them many times, before they can hit DD. Lets count it as a loss, though, only to stay transparent.

Regarding the Trade in the M30, as mentioned earlier, this was the risky version, as the H4 did not give a valid entry. And hindsight, the H4 Bear territory was clearly broken by the bulls, and therefore in the H4 was no sell entry.

Lets take a look at the stucture in the H4 now:


The bearish territories ware clearly broken, so sells are off the table for now.

the bullish plan comes into play now, but this causes the problem of the "where is the Target" as we are about to break the ATH of BtcUsd... Lets see where the journey goes:

[New.in.trading]

I dont want to be a "Look at me, I told you so" kind of guy, but I m really happy about what happened in BtcUsd lately

H4

Link to the image
And in the 30:

link to image

All these pictures are hindsight, obviously. As I am still testing this whole thing, this is the only thing that makes sense. I try to be transparent as much as possible. The m30 would have been very risky, I think, and realisticly the stops should have been below that H4 Range, what still left us with around 1:1 for the moment.

[New.in.trading]

So lets see what BtcUsd has done in the meantime and what might happen in the future:



Here is the link to the pic, as somehow this pic cant be displayed...? https://www.tradingview.com/x/bBbqRVLk/

So, as long as it does not leave, come back and leave that H4 Bull Area again, With this kind of system, there is nothing to do right now. Lets see how this looks tomorrow then

[New.in.trading]

Lets recap:
In the last post for BTCUSD, my PA approach said: M30 could be buys, but are not confirmed by H4. The M30 Buys could have ended as BE, whereas the H4 never confirmed that Bull Area, and therefore buys in the H4 were off the table  when H4 closed below the Bull Area.

See Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eVr5QAZn/

So the next H4 areas come into play. As the bullish momentum seems to be broken (Bull area could not last), its either a range, or price is bearish. If I put in the bearish areas now, there could be continuation of sells:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ik21VbUY/

Unfortunately now preview is availible atm for pics, somehow.