How low could the next bear market move bitcoin?

[acener]

I think it is safe to assume that it wouldn't go below $30K from now on,
I think the next bear market could drop the BTC to as low as $40K or more but it wouldn't go down below $30K anymore.

[Lucius]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

If you think we are nearing the peak of this bull run take the number you think will be the absolute ATH for this year and reduce it by 90%, that would be some absolute bottom you can count on if you take past events as a relevant reference. Although missing the last 3+ years this table shows us what has happened in the past. Take into account that in the end the correction in 2018 was over 80%.

Source

The question of all questions is has anything changed now? We all know that this time it's not just retail money, but a lot of institutional money that bets on BTC - but whether they can and will keep the price stable is a complete unknown.

[Reid]

When it comes to cryptocurrencies, there is no assurance it will stay at the same number except for stablecoins.
Your prediction could be right or not.

IMO, you are not alone with this kind of standpoint. A lot of small investors might have sold their Bitcoin at a lower price before it even went to this high amount.
Where are they? In the shadows lurking around waiting for the right time to buy it back.
It may happen but unlike before, it has lower chances.

[yat97]

I'm really hoping the market doesn't rally at the top right now, I really really want this to be slower and reach the top in earliest 5 or 6 months. I am kind of enjoying this as I didn't really enjoy 2017 and would just want a few more months of this. Right guys? October is the earliest I'd want the top to come. But I hope 2022 is when it happens. Too hopeful?

I'd love for this to be the case as well, I'm still trying to accumulate more bitcoin. But lots of charts and graphs are saying we're near, if not already mid way through the top this time. But I pray you're correct. I'd actually love it to be a gradual ride up and maybe sit there without too much downside but..... I think that's just hopium.

[yat97]

And to everyone talking about the institutional money is in, so this time its different. Seems like that last part sounds familiar.

I do think there is a good chance bitcoin follows something totally wildly different this time. This time not only are there institutions, but more widespread knowledge among retail folk. AND mass money printing on top of world wide adoption of it. I hear people in India and China are getting into bitcoin which isn't something I was aware much of last time. Maybe they were there too but it seems like there is more interest from asia than last time.

[carlisle1]

When it comes to cryptocurrencies, there is no assurance it will stay at the same number except for stablecoins.
Your prediction could be right or not.

IMO, you are not alone with this kind of standpoint. A lot of small investors might have sold their Bitcoin at a lower price before it even went to this high amount.
Where are they? In the shadows lurking around waiting for the right time to buy it back.
It may happen but unlike before, it has lower chances.

It has a lower chance to catch up with the amount that you originally sold your BTC, as most thinks that reaching the last high since 2017 is already wild.

Unknowingly that there are lots of movements that  will happened along the way, you have to think out of the box and try what are the possibilities
that will going inside this market.

Just work with your own understanding and keep enhancing your knowledge.

[pixie85]

For a bull market to start we need a sharp rejection from the top. We haven't seen it this cycle.

If a price can stabilize for a week at a level right below the top it's not a sign of a coming bear. It's a sign that we're still in the same bull market we were a month ago.

We could go back to 20 thousand but I think pretty much like OP, that we'll have to see a new high first at maybe 80 or 100 thousand.

[jaberwock]

$10,000 USD per Bitcoin is still possible but chances of it to happen are close to zero. I don't think that it will go down to that price especially that many companies and establishments are integrating it to their business. A bear market will happen and that is inevitable but the level where it will bounce? I don't know but it will not go below $10,000. On the other hand, Bitcoin to $300,000 or even a Million is possible base on the S2F model but it will take a long time (at least) before it will happen and definitely not this year. Just save your cash just in case the bear market will happen this year so you can buy some near the bottom.

I wouldn't say that the chances for 10k is close to zero, it is definitely a lot lower but this is bitcoin, remember you should expect the unexpected here. I would say us reaching 100k+ and us reaching 10k is equal chances and this is coming from someone who expects bitcoin to reach 100k. In fact I can even see bitcoin reaching 100k first then reaching 10k and then it could be even something more than 100k after that, all could happen.

Now I know that sounds silly, that sounds like too much things that is "not probable" happening all back to back, but the reality is that bitcoin is a place where not probably things happen back to back all the time and that is why it is such a weird place to make money. Nobody can tell me that when price went from 9k to under 4k overnight last march people were expecting the price to reach to 60k+ levels in a year, nobody expected it, but it happened anyway.

[Fortify]

It seems that at this point everyone is clueless on the future movement of Bitcoin. Having reached it's current price it will be difficult to see it dropping very far without big investors stepping in to buy up more. Unlike most other assets there is a ceiling on the amount of Bitcoin available and there are lots of billionaires out there with nothing better to spend their money on. The fact that controlling bitcoin allows them to move money overseas more freely and with minimal oversight is almost unprecedented - it is a money launderers dream. Outside of some sort of fierce government intervention from the US, it is hard to see anything causing a substantial downside. However there is the possibility of it losing half it's current value if we were to look at the historical waves and the fact that it spiked heavily from 15k to 60k.

[Fredomago]

This is very hard to guess although I would say Bitcoin won't ever go below 20000 for sure, but in my opinion it won't ever drop below 25-30s. Its impossible from now on. Next halving will create another heavy bull run. That's why you should never sell your bitcoin. Always increase your bitcoin stash. Many people think it will go around 300k dollars but I think not this season.

For now, being positive helps you to encourage yourself to keep buying each time you have the capabilities, Bitcoin may drop and with your barrier it's possible as it happened before but likewise, we seen a lots of huge pumped and there are many new investors from the business side, showing the strength upon, Bitcoin more or less will pumped more and reach new ATH.


Yes, A lots of speculations, there are believers who see Bitcoin to reach $100K this year, that's really interesting if you start investing your spare money from now.

[adaseb]

What I learnt how to spot or buy the absolute bottom with Bitcoin is when you pretty much think "its finally dead". I lived thru this 3 times.

First time was in 2015 when it was holding the $200 support, then all of a sudden it broke support on Bitfinex and people were calling for 2 digit bitcoin. 24-48 hours later it went back over $200 and never returned. However in those 24-48 hours, people were saying bitcoin is dead.

Second time was when it broke the $6000 support back in Nov 2018. People assumed $6K would hold and it didn't. Then people assumed $5.5K would hold, then $5K, then $4K, and then when it hit $3.5K. People were calling for $2K or 3 digit bitcoin. It never happened and that was the bottom.

Last time was during the Covid19 Bitmex futures crash. There was $1 Billion worth of long liquidations and maybe $10 Million worth of bids. People were calling for bitcoin to go to $0. And if it wasn't for the exchange going down. We might of went even lower. In those hours people said that "bitcoin was finished" and it was the perfect time to buy.

So the time to buy will be when you think "bitcoin is definately finished this time".

[tabas]

I think it is safe to assume that it wouldn't go below $30K from now on,

As much as we want to assume safely, this is still bitcoin which is a very volatile crypto asset. But always the two sides that we're not sure of, wrong or right.

I think the next bear market could drop the BTC to as low as $40K or more but it wouldn't go down below $30K anymore.

We'll never know but that's a better thing if that happens that it won't drop that much anymore.

[Oasisman]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

What do you guys think?

Why did you think that Bitcoin is at it's peak.. soon?
Lemme give you some of the news that will somehow gives enough reason that Btc is far from being on it's peak. (These are just my views and opinion anyway.)

MicroStrategy bought $15m worth of Btc at $59,000 a piece.
NBA Sacramento Kings offers Bitcoin as Salary for the players and staff.
here's another reasons why Bitcoin will continue to soar.

Bitcoin stabilizing at this current range doesn't show any signs of being bearish. So, we still can't talk about how low Bitcoin will be during the bearish season, because we simply didn't reach the peak of this bullish run yet.

[Luqman]

I don't think the price will go below 20k.

I agree with you. Considering the current price of Bitcoin, even the price still has a chance to go up higher, so the lowest price of Bitcoin in the next bearish season should be above $20K. Moreover, nowadays, there is much positive news in Bitcoin, big companies and popular people in the world are joining Bitcoin investment. This must improve the value of Bitcoin in the long run, I am very optimistic about this.

[Silberman]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?

The chances of a price below 10k are as close as zero as it can be, even a price below 20k seems impossible because it is going to break the pattern that bitcoin has established of never going below the ATH established during the previous run and I think that is going to maintain itself during this run as well, however I agree with you that a 80k to 100k price during this year could be the theoretical limit for bitcoin and as such this is not the best moment to invest since it could be wise to keep some money in hand when it goes lower than the current levels and buy bitcoin at those levels.

[slaman29]

I'd love for this to be the case as well, I'm still trying to accumulate more bitcoin. But lots of charts and graphs are saying we're near, if not already mid way through the top this time. But I pray you're correct. I'd actually love it to be a gradual ride up and maybe sit there without too much downside but..... I think that's just hopium.

Well I really hope I'm right and they're all wrong the charts but yes, I think we all have to be prepared in any case that this is really it for now. I think the "problem" is too much is going into defi and when that things falls apart then we will either see BTC strengthen and regular alts the same or everything comes down again like post ICO times. Who knows? We wait. And hopium.

[slapper]

Hard to tell exactly the zone if we do not know where the peak is. Currently, bitcoin is around $55000-$60000 and this is good evidence that it will gonna knock the current peak to move toward another ATH. There is no sign of bearish yet thus, a detailed explanation is impossible. Even right now, you can not tell exactly what the next peak of bitcoin will be. Some said that bitcoin will hit $80000 before June while others believe bitcoin will soon surpass $100000. Personally, I always have the feeling that bitcoin is going to break every forecast and reach even an unbelievable price.

From my stance, you should buy bitcoin while it is at this low. Or you can wait to see whether bitcoin will be sold to $50000 or not. The current state of the price is in the midst of Q1 and Q2 of 2021 and it does not surprise me that companies and individuals are dumping bitcoin for a partial profit

[magneto]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

[kotajikikox]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?

10k or 20k below will never come even How  Bearish the market shows sooner, Because this 5 digits value is the stable price and going below this is not tolerable.

Imagine the 1 trillion Market capitalization will come back to 200 billion again ? that is far from reality lol.

remember that now investors are here with true intention and not just to hype and dump like what Whales doing for the past years.

[perfect999]

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong.

In any case we are in a situation where bitcoin is definitely moving to opposite direction of what people believe but that's by design. Manipulation is something that can be done here without any problem from regulators, so whales do check the charts and see where it "should" go and then wait for people to share that info and when everyone thinks it will do that those rich people actually end up doing exactly the opposite so that they would make the most money.

Personally I am expecting bitcoin markets to test $100k to $200k by end of this year and then as per 4 year long cycle of bitcoin markets, we can see bears to come in action which may lead to 50 to 70% from the ATH.