How low could the next bear market move bitcoin?

[KTChampions]

well let’s do the following math experiment.

we mine 144 x 6.25 coins a day on average. or 900 coins a day.

How many coins can A guy like Jeff Bezos buy daily.

At 60k a coin. x 100 it is 6 million a day in coin.

So in 1 year he would need to spend 365 x 6 = 2.16 billion.

So for as long as Bezos wants to buy BTC he can do so. So he is clearing around 10 billion every year.

Btw  many billionaires can do this.

Also gold = about 11 trillion
btc = about 1.1 trillion

One of the big time billionaires Musk is looking to partner with NASA

to check out a golden astroid in 2022. So gold could become as common as copper.

Means all the gold people have to consider leaving gold for a safer value item. BTC

At current prices, the redemption of the entire annual issue will cost about $ 20 billion. This is a fairly significant amount, given that its redemption will only leave the price in place - in order for the price to rise, demand must exceed supply, but there are many sellers (owners of old coins) on the market. Therefore, it seems to me that there will not be such an easy movement as many people expect.

[STT]

Last I looked my worst case scenario was around 30k to 20k and it was reasonable to be buying in small parts around there no matter how grim it seemed it could easily bounce at that point.  Right now it should dip to 58k to meet closing main market prices.
   Theres no proper hint of a bear market move, its not properly broken anything yet.  Move past 55k and stay there for daily and weekly bars and we can speak further on this with some seriousness.   Dollar index is quite slowly moving up, a sharp move up would cause more upset.  DXY basing around 92 as a low makes me think it possible but I dont trade Forex.

[electronicash]

Last I looked my worst case scenario was around 30k to 20k and it was reasonable to buying in small part around there no matter how it seemed it could easily bounce at that point.  Right now it should dip to 58k to meet closing main market prices.
   Theres no proper hint of a bear market move, its not properly broken anything yet.  Move past 55k and stay there for daily and weekly bars and we can speak further on this with some seriousness.   Dollar index is quite slowly moving up, a sharp move up would cause more upset.

it's about to go up they say. if there will really be a bear market that will come soon, it's likely below $20k but not less $10k. i would however be on the lookout of a signal whether the market will do another downturn which it hasn't shown yet.

so far many are speculating that the price could really break out to more than $100K while everything seems to fall apart from a health crisis, real estate to supply chain to which the supercycle they are expecting could happen.

[Silberman]

I really highly doubt that we're going to see 4 digit BTC again.

People now fully appreciate that BTC indeed operate in 4 year cycles - whereby the peaks at halvings almost always outdoes the last halving, and there is a period of relative calm in between the bull markets.

With the market a lot more mature and institutional bagholders rolling in, I wouldn't be surprised if this "bear market" turns out to be just extremely small blip in the bigger long term picture. Keep DCA'ing now, don't try to wait for the bearish sentiment as it may never come.

I think in a way similar to this, even if what we were seeing now was just a repetition of the 2017 bull market that we saw back then even a price below 10k will be basically impossible, but this time around things are completely different, institutional investors have changed the way we think of this market forever, they are not going to let go of their bitcoin as easily as the weak hands that had those bitcoins before and when we take into account the low price they entered the market they are very likely to remain in profits even if the market crashed 50% or less so they will not have too much of a reason to sell in the future.

Anything is possible. Back in 2017 there was institutional investors also. Especially with the launch of the BTC futures. People were thinking an BTC ETF was going to appear shortly after and look what happened.

I don't think we will see 4 digit BTC either, however anything can happen. Right now everybody is greedy. However imagine Tesla sells, Saylor sells and MtGox coins are unlocked and we can see panic very fast and who knows, maybe 4 digit BTC.

Just like what happened back in Nov 2018, everybody was assuming $6K was the bottom and look what happened.

We know that technically everything is possible so the scenario that you bring will without a doubt make the price of bitcoin to crash almost overnight because people are going to panic about so many coins coming to the market and not enough money being there to absorb all of those coins, however we need to question ourselves how likely is that scenario? And I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

[doomloop]

I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

[Silberman]

I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

A price below 20k will violate every single thing that we know about the growth of the price of bitcoin, it is a known fact that a crash of the current bull run never goes below the all time high from the previous bull run and I do not see why this tendency is not going to continue now especially when the price increase that we're going to see during the next months is going to be so high that I do not think even an 80% crash is going to be enough for us to see that price ever again

[freedomgo]

$8K is still very possible and is a level that I personally consider as a strong support. Next to 3K. Bitcoin pretty much loitered around 8K for a very long time before  spiking to 60K recently, and I believe if the bear market sets in we can easily go back to those ranges. Just look at how easily bitcoin has broken through different resistances in the past few months. I think the same will happen when it breaks through support levels during a bear Market.

I only see few people who are really giving this kind of figure, most of us now are just like into FOMO who are predicting a higher price, but it's good to see this as after all we have some people who really understands how bitcoin move and they give more realistic predicting when things turn bearish.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

If there's going to be a top in the near future before we experience any bear then I don't think it'll be below $100k as that price is the milestone everyone or most traders (speculators) are in look out for. The predictions and speculations has always revolves around that price.

It's going to be a major decisions maker to determine how far the bullrun will last or will the market be experiencing some bearish turnout depending on how the market gets the rejected. There's no doubt alot of investor and traders would be taking profit at that milestone and this is definitely going to cause some unbalanced in the market.

In regards to how low the market can go if the bear market was to begin, I think without any unnecessary fud like the previous pandemic, the market will be seating comfortably above$20k although that can be certain since nobody knows what tomorrow holds.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

It is very difficult for Bitcoin to get back to $ 20k, but it is very possible, some bears are waiting for the best opportunity to push it down, but I think that the bulls now will have a more expensive turn to make the movements, from the point of Institutional investment view I think that the bulls have more strength, and I do not think that institutional investment can agree to "Short" the Bitcoin market, I think it will not go down to that figure for now. It is necessary to emphasize that the more adoption there is, the more likely that bitcoin is boosted more, at the moment there is a correction in the market and it coincides with the correction of Coinbase with Coin in WALL STREET, now Wall Street is giving another face to Bitcoin.  I see that Bitcoin's downtrend is still a long way off, eventually we don't know when and how long the next accumulation stage will come, but everything is possible in Crypto.

[Shasha80]

Seeing the current performance of Bitcoin, there is no need to worry about the price of Bitcoin going down in the near future. Because there is
no sign of a bear market yet, so we are still optimistic that currently Bitcoin can still go up much higher. Probably based on my prediction,
if the price hits the $ 100k price tag there will be a bear market. Because many Bitcoin holders have $ 100k target price for profit taking,
It is possible that if many people sell Bitcoin the price will likely fall and that may be the beginning of a bear market. Even if there is a bear market,
it is impossible for the price to drop below $ 50k, because now Bitcoin is indeed stronger in fundamentals. So the price is unlikely to fall too far.

[STT]

What I find slightly interesting here is the list of bearish thread titles is pretty minimal, so nobody reacting to the fall does that make it a storm in a tea cup or some indication the fallout has not yet hit especially.    Froth at the tops is when people wont shut up about 1 mil a coin and other fantastical pipe dreams and the lows might be a constant drudge of negative threads its over etc.
  We got people not caring about the fall for now anyhow which is some indicator to me, its a technical blip and reverses quick before weekly bar close perhaps or we continue in some trend down till people cry about it etc.

[blckhawk]

I think we're reaching the peak soon. So I was wondering, how much do you think we could get down to?

Any chance of bitcoin going below 10,000 USD? I really doubt it. I'm thinking maybe it might go below 20k but that's a maybe and only if bitcoin only goes up to maybe 80 at the peak of this bull market here soon. I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.


What do you guys think?

Good thing that you have a plan like saving up some cash in case Bitcoin enters the bear market cause' that way you will maximize your profit. Regarding the price when we enter bear, I don't think Bitcoin will go down as $10k as well perhaps it would play between $20k-$30k something unless big hodlers sell off the majority of their stash that would really hit hard the price. Reaching $300k to a million is possible however not on this year though it would take several years and halving for it to happen, the highest price I can only think that is possible to happen this year is $100k or less. There's no indication yet that the market is going on a bear, as a matter of fact, everyone expects that this bull will run much longer so take all the Bitcoin as you can especially now that we're in a little bit of correction.

[Viscore]

$20k, $10k, I don't know, I mean we're not sure how much it dumps if there is a bearish season again.
I was not thinking that thing this time, I was focused on the surge, the bullish season that we enjoyed for almost a year. I only think about market corrections but not seeing a huge drop to happens just like we experience in the past years(2018-2019).

If the market sustains this demand streak that we have now, bearish seems going to be impossible, I mean that only be a few chances.

[dimonstration]

$20k, $10k, I don't know, I mean we're not sure how much it dumps if there is a bearish season again.
I was not thinking that thing this time, I was focused on the surge, the bullish season that we enjoyed for almost a year. I only think about market corrections but not seeing a huge drop to happens just like we experience in the past years(2018-2019).

If the market sustains this demand streak that we have now, bearish seems going to be impossible, I mean that only be a few chances.

There’s really no way that the market will go too deep since the adoption is really doing fine especially at the times like these institutional companies as well many personalities tweeting and responding in the hype, the price may go down a bit but will rise again for sure as many were still hoping to buy when the price fall atleast even a bit.

[STT]

It wont likely happen all at once, the path to a much lower price is multiple tests and confirmation downwards.   So right now price is recovery, failing in that recovery leads further down and so on.  It snowballs as it becomes something of a trend and people add in some weight to that sell until it breaks in some way and likely overshoots downwards otherwise we are just wandering back and forth.

Move past 55k and stay there for daily and weekly bars and we can speak further

just quoting my past estimate because half my reason to post is to revise and decide my take on forthcoming moves, I dont think we are fully bearish by this measure:

[SquallLeonhart]

I know a lot of people think bitcoin will go to 300,000 or even a million but I really doubt that. I can see 80,000 and 100k for maybe a week or so but hopefully I'm wrong. I'm gonna buy more bitcoin here soon and grit my teeth if we start going down sooner than later. I'm saving a bit of cash, only half of what I'd normally spend, to buy during the bear market when it's doom and gloom and people thinking bitcoin is over or "when it comes out... ZERO" Idk if anyone gets that reference lol but yeah.

Do not try to estimate what could be the time for it to happen, and how low it could get, because you can't. If you asked people in 2017 at the start when it was 700 dollars, would bitcoin be 20k this year, almost all of them would say no, at the end of 2017 if you told people if it would be 3k again, they would say no, if you said to people last year if it would be 64k+ they would say no, when you tell people could it be under 20k they will say no as well, that's risky.

There is really nothing we can do to calculate how low it could get, it could get super low, it could stay super high, there is no price that would be guaranteed, any low price could happen and any high price could happen. Obviously we all know it won't be like 60 dollars or something, that is really surreal, there needs to be a global shutdown or something, this is why I am feeling not worried.

[Silberman]

I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

It is very difficult for Bitcoin to get back to $ 20k, but it is very possible, some bears are waiting for the best opportunity to push it down, but I think that the bulls now will have a more expensive turn to make the movements, from the point of Institutional investment view I think that the bulls have more strength, and I do not think that institutional investment can agree to "Short" the Bitcoin market, I think it will not go down to that figure for now. It is necessary to emphasize that the more adoption there is, the more likely that bitcoin is boosted more, at the moment there is a correction in the market and it coincides with the correction of Coinbase with Coin in WALL STREET, now Wall Street is giving another face to Bitcoin.  I see that Bitcoin's downtrend is still a long way off, eventually we don't know when and how long the next accumulation stage will come, but everything is possible in Crypto.

As we know everything is possible on the markets but the resistance to get to that point is going to be massive, the bears are having trouble pushing the price down the 50k level so I can only imagine how many problems they will have trying to push the price down so much and this is even more true now as institutional investors will defend the price of bitcoin as they do not want their investment to put them in the red and force them to sell for a loss.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I think it is a very unlikely scenario, we are most likely not going to see a price of bitcoin going below 10k and there is an argument to be made that we are never going to see it below 20k again either.

Yeah I agree, we no more see again $20k for sure. At the same time, we are going to see $100 to $400 in coming months and by next year only we are going to see heavy sell off. A crash may happen which may lead to prices to fall down up to 50% from ATH. So, we never need to worry about how lower bitcoin markets may go right now. We are into stronger bull run now and which may last until end of this year. Just enjoy the bull run which is rare and available only once in four years.

It is very difficult for Bitcoin to get back to $ 20k, but it is very possible, some bears are waiting for the best opportunity to push it down, but I think that the bulls now will have a more expensive turn to make the movements, from the point of Institutional investment view I think that the bulls have more strength, and I do not think that institutional investment can agree to "Short" the Bitcoin market, I think it will not go down to that figure for now. It is necessary to emphasize that the more adoption there is, the more likely that bitcoin is boosted more, at the moment there is a correction in the market and it coincides with the correction of Coinbase with Coin in WALL STREET, now Wall Street is giving another face to Bitcoin.  I see that Bitcoin's downtrend is still a long way off, eventually we don't know when and how long the next accumulation stage will come, but everything is possible in Crypto.

As we know everything is possible on the markets but the resistance to get to that point is going to be massive, the bears are having trouble pushing the price down the 50k level so I can only imagine how many problems they will have trying to push the price down so much and this is even more true now as institutional investors will defend the price of bitcoin as they do not want their investment to put them in the red and force them to sell for a loss.

Yes, you are right, although I think there are many things to see, the market has been moved by new institutional investment, but I do not think that the whales that participated in the 2017 market have entered into action, if these whales decide to make a radical move in "short", will it be possible to bring down the positions of Elon Musk, Paypal, Microestrategy? That doubt has haunted me for a long time, I believe that the current investment of those institutions will create a very high wall of prices to defend their positions, in this case, I imagine that they will not want it to fall below $50k.

[peterpanda]

Actually crypto market is unpredictable and anything is possible in this virtual market but I don't think that bitcoin will down below $10k again. If price falls in huge amount, it may down to $30k but possibility is so low. Within this year, bitcoin can reach the milestone of $100k.