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ranochigo
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April 22, 2021, 07:24:27 AM |
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You currently need at least 20sat/vbyte for it to even be broadcasted. The chances of it being confirmed within any reasonable timeframe is still very low even if you were to use 20sat/vbyte.
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Charles-Tim
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April 22, 2021, 07:29:08 AM |
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I think it is self explanatory, that you should increase the fee, the mempool is filled already with transactions that have higher fee, for the purpose of your transaction not to be removed from mempool, is the reason for the notification, you will need to increase the fee. The feerate is around 210 sat/vbyte for now, even having slightly higher fee like 20 sat/vbyte can not get your transaction confirmed for now.
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HCP
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April 22, 2021, 07:30:17 AM |
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NeuroticFish
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April 22, 2021, 07:33:15 AM |
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What's the problem?
The problem is that the network is hugely congested, hence the fees are (too) high. The reason is that some mining farms have no electricity hence they're out of business for a while. Keep an eye on https://mempool.space/ now and then. Right now you'll probably won't be able to send at under 20.8 sat/vByte and even then it is basically useless, since current fees are at over 100 sat/vByte. As I said, keep an eye now and then on that website, wait for the lower fees come. If those miners don't get back in business, in less than 2 weeks the network difficulty will drop and the mempool will (slowly) clear up. so if you can wait, .. wait. If not, then it's gonna be expensive.
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Charles-Tim
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April 22, 2021, 07:40:15 AM |
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If those miners don't get back in business, in less than 2 weeks the network difficulty will drop and the mempool will (slowly) clear up. so if you can wait, .. wait. If not, then it's gonna be expensive.
You are right, but just to make it more clearer, it is not 2 weeks exactly, although it is usually roughly 2 weeks, but the exact time is based on block height which is every 2016 blocks that the mining difficulty will be adjusted, which is roughly every 2 weeks.
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NeuroticFish
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April 22, 2021, 07:46:56 AM |
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You are right, but just to make it more clearer, it is not 2 weeks exactly, although it is usually roughly 2 weeks but the exact is every 2016 blocks that the mining difficulty will be adjusted.
Indeed, it's 2016 blocks. But since it's expected that this 2016 blocks means this time more than 3 weeks, and since 1.5 weeks have already passed, my answer was that it's roughly ("about") 2 more weeks from now on. At least that's how I see it from "Difficulty adjustment" area on mempool.space Maybe I should have been indeed clearer.
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o_e_l_e_o
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April 22, 2021, 08:24:55 AM |
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If things stay as they are, then I would expect the next difficulty adjustment to happen around May 4th. If that's the case, then the total length of this difficulty period would be around 18 days.
If we exclude the first 20 or so difficulty periods from 2009 when the difficulty was 1 and therefore couldn't drop further, this will potentially be the longest difficulty period we've ever had. The current longest is between blocks 149,184 and 151,200 back in October 2011, which took 17 days, 1 hour, 57 minutes, and 39 seconds.
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The Sceptical Chymist
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April 22, 2021, 04:06:01 PM |
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You currently need at least 20sat/vbyte for it to even be broadcasted. The chances of it being confirmed within any reasonable timeframe is still very low even if you were to use 20sat/vbyte.
Yeah, I would advise not sending bitcoin right now with a 20 sat/byte fee. I've got a transaction sent with 48 sats/byte that's been stuck in the network for about three days now. I'm pretty sure if you want to get a reasonable confirmation time you need to include a fee that's between 100-200 sats/byte. Crazy, isn't it? I hate it when bitcoin gets like this, and it's times like these that make it clear to me why bitcoin makes for a shitty currency. Seriously, would you rather buy something with bitcoin or a debit card right now if you could choose between the two? I'm not saying bitcoin isn't a great investment, just a lousy form of payment sometimes. The reason is that some mining farms have no electricity hence they're out of business for a while.
Yeah, I heard something about that yesterday but forgot to google it. Thanks for reminding me, going to do that right now.
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BITCOIN4X
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April 22, 2021, 09:21:29 PM |
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Yeah, I would advise not sending bitcoin right now with a 20 sat/byte fee. I've got a transaction sent with 48 sats/byte that's been stuck in the network for about three days now. I'm pretty sure if you want to get a reasonable confirmation time you need to include a fee that's between 100-200 sats/byte. If you're not in a rush to get confirmation, then there's no need to jump in fees via RBF. So far 200+ sat/ byte ($18+) is a top priority based on the Mempool.space site. There may be no point in broadcasting transaction with lower fee under 50 sat at this point in time as this will result in the transaction getting stuck. Crazy, isn't it? Of course, but maybe it will get even crazier when we have to be forced to make transaction with high fee because the price of bitcoin continues to experience correction. Lol
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BlackHatCoiner
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April 23, 2021, 01:53:27 PM |
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Seriously, would you rather buy something with bitcoin or a debit card right now if you could choose between the two? I'm not saying bitcoin isn't a great investment, just a lousy form of payment sometimes. I think it's pretty clear that it can't be used as a currency same-like it did a decade ago. Whether the majority used LN or not, there would still be very high fees for it to be considered a form of payment. It doesn't look like that anymore, it's been taken way too seriously. Maybe after all, altcoins, such as Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash, are the ones that can short-termly solve the fee issues. The irony is the fact that it started with nearly zero fees. That damn guy knew very well the words he/she picked. there will probably always be nodes willing to process transactions for free.
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o_e_l_e_o
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April 25, 2021, 08:31:39 AM |
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Seriously, would you rather buy something with bitcoin or a debit card right now if you could choose between the two? I'm not saying bitcoin isn't a great investment, just a lousy form of payment sometimes. Well, it depends on how you look at it. I can make a bitcoin payment and pay a low fee which might take a week to confirm. The money will arrive in the recipient's wallet immediately and they can use it immediately (by way of a CPFP, if they desire), and in a week it will be impossible for me to reverse that transaction. Or I can make a Visa payment. They money will take 3-5 working days to arrive in the recipient's bank account before they can use it, and I can reverse it for somewhere between 90 and 180 days depending on my jurisdiction simply by phoning up Visa and saying my card was stolen. Maybe after all, altcoins, such as Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash, are the ones that can short-termly solve the fee issues. I would rather use Visa than BCash. It is centralized, insecure, and has been successfully 51% attacked on multiple occasion. If things stay as they are, then I would expect the next difficulty adjustment to happen around May 4th. If that's the case, then the total length of this difficulty period would be around 18 days. Incidentally, this is no longer the case. Hash rate has picked up significantly in the last couple of days, the average block time has come back down towards 10 minutes, and with this, the mempool has started to clear out (down from 200 sats/vbyte to 20 sats/vbyte). The next readjustment is now projected to happen around May 2nd.
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Pmalek
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April 25, 2021, 08:52:11 AM |
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Or I can make a Visa payment. They money will take 3-5 working days to arrive in the recipient's bank account before they can use it, and I can reverse it for somewhere between 90 and 180 days depending on my jurisdiction simply by phoning up Visa and saying my card was stolen. How easy/difficult is it to make credit card chargeback? Luckily, I have never found myself in a situation where I needed to do such a thing. But you must certainly provide proof and a valid reason for the reversal. Valid proofs could be that your card got stolen, you were double-charged, or you are not satisfied with whatever goods you purchased and the seller refuses to return your money. It can't be that easy as me calling up my bank and saying I want those $100 bucks I sent o_e_l_e_o last month reversed. He lied to me and never sent the goods. An internal investigation would have to be carried out and I have to prove I never got what I paid for or that it isn't in a condition it was advertised to be in (in case of goods).
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ranochigo
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April 25, 2021, 10:47:15 AM |
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How easy/difficult is it to make credit card chargeback? Luckily, I have never found myself in a situation where I needed to do such a thing. But you must certainly provide proof and a valid reason for the reversal. Valid proofs could be that your card got stolen, you were double-charged, or you are not satisfied with whatever goods you purchased and the seller refuses to return your money.
Depends. If you're talking about transactions without a physical item, it would be fairly easy. I don't think its particularly hard to provide any evidence (if they even ask for it that is) and they almost always tend to side with the consumer instead of the merchant. Having zero risks with chargeback is far better than having to shoulder the losses from something like that. It can't be that easy as me calling up my bank and saying I want those $100 bucks I sent o_e_l_e_o last month reversed. He lied to me and never sent the goods. An internal investigation would have to be carried out and I have to prove I never got what I paid for or that it isn't in a condition it was advertised to be in (in case of goods).
The criteria for chargeback is just so broad. Unfortunately the reality is that, banks probably won't bother trying to investigate it and just rule in favour of the consumer. I've had an experience with purchasing some computer parts and it arrived with the pins all bent and it was packed terribly, merchant doesn't want to refund or even replace it for me. Called up my bank, said they will investigate and it took a week or so. Never asked for any proof from me and I don't think they needed any proof from the merchant. Anyhow, unless you're using lightning or any off-chain solution, accepting Bitcoin as an on-chain payment is far too expensive for both the user and the merchant.
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o_e_l_e_o
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April 25, 2021, 12:51:32 PM |
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My experiences are similar to ranochigo. I've had to chargeback on a credit card a handful of times. For anything of value less than a few hundred dollars it was processed with no further questions. I also did a chargeback for an item which cost several thousand dollars, and all the required proof was a photo of the damaged item which, in hindsight, would have been almost trivial to fake. Perhaps being a long standing customer of my bank and in good standing worked in my favor.
I've never had to report a card as stolen or hacked before, but based in the above experiences I can't imagine it's very difficult. Certainly far easier than double spending a bitcoin transaction.
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The Sceptical Chymist
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April 25, 2021, 03:15:34 PM |
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I've never had to report a card as stolen or hacked before, but based in the above experiences I can't imagine it's very difficult. Certainly far easier than double spending a bitcoin transaction.
I've had to report a card as stolen with unauthorized transactions before, and it was fairly easy to do--but it was a bank card, not a credit card, and I think the difficulty in getting transactions reversed heavily depends on the card issuer and their policies, which probably vary wildly. On a brighter note, the transaction I had stuck in the network for days finally went through and I was able to send bitcoin with a fee of about 28 sats/byte just now and got a confirmation within a few minutes. Yahoo!! Hopefully that's the end of the network congestion for now.
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o_e_l_e_o
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April 25, 2021, 03:38:23 PM |
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Hopefully that's the end of the network congestion for now.
It actually looks like we might swing the other way now. Hash rate seems to not only have recovered from the drop, but may in fact be even higher than it was before. Indeed, we just found 7 blocks in under 5 minutes. However, because of the several days of lower hash rate, at the next difficulty readjustment in a week the difficulty is still likely to drop, perhaps even in the region of 10%. If that happens, then a combination of a higher hash rate and a lower difficult could get us back down to the 2-3 sats/vbyte level within a couple of weeks.
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pooya87
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April 26, 2021, 03:24:16 AM |
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On a brighter note, the transaction I had stuck in the network for days finally went through and I was able to send bitcoin with a fee of about 28 sats/byte just now and got a confirmation within a few minutes. Yahoo!! Hopefully that's the end of the network congestion for now.
Hopefully, but the problem is that as the FUD clears the price starts rising up and as the panic buyers are rushing back to the market (so far $4k up in past 24 hours) we are going to see another surge of on-chain transactions that could potentially increase the fees once again.
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