From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?
What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
if you really updated on the project where you make an investment then for sure you can prevent such scenario. Indeed most of the reason that can really affect the project nowadays is from social media.. If you used to visit the social media using some related content about the project or making research then you're smart investor, what i mean every day you always have an information such what's the situation of the project and etc just to prevent such scenario in my opinion.