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Author Topic: A member LIST .. What do we speculate the price will be this summer JOIN IN  (Read 5506 times)
sgbett
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May 14, 2021, 03:17:07 PM
Last edit: May 17, 2021, 08:50:45 AM by sgbett
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #61

$33,333


Edit: Top is in, market will be moving down for while now.

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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May 14, 2021, 03:23:43 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #62

$68,000- Economies picking up, more are being vaccinated, more EFT's in play, and Musk re-announcing Telsa will accept BTC after he finishes buying the dip.
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May 14, 2021, 04:11:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #63

My guess is $59,250

Ok, here is the reason. I expect us to range within the pennant as shown below for the rest of the month. After we break the resistance, we will try the support of the upper line of the pennant for a couple of times, until we eventually break towards to upside (after that, we will have a new ATH in July).

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May 14, 2021, 04:34:50 PM
 #64

I am just gonna be a jerk and say if a bearish BSVer wins this because of the apocalypse or whatever the payout should be in their "real bitcoin": 0.077BSV

But the Dude is not an asshole like me... Smiley
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May 14, 2021, 04:46:30 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #65

It's nice to see you again and this contest.

Mine, $49,500 per 1BTC.

Reason: We know that Bitcoin price has no infinite growth and it will always have a correction after it will be pumped.
I followed this Bitcoin Price Prediction for years and it seems their forecast almost accurate and based on their prediction on this month of June this year, it's around $35k-53k range so I choose $49.5k for Bitcoin price.





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May 14, 2021, 06:33:55 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #66

$75,800.

There's inflation on the one hand, and on the other hand there's people who'll get immune for Elon tweets, Doge hypes and climate blahblah at lightning speed.

By the way, this initiative is great mate...........

Signature for rent.
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May 14, 2021, 09:27:05 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2021, 06:51:12 AM by mprep
 #67

my magic 8 ball says $52,469

question: Can I post the link of this thread on my local board to possibly attract more members to join this event? I'll only it if you gave a go-ahead. Thanks for the event and the chance to win btw.

Yes you can, ask some support in "why they support think there price"



It's nice to see you again and this contest.

Mine, $49,500 per 1BTC.

Reason: We know that Bitcoin price has no infinite growth and it will always have a correction after it will be pumped.
I followed this Bitcoin Price Prediction for years and it seems their forecast almost accurate and based on their prediction on this month of June this year, it's around $35k-53k range so I choose $49.5k for Bitcoin price.

Jan 2025... --> 65k ish on you're guru's model... please just follow whatever except what you're following  Tongue Kiss

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

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May 14, 2021, 09:59:57 PM
 #68

My guess would be:
61540$


-----------------
61,540 Iced

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May 14, 2021, 10:04:28 PM
 #69

$33,333


Please can I ask you 3 more guesses as well ??

21th of June 2021 what will be worth one Bcash?
21th of June 2021 what will be worth one BSV?
Will CWS again try to prove he's Satoshi?

Thx in advance...

Better yet.. will CSW be out of jail on June 21, 2021?  That fuck.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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May 14, 2021, 10:04:59 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2021, 06:51:10 AM by mprep
 #70

$33,333

Please can I ask you 3 more guesses as well ??

21th of June 2021 what will be worth one Bcash?
21th of June 2021 what will be worth one BSV?
Will CWS again try to prove he's Satoshi?

Thx in advance...



$33,333


Please can I ask you 3 more guesses as well ??

21th of June 2021 what will be worth one Bcash?
21th of June 2021 what will be worth one BSV?
Will CWS again try to prove he's Satoshi?

Thx in advance...

Better yet.. will CSW be out of jail on June 21, 2021?  That fuck.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 Cheesy Cheesy LOL, just deleted the post and repost it after the list update, excuse me Sir

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
theymos
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May 14, 2021, 10:35:10 PM
Merited by DdmrDdmr (3), cAPSLOCK (2), LoyceV (2), El duderino_ (2), philipma1957 (1), malevolent (1), ETFbitcoin (1), hosseinimr93 (1), friends1980 (1)
 #71

My ability to predict the price isn't great at the best of times, but I've been especially uncertain lately. There are strong bearish forces:
 - Institutional money cares a lot about ESG virtue signalling, and I think that the "Bitcoin is not ESG" meme will grow, though I'm not sure to what extent.
 - Any regulatory news is much more likely to be bad than good, and could be very bad. Even just pressure on eg. Robinhood to reduce the "gamification" of investing could hurt BTC to some extent.
 - BTC tends to be correlated with high-risk things (eg. TSLA shares), and these have been falling for a variety of reasons.
 - Interest rates may rise, which makes BTC less attractive because there's less easy money floating around, the far-future prospect of "BTC takes over the world" gets discounted to a lower present value, safer returns are possible elsewhere, etc.
 - A lot of the recent FOMO in all markets may have been due to people being stuck inside, going a bit crazy, with more time and money than usual. This is ending.
 - There's a ton of money held by old hodlers. A lot of these will be tempted to at least incrementally sell as the price goes higher, and they may especially be tempted to panic sell if one day they're a multi-millionaire and the next they're worried that they're going to lose everything due to a sharp price drop (ie. panic selling could cause a small correction to turn into a bloodbath). On top of that, there is an absolutely huge amount of unrealized capital gains held by US Bitcoiners who will want to realize these gains before any significant capital gains tax increases. In fact, Bitcoin is probably the single traded asset that you'd expect to be most affected by Biden's proposed capital gains tax increase. (I predict that the capital gains tax will increase to 30% for $1M+, non-retroactive: less than Biden's proposal, but still enough of an increase to make realizing your gains this year very attractive.)
 - A lot of the money in BTC is pure speculation: the kind of people who see absolutely no difference between DOGE and BTC, for example, and would be happy to pile onto anything that will get them to the moon ASAP. This money is easy-come, easy-go.
 
But there are also strong bullish forces:
 - Institutional money really wants to get into BTC, viewing it as a unique new asset class. This is only one small bullet point in my list, but the interest from large piles of money to shift some of it into BTC is immense.
 - Huge companies are now holding BTC and even accepting it for goods/services. If companies actually started trading in BTC instead of USD, that'd be extremely bullish.
 - Crypto trading is a large, integral component of retail trading now, to an extent that I think has not been fully realized by the market. Many people would rather give up stock trading than crypto trading, if they had to choose. Paypal, Robinhood, and even traditional brokerage firms will expand their BTC offerings. The more accessible BTC buying gets, the higher the price is likely to go.
 - The "interest rates" offered by eg. BlockFi are extremely attractive, and I think that more companies such as Robinhood will soon offer similar things.
 - There's clearly strong "buy the dip" support from somewhere, since it's seemed several times that the price wanted to crash, but it was stopped.
 - Even though I listed it as a possible bearish factor, I don't actually think that interest rates will move substantially higher. In fact, I could see the US entering something of a recession in fall due to a "hangover" from the ridiculous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Low growth = low rates and a search for growth in more speculative areas like BTC. And there's still an unbelievable amount of fiat floating around, looking for somewhere to go.
 - In addition to being viewed as an aggressive speculative asset, BTC can also be viewed as defensive: similar to gold, it's a hedge against the fiat world falling apart. The money-printing over the last year has made it plain to more and more people that fiat is a joke, and it's likely IMO that before the year is over there will be some serious problems with the fiat economy.

By the end of the year, both $25k and $100k are about equally believable IMO...



BTC has seemed pretty comfy in the $50k-$60k range. It tends to get pushed up rapidly whenever there are big drops. However, over the next few months I'm a little more fundamentally bearish than bullish, and technically I also get the sense that there's more downward pressure than upward pressure. IMO, until ~fall we're most likely to be going up and down in a wide range with a slight negative slope. Something like this (I realize that this is not proper technical analysis: I'm drawing the lines where they feel right to me, not based on proven support/resistance or any math):


For now there is upward pressure whenever it goes below $50k, but this could be fully broken by Jun 21. I guess $48,777.

1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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May 14, 2021, 11:04:55 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)
 #72

Interesting analysis, Theymos.  A lot rings true.  I still think we are looking at a very bullish last quarter this year, but I can't help nodding in agreement at the rough ride we'll have getting there.

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May 14, 2021, 11:11:33 PM
 #73

Interesting analysis, Theymos.  A lot rings true.  I still think we are looking at a very bullish last quarter this year, but I can't help nodding in agreement at the rough ride we'll have getting there.

I don't like giving Theymos a merit point for obvious reason he does not need them.  But it is very well thought out and reasonable set of numbers.

Especially doge = BTC and BTC = Doge concept as it is true to a lot of people.

If you are looking for a coin that is well backed by asics BTC is king but LTC/DOGE has a very solid power use base.

My partners develop solar fields in New Jersey and to act as a tool to make a larger solar array mining BTC is pretty much equal to LTC/DOGE.

So thanks again for the well thought post.
I also quoted curious as I agree with him.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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May 14, 2021, 11:22:03 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #74

47200

mostly agree with a nice post from Theymos. I also wrote something about price dynamics in WO.
47.2 could be a bounce up from the intermittent 42-43 low.
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May 14, 2021, 11:34:36 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #75

46,640



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May 15, 2021, 12:34:27 AM
 #76

$44,290

Thanks for hosting this game!

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May 15, 2021, 12:55:16 AM
 #77

$58,222  (my lucky number for...reasons)

Thanx dude! If I win again, I'll send you another custom medallion!  (and maybe buy some vocal lessons Wink )

Bitcoin...the future of all monetary transactions...and always will be
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May 15, 2021, 01:44:28 AM
 #78

A Fortuneteller told me that I would make a big fortune in the first half year of 2021. As I didn't , so this may be my last chance. Wink
I think over and over again, and $64321 is the bet.
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May 15, 2021, 03:45:01 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), DdmrDdmr (2), HeRetiK (1)
 #79

$60,424

Reason 0.077BTC



Analysis:

Ok guys i have put all my calculus, geometry, trigonometry, economics and math's knowledge into it and I spent well over one hour to process all the data and come to this price (source code also available on request if someone want to enhance, by source code i mean the excel sheet and notepad++).

I tried to used Guess 2/3 of the average, any one guessing $0 or $1 million by 21 Jun 2021 that will be rational. I can suppose that all the players are rational so it's based on the "common knowledge of rationality of all players".

Finally in school my math teacher told me "The weighted arithmetic mean is similar to an ordinary arithmetic mean (the most common type of average), except that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the final average, some data points contribute more than others. The notion of weighted mean plays a role in descriptive statistics and also occurs in a more general form in several other areas of mathematics."

ok done : $60,424

Note: 60 participants data thoroughly analyzed from somac. to proudhon, it's shocking how proudhon didn't predict zero and theymos with 9th lowest prediction.

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May 15, 2021, 08:21:36 AM
 #80

Update, please always check if you're on the list... also check if the price you wanna write down isn't already taken...

24,472  proudhon
33,333  sgbett
43,000  HeRetiK*
44,290  morvillz7z
46,640  sabotag3x*
47,200  Biodom*
48,377  xandry
48,520  Elwar*
48,777  theymos*
49,500  sheenshane*
50,000  Charles-Tim*
50,823  janggernaut*
51,770  bakasabo*
52,000  LoyceV
52,300  HairyMaclairy
52,469  acroman08
52,520  Woodie*
53,082  ETFbitcoin
53,333  icopress*
54,000  brokedummy
54,700  MoparMiningLLC*
55,000  bitebits*
55,500  jojo69
56,056  TopTort777
56,200  Arriemoller
56,230  Oasisman*
56,700  dothebeats*
57,452  weetious
58,133  Haunebu*
58,222  sirazimuth
58,500  LFC_Bitcoin*
58,820  kurious*
59,250  Krubster*
59,804  bitbollo
60,000  vapourminer
60,424  shahzadafzal*
61,767  DdmrDdmr*
62,220  Mbitr
63,800  DeathAngel*
64,321  smartcomet
65,000  AlcoHoDL
65,847  Dabs
66,666  soullyG
67,500  BitcoinBunny
68,000  2stout
69,420  SatsLife*
69,690  ChinkyEyes
70,000  philipma1957
70,500  Slot Kid
71,500  fillippone
72,239  cAPSLOCK*
72,400  Phil_S
72,555  OutOfMemory
73,155  d_eddie*
74,800  psycodad
75,800  friends1980*
77,500  Paashaas
77,777  JimboToronto
86,839  slaveforanunnak1
89,175  Yabes
100,000 somac.

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