Before Season Downtrend in 2018, What happened?

[Felimon]

The last 3 weeks of 2017 (from December 18, 2017 to 07.01.2018) when the BTC reached a 20k and was about 16k2 (down 14.3%).The decline value as the BTC evaporates $ 50.6 billion market capitalization, causing the ruling index of Bitcoin (Bitcoin Dominance - BTC.D) decreased from 59% to 39%.

It won't be worth mentioning if the crypto market decreases.But in this 3 weeks, he total total capitalization of Altcoin has nearly doubled; From 225 to $ 421.8 billion (up 196.7 billion respectively 87.4%).That time the Midcap Coin; LowCap steady increase. Although BTC decreases by 50.6 billion but the total market capitalization has increased by $ 146.2 billion (from 546.8 -> 693 billion, equivalent to 26.7%)
And season Downtrend began.From 08.01.2018 to December 17, 2017, value BTC evaporates 79.7% ,decrease from 16k2 to 3K3 / BTC.And the BTC Dominance after completing the final reduction in the 36.7% mark was restoration to 59.2% in December 2018.

BTC.D decreases while market capitalization increases is the conditions needed in the uptrend market and downtrend; DOM increases while total market capitalization decreases is sign downtrend stage.the end of 2018, the total market capitalized capital decreased by 86.4% from 692 billion to 93.9 billion.Total capitalized Altcoin decreased by 90.9% from 421.8 billion to only 38.3 billion.

Summary:If beginning of 2018, you have invested 10 billion in crypto, until the end of the year you only remain about 1-2 billion.
Back to the present, the last 6 weeks of BTC fluctuate across the price of 60k and now decreased by about 35% of the value, being traded at 37k. (Total capitalization of BTC decreased by $ 221 billion; 1,092 reduced to 871 billion). And BTC.D decreased from 60% to 41%.

This 6 weeks, the total capitalization Altcoin increased US $ 529.2 billion (from 723 to $ 1,252 billion; increased by 73.1%) to increase the total market capitalization increased by $ 307.6 billion (from 1,815 to 2,123 billion $; 17% respectively). Recently, ETH X2, EOS X2, NEO X2 ... quite like the 2017 scenario.

If look at the current W, BTC drops to 30k or deeper to 20k in the coming time, there is nothing unexpectedly. But this will be the adjustment or downtrend? The existing BTC.D index is as important as 2017-2018; What are the constituent elements of the current market compared to the past?

[JeromeTash]

What I recall is that the Journey to 20K, a record All-time high at during that bull run, was never a smooth one. There were corrections along the way so it's pretty hard to conclude if the current bull run has ended or not. I believe still have until the last quarter of this year to before we actually see a bear market. This is just my opinion based on what i witnessed in 2017/2018.

[dkbit98]

And BTC.D decreased from 60% to 41%

I even saw Bitcoin dominance going below 40% to around 37% on Coingecko website but now it started to go back up with currently holding around 44.7% and growing.

Not sure what will happen in future but we are never going to see mythical flippening some people would like to see and we are still holding the path for Bitcoin stock-to-flow model made by PlanB.
Sure, we can go even lower due to fud from all sources like Elon, China ban and new regulations, but look long term and remember that fiat printing machines are running non-stop, and prices for food and everything else are rising.

[apityeh71]

If we are back to 2016 and 2017 that for season of bull market, we have seen there the total of marketcap increased and growth until 100x for less than 2 years, but for currently of bull market, we can see the total market only increased about 20x from the bottom in 2020. So if we make analysis by the same percentace of marketcap growth, we can decide this bull season not over yet and the total of market cap should be increase to $10 trillion.

[pooya87]

Your whole arguments and the first 3 charts are wrong because market capitalization, specially when you are looking at the total including thousands of fake altcoin market caps, is pure nonsense.

As for what happened in 2018 you have to look at what happened from 2014 to 2017 in order to understand what happened in 2018. To put simply, bitcoin continued rising from $150 to $20,000 which is a 13,233% rise and at the end the price was higher than the intrinsic value of bitcoin, ergo bitcoin was in a big bubble that needed to burst and that's exactly what happened.
In case you are comparing it with 2021, bitcoin price has gone up from $3,200 to $62,000 which is a 1,833% rise. For things to be the same as 2017-18 we first have to reach $500k.
Altcoins and the total market cap is still irrelevant.

[UserU]

I even saw Bitcoin dominance going below 40% to around 37% on Coingecko website but now it started to go back up with currently holding around 44.7% and growing.

Not sure what will happen in future but we are never going to see mythical flippening some people would like to see and we are still holding the path for Bitcoin stock-to-flow model made by PlanB.
Sure, we can go even lower due to fud from all sources like Elon, China ban and new regulations, but look long term and remember that fiat printing machines are running non-stop, and prices for food and everything else are rising.

With coins slowly breaking away from the BTC pattern, it's a good sign. But trading-wise, there's gotta be more interpairs rather than linking them to BTC and ETH which is still a thing.

[tranthidung]

Your whole arguments and the first 3 charts are wrong because market capitalization, specially when you are looking at the total including thousands of fake altcoin market caps, is pure nonsense.

Dominance is non sense with hundreds of shit coins/ tokens are included recent months. With the period for hype, new projects are extremely over-valued and they contribute huge fake marketcap.

If anyone want to look at dominance and have ability to code, only add Bitcoin and 4-years⁺-old altcoins to marketcap and then dominance.

As for what happened in 2018 you have to look at what happened from 2014 to 2017 in order to understand what happened in 2018. To put simply, bitcoin continued rising from $150 to $20,000 which is a 13,233% rise and at the end the price was higher than the intrinsic value of bitcoin, ergo bitcoin was in a big bubble that needed to burst and that's exactly what happened.
In case you are comparing it with 2021, bitcoin price has gone up from $3,200 to $62,000 which is a 1,833% rise. For things to be the same as 2017-18 we first have to reach $500k.

Even if it is the end of the bull market, that I don't think it is a case yet. The market will give us a exit pump. Fortunately, at least exit pump will be available before the nightmare occurs. If anyone want to exit the market and miss the chance around $65k, there will be a second chance with exit pump.

Exit with profit will bring happiness but someday people will say "You're lucky because you bought Bitcoin under $100k".

[peter0425]

actually as far as i remember , the downtrend starts before the year ends around December 24-29? because the end days are the dumping moment and from the beginning of 2018 the market is already falling.

If we are back to 2016 and 2017 that for season of bull market, we have seen there the total of marketcap increased and growth until 100x for less than 2 years, but for currently of bull market, we can see the total market only increased about 20x from the bottom in 2020. So if we make analysis by the same percentace of marketcap growth, we can decide this bull season not over yet and the total of market cap should be increase to $10 trillion.

But one thing is surely here, and that is those days happened from the effect of every halving of Bitcoin.

[maydna]

If we are back to 2016 and 2017 that for season of bull market, we have seen there the total of marketcap increased and growth until 100x for less than 2 years, but for currently of bull market, we can see the total market only increased about 20x from the bottom in 2020. So if we make analysis by the same percentace of marketcap growth, we can decide this bull season not over yet and the total of market cap should be increase to $10 trillion.

But I still feel that the market will increase again, and this downtrend will be end soon. We don't know how long this downtrend will stay at the market, but we need to wait for a while, and perhaps, we need to prepare ourselves by buying more amounts and hold it. The market cap will increase, and I guess that can jump higher.

I think the bull run before is not yet end, and it can come back again after this bear market. So you need to have more patience and don't lose hope from the market.

[LUCKMCFLY]

In many analyzes they always point to a bearish trend, but how could we enter a bearish trend if we have not yet gone through a market Distribution stage? According to this analyst, he points to a bearish trend and gives an explanation:

According Benjamin Cowen said:

“Market cycle top may not come in 2021, likely later…”

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/analyst-when-weve-had-crosses-like-this-the-price-of-bitcoin-turned/

If eventually the graph can have analogies in the past, be it in 2013 or 2018, I think that the circumstances of 2021 are not comparable in the least to those years, I think that we are living in the market all new, there is only one pattern in the graph plus no fundamental trends.

[monineklutak]

what happened? of course before the downtrend everything disappeared, meaning the bulls have disappeared!,
then the bears come, whether this is coming the bears or the bulls are still holding on,
if you look at the pattern it looks like bearish will come, yes but I could be wrong, because bear traps can also happen

[GreatArkansas]

If look at the current W, BTC drops to 30k or deeper to 20k in the coming time, there is nothing unexpectedly. But this will be the adjustment or downtrend? The existing BTC.D index is as important as 2017-2018; What are the constituent elements of the current market compared to the past?

Looking at the 1D chart, we see that the uptrend has been broken. The very trend that started in October was broken on May 10:

https://i.ibb.co/tKz826y/Opera-2021-06-03-211650-ru-tradingview-com.png

Now there is a down trend + sideways movement. And it can last quite a long time. Unless, of course, there is some grandiose announcement from some large institution.

+1. From the huge dump lately around May 19-20, when Bitcoin dumped below $30,000 for a short period of time. A lot of charts become invalidated and the market structure changed in a short period of time, as we don't really expect the huge dump.
And most importantly is the monthly close of May 2021, which if you can see, it didn't closed above $40,000.

[adaseb]

For those of you who weren't around in 2018. What started the bear market was actually pretty similar to what caused it this time and it was a move by Vitalik. He basically heard of Bitconnect and how it pays 1% a day, and he tweeted that its a Ponzi. A few weeks later it went bust and people lost tons of money and were getting out of crypto all together. Its what topped Bitcoin and other cryptos.

Now a few weeks back the Doge clone coins were hogging the ETH network and Vitalik decided to send his 50% supply to the india Covid19 fund and its what caused the fees to go back down and "maybe" the price.

So not saying he started all of this on purpose but he seems to have a big effect on the crypto prices in general.

[pooya87]

For those of you who weren't around in 2018. What started the bear market was actually pretty similar to what caused it this time and it was a move by Vitalik. He basically heard of Bitconnect and how it pays 1% a day, and he tweeted that its a Ponzi.

You are joking right?
You just belittled the months of work and investigation of government agencies into Bitconnect scam and their court struggles into a random tweet by a scammer!
Not to mention that it had absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin price and its bear market. The bear market started when the bubble burst which was more than a month prior to Bitconnect's demise and the reason was simply the huge bubble that bitcoin was in. Just like the 3 or 4 previous times.

[el kaka22]

I would assume that alt season happened and then everything started to drop but it doesn't have to be the same way here neither. People are acting as if something is horrible going on right now but the reality is that we are not doing that bad, we are doing fine right now.

I understand that there is a good amount of disbelief in the current system because of how much we dropped but the reality is that we can drop as much as we want as long as it can recover there is no problem and we are seeing how it can recover right now, we didn't had these type of recovery in the 2018 period which means that it is not the same. I do not understand the love people have for trying to see what happened in the past and trying to find what could happen in the future by looking at it, you can't just predict the future by looking at the past, that is not the way to go about making money.

[slaman29]

what happened? of course before the downtrend everything disappeared, meaning the bulls have disappeared!,
then the bears come, whether this is coming the bears or the bulls are still holding on,
if you look at the pattern it looks like bearish will come, yes but I could be wrong, because bear traps can also happen

Actually, the bulls stuck around for a while as I recall, or rather, the shill bulls did. John McAfee remember, started charging people in 2017 and 2018 all the shit he did and he was still furiously pumping shitalts like Verge I remember very well, soon after Bitcoin had started to lose value after the almost 20k ATH.

[tranthidung]

Now there is a down trend + sideways movement. And it can last quite a long time.

I expect the crash for a long time and the sideway as well. In my opinion, the sideway will be warmed up around September.

From the huge dump lately around May 19-20, when Bitcoin dumped below $30,000 for a short period of time. A lot of charts become invalidated and the market structure changed in a short period of time, as we don't really expect the huge dump.
And most importantly is the monthly close of May 2021, which if you can see, it didn't closed above $40,000.

You are right but a reminder is "Chart is drawn by whales".

Yes, at 40 000 there is now enormous resistance. The market has already approached this mark 6-7 times and immediately fell down. I think there are orders from those who entered in April-May, but did not manage to get out during the fall, and now a large cascade of limit orders has formed there.

At right times per plans of whales, enormous resistances will be the points at which whales will kill shorters and compromise the liquidations to bring the price up as well as release their positive news.

If we manage to gnaw through this wall, then we can count on a price of 42 000 - 46 000. I think the next resistance will be around 46 000.

But how long we will be in the corridor 30800-40600 is still a big question for me. 

It is a challenging question but I think BTC will fall back to $33,400 to $34,000 at least during the next 7 days (shorter or longer a bit). It will rally after that and at the end of this month or early of July, it will move up to $46,000.

[Maslate]

I think we are now in the scenario we witnessed in 2018. The bull market is over, slowly the price is going down but there are still support as some think another wave of bull run is going to happen, however, I think they are wrong as bull run does not stay this long and whales made profit already.

This month going forward should be bearish, I know we have different opinions but the market seems to resist already and we are not seeing a bullish movement like we saw earlier this year.

[molsewid]

I think we are now in the scenario we witnessed in 2018. The bull market is over, slowly the price is going down but there are still support as some think another wave of bull run is going to happen, however, I think they are wrong as bull run does not stay this long and whales made profit already.

This month going forward should be bearish, I know we have different opinions but the market seems to resist already and we are not seeing a bullish movement like we saw earlier this year.

I'm afraid that we might going to witness the saturation of the crypto market again like what we've been witnessed that market crashed way back 3 years ago but it is currently happening. The market bull is over, bitcoins price which has a strong resistance at the value of $45k-$59k now dropped to below $40k, $36k to be exact. But I'd still felt that this is much better bear trend compare to the last 2018 bearish of crypto market, but I didn't know exactly if the bitcoins price will going to dropped to $10k or below but it's possible. I still clearly remember the way when the crypto market dropped that time, for me it's unexpected but expected coz I know how volatile crypto market is.