Is Bitcoin Naturally Defined By 4 Year Boom And Bust Cycles

[so98nn]

Isn't this is associated with the Bitcoin Halving process?

I mean whenever the halving occurs it reduces the miner fees and thus also gives out more prices (historic pattern). Not sure if this is to overcome the reduced fiat value to the reduced miner fees or something else. But considering the last cycles this is the definite case.

Last year we had same thing and I am pretty sure we will see it for the next cycle which is on 2024. (Near the time you mentioned).

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We really don't know if this is etch in stone though. The market is still fairly young to say that it is defined by a 4 year cycle. Although there's a lot of proponent of it, we might see some changes as we go along the way. We might see one super cycle, or two 3 year bull run, so it's early to say. And as we hit 20 million bitcoin mine in the next 2-3 halvings, things might be different.

[Gozie51]

2021  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

I will agree more to this if you say Elon musk tweet was part of the reason for the crash. IMO , the Chinese miners that were forced to shut down hard a major effect on transaction fees, it made the fees extremely high at the time. I remember the price at that time was still close to $60,000. I believe after Elon musk SNL show and tweeting against bitcoin electricity consumption, the fud was every where and soon after that the dumping started. That's my opinion on that.

[ven7net]

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.

Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?

I also adhere to this theory that the rise in the price of BTC and in the crypto market in general has a cyclical nature and each such cycle is 4 years. As for the next cycle, which ends in 2021, then I believe that the main growth will be at the end of 2021, as in 2017, and the drop that was a few days ago is a forced price drop in order to be able to prices go even higher. Based on the 4-year cycle theory, it can be assumed that the next cycle will begin at the beginning of 2022 and will also come to an end at the end of 2025. But how will it actually be, I'm sure we will see.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Until now I had seen that the BTC market behaves that way, because from 2014 to 2017 I saw that there was an accumulation stage, after 2018 to 2021, but we are not in the uptrend at all because due to the corrections we could be talking. about a sharp drop before a possible reaccumulation stage is generated, which is quite ingenious, in this market we have not had reaccumulation yet.

But since it can be said that the Accumulation stage usually lasts 3 years, it is likely that by the 4th year benefits will already be obtained, this is what also differs from the Stock Market, since in the Stock Market the important movements are usually every 8 to 10 years, this is why the BTC market is so superior to regret that it has no backing.

[acener]

Well if it would be a regular cycle of the price then it would really be best to HODL it and wait for every 4 years to hit a new ATH and sell,
Then wait for the price to drop down then buy back then wait again for 4 years.
Just like OP I also think that Bitcoin Halving is one of the reason why we experience this kind of cycle but the question is would it remain in this kind cycle? or would this be the last and it would create a new one?

[hannahB4]

I will not say bitcoin will be naturally Defined by the so-called 4-year boom and bust cycle I think this all happens to be coincidental at the interval you call it and for now many people are already in this market and technology are on the high side. More positive prospective investors will soon join the club so I don't think it will be after another four years before we see another ATH.

[dezoel]

Lol every year there is always going to be something bad that is going to happen and cause the price to crash (as people would believe). Funny enough they are always pointing hands at China every time there is a crash like this and all that. And as for whether there is going to be another time like this in the next four years?

Of course there is going to be another time like this in the four years that is coming and that’s because we are going to see another halving that is going to reduce supply and everything will now lead to another ATH price. I never expected it this year because of the coronavirus and also how the price plummeted earlier. So, if it’s going to happen at a time like this, it’s also going to happen again in the future no matter what.

[Silberman]

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.

Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?

So far this has been true and I think this is going to continue, there is a concept in trading called seasonal trading in which people trade some assets based on the time of the year, commodities like corn and even oil follow this pattern and bitcoin due to its halving creates an expectation that the price will go up in value after each halving, this generates more demand which generates an increase in the price making this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[michellee]

If so, we can expect to see the bitcoin price crash to the dip in the next 4 years and prepare for that. If we see the history, the bitcoin movements are almost the same, but the price always reaches the new ATH every 4 years, but that is not always guaranteed as the bitcoin price can move wild without knowing where it will go.

But with the popularity of bitcoin now, I think in the next 4 years or the future, the bitcoin movements will not be the same as many companies, people, or even the government can buy bitcoin so that it can make the moves will be different than the previous years. So we need always to be careful to decide and make sure we analyze the market before doing something.

[fillippone]

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

PlanB research cannot be unseen:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

If market realise stock to flow is being priced in, we will pass from a 4 year “boom and bust” cycle, to what Micheal Saylor calls a “supercycle”.

[sana54210]

2017  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

The 2017 fall didn't start because of bitfinex or USDT or anything related to that, in fact it was more of a helpful thing while people were going out, it would have been worse if people got out completely but they kept it in USDT and that was a bit of better thing, easier to get back in, still in crypto space.

The biggest start and problem of 2018 was the fact that mt.gox trustee started to sell tens of thousands of bitcoins and back in those days that was a lot of money, that started it and wasn't the only reason, but with that we dropped from 20k levels (by then dropped to 18 or so) to under 12k levels, after that we had a few more hacks in exchanges and also ICO's all scamming people, all these dropped it to about 7k levels with the bad momentum. Last draw was when Craig Wright sold tens of thousands of bitcoin to get mining power for taking over BCH and failed, that was really horrible.

[arallmuus]

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general

If market realise stock to flow is being priced in, we will pass from a 4 year “boom and bust” cycle, to what Micheal Saylor calls a “supercycle”.

I hope we do, 100k dream or 1 million dream. Any new ATH would be great

[fillippone]

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general

To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.

[arallmuus]

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-snip

To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.

Im not a firm believer of this Stock to Flow ratio model, well atleast not yet but to be honest it is really convincing. In fact this is my first time to read a detailed explanation about it from your thread. If this model is the holy grail of bitcoin then somewhere between today until 2024/2025, we might hit 100k ( or close to that )

I wonder what would be the driven factor for bitcoin demand if it wasnt for the pandemic

[MCobian]

Lol every year there is always going to be something bad that is going to happen and cause the price to crash (as people would believe). Funny enough they are always pointing hands at China every time there is a crash like this and all that. And as for whether there is going to be another time like this in the next four years?

Of course there is going to be another time like this in the four years that is coming and that’s because we are going to see another halving that is going to reduce supply and everything will now lead to another ATH price. I never expected it this year because of the coronavirus and also how the price plummeted earlier. So, if it’s going to happen at a time like this, it’s also going to happen again in the future no matter what.

Can't blame people who blame China for causing the market crash, because several times the Chinese government gave negative statements
regarding Bitcoin. Because even now the Chinese government has not been able to accept Bitcoin, so it is very natural that China is one of
the causes for the market crash. As long as the halving is still happening, I believe every 4 years there will be an increase in Bitcoin towards
the new ATH. So history will continue to repeat itself, therefore it is very important for us to prepare before the next halving occurs.
Because in my opinion the opportunity to make a large profit from Bitcoin after the halving happened. So from now on can collect Bitcoin,
so when the next halving occurs we already have quite a lot of Bitcoin.

[Xinarae*]

In fact the bitcoin market is not based on anyone if the demand is high the price goes up. The population of China was much higher in terms of crypto use the amount of its investment has decreased due to the sudden ban the government argued that it was protecting the population from cryptocurrency instability it also sought the power to regulate and tax transactions with cryptocurrencies. It is highly probable that the increased roadblocks in the use of cryptocurrencies by major us banks are driven at least in part with the us government expected to crackdown in the future.

[mamahdedeh]

In fact the bitcoin market is not based on anyone if the demand is high the price goes up. The population of China was much higher in terms of crypto use the amount of its investment has decreased due to the sudden ban the government argued that it was protecting the population from cryptocurrency instability it also sought the power to regulate and tax transactions with cryptocurrencies. It is highly probable that the increased roadblocks in the use of cryptocurrencies by major us banks are driven at least in part with the us government expected to crackdown in the future.

Bitcoin price is based purely like the laws of economics. and maybe this four yearly incident was just a coincidence. more than that, in fact Ellon and China previously gave negative statements which resulted in a decrease in the price of bitcoin, but I think it will rise again, along with increasing demand.

[NASdaq]

In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news

[dothebeats]

The sample size is still too small to call it at that. Though the intervals are already pretty obvious, I still think that it isn’t enough to satisfy the notion that most people have regarding bull run cycles. It’s a great observation, but certainly not enough evidence and figures to work from in order to call it something that is regular or an accepted pattern.